Miguel Centellas | University of Mississippi (original) (raw)
Peer-Reviewed Articles by Miguel Centellas
This paper discusses the recent autonomy movement in Santa Cruz, Bolivia, within a theoretical fr... more This paper discusses the recent autonomy movement in Santa Cruz, Bolivia, within a theoretical framework typically reserved for “ethnic” political or social movements. The paper begins with a brief chronology of the Santa Cruz autonomía movement as it developed into a powerful political oppositional movement during the rise of Evo Morales. In doing so, the movement’s leaders consciously adopted the organizational tactics and forms of discourse typically identified with traditional, indigenous-popular Bolivian social movements. As such, the Santa Cruz case both highlights the fluidity of multiculturalism and challenges our notions of how ethnic identity is publicly constructed.
The Latin Americanist, Mar 2015
Mixed-member electoral systems became a popular choice for “electoral engineers” in the 1990s. Co... more Mixed-member electoral systems became a popular choice for “electoral engineers” in the 1990s. Countries as diverse as Venezuela, Hungary, Lesotho, and Italy adopted the system. The assumption was that introducing single-member districts (SMDs) in countries that used list proportional representation electoral systems would introduce “constituency” oriented legislators who could be more easily held accountable to voters. This paper explores changes associated with the adoption of a mixed-member electoral system in Bolivia through a candidate-level analysis looking at differences in candidate profiles between two elections (1993 and 1997) and between two tiers (list and nominal). The paper relies on portion of a dataset (collected by the author) of Bolivian legislative candidates. The analysis shows mixed results: While SMD candidates were more likely to have municipal-level political experience, there was no significant difference in the kind of legislative committees list and SMD candidates had served in.
Utilizing hierarchical cluster analysis, a new measure of democracy, the DCC index, is proposed a... more Utilizing hierarchical cluster analysis, a new measure of democracy, the DCC index, is proposed and constructed from five popular indices of democracy (Freedom House, Polity IV, Vanahanen’s index of democratization, Cheibub et al.’s index of democracy and dictatorship, and the Cingranelli-Richards index of electoral self-determination). The DCC was used to classify the regime types for twenty-four countries in the Americas and thirty-nine countries in Europe over a thirty-year period. The results indicated that democracy is a latent class variable. Sensitivity and specificity analyses were conducted for the five existing democracy indices as well as the newly proposed Unified Democracy Scores index and a predicted DCC score. This analysis revealed significant problems with existing measures. Overall, the predicted DCC index attained the highest level of accuracy although one other index achieved high levels of accuracy in identifying nondemocracies.
This article examines the effectiveness of a collaborative group learning project for teaching a ... more This article examines the effectiveness of a collaborative group learning project for teaching a core competency in comparative politics: constitutional structures. We use a quasi-experimental design and propensity score matching to assess the value of a consti- tutional writing group project and presentation. The results provide strong evidence that these learning tools are highly valuable for teaching abstract concepts. Students who par- ticipated in the project scored significantly higher on a short series of questions in final exams given several weeks after the completion of the group project. Somewhat paradox- ically, the project increased competency but did not affect student self-reported interest in the subject matter. The challenges and improvements that can be made for the use these types of learning tools concludes the article.
Recent discussions of teaching research methods have focused on understand- ing the relationship ... more Recent discussions of teaching research methods have focused on understand- ing the relationship between methods courses and the broader discipline, including the need to integrate qualitative methods and other approaches beyond the traditional statis- tical approaches still common in the majority of undergraduate research methods courses. This article contributes to this conversation by arguing that the basic elements of research design and qualitative techniques should be integrated into substantive (or “non-methods”) courses across the discipline. To accomplish this aim, I offer a brief outline of methodolog- ical benchmark skills—drawn from the pool of skills necessary for a successful thesis—that can be taught in various courses across the discipline through a traditional assignment: the semester research paper.
The social forces that brought Evo Morales to power reshaped the dynamics of politics in Bolivia.... more The social forces that brought Evo Morales to power reshaped the dynamics of politics in Bolivia. Although partly driven by ethnic or socioeconomic differences, regional move- ments have support beyond a narrow elite base and reflect changes in Bolivia’s political landscape stemming from 1990s political reforms, older historical legacies, and recent political developments. The June 2008 election of Savina Cuéllar, an indigenous woman, as prefect of Chuquisaca highlights the complex and evolving nature of political identi- ties. Identities constructed on the basis of regional claims are as important as—and analytically distinct from—identities constructed on the basis of ethnicity or socioeco- nomic class and challenge our preconceptions of politics in contemporary Bolivia.
This article discusses the use of pop culture in the classroom as a means to teach foundational p... more This article discusses the use of pop culture in the classroom as a means to teach foundational political science authors and concepts. I focus on my experience using Amer- ican Idol as a point of reference to discuss Marx and Engel’s The Communist Manifesto and Tocqueville’s Democracy in America in undergraduate comparative politics courses. Stu- dents are asked to construct a written argument projecting Marx or Tocqueville’s percep- tions of American Idol, based on their readings. My experiences demonstrate that asking students to reflect on their own contemporary experience through the prism of these two works helps them in three ways: (1) to better understand the ideas of Marx and Tocque- ville, as well as their differences; (2) to develop an appreciation for the continued relevance of works in the discipline’s canon; and (3) to sharpen and develop critical thinking and analytical skills.
This research note considers the effects of electoral system reform in Bolivia. In 1995, Bolivia ... more This research note considers the effects of electoral system reform in Bolivia. In 1995, Bolivia moved from a list-proportional to a mixed- member proportional electoral system. The intervening years saw growing regional polarization of politics and a collapse of the existing party system. Using statistical analysis of disaggregated electoral data (at department, mu- nicipality, and district level), this paper tests whether electoral system re- forms may have contributed to the current political crisis. Research findings show that regional cleavages existed prior to electoral system reform, but suggest that reforms aggravated their effects. Such evidence gives reason to question the recent popularity of mixed-member proportionality.
Among the many shifts in Bolivian politics since October 2003 is a subtle, yet significant chang... more Among the many shifts in Bolivian politics since October 2003 is a subtle, yet significant change in the country's presidential system. Bolivia has recently transitioned from a "parliamentarized" to a "pure" presidentialism. In the previous system (1985-2002), Bolivian presidents were chosen by the legislature and led multiparty coalition governments. Since October 2003, Bolivia has instead been governed by two independent chief executives. This paper discusses the shift in presidential behavior by analyzing the similarities between Carlos Mesa and Evo Morales—who also fit the description of "delegative democrats" or "populists"—and their consequences for democratic stability (the lack of a constitutional "crisis"). It also considers potential reforms recently approved by the country's Constitutional Assembly and suggests that many of the benefits of "parliamentarized" presidentialism are still relevant for constitutional engineers.
Book Chapters by Miguel Centellas
Handbook of Latin American Studies, 2014
Latin America's Multicultural Movements: The Struggle Between Communitarianism, Autonomy, and Human Rights, 2013
Countries at the Crossroads 2011: A Summary of Democratic Governance, 2012
Invited Articles by Miguel Centellas
Data Sets by Miguel Centellas
Replication data for study of legislative candidate selection in Bolivia's 1993 and 1997 election... more Replication data for study of legislative candidate selection in Bolivia's 1993 and 1997 elections (forthcoming in The Latin Americanist).
This dataset contains ethnic fractionalization (EF) scores for Bolivia's municipalities. The orig... more This dataset contains ethnic fractionalization (EF) scores for Bolivia's municipalities. The original data comes from the 2001 Bolivia census, as published in "Bolivia: Atlas estadístico de municipios 2005" (INE/UNDP). EF values were calculated using the method described by Alesina et al (2003).
The 2001 Bolivian census asked individuals to identify themselves by their indigenous ethnic identity (if any). Respondents could answer "none" or give the name of one of the major indigenous groups: Quechua, Aymara, Guarani, Moxo ("mojeño"), Chuiquitano, or "other" indigenous people ("Originario Otro Nativo"). The dataset uses "other" as a residual category that adds up all specific categories (none, Quechua, Aymara, Guarani, Moxo, and Chiquitano) and subtracts it from one.
Please cite this as: Centellas, Miguel. 2015. "Bolivia Municipal Ethnic Fractionalization (2001)." Harvard Dataverse Network. http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/28931
This paper discusses the recent autonomy movement in Santa Cruz, Bolivia, within a theoretical fr... more This paper discusses the recent autonomy movement in Santa Cruz, Bolivia, within a theoretical framework typically reserved for “ethnic” political or social movements. The paper begins with a brief chronology of the Santa Cruz autonomía movement as it developed into a powerful political oppositional movement during the rise of Evo Morales. In doing so, the movement’s leaders consciously adopted the organizational tactics and forms of discourse typically identified with traditional, indigenous-popular Bolivian social movements. As such, the Santa Cruz case both highlights the fluidity of multiculturalism and challenges our notions of how ethnic identity is publicly constructed.
The Latin Americanist, Mar 2015
Mixed-member electoral systems became a popular choice for “electoral engineers” in the 1990s. Co... more Mixed-member electoral systems became a popular choice for “electoral engineers” in the 1990s. Countries as diverse as Venezuela, Hungary, Lesotho, and Italy adopted the system. The assumption was that introducing single-member districts (SMDs) in countries that used list proportional representation electoral systems would introduce “constituency” oriented legislators who could be more easily held accountable to voters. This paper explores changes associated with the adoption of a mixed-member electoral system in Bolivia through a candidate-level analysis looking at differences in candidate profiles between two elections (1993 and 1997) and between two tiers (list and nominal). The paper relies on portion of a dataset (collected by the author) of Bolivian legislative candidates. The analysis shows mixed results: While SMD candidates were more likely to have municipal-level political experience, there was no significant difference in the kind of legislative committees list and SMD candidates had served in.
Utilizing hierarchical cluster analysis, a new measure of democracy, the DCC index, is proposed a... more Utilizing hierarchical cluster analysis, a new measure of democracy, the DCC index, is proposed and constructed from five popular indices of democracy (Freedom House, Polity IV, Vanahanen’s index of democratization, Cheibub et al.’s index of democracy and dictatorship, and the Cingranelli-Richards index of electoral self-determination). The DCC was used to classify the regime types for twenty-four countries in the Americas and thirty-nine countries in Europe over a thirty-year period. The results indicated that democracy is a latent class variable. Sensitivity and specificity analyses were conducted for the five existing democracy indices as well as the newly proposed Unified Democracy Scores index and a predicted DCC score. This analysis revealed significant problems with existing measures. Overall, the predicted DCC index attained the highest level of accuracy although one other index achieved high levels of accuracy in identifying nondemocracies.
This article examines the effectiveness of a collaborative group learning project for teaching a ... more This article examines the effectiveness of a collaborative group learning project for teaching a core competency in comparative politics: constitutional structures. We use a quasi-experimental design and propensity score matching to assess the value of a consti- tutional writing group project and presentation. The results provide strong evidence that these learning tools are highly valuable for teaching abstract concepts. Students who par- ticipated in the project scored significantly higher on a short series of questions in final exams given several weeks after the completion of the group project. Somewhat paradox- ically, the project increased competency but did not affect student self-reported interest in the subject matter. The challenges and improvements that can be made for the use these types of learning tools concludes the article.
Recent discussions of teaching research methods have focused on understand- ing the relationship ... more Recent discussions of teaching research methods have focused on understand- ing the relationship between methods courses and the broader discipline, including the need to integrate qualitative methods and other approaches beyond the traditional statis- tical approaches still common in the majority of undergraduate research methods courses. This article contributes to this conversation by arguing that the basic elements of research design and qualitative techniques should be integrated into substantive (or “non-methods”) courses across the discipline. To accomplish this aim, I offer a brief outline of methodolog- ical benchmark skills—drawn from the pool of skills necessary for a successful thesis—that can be taught in various courses across the discipline through a traditional assignment: the semester research paper.
The social forces that brought Evo Morales to power reshaped the dynamics of politics in Bolivia.... more The social forces that brought Evo Morales to power reshaped the dynamics of politics in Bolivia. Although partly driven by ethnic or socioeconomic differences, regional move- ments have support beyond a narrow elite base and reflect changes in Bolivia’s political landscape stemming from 1990s political reforms, older historical legacies, and recent political developments. The June 2008 election of Savina Cuéllar, an indigenous woman, as prefect of Chuquisaca highlights the complex and evolving nature of political identi- ties. Identities constructed on the basis of regional claims are as important as—and analytically distinct from—identities constructed on the basis of ethnicity or socioeco- nomic class and challenge our preconceptions of politics in contemporary Bolivia.
This article discusses the use of pop culture in the classroom as a means to teach foundational p... more This article discusses the use of pop culture in the classroom as a means to teach foundational political science authors and concepts. I focus on my experience using Amer- ican Idol as a point of reference to discuss Marx and Engel’s The Communist Manifesto and Tocqueville’s Democracy in America in undergraduate comparative politics courses. Stu- dents are asked to construct a written argument projecting Marx or Tocqueville’s percep- tions of American Idol, based on their readings. My experiences demonstrate that asking students to reflect on their own contemporary experience through the prism of these two works helps them in three ways: (1) to better understand the ideas of Marx and Tocque- ville, as well as their differences; (2) to develop an appreciation for the continued relevance of works in the discipline’s canon; and (3) to sharpen and develop critical thinking and analytical skills.
This research note considers the effects of electoral system reform in Bolivia. In 1995, Bolivia ... more This research note considers the effects of electoral system reform in Bolivia. In 1995, Bolivia moved from a list-proportional to a mixed- member proportional electoral system. The intervening years saw growing regional polarization of politics and a collapse of the existing party system. Using statistical analysis of disaggregated electoral data (at department, mu- nicipality, and district level), this paper tests whether electoral system re- forms may have contributed to the current political crisis. Research findings show that regional cleavages existed prior to electoral system reform, but suggest that reforms aggravated their effects. Such evidence gives reason to question the recent popularity of mixed-member proportionality.
Among the many shifts in Bolivian politics since October 2003 is a subtle, yet significant chang... more Among the many shifts in Bolivian politics since October 2003 is a subtle, yet significant change in the country's presidential system. Bolivia has recently transitioned from a "parliamentarized" to a "pure" presidentialism. In the previous system (1985-2002), Bolivian presidents were chosen by the legislature and led multiparty coalition governments. Since October 2003, Bolivia has instead been governed by two independent chief executives. This paper discusses the shift in presidential behavior by analyzing the similarities between Carlos Mesa and Evo Morales—who also fit the description of "delegative democrats" or "populists"—and their consequences for democratic stability (the lack of a constitutional "crisis"). It also considers potential reforms recently approved by the country's Constitutional Assembly and suggests that many of the benefits of "parliamentarized" presidentialism are still relevant for constitutional engineers.
Handbook of Latin American Studies, 2014
Latin America's Multicultural Movements: The Struggle Between Communitarianism, Autonomy, and Human Rights, 2013
Countries at the Crossroads 2011: A Summary of Democratic Governance, 2012
Replication data for study of legislative candidate selection in Bolivia's 1993 and 1997 election... more Replication data for study of legislative candidate selection in Bolivia's 1993 and 1997 elections (forthcoming in The Latin Americanist).
This dataset contains ethnic fractionalization (EF) scores for Bolivia's municipalities. The orig... more This dataset contains ethnic fractionalization (EF) scores for Bolivia's municipalities. The original data comes from the 2001 Bolivia census, as published in "Bolivia: Atlas estadístico de municipios 2005" (INE/UNDP). EF values were calculated using the method described by Alesina et al (2003).
The 2001 Bolivian census asked individuals to identify themselves by their indigenous ethnic identity (if any). Respondents could answer "none" or give the name of one of the major indigenous groups: Quechua, Aymara, Guarani, Moxo ("mojeño"), Chuiquitano, or "other" indigenous people ("Originario Otro Nativo"). The dataset uses "other" as a residual category that adds up all specific categories (none, Quechua, Aymara, Guarani, Moxo, and Chiquitano) and subtracts it from one.
Please cite this as: Centellas, Miguel. 2015. "Bolivia Municipal Ethnic Fractionalization (2001)." Harvard Dataverse Network. http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/28931
Flavia Freidenberg and Julieta Suárez-Cao, eds., Territorio y poder: nuevos actores y competencia... more Flavia Freidenberg and Julieta Suárez-Cao, eds., Territorio y poder: nuevos actores y competencia política en los sistemas de partidos multinivel en América Latina. Salamanca: Ediciones Universidad de Salamanca, 2014. Tables, figures, bibliography, appendix, 386 pp.; paperback.
Americas Quarterly Online, Apr 8, 2010
Americas Quarterly Online, Dec 15, 2009
This paper re-examines the conventional view of Chile’s ‘exceptional’ experience with democracy i... more This paper re-examines the conventional view of Chile’s ‘exceptional’ experience with democracy in the early twentieth century in comparison to its Southern Cone neighbors. Using quantitative measures typically used to study contemporary electoral politics—and bolstered by qualitative historical evidence—we find that Uruguay (not Chile) holds a better claim to a stable democratic experience during the twentieth century. We believe this reassessment has important pedagogical implications, in addition to helping contemporary political studies better understand challenges facing contemporary Chilean democracy.
This paper examines whether competing an introductory-level political science course affects stud... more This paper examines whether competing an introductory-level political science course affects student political efficacy with panel survey data from a flagship public university. We found that completing an introductory-level course had little impact on internal political efficacy, when controlling for other factors. However, we found an important racial divide on external political efficacy, with black students less likely to believe they could influence political decisions by end of semester. This raises questions about the “civic” function of the undergraduate political science curriculum—particularly regarding racial political inequalities.
Since the 2005 election of Evo Morales, Bolivia's first self-identified indigenous president, obs... more Since the 2005 election of Evo Morales, Bolivia's first self-identified indigenous president, observers have suggested that the success of Morales and his MAS party was due to their appeal to Bolivia's historically underrepresented indigenous population. However, recent electoral setbacks for MAS invite us to reconsider. Although MAS remained the dominant party in Bolivia's electoral landscape, loses and competitive challenges in previous strongholds suggest a loosening of " ethnic " voting. This paper analyzes national and municipal elections since 2005, municipal-level census data to explore the relationship between ethnic self-identification and voting in Bolivia. In particular, this paper will look at ethnic composition in municipalities along two dimensions: the specific makeup of indigenous identities in a municipality, and the amount of ethnic diversity in a municipality using a measure of " ethnic fractionalization. " The paper analyzes differences in " ethnic voting " for MAS over time across different ethnic communities, as well as tests whether MAS performed better or worse in municipalities with higher or lower degrees of ethnic pluralism.
Measuring level and/or quality of democracy has become common in democracy studies. However, most... more Measuring level and/or quality of democracy has become common in democracy studies. However, most measures continue to rely on expert assessments and coding, rather than objective criteria that can be easily applied across a wide range of cases. Moreover, existing measures are time and labor intensive, which limits them to national-level application. This paper proposes an empirical measure of at least one dimension of democracy—competitiveness—derived entirely from objective data: party legislative seat shares. Using data covering most countries in the Americas, this paper measures “democratic competiveness” using an equation based on party seat shares and the composition of government and opposition forces across the 20th century. The measure is then assessed for external validity by comparing it to the Polity index. Doing so, this paper makes two contributions: First, it offers a new measure of an important dimension of democracy that can be easily applied at any level—including subnational politics. Second, it produces a new dataset that assesses “democratic competiveness” in the Americas that extends to historical periods not often covered in contemporary measures of democracy, such as Freedom House or V-DEM.
Mixed-member electoral systems became a popular choice for “electoral engineers” in the 1990s. C... more Mixed-member electoral systems became a popular choice for “electoral
engineers” in the 1990s. Countries as diverse as Venezuela, Hungary, Lesotho, and Italy adopted the system. The assumption was that introducing single- member districts (SMDs) in countries that used list proportional representation electoral systems would introduce “constituency” oriented legislators who could be more easily held accountable to voters. This paper explores any changes associated with the adoption of a mixed-member electoral system in Bolivia. It does so through a candidate-level analysis looking at differences in candidate profiles between two elections (1993 and 1997) and between two tiers (list and nominal) in the post-reform election (1997). The paper relies on portion of a dataset (collected by the author) of Bolivian legislative candidate characteristics. The paper hypothesizes that parties should nominate candidates with strong local attachments and/or track records of addressing or delivering public goods (or “pork”) to local constituencies.
This paper analyzes the contentious April 2010 public university elections for Rector and Vice Re... more This paper analyzes the contentious April 2010 public university elections for Rector and Vice Rector at the Universidad Mayor de San Andrés (UMSA) in Bolivia. University elections are especially politically significant in countries like Bolivia, in which public universities have constitutionally protected autonomy and have often served as bastions of political opposition. Using quantitative and qualitative techniques, we describe and analyze how Bolivia’s university elections interact with national and subnational politics. Looking at the three most recent rectorate elections (2004, 2007, 2010), we measure electoral volatility, party system stability, and partisan alignments within university elections. We combine this with long-term fieldwork and content analysis of newspaper coverage of each election to show how university electoral politics were reshaped after the 2005 victory of Evo Morales and his MAS party,. We argue that studies of electoral politics in settings such as universities, unions, or civic associations offer insights how key constituencies interact with hegemonic parties.
Since 2005 election of Evo Morales, Bolivia has been undergoing an unprecedented process of refor... more Since 2005 election of Evo Morales, Bolivia has been undergoing an unprecedented process of reforms aimed at increasing citizens’ direct access to political power. Among the reforms is the 2011 direct election of high court justices—a first among contemporary democracies. This paper analyzes the results of that unique election. Unlike partisan elections, candidates (who were pre-selected by the legislature) were not allowed to campaign and media coverage of candidates was highly restricted. Instead, the country’s electoral organ was charged with disseminating information about the candidates as part of its mission to educate voters about the judicial elections. Lower-than-average voter turnout (79.6 percent) and record high blank and null votes (valid votes were only 42.1 percent of votes cast) make it difficult to determine on what basis voters chose candidates. Instead, this paper focuses on determining the likelihood of candidates winning, based on biographical descriptors. Using qualitative comparative analysis (QCA), we determine the likelihood of a candidate’s victory based on the candidates’ coded biographical information.
Although there has been an increase in attention to Latin American legislatures, there is still r... more Although there has been an increase in attention to Latin American legislatures, there is still relatively little known about legislative candidate selection—particularly in countries that have undergone significant institutional reforms. This paper presents evidence from the Bolivian case based on a new database of Bolivian legislative candidates (part of a larger database collected for a cross-national study of legislative candidate selection through a multiyear research project funded by the National Science Foundation). Bolivia is an interesting case, because it is one of the few Latin American countries to significantly alter its electoral system (moving from list-PR to MMP) during a democratic period. Additionally, Bolivia simultaneously implemented an ambitious political decentralization process. Using biographical data collected on legislative candidates (winners and losers), the paper studies the observed effects in changes in candidate recruitment across time—with a focus on pre- and post-reform period. In addition to common indicators (age, gender, profession or sectoral association, etc.), the paper focuses on three key candidate dimensions: “localness” (connection to electoral district), “partisanship” (experience within party leadership), and “portfolio” (experience in legislative committees or government ministries). An exploration of the data allows us to test some corollaries of Duverger’s Law: For example, after moving from strict list-PR to a system with plurality single-member districts, we expect an increase in candidates with stronger “localness” indicators concentrated in the plurality SMD tier and candidates with stronger “partisan” indicators concentrated in the list-PR tier.
In 2009, Bolivia adopted a new constitution that grants significant political autonomy to the cou... more In 2009, Bolivia adopted a new constitution that grants significant political autonomy to the country’s nine departments. The creation of nine autonomous departmental governments with elected executives (governors) and legislatures (departmental assemblies) represents a radical departure from the traditional unitary state model. This raises a number of empirical and theoretical questions about the relationship between national- and department-level institutions in the context of a devolving and democratizing state—particularly one with a hegemonic government party facing regionally concentrated opposition. This paper is a preliminary, and primarily descriptive, exploration of how parties in decentralized, devolved, or “federalized” states operate simultaneously in two distinct electoral arenas, and that their relative position in each arena informs their behavior. The paper looks at the national-level party system and electoral competition as only one key dimension (rather than assuming department-level party systems simply replicate national-level party dynamics), and treats each department as a unique “system” with its own evolving dynamic. It contributes to our understanding of how political parties compete and organize themselves in decentralized or federal states.
This paper revisits the challenge of empirically measuring the quality of democracy in Latin Amer... more This paper revisits the challenge of empirically measuring the quality of democracy in Latin America in the wake of the region’s ‘left turn’ since the 1990s and the rise of classic populist leaders in several countries. Building on an earlier effort by David Altman and Aníbal Pérez-Liñán to measure the quality of democracy, this paper develops a revised measure of effective competition. The paper develops this new measure through an exploratory assessment of nine key cases. The paper then tests the validity of this measure against the Freedom House index, a widely accepted assessment of the quality of democracy. Finally, the paper then measures the nine cases, at various points in time, along two dimensions consistent with Robert Dahl’s understanding of polyarchy: effective competition and effective participation (based on the author’s previous work).
Bolivia’s political system has recently undergone a dramatic transformation after nearly two deca... more Bolivia’s political system has recently undergone a dramatic transformation after nearly two decades dominated by three “systemic” parties (MNR, ADN, MIR). Despite resisting challenges from “outsiders” (whether populists, leftists, or indigenous movements) for nearly two decades, the party system was quickly swept away after the “gas war” of October 2003. In its place, the new political landscape appears polarized into two distinct camps: Evo Morales’s MAS and an opposition led by PODEMOS. This paper offers a preliminary exploratory look at Bolivia’s most recent political transformation, looking particularly at the migration patterns of Bolivian career politicians between the 2002 and 2005 general elections.
The Bolivian state’s crisis of legitimacy was not resolved with the December 2005 election of Evo... more The Bolivian state’s crisis of legitimacy was not resolved with the December 2005 election of Evo Morales. The July 2006 constituent assembly elections promised to reestablish a new basis of state legitimacy. This paper analyzes the constituent assembly election itself and provides a brief critical evaluation of that body’s progress since its August 2006 inauguration. This paper also places the election in historical and political perspective and pays particular attention to the country’s recent regional polarization. Finally, this paper also contributes to expanding the literature on “institutional engineering” as means to establish a political social contract.
The democratization of Bolivia presented an interesting paradox in the 1990s. As the state conti... more The democratization of Bolivia presented an interesting paradox in the 1990s. As the
state continued to promote a liberal-pluralist orientation in public civic life, various social movements presented alternate modes of understanding “citizenship” in the new state. The result has been a series of political and social conflicts that can be understood as disagreements over the national question. In short, this paper explores the relationship between democratization and the process by which national (and subnational) communities are reinvented in the public sphere.
This paper considers the effects of the change in Bolivia’s electoral system from list proportion... more This paper considers the effects of the change in Bolivia’s electoral system from list proportional (list-PR) to mixed-member proportional (MMP). One of the most noticeable effects of the 1994 change was increased regionalization and party system fragmentation. Prior to the change, Bolivi- an politics revolved around a stable, moderate multiparty system organized around two blocks (MNR and ADN-MIR). In the two elections following the change to MMP, the country’s electoral system has fragmented, clustering around regionally entrenched, antagonistic parties. Using statis- tical analysis of disaggregate electoral data from the country’s five elections (three prior to MMP, two after MMP), this paper argues that the change to MMP increased the importance of regional cleavages, and argues that this was a contributing factor to the dramatic overthrow of then- president Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada in October 2003. Such a finding gives reason to question the recent popularity of MMP by the discipline’s electoral engineers. While regional differences existed throughout Bolivia’s democratic experience, these were strengthened and polarized after the change to MMP.
This paper compares the evolution of party systems in Bolivia, Ecuador, and Peru. Since democrati... more This paper compares the evolution of party systems in Bolivia, Ecuador, and Peru. Since democratization, these three party systems have taken divergent turns. The relationship between electoral and party systems is important and complex, especially in newly democratic systems. If representative democracy requires political parties, then the ability of new electoral systems to strengthen party systems is crucial for democratic consolidation. This paper argues that political development in Bolivia, Ecuador, and Peru since democratization can be explained by contrasting their different electoral systems.
The Bolivian executive is selected by the legislature, moving the nominally presidential system c... more The Bolivian executive is selected by the legislature, moving the nominally presidential system closer to a parliamentary model. Reinforced by the electoral and party systems, the model differs significantly from the “hybrid presidential” model. A better understanding of this model sheds light not only on the role of institutional design in new democracies, but also calls into question some of the assumptions drawn from the traditional dichotomy between presidential and parliamentary systems.
This paper analyzes the Bolivian model of executive-legislative relations within the context of f... more This paper analyzes the Bolivian model of executive-legislative relations within the context of formal and informal institutions. Since its transition to democracy, the Bolivian executive has been selected by the legislature, moving the officially presidential system closer to a parliamentary model. Reinforced by the electoral and party systems, the model is significantly different from the “hybrid presidential” model (which has separate heads of state and government) and contains its own internal logic. A better understanding of this institutional arrangement and its consequences for democratic consolidation sheds light not only on the role of institutional design in new democracies, but also calls into question some of the assumptions drawn from the traditional dichotomy between presidential and parliamentary systems.
This paper measures the degree of polyarchy in five South American states (Bolivia, Colombia, Ecu... more This paper measures the degree of polyarchy in five South American states (Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Venezuela) since 1978 using a model developed by Altman and Pérez-Liñán (1999) and Centellas (1999). The model measures polyarchy in the electoral process along two axes: participation and competition. Our model follows Dahl’s basic premise that polyarchy requires high levels of both effective participation and political competition within a context of civil and political liberties. Effective participation is a function of voter turnout, modified to account for null/blank votes and votes for parties not elected to the legislature. Effective competition is a function of the relative balance between government and opposition forces in the legislature. These measures should complement qualitative assessments of the progress of polyarchy in these five states and coincide with observed reality.
Bolivia’s decentralization under the 1994 Ley de Participación Popular (LPP) cannot be characteri... more Bolivia’s decentralization under the 1994 Ley de Participación Popular (LPP) cannot be characterized as federalism or administrative decentralization. The Bolivian model demonstrates the importance of ideological discourse and the role of decentralization in democratization. The ideological and historical roots of Bolivia’s state decentralization explain its divergence from other decentralization strategies. Bolivia’s LPP includes citi- zen-initiated Organizaciones Territoriales de Base (OTB) which provide communal democratic control over municipal governments. This unique strategy makes Bolivia a possible case for emulation among other decentralizing (and democratizing) regimes.
This paper measures the process of democratization in Bolivia from 1985 to 1998 using polyarchy a... more This paper measures the process of democratization in Bolivia from 1985 to 1998 using polyarchy as an operational definition of democracy. This quality of democracy is measured using a model developed by Altman and Pérez-Liñán (1998) which considers effective opposition and effective competition in a political system. Bolivia has elected four governments since 1985. This paper measures each regime for the quality of its democracy using the Altman and Pérez-Liñán varia-bles. Bolivia’s political system is unique in that it rests on a semi-presidential, semi-parliamentary system while its constitution provides for institutionalized inter-party, postelectoral bargaining. The paper uses quantitative measurements of the quality of Bolivian democracy to discuss and ex-plain the ongoing democratization process. Since 1985, Bolivian democracy has consolidated as it moved from a fragmented to a moderated political system. The political system is now stable and firmly planted while allowing flexibility along the party-coalition dimension.
This is a short handbook I wrote specifically for a research methods course I teach during a summ... more This is a short handbook I wrote specifically for a research methods course I teach during a summer study-abroad program in Bolivia. It's a synthesis of several other methods books I've used over the years, as well as some additional material I wish methods textbooks included. It's written for students with access to Excel, but no specialized statistical software.
This module provides a historical discussion of issues of race and inclusion in comparative persp... more This module provides a historical discussion of issues of race and inclusion in comparative perspective, looking at Brazil, South Africa, and the United States. The module also asks students to use social data to comparatively analyze the three cases. It then also focuses on affirmative action reforms in Brazilian higher education.
This module provides a definition and overview of the concept "welfare state" and comparative dat... more This module provides a definition and overview of the concept "welfare state" and comparative data from the US and six other advanced industrial democracies. Turning to a focus on the Scandinavian model, the exercise asks students to listen to two short audio podcasts a about the Danish welfare state from NPR's Planet Money. The exercise tests students conceptual and critical thinking abilities, as well as their ability to use data to conduct their own analysis.
This module provides a definition of the state and an exercise that asks students to look at the ... more This module provides a definition of the state and an exercise that asks students to look at the Failed States Index. The exercise tests students conceptual and critical thinking abilities, as well as their ability to use data to conduct their own analysis.
This module provides context and guidelines for a Security Council simulation involving a conflic... more This module provides context and guidelines for a Security Council simulation involving a conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, situated in the Caucasus Mountains. The simulation is meant to help students understand the United Nations Security Council, as well as offer a chance go practice and develop various other skills: critical thinking, problem-solving, public speaking, writing, research, and collaboration.
This module introduces students to two foundational political theorists: Karl Marx and Alexis de ... more This module introduces students to two foundational political theorists: Karl Marx and Alexis de Tocqueville. In addition to exposing students to short primary texts from each author and assessing students’ understanding of the material, the module asks students to critically apply those ideas to contemporary life through a pop culture lens.
Israeli Arab political parties are observed to determine if these ethnic political parties are su... more Israeli Arab political parties are observed to determine if these ethnic political parties are successful in Israel. A brief explanation of four Israeli Arab political parties, Hadash, Arab Democratic Party, Balad, and United Arab List, is given as well as a brief description of Israeli history and the Israeli political system. The total performance as well as individual party performances is compared to the percentage of Israeli Arabs in Israeli society in order to determine that overall Israeli Arab political parties are not successful, although there are nuances to the term of success that the parties achieve.
The Struggle Between Communitarianism, Autonomy, and Human Rights, 2013
centellas.org
This study places Bolivia in comparative perspective and seeks to explain the country's unexpecte... more This study places Bolivia in comparative perspective and seeks to explain the country's unexpected two decades of democratic stability. Four potential explanations are pursued: 1) Bolivia's political institutional structure, 2) historical legacies, 3) the role of individual statesmen, and 4) the role of a patrimonial political elite. If Bolivia's democratic stability is best explained by its unique institutional arrangement of "parliamentarized presidentialism," then this would contribute to our general theoretical understanding of democracy and democratic consolidation.
ABSTRACT We conducted a survey of the student population enrolled in undergraduate introductory-l... more ABSTRACT We conducted a survey of the student population enrolled in undergraduate introductory-level courses in political science at a large public university. We were interested to test whether completing undergraduate introductory-level courses in political science had any effects on political efficacy, using some standard indicators (drawn from the ANES battery), at the individual level. Our findings suggest that earning a high grade (when controlling for various other factors) does seem to positively affect internal political efficacy at the individual level, but that the most important factor affecting external political efficacy is the number of courses completed. However, we found no evidence that completing any undergraduate introductory-level course in political science had any affect on whether students believed that they were capable of understanding politics.
... autonomy. Juan Carlos Urenda, one of the principal architects of that strategy, suggests that... more ... autonomy. Juan Carlos Urenda, one of the principal architects of that strategy, suggests that this cabildo had had an immediate effect, since President Mesa that same day issued a decree (DS 27988) that allowed for prefects to be elected by popular vote (Urenda 2009, 18). ...
PS: Political Science & Politics, 2010
... 6. An alternative approach, which I will test next semester, is to assign both read-ings duri... more ... 6. An alternative approach, which I will test next semester, is to assign both read-ings during the same week. This schedule may allow for a more direct dialogue between Marx andTocqueville. REFERENCES Beavers, Staci L. 2002. ... O'Connor, John E. 1987. ...