Alison Johnston | Oregon State University (original) (raw)

Papers by Alison Johnston

Education Economics, 2022

Public higher education is chronically under-funded in developing countries, making private inves... more Public higher education is chronically under-funded in developing countries, making private investment necessary for human capital development. We investigate if information provision mobilizes support for private investment in public higher education by employing an online RCT in Afghanistan. We find that information cues impact respondents’ support for how education should be financed. Respondents that received information about the current amount of funding devoted to different levels of education (including tuition amounts for private tertiary programs), became more partial to prioritizing public funding for primary and secondary education over tertiary education but also became more supportive of tuition introduction in public universities.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2015

Growth and Welfare in Advanced Capitalist Economies, 2021

Wages and wage bargaining institutions are foundational components of comparative capitalism rese... more Wages and wage bargaining institutions are foundational components of comparative capitalism research. Supply-side comparative capitalism research has often assumed that wage moderation – facilitated through highly coordinated wage-setting institutions – produces beneficial growth outcomes. This supposition stems from the logic that restrained unit labor cost growth causes firms to increase employment and output. However, through its demand-side perspective, new growth model literature questions the virtues of wage moderation, because the restraint of wages can be detrimental to growth via its suppression of domestic consumption. This chapter empirically tests under what conditions will wage moderation produce economic growth. Using a first-difference, distributive lag panel analysis of 18 OECD countries from 1970 to 2015, its findings largely resonate with predictions within the growth model literature. In the presence of wage restraint, countries with larger export shares and highly coordinated wage-setting institutions realize higher growth and lower unemployment than countries with smaller export shares and uncoordinated wage-setting institutions. In contrast, wage inflation produces better growth outcomes for countries with uncoordinated wage setting, relative to those with highly coordinated wage-setting institutions. These results suggest that wage restraint is not a winning strategy for all growth models. Rather, wage moderation is associated with better growth (and unemployment) outcomes only for countries with export-facing growth strategies.

Review of International Political Economy, 2020

Household mortgage debt unleashed devastating consequences for the global economy in 2007–2008. D... more Household mortgage debt unleashed devastating consequences for the global economy in 2007–2008. Despite the growing importance of household debt in financial markets, international political economy and comparative political economy have not theorized why it varies so much across Europe. We argue that variation in household debt can be explained by the intersection of two domestic institutions: labor market institutions (and by extension the welfare state) that enable households to withstand negative employment/income shocks, and mortgage finance institutions that govern households’ credit access. We empirically demonstrate via a panel analysis of 17 advanced capitalist democracies that the impact of these institutions on household debt is co-dependent. Strong collective bargaining institutions (and generous welfare states), which protect borrowers from income and employment insecurity, are associated with higher household indebtedness, but only if housing finance institutions that encourage mortgage lending are present (i.e. in Scandinavia and the Netherlands). In contrast, liberal (financialized) economies have comparatively lower household indebtedness because their labor market institutions inhibit income security for borrowers. As household debt becomes more central to comparative political economy, our findings suggest that scholars who study financialization need to integrate labor market (and welfare state) institutions into their analysis to understand how domestic financial systems function.

West European Politics, 2019

Housing has important economic, political, and social ramifications for Western Europe and beyond... more Housing has important economic, political, and social ramifications for Western Europe and beyond. Despite its importance in shaping economic and political outcomes, however, housing remains in the peripheral vision of major comparative political economy debates. This introduction to the special issue accomplishes four objectives. First it demonstrates how housing defies current political economy typologies by failing to conform to their theoretical and empirical predictions. Second it summarises the current state of housing research within political science, which still remains in its infancy. Third it highlights how the contributions in this special issue expand our understanding of how housing causes and is shaped by political and economic outcomes in Europe. Finally, this introduction concludes by outlining how the special issue contributions demonstrate housing's importance for the welfare state, political preferences and electoral shifts, regulatory and redistributive policies, and financialisation and household indebtedness in Europe.

JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies, 2015

The Varieties of Capitalism literature offers two competing hypotheses on institutional resilienc... more The Varieties of Capitalism literature offers two competing hypotheses on institutional resilience. One argues that globalization promotes convergence towards a neo-liberal system. Another stipulates that diverse capitalist regimes promote different comparative advantages, enabling diverse political economies to co-exist. In this article, we argue that the compatibility of diverse models of capitalism is contingent upon monetary regime. We examine how different currency regimes influence the mutual co-existence of export-led growth models (euro core) and domestic demand-led growth models (euro periphery). Under EMU, we find that these two models have become increasing incompatible, as unsustainable divergences in external balances have emerged between them. We hypothesize that external imbalances between these two growth regimes did not emerge prior to EMU because of the presence of two inflation adjustment mechanisms in the real exchange rate; the nominal exchange rate (in soft currency regimes) and national central banks’ promotion of inflation convergence (in hard currency regimes).

Transfer: European Review of Labour and Research, 2012

ABSTRACT The recent financial crisis has once again highlighted the precarious situation of trade... more ABSTRACT The recent financial crisis has once again highlighted the precarious situation of trade unions: austerity measures have targeted unions’ traditional institutional ally, the welfare state, as well as their last organizational stronghold, the public sector. The purpose of this article is to examine how trade unions have responded to reductions in welfare provision, due either to reform or to state inaction, and how state retrenchment can provide a silver lining for unions via the enhancement of unions’ bargaining responsibilities. We argue that, apart from retrenchment and privatization, there is a third road to welfare reform which involves unions’ ‘collectivization’ of social risks through the take-up of marginalized policies in bargaining agreements. Presenting evidence from a most-likely (the Netherlands) and least-likely (Greece) case, we identify instances where unions have acted as pivotal political substitutes to the state in the realm of welfare provision.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

ABSTRACT This paper analyses how wage policy in Austria and the Netherlands was affected by econo... more ABSTRACT This paper analyses how wage policy in Austria and the Netherlands was affected by economic and monetary union (EMU). The paper concludes that EMU and the macroeconomic shifts resulting from it have had little influence on wage-setting in Austria and the Netherlands. While wage restraint outcomes did diverge for both countries after the start of EMU, this paper will argue that different wage institutions lead to this divergence. The EMU’s new macroeconomic order did not significantly change either countries microeconomic wage institutions.

Higher Education Policy, 2014

Working Papers on the Reconciliation of Work and Welfare in Europe, 2009

Journal of Higher Education Policy and Management, 2013

Education Economics, 2022

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2015

Growth and Welfare in Advanced Capitalist Economies, 2021

Review of International Political Economy, 2020

West European Politics, 2019

JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies, 2015

Transfer: European Review of Labour and Research, 2012

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

Higher Education Policy, 2014

Working Papers on the Reconciliation of Work and Welfare in Europe, 2009

Journal of Higher Education Policy and Management, 2013

Political Studies, 2021

Political links between labor unions and leftist political parties have weakened over the last fo... more Political links between labor unions and leftist political parties have weakened over the last four decades in Western Europe, reducing the former's influence on the latter. Unions' prolonged organizational decline suggests that their capacity to pressure left parties should become more limited. We examine whether unions can use general strikes to influence public opinion when left parties in government pursue austerity policies. Executing a distributive lag time series analysis of quarterly public opinion data from 1986 to 2015 in Spain, we find that Socialist governments incurred significant public opinion penalties in the wake of a general strike. Not only did PSOE prime ministers lose confidence from the public, but they also witnessed a significant reduction in voting intentions. In contrast, Spain's conservative governments incurred no such public opinion penalties in response to general strikes. We conclude that general strikes carry significant political costs for left governments that stray from union ideals.

Review of International Political Economy, 2020

How do credit rating agencies (CRAs) judge welfare policies in advanced market economies (AMEs)? ... more How do credit rating agencies (CRAs) judge welfare policies in advanced market economies (AMEs)? Scholars worry that market pressures constrain AMEs’ ability to retain their welfare arrangements, but the role of ratings in generating such pressures remains unstudied, despite their well-known influence on governments’ funding costs. CRAs’ communications indicate that CRAs assign lower ratings to countries with large spending commitments that are difficult to promptly change in
response to adverse economic shocks, as insurance against drastic negative corrections (‘rating failures’). Therefore, we hypothesize that famously inflexible entitlement programs trigger rating penalties, but welfare spending that is easier to adjust does not. Our panel analysis of ratings from Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch awarded to 23 AMEs between 1995 and 2014 demonstrates that entitlement spending systematically incurs lower ratings, but discretionary spending on public
employment and social services does not. In contrast, bond-spreads are not affected by entitlement spending, once the effect of ratings is controlled for. We conclude that CRAs’ desire to avoid ‘rating failures’ is an important factor in generating negative market reactions against entitlements.

The causes and consequences of the Euro crisis have led comparative political economy scholars to... more The causes and consequences of the Euro crisis have led comparative political economy scholars to question whether European integration can accommodate diverse models of capitalism. This special issue addresses two important questions about the compatibility of diverse growth models within the European Union (EU): Are some growth regimes better suited to European integration than others? and does the EU favour a particular constellation of domestic institutions? Contributions within this special issue provide a qualified yes to these questions, concluding that the EU favours export-led growth models whilst it penalises and discourages domestic consumption-oriented growth paths, particularly those that are financed by debt accumulation. While recent comparative capitalism literature highlights that European monetary integration has favoured export-led growth regimes, contributions in this special issue outline that the EU’s prioritisation of
export-led growth over domestic demand-led growth is present in other
facets of integration, including EU accession, financial integration, the free movement of people, fiscal governance and the Europe 2020 growth strategy. Findings here provide important insights for both the European integration and comparative capitalism literature, highlighting that the unique economic ties being forged within the European project may be problematic for those countries outside northwestern Europe and for workers in low-wage domestic sectors.

The 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and subsequent European Debt Crisis had wide-sweeping cons... more The 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and subsequent European Debt Crisis had wide-sweeping consequences for global economic and political stability. Yet while these twin crises have prompted soul searching within the economics profession, international political economy (IPE) has been relatively ineffective in accounting for variation in crisis exposure across the developed world. The GFC and European Debt Crisis present the opportunity to link IPE and comparative political economy (CPE) together in the study of international economic and financial turmoil. While the GFC was prompted by the inter-connectedness of global financial markets, its instigators were largely domestic in nature and were reflective of negative externalities that stemmed from unsustainable national policies, especially those related to financial regulation and household debt accumulation. Many in IPE take an " outward looking in " approach to the examination of international economic developments and domestic politics; analysis rests on how the former impacts the latter. The GFC and European Debt Crisis, however, demonstrate the importance of a (CPE-based) " inward looking out " approach, analyzing how unique policy and political features (and failures) of individual nation states can unleash economic and financial instability at the global level amidst deepened economic and financial integration. IPE not only needs to grant greater attention to variation in domestic politics and policies in a time of closely integrated financial markets, but also should acknowledge the impact of a wider array of actors beyond banks and financial institutions (specifically more domestically rooted actors like households) on cross-national variation in the consumption of foreign credit.

International political economy identifies declining nominal interest rates, securitization, and ... more International political economy identifies declining nominal interest rates, securitization, and financial liberalization as drivers of rising housing prices. Despite witnessing these common credit shocks, however, developed economies experienced divergent trends in housing inflation since the 1980s. We offer a comparative political economy explanation of variation in house prices, arguing that by restraining household incomes, wage-setting institutions can blunt financial liberalization's inflationary impact on housing markets. Employing quantitative analysis and a comparative study of Ireland and the Netherlands, we uncover two findings. First, countries where political coalitions in the export sector held veto powers over those in the nontraded sector in national wage setting realized lower housing inflation. Second, the impact of sectoral coalitions on housing prices in OECD countries is similar to that of financial variables. Our results suggest that the organization of labor politics continues to play an important role in mitigating the destabilizing effects of global finance on developed economies.

Since the 1980s, general strikes have occurred in Western Europe with increasing regularity. This... more Since the 1980s, general strikes have occurred in Western Europe with increasing regularity. This increase has been particularly evident since the onset of the recent European debt crisis, during which general strikes have served as pivotal instruments of mass mobilization against austerity. General strikes are national work stoppages called by one or more national union confederation(s) against the government in its role as a legislator; more simply, they are mobilization events undertaken by unions when governments propose and/or introduce welfare or social policy reforms. Despite the increase in general strikes across Western Europe, we still know little about their effectiveness in holding governments accountable. Governments' decisions to include labor unions in negotiating broadly unpopular policy reforms have resulted in numerous social pacts in Western Europe since the 1980s, providing the empirical basis for studies aiming to understand what motivates governments and social partners to cooperate. 1 Much of the research has focused on " blame avoidance, " understanding pacts as a way in which governments attempt to blunt the potential electoral backlash of unpopular reforms. Yet, at the same time governments' contentious policies have also been met with resistance from unions via general strikes: between 1980 and 2012, 130 general strikes or strike threats were recorded in eleven countries of the EU15 plus Norway. We argue that, in contrast to social pacts, general strikes are tools of " blame attri-bution " ; they express widespread protest against unpopular reforms and serve as a highly visible opportunity of blaming governments. We therefore ask whether general strikes carry electoral consequences. We employ a (quasi-differenced) panel regression to analyze the electoral effects of general strikes for governing parties between 1980 and 2012 for the EU15 plus Norway. Our results indicate that general strikes are associated with significant vote share declines for parties heading the executive and that these strikes magnify the impact of welfare retrenchment on incumbent vote loss. Unilateral welfare reforms in the absence of strikes produce no consistent, significant electoral repercussions for incumbents, while social pacts are associated with significant

Political Studies, 2021

Political links between labor unions and leftist political parties have weakened over the last fo... more Political links between labor unions and leftist political parties have weakened over the last four decades in Western Europe, reducing the former’s influence on the latter. Unions’ prolonged organizational decline suggests that their capacity to pressure left parties should become more limited. We examine whether unions can use general strikes to influence public opinion when left parties in government pursue austerity policies. Executing a distributive lag time series analysis of quarterly public opinion data from 1986 to 2015 in Spain, we find that Socialist governments incurred significant public opinion penalties in the wake of a general strike. Not only did PSOE prime ministers lose confidence from the public, but they also witnessed a significant reduction in voting intentions. In contrast, Spain’s conservative governments incurred no such public opinion penalties in response to general strikes. We conclude that general strikes carry significant political costs for left governments that stray from union ideals.