Bent Flyvbjerg - Profile on Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Books by Bent Flyvbjerg
Penguin Random House. Named a Best Book of the Year by The Economist, The Financial Times, Forbes, Inc. Magazine, CEO Magazine, Morningstar, Business Leader, Redefining Energy, and more., 2023
“This book is important, timely, instructive, and entertaining. What more could you ask for?” —Da... more “This book is important, timely, instructive, and entertaining. What more could you ask for?” —Daniel Kahneman, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics and author of Thinking, Fast and Slow
“A wise, vivid, and unforgettable combination of inspiring storytelling with decades of practical research and experience . . . Everyone who deals with large projects is already desperate to read this book. The rest of us will take great pleasure in learning from it anyway.” —Tim Harford, author of The Data Detective
“Having researched the properties of planning errors, I am confident that nobody has studied the topic more broadly and deeply than Bent Flyvbjerg. His focus ranges from the Olympic Games to the renovation of your doghouse.” —Nassim Nicholas Taleb, distinguished professor of risk engineering, NYU Tandon School of Engineering, and author of the Incerto series
“This book distills the best scientific advice on planning big projects. And it is arguably the bargain of the century. For a few dollars you can tap into thousands of dollars of insights in executive-education classrooms—and if you happen to be a CEO or head of state, the savings will quickly run into the billions.” —Philip Tetlock, co-author of Superforecasting
“If we’re to make it through these next few decades, we’re going to have to build a lot of stuff—and we’re going to have to do it cheaply and fast. Here’s a very useful handbook!” —Bill McKibben, author of The Flag, the Cross, and the Station Wagon
“Flyvbjerg’s study of big construction projects worldwide has led him to formulate the iron law of megaprojects: over budget, over time, under benefits, over and over again. His deep understanding of why big projects fail—and occasionally succeed—makes this book a truly fascinating read. There’s a practical payoff, too: a toolbox with eleven smart heuristics for better project leadership that every planner who wants to succeed should know.” —Gerd Gigerenzer, author of Gut Feelings
Megaprojects and Risk provides the first detailed examination of the phenomenon of megaprojects. ... more Megaprojects and Risk provides the first detailed examination of the phenomenon of megaprojects. It is a fascinating account of how the promoters of multibillion-dollar megaprojects systematically and self-servingly misinform parliaments, the public and the media in order to get projects approved and built. It shows, in unusual depth, how the formula for approval is an unhealthy cocktail of underestimated costs, overestimated revenues, undervalued environmental impacts and overvalued economic development effects. This results in projects that are extremely risky, but where the risk is concealed from MPs, taxpayers and investors. The authors not only explore the problems but also suggest practical solutions drawing on theory and hard, scientific evidence from the several hundred projects in twenty nations that illustrate the book. Accessibly written, it will be essential reading in its field for students, scholars, planners, economists, auditors, politicians, journalists and interested citizens.
The ambition for this inaugural edition of The Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management is to be... more The ambition for this inaugural edition of The Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management is to become the ultimate source for state-of-the-art scholarship in the emerging field of megaproject management. The book offers a rigorous, research-oriented, up-to-date academic view of the discipline based on high-quality data and strong theory. Until lately, the literature in this new field was scattered over a large number of publications and disciplines making it difficult to obtain an overview of the history, key issues, and core readings. Megaproject Planning and Management: Essential Readings, Vols. I-II (2014) assembled the key historical texts in the field. Now the Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management has been designed to provide the most important contemporary readings. Taken together, the two books are intended to map out the best of what is worth reading in the megaproject management literature, past and present.
Megaproject Planning and Management: Essential Readings contains the seminal articles from the gr... more Megaproject Planning and Management: Essential Readings contains the seminal articles from the growing body of research on megaproject planning and management along with an original introduction by the editor, Bent Flyvbjerg. The leading and most cited authority in the field, Flyvbjerg has used crowdsourcing and 25 years of experience to cherry-pick from several hundred articles and books the writings that define the field. This volume will be an indispensable source for those wishing to speak with authority about how megaprojects are prepared, delivered, and fought over. The target audience is students, academics, practitioners, and media pundits alike, as well as communities affected by megaprojects.
Back cover text: Real Social Science presents a new, hands-on approach to social inquiry. The the... more Back cover text: Real Social Science presents a new, hands-on approach to social inquiry. The theoretical and methodological ideas behind the book, inspired by Aristotelian phronesis, represent an original perspective within the social sciences, and this volume gives readers for the first time a set of studies exemplifying what applied phronesis looks like in practice. The reflexive analysis of values and power gives new meaning to the impact of research on policy and practice. Real Social Science is a major step forward in a novel and thriving field of research. This book will benefit scholars, researchers, and students who want to make a difference in practice, not just in the academy. Its message will make it essential reading for students and academics across the social sciences.
Back cover text: This book aims to enlarge the understanding of decision-making on mega-projects ... more Back cover text: This book aims to enlarge the understanding of decision-making on mega-projects and suggest recommendations for a more effective, efficient and democratic approach. Authors from different scientific disciplines address various aspects of the decision-making process, such as management characteristics and cost-benefit analysis, planning and innovation and competition and institutions. The subject matter is highly diverse, but certain questions remain at the forefront. For example, how do we deal with protracted preparation processes, how do we tackle risks and uncertainties, and how can we best divide the risks and responsibilities among the private and public players throughout the different phases of the project? - Presenting a state-of-the-art overview, based on experiences and visions of authors from Europe and North America, this unique book will be of interest to practitioners of large-scale project management, politicians, public officials and private organisations involved in mega-project decision-making. It will also appeal to researchers, consultants and students dealing with substantial engineering projects, complex systems, project management and transport infrastructure.
Back cover text: Megaprojects and Risk provides the first detailed examination of the phenomenon ... more Back cover text: Megaprojects and Risk provides the first detailed examination of the phenomenon of megaprojects. It is a fascinating account of how the promoters of multi-billion dollar megaprojects systematically and self-servingly misinform parliaments, the public and the media in order to get projects approved and built. It shows, in unusual depth, how the formula for approval is an unhealthy cocktail of underestimated costs, overestimated revenues, undervalued environmental impacts and overvalued economic development effects. This results in projects that are extremely risky, but where the risk is concealed from MPs, taxpayers and investors. The authors not only explore the problems but also suggest practical solutions drawing on theory, experience and hard, scientific evidence from the several hundred projects in twenty nations and five continents that illustrate the book. Accessibly written, it will be the standard reference for students, scholars, planners, economists, auditors, politicians and interested citizens for many years to come.
Back cover text: Making Social Science Matter presents an exciting new approach to social science... more Back cover text: Making Social Science Matter presents an exciting new approach to social science, including theoretical argument, methodological guidelines, and examples of practical application. Why has social science failed in attempts to emulate natural science and produce normal theory? Bent Flyvbjerg argues that the strength of social science is in its rich, reflexive analysis of values and power, essential to the social and economic development of any society. Richly informed, powerfully argued, and clearly written, this book provides essential reading for all those in the social and behavioral sciences.
Back cover text: If the new fin de siècle marks a recurrence of the real, Bent Flyvbjerg’s Ration... more Back cover text: If the new fin de siècle marks a recurrence of the real, Bent Flyvbjerg’s Rationality and Power epitomizes that development and sets new standards for social and political inquiry. The Danish town of Aalborg is to Flyvbjerg what Florence was to Machiavelli: a laboratory for understanding the real workings of power, and for grasping what they mean to our more general concerns of social and political organization. Politics, administration, and planning are examined in ways that allow a rare, in-depth understanding. The reader witnesses, firsthand, the classic and endless drama which defines what modernity and democracy are and can be.
Papers by Bent Flyvbjerg
Harvard Business Review, 2025
To find out how unique most projects are, we analyzed data on more than 1,300 IT projects in 34 c... more To find out how unique most projects are, we analyzed data on more than 1,300 IT projects in 34 companies, which had budgets ranging from 77,000to77,000 to 77,000to4.5 billion. We then took a deep dive into 219 of them, which were located in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and Australasia, to see whether managers believed that their projects were unique and how that perception affected project performance. What we found was sobering.
Working Paper, 2025
AI and bullshit (in the strong philosophical sense of Harry Frankfurt) are similar in the sense t... more AI and bullshit (in the strong philosophical sense of Harry Frankfurt) are similar in the sense that both prioritize rhetoric over truth. They mix true, false, and ambiguous statements in ways that make it difficult to distinguish which is which. AI sounds convincing even when it's wrong. As such, current AI is more about persuasion than about truth. This is a problem because it means AI produces faulty and ignorant results. For now, we need to be highly skeptical of AI.
Project Management Journal, 2024
Heuristics are fast-and-frugal rules of thumb, used to simplify complex decisions. This article e... more Heuristics are fast-and-frugal rules of thumb, used to simplify complex decisions. This article explores how heuristics may help improve project leadership. First, it identifies two schools of thought in scholarship about heuristics. Second, it explains why heuristics work, based on Occam's razor. Third, it outlines five steps for teasing out project leaders' tacit heuristics, with examples of how the steps were employed in leadership training at Oxford University. The five steps emphasize the role of Aristotelian phronesis in developing effective heuristics. Fourth, the article discusses heuristics that drove success at Pixar and how we may learn from these. Finally, areas for further research are identified. Readers, whether practitioners or scholars, are encouraged to develop and improve their own leadership heuristics and guidance is given for how to do this.
SBS Working Papers, 2024
The present paper is an update and extension of the "The Oxford Olympics Study 2016" (Flyvbjerg e... more The present paper is an update and extension of the "The Oxford Olympics Study 2016" (Flyvbjerg et al. 2016). We document that the Games remain costly and continue to have large cost overruns, to a degree that threatens their viability. The IOC is aware of the problem and has initiated reform. We assess the reforms and find: (a) Olympic costs are statistically significantly increasing; prior analyses did not show this trend; it is a step in the wrong direction. (b) Cost overruns were decreasing until 2008, but have increased since then; again a step in the wrong direction. (c) At present, the cost of Paris 2024 is USD 8.7 billion (2022 level) and cost overrun is 115% in real terms; this is not the less expensive Games that were promised. (d) Cost overruns are the norm for the Games, past, present, and future; they are the only project type that never delivered on budget, ever. We assess a new IOC policy of reducing cost by reusing existing venues instead of building new ones. We find that reuse did not have the desired effect for Tokyo 2020 and also looks ineffective for Paris 2024. Finally, we recommend that the Games look to other types of megaproject for better data, better forecasting, and how to generate the positive learning curves that are necessary for bringing costs and overrun down. Only if this happens are Los Angeles 2028 and Brisbane 2032 likely to live up to the IOC’s intentions of a more affordable Games that more cities will want to host.
Nature NPJ Climate Action, 2024
Digitalization is a core component of the green transition. Today's focus is on quantifying and p... more Digitalization is a core component of the green transition. Today's focus is on quantifying and predicting the climate effects of digitalization through various life-cycle assessments and baseline scenario methodologies. Here we argue that this is a mistake. Most attempts at prediction are based on three implicit assumptions: (a) the digital carbon footprint can be quantified, (b) business-asusual with episodic change leading to a new era of stability, and (c) investments in digitalization will be delivered within the cost, timeframe, and benefits described in their business cases. We problematize each assumption within the context of digitalization and argue that the digital carbon footprint is inherently unpredictable. We build on uncertainty literature to show that even if you cannot predict, you can still mitigate. On that basis, we propose to rethink practice on the digital carbon footprint from prediction to mitigation.
Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, 2021
Most cost-benefit analyses assume that the estimates of costs and benefits are more or less accur... more Most cost-benefit analyses assume that the estimates of costs and benefits are more or less accurate and unbiased. But what if, in reality, estimates are highly inaccurate and biased? Then the assumption that cost-benefit analysis is a rational way to improve resource allocation would be a fallacy. Based on the largest dataset of its kind, we test the assumption that cost and benefit estimates of public investments are accurate and unbiased. We find this is not the case with overwhelming statistical significance. We document the extent of cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and forecasting bias in public investments. We further assess whether such inaccuracies seriously distort effective resource allocation, which is found to be the case. We explain our findings in behavioral terms and explore their policy implications. Finally, we conclude that cost-benefit analysis of public investments stands in need of reform and we outline four steps to such reform.
P�� vej mod Nibe Sundhedscenter: Forprojekt
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2018
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2012
makes no warranties or representations of any kind concerning the accuracy or suitability of the ... more makes no warranties or representations of any kind concerning the accuracy or suitability of the information contained herein for any purpose. All such information is provided "as is" and with specific disclaimer of any warranties of merchantability, fitness for purpose, title and/or noninfringement. The views expressed are those of the contributors and are not necessarily endorsed by the University of Oxford.
Overspend? Late? Failure? What the Data Says about IT Project Risk in the Public Sector
Implementing large-scale information and communication technology (IT) projects carries large ris... more Implementing large-scale information and communication technology (IT) projects carries large risks and easily might disrupt operations, waste taxpayers’ money, and create negative publicity. Because of the high risks it is important that government leaders manage the attendant risks. We analysed the based on a sample of 1,355 public-sector IT projects. The sample included large-scale projects, on average the actual expenditure was $130 million and the average duration was 35 months. Our findings showed that the typical project had no cost overruns and took on average 24% longer than initially expected. However, comparing the risk distribution with the normative model of a thin tailed distribution, projects’ actual costs should fall within -30% and +25% of the budget in nearly 99 out of 100 projects. The data showed, however, that a staggering 18% of all projects are outliers with cost overruns >25%. Tests showed that the risk of outliers is even higher for standard software (24%...
Penguin Random House. Named a Best Book of the Year by The Economist, The Financial Times, Forbes, Inc. Magazine, CEO Magazine, Morningstar, Business Leader, Redefining Energy, and more., 2023
“This book is important, timely, instructive, and entertaining. What more could you ask for?” —Da... more “This book is important, timely, instructive, and entertaining. What more could you ask for?” —Daniel Kahneman, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics and author of Thinking, Fast and Slow
“A wise, vivid, and unforgettable combination of inspiring storytelling with decades of practical research and experience . . . Everyone who deals with large projects is already desperate to read this book. The rest of us will take great pleasure in learning from it anyway.” —Tim Harford, author of The Data Detective
“Having researched the properties of planning errors, I am confident that nobody has studied the topic more broadly and deeply than Bent Flyvbjerg. His focus ranges from the Olympic Games to the renovation of your doghouse.” —Nassim Nicholas Taleb, distinguished professor of risk engineering, NYU Tandon School of Engineering, and author of the Incerto series
“This book distills the best scientific advice on planning big projects. And it is arguably the bargain of the century. For a few dollars you can tap into thousands of dollars of insights in executive-education classrooms—and if you happen to be a CEO or head of state, the savings will quickly run into the billions.” —Philip Tetlock, co-author of Superforecasting
“If we’re to make it through these next few decades, we’re going to have to build a lot of stuff—and we’re going to have to do it cheaply and fast. Here’s a very useful handbook!” —Bill McKibben, author of The Flag, the Cross, and the Station Wagon
“Flyvbjerg’s study of big construction projects worldwide has led him to formulate the iron law of megaprojects: over budget, over time, under benefits, over and over again. His deep understanding of why big projects fail—and occasionally succeed—makes this book a truly fascinating read. There’s a practical payoff, too: a toolbox with eleven smart heuristics for better project leadership that every planner who wants to succeed should know.” —Gerd Gigerenzer, author of Gut Feelings
Megaprojects and Risk provides the first detailed examination of the phenomenon of megaprojects. ... more Megaprojects and Risk provides the first detailed examination of the phenomenon of megaprojects. It is a fascinating account of how the promoters of multibillion-dollar megaprojects systematically and self-servingly misinform parliaments, the public and the media in order to get projects approved and built. It shows, in unusual depth, how the formula for approval is an unhealthy cocktail of underestimated costs, overestimated revenues, undervalued environmental impacts and overvalued economic development effects. This results in projects that are extremely risky, but where the risk is concealed from MPs, taxpayers and investors. The authors not only explore the problems but also suggest practical solutions drawing on theory and hard, scientific evidence from the several hundred projects in twenty nations that illustrate the book. Accessibly written, it will be essential reading in its field for students, scholars, planners, economists, auditors, politicians, journalists and interested citizens.
The ambition for this inaugural edition of The Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management is to be... more The ambition for this inaugural edition of The Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management is to become the ultimate source for state-of-the-art scholarship in the emerging field of megaproject management. The book offers a rigorous, research-oriented, up-to-date academic view of the discipline based on high-quality data and strong theory. Until lately, the literature in this new field was scattered over a large number of publications and disciplines making it difficult to obtain an overview of the history, key issues, and core readings. Megaproject Planning and Management: Essential Readings, Vols. I-II (2014) assembled the key historical texts in the field. Now the Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management has been designed to provide the most important contemporary readings. Taken together, the two books are intended to map out the best of what is worth reading in the megaproject management literature, past and present.
Megaproject Planning and Management: Essential Readings contains the seminal articles from the gr... more Megaproject Planning and Management: Essential Readings contains the seminal articles from the growing body of research on megaproject planning and management along with an original introduction by the editor, Bent Flyvbjerg. The leading and most cited authority in the field, Flyvbjerg has used crowdsourcing and 25 years of experience to cherry-pick from several hundred articles and books the writings that define the field. This volume will be an indispensable source for those wishing to speak with authority about how megaprojects are prepared, delivered, and fought over. The target audience is students, academics, practitioners, and media pundits alike, as well as communities affected by megaprojects.
Back cover text: Real Social Science presents a new, hands-on approach to social inquiry. The the... more Back cover text: Real Social Science presents a new, hands-on approach to social inquiry. The theoretical and methodological ideas behind the book, inspired by Aristotelian phronesis, represent an original perspective within the social sciences, and this volume gives readers for the first time a set of studies exemplifying what applied phronesis looks like in practice. The reflexive analysis of values and power gives new meaning to the impact of research on policy and practice. Real Social Science is a major step forward in a novel and thriving field of research. This book will benefit scholars, researchers, and students who want to make a difference in practice, not just in the academy. Its message will make it essential reading for students and academics across the social sciences.
Back cover text: This book aims to enlarge the understanding of decision-making on mega-projects ... more Back cover text: This book aims to enlarge the understanding of decision-making on mega-projects and suggest recommendations for a more effective, efficient and democratic approach. Authors from different scientific disciplines address various aspects of the decision-making process, such as management characteristics and cost-benefit analysis, planning and innovation and competition and institutions. The subject matter is highly diverse, but certain questions remain at the forefront. For example, how do we deal with protracted preparation processes, how do we tackle risks and uncertainties, and how can we best divide the risks and responsibilities among the private and public players throughout the different phases of the project? - Presenting a state-of-the-art overview, based on experiences and visions of authors from Europe and North America, this unique book will be of interest to practitioners of large-scale project management, politicians, public officials and private organisations involved in mega-project decision-making. It will also appeal to researchers, consultants and students dealing with substantial engineering projects, complex systems, project management and transport infrastructure.
Back cover text: Megaprojects and Risk provides the first detailed examination of the phenomenon ... more Back cover text: Megaprojects and Risk provides the first detailed examination of the phenomenon of megaprojects. It is a fascinating account of how the promoters of multi-billion dollar megaprojects systematically and self-servingly misinform parliaments, the public and the media in order to get projects approved and built. It shows, in unusual depth, how the formula for approval is an unhealthy cocktail of underestimated costs, overestimated revenues, undervalued environmental impacts and overvalued economic development effects. This results in projects that are extremely risky, but where the risk is concealed from MPs, taxpayers and investors. The authors not only explore the problems but also suggest practical solutions drawing on theory, experience and hard, scientific evidence from the several hundred projects in twenty nations and five continents that illustrate the book. Accessibly written, it will be the standard reference for students, scholars, planners, economists, auditors, politicians and interested citizens for many years to come.
Back cover text: Making Social Science Matter presents an exciting new approach to social science... more Back cover text: Making Social Science Matter presents an exciting new approach to social science, including theoretical argument, methodological guidelines, and examples of practical application. Why has social science failed in attempts to emulate natural science and produce normal theory? Bent Flyvbjerg argues that the strength of social science is in its rich, reflexive analysis of values and power, essential to the social and economic development of any society. Richly informed, powerfully argued, and clearly written, this book provides essential reading for all those in the social and behavioral sciences.
Back cover text: If the new fin de siècle marks a recurrence of the real, Bent Flyvbjerg’s Ration... more Back cover text: If the new fin de siècle marks a recurrence of the real, Bent Flyvbjerg’s Rationality and Power epitomizes that development and sets new standards for social and political inquiry. The Danish town of Aalborg is to Flyvbjerg what Florence was to Machiavelli: a laboratory for understanding the real workings of power, and for grasping what they mean to our more general concerns of social and political organization. Politics, administration, and planning are examined in ways that allow a rare, in-depth understanding. The reader witnesses, firsthand, the classic and endless drama which defines what modernity and democracy are and can be.
Harvard Business Review, 2025
To find out how unique most projects are, we analyzed data on more than 1,300 IT projects in 34 c... more To find out how unique most projects are, we analyzed data on more than 1,300 IT projects in 34 companies, which had budgets ranging from 77,000to77,000 to 77,000to4.5 billion. We then took a deep dive into 219 of them, which were located in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and Australasia, to see whether managers believed that their projects were unique and how that perception affected project performance. What we found was sobering.
Working Paper, 2025
AI and bullshit (in the strong philosophical sense of Harry Frankfurt) are similar in the sense t... more AI and bullshit (in the strong philosophical sense of Harry Frankfurt) are similar in the sense that both prioritize rhetoric over truth. They mix true, false, and ambiguous statements in ways that make it difficult to distinguish which is which. AI sounds convincing even when it's wrong. As such, current AI is more about persuasion than about truth. This is a problem because it means AI produces faulty and ignorant results. For now, we need to be highly skeptical of AI.
Project Management Journal, 2024
Heuristics are fast-and-frugal rules of thumb, used to simplify complex decisions. This article e... more Heuristics are fast-and-frugal rules of thumb, used to simplify complex decisions. This article explores how heuristics may help improve project leadership. First, it identifies two schools of thought in scholarship about heuristics. Second, it explains why heuristics work, based on Occam's razor. Third, it outlines five steps for teasing out project leaders' tacit heuristics, with examples of how the steps were employed in leadership training at Oxford University. The five steps emphasize the role of Aristotelian phronesis in developing effective heuristics. Fourth, the article discusses heuristics that drove success at Pixar and how we may learn from these. Finally, areas for further research are identified. Readers, whether practitioners or scholars, are encouraged to develop and improve their own leadership heuristics and guidance is given for how to do this.
SBS Working Papers, 2024
The present paper is an update and extension of the "The Oxford Olympics Study 2016" (Flyvbjerg e... more The present paper is an update and extension of the "The Oxford Olympics Study 2016" (Flyvbjerg et al. 2016). We document that the Games remain costly and continue to have large cost overruns, to a degree that threatens their viability. The IOC is aware of the problem and has initiated reform. We assess the reforms and find: (a) Olympic costs are statistically significantly increasing; prior analyses did not show this trend; it is a step in the wrong direction. (b) Cost overruns were decreasing until 2008, but have increased since then; again a step in the wrong direction. (c) At present, the cost of Paris 2024 is USD 8.7 billion (2022 level) and cost overrun is 115% in real terms; this is not the less expensive Games that were promised. (d) Cost overruns are the norm for the Games, past, present, and future; they are the only project type that never delivered on budget, ever. We assess a new IOC policy of reducing cost by reusing existing venues instead of building new ones. We find that reuse did not have the desired effect for Tokyo 2020 and also looks ineffective for Paris 2024. Finally, we recommend that the Games look to other types of megaproject for better data, better forecasting, and how to generate the positive learning curves that are necessary for bringing costs and overrun down. Only if this happens are Los Angeles 2028 and Brisbane 2032 likely to live up to the IOC’s intentions of a more affordable Games that more cities will want to host.
Nature NPJ Climate Action, 2024
Digitalization is a core component of the green transition. Today's focus is on quantifying and p... more Digitalization is a core component of the green transition. Today's focus is on quantifying and predicting the climate effects of digitalization through various life-cycle assessments and baseline scenario methodologies. Here we argue that this is a mistake. Most attempts at prediction are based on three implicit assumptions: (a) the digital carbon footprint can be quantified, (b) business-asusual with episodic change leading to a new era of stability, and (c) investments in digitalization will be delivered within the cost, timeframe, and benefits described in their business cases. We problematize each assumption within the context of digitalization and argue that the digital carbon footprint is inherently unpredictable. We build on uncertainty literature to show that even if you cannot predict, you can still mitigate. On that basis, we propose to rethink practice on the digital carbon footprint from prediction to mitigation.
Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, 2021
Most cost-benefit analyses assume that the estimates of costs and benefits are more or less accur... more Most cost-benefit analyses assume that the estimates of costs and benefits are more or less accurate and unbiased. But what if, in reality, estimates are highly inaccurate and biased? Then the assumption that cost-benefit analysis is a rational way to improve resource allocation would be a fallacy. Based on the largest dataset of its kind, we test the assumption that cost and benefit estimates of public investments are accurate and unbiased. We find this is not the case with overwhelming statistical significance. We document the extent of cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and forecasting bias in public investments. We further assess whether such inaccuracies seriously distort effective resource allocation, which is found to be the case. We explain our findings in behavioral terms and explore their policy implications. Finally, we conclude that cost-benefit analysis of public investments stands in need of reform and we outline four steps to such reform.
P�� vej mod Nibe Sundhedscenter: Forprojekt
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2018
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2012
makes no warranties or representations of any kind concerning the accuracy or suitability of the ... more makes no warranties or representations of any kind concerning the accuracy or suitability of the information contained herein for any purpose. All such information is provided "as is" and with specific disclaimer of any warranties of merchantability, fitness for purpose, title and/or noninfringement. The views expressed are those of the contributors and are not necessarily endorsed by the University of Oxford.
Overspend? Late? Failure? What the Data Says about IT Project Risk in the Public Sector
Implementing large-scale information and communication technology (IT) projects carries large ris... more Implementing large-scale information and communication technology (IT) projects carries large risks and easily might disrupt operations, waste taxpayers’ money, and create negative publicity. Because of the high risks it is important that government leaders manage the attendant risks. We analysed the based on a sample of 1,355 public-sector IT projects. The sample included large-scale projects, on average the actual expenditure was $130 million and the average duration was 35 months. Our findings showed that the typical project had no cost overruns and took on average 24% longer than initially expected. However, comparing the risk distribution with the normative model of a thin tailed distribution, projects’ actual costs should fall within -30% and +25% of the budget in nearly 99 out of 100 projects. The data showed, however, that a staggering 18% of all projects are outliers with cost overruns >25%. Tests showed that the risk of outliers is even higher for standard software (24%...
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2014
Glossary Term Definition Audit Committee Audit Committee of the Board of MTRCL B3 Basement level ... more Glossary Term Definition Audit Committee Audit Committee of the Board of MTRCL B3 Basement level 3 B4 Basement level 4 Board Board of directors of MTRCL CEO Chief Executive Officer of MTRCL Chairman Chairman of the Board CIQ Customs, Immigration and Quarantine CLP CLP, the Hong Kong power company CRC China Railway Corporation CWC Capital Works Committee D&B Drill and blast Degree-1 Degree-1 structure completion for track-laying and E&M Installation D/T Down track line DCEO Deputy CEO of MTRCL DHy Director of Highways DRM(s) Delay recovery measure(s) E&M Electrical and Mechanical Engineer's Representatives The Engineer's Representative means a person appointed by the Engineer to watch, inspect and supervise the execution of the works and to test and examine any materials or workmanship to be used or provided by contractors. Entrustment Activities All activities required for the planning, design, construction, testing and commissioning in relation to the Project, including railway works, property development enabling works and miscellaneous works Entrustment Agreement Entrustment Agreement dated 26 January 2010 Entrustment Programme The programme for the execution of the Entrustment Activities Estimated Handover Date 4 August 2015, being the date set out in the Entrustment Agreement (as may be adjusted in accordance with the terms of that agreement) on which MTRCL estimated that it would formally hand over the completed Project to Government ExCo Executive Council of Hong Kong ExCom Executive Committee of MTRCL FD Finance Director of MTRCL A-4 Term Definition First IBC Report The first report by the IBC on XRL dated July 2014 GM General Manager (within MTRCL) GM fund The budget under control of the MTRCL GM Government Government of the HKSAR GRC Guangshen Railway Corporation HSR High-speed rail HyD Highways Department of the HKSAR
Perché un progetto IT può essere più rischioso di quanto si creda (Why Your IT Project May Be Riskier than You Think)
ABSTRACT Ai vertici di Levi Strauss, quella di riorganizzare i sistemi IT era sembrata una buona ... more ABSTRACT Ai vertici di Levi Strauss, quella di riorganizzare i sistemi IT era sembrata una buona idea. L’azienda aveva fatto parecchia strada dalla sua fondazione nel XIX secolo ad opera di un commerciante tedesco di tessuti: nel 2003 era una grande azienda globale attiva in oltre 110 Paesi. La sua rete IT era invece antiquata, una commistione balcanica di sistemi informatici nazionali incompatibili tra loro. Si decise dunque di passare a un unico sistema SAP e a questo fine venne assunto un team di consulenti di Deloitte. I rischi apparivano contenuti: il budget previsto ammontava a meno di 5 milioni di dollari. Ma ben presto si scatenò l’inferno. Un cliente importante come Walmart pose la condizione che il sistema si interfacciasse con quello che gestiva la sua supply chain interna, creando ulteriori difficoltà. L’insufficienza delle procedure di reporting finanziario e di controllo interno quasi costrinse Levi Strauss a rivedere i risultati trimestrali e annuali. Nel corso della migrazione non fu possibile evadere gli ordini e i tre centri di distribuzione negli Stati Uniti rimasero chiusi per una settimana. Nel secondo trimestre del 2008 l’azienda inserì in bilancio una posta negativa di 192,5 milioni di dollari per compensare il progetto mal riuscito e il CIO, David Bergen, fu costretto a dimettersi.
Overspend? Late? Failure? What the Data Say About IT Project Risk in the Public Sector
Making Sense of the Impact and Importance of Outliers in Project Management through the Use of Power Laws
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2011
IllustratIon: alIson seIffer T o top managers at Levi Strauss, revamping the information technolo... more IllustratIon: alIson seIffer T o top managers at Levi Strauss, revamping the information technology system seemed like a good idea. The company had come a long way since its founding in the 19th century by a German-born dry-goods salesman: In 2003 it was a global corporation, with operations in more than 110 countries. But its IT network was antiquated, a balkanized mix of
Tension Points: Learning to Make Social Science Matter
The phronetic approach to social science as developed in Making Social Science Matter (Flyvbjerg ... more The phronetic approach to social science as developed in Making Social Science Matter (Flyvbjerg 2001), Making Political Science Matter (Schram and Caterino 2006) and Real Social Science (Flyvbjerg, Landman and Schram 2012) argues for the application of practical wisdom in social science research that emerges from the development of applied expert knowledge. The collection of case studies in Real Social Science revealed a remarkable set of ‘tension points’ across different research projects that are crucial in bringing impact and change that flows from the research itself. From mega-projects to airport expansion, these tension points show extraordinary yet persistent contradictions (e.g. skewed cost-benefit analysis for megaprojects or ‘sustainable aviation’ in the UK) in policy making and practice that are elucidated through the phronetic approach. Conceived as ‘fault lines’, tension points can be ‘broken’ through sustained research that identifies them, problematizes them, and dev...
Real Social Science
Press, pp. 285-97 APPLIED PHRONESIS The term "phronetic social science" was coined in Making Soci... more Press, pp. 285-97 APPLIED PHRONESIS The term "phronetic social science" was coined in Making Social Science Matter (Flyvbjerg 2001). However, as pointed out in that volume and by Schram (2006), phronetic social science existed well before this particular articulation of the concept, but it was just not organized, recognized, or named as such. Rather, it occurred here and there as scholars had adopted phronesis-like methods for their own purposes. The present title is the first organized volume of empirical-practical work in phronetic social science. Before Making Social Science Matter, phronesis, as a critical term of Aristotelian philosophy, had been theorized and its continuing importance as a key concept in Western thought had been convincingly argued by distinguished philosophers like Hans Georg Gadamer, Hannah Arendt, Alasdair MacIntyre, and Richard J. Bernstein, among others. But no one had developed the theory and philosophy of phronesis into a practical methodology that could be applied by researchers interested in actually practicing a phronetic social science. Making Social Science Matter developed such a methodology. Its implications were discussed and developed further in Making Political Science Matter (Schram and Caterino 2006). After these two theoretical-methodological contributions, it was evident that an important next step in demonstrating the usefulness of phronetic social science would be to illustrate, with concrete examples, how applied phronesis works in practical, empirical social science research. The contributions on applied phronesis contained in the present volume make clear that this next step has now been taken. We use the term "applied" in this book with some reluctance and in a different meaning than is usual in the natural and social sciences, where it typically means applying theory that has been developed a priori. The conventional view holds that theory precedes action in a top-down movement where one
Real Social Science
There is ferment in the social sciences. After years of sustained effort to build a science of so... more There is ferment in the social sciences. After years of sustained effort to build a science of society modelled on the natural sciences, that project, long treated with suspicion by some, is now openly being rethought. A critical intervention in this period of reflection was Making Social Science Matter (MSSM) by Bent Flyvbjerg, published in 2001. In that book Flyvbjerg challenged the very idea of social science as a science modelled on the natural sciences. Flyvbjerg argued that, as the social sciences study human interactions that involve human consciousness, volition, power and reflexivity, attempts to build generalizable, predictive models such as those for the natural world are misplaced and even futile. MSSM offered a pointed argument about what is wrong with the social sciences today, and enumerated examples of how what it saw as an alternative social science is possible and already happening. The book provided a thorough analysis of how its alternative social science is dedicated to enhancing a socially relevant form of knowledge, that is, 'phronesis' (practical wisdom on how to address and act on social problems in a particular context). Significantly, MSSM reinterpreted the Aristotelian concept of phronesis to include issues of power and explained that building on this new version of phronesis is the best bet for the relevance of the social sciences in society. Intelligent social action requires phronesis, to which the social sciences can best contribute and the natural sciences cannot with their emphasis on 'epistemé' (universal truth) and 'techné' (technical know-how). This Aristotelian tripartite distinction of 'intellectual virtues' was critical in MSSM for highlighting the comparative advantage of social science. Even in Aristotle's original interpretation, phronesis is seen as the most important of the intellectual virtues, because it is needed for the management of human affairs, including the management of epistemé and techné, which cannot manage themselves. Phronesis, in this sense, is knowledge that is sensitive to its application in specific settings and is therefore able to manage itself (and more), which is what gives it prominence in social thought and action.
New Political Science, 2013
The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and should be independently verified with p... more The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and should be independently verified with primary sources of information. Taylor and Francis shall not be liable for any losses, actions, claims, proceedings, demands, costs, expenses, damages, and other liabilities whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with, in relation to or arising out of the use of the Content. This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply, or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden.
The British Journal of Sociology, 2013
Social science today often contents itself with trying to explain particular events in terms of g... more Social science today often contents itself with trying to explain particular events in terms of general models without understanding those events as experienced by the people being studied and without providing findings that might help people address the problems they are experiencing. It can be argued that the recent development of social science has focused too much on its own 'evidence-inference methodological core' and has lost sight of what is being studied, who is being studied, and how the results of research can challenge popular understanding, misconceptions, and power relations. At the most basic level, our edited volume Real Social Science: Applied Phronesis (Cambridge, 2012) is designed to provide examples of research that is situated in real communities, grows out of the concerns of people in those communities and is conducted in ways that can help those people address those concerns. These examples demonstrate that what we are calling "phronetic social science" (as originally coined by Bent Flyvbjerg) offers a meaningful approach for making social science useful and relevant to real people experiencing real problems. Phronetic social science calls for social scientists foregoing the attempt to build generic models of social behavior and instead situate their work in ongoing political struggles as they occur in specific contexts.
Infrastructure Economics and Policy: International Perspectives , 2022
Most cost-benefit analyses assume that the estimates of costs and benefits are more or less accur... more Most cost-benefit analyses assume that the estimates of costs and benefits are more or less accurate and unbiased. But what if, in reality, estimates of costs and benefits are highly inaccurate and biased? Then the assumption that cost-benefit analysis is a rational way to improve resource allocation would be a fallacy. Using the largest dataset of its kind, we test the assumption that cost and benefit estimates of infrastructure capital investments are accurate and unbiased. We find this is not the case with overwhelming statistical significance. We document the extent of cost overruns, demand shortfalls, and forecasting bias in infrastructure investments. We further assess whether such forecasting inaccuracies seriously distort effective resource allocation, which is found to be the case. We explain our findings in behavioral terms and explore their implications for infrastructure economics and policy. Finally, we conclude that cost-benefit analysis stands in need of reform, and we outline four steps to such reform.
Jonathan E. Hillman, ed., Is Asia Reconnecting? Essays on Asia's Infrastructure Contest (New York: Rowman and Littlefield with Center for Strategic & International Studies), Chapter 7, pp. 7-9., 2017
Low-quality infrastructure investments pose significant risk to the Chinese economy. Unless China... more Low-quality infrastructure investments pose significant risk to the Chinese economy. Unless China shifts to fewer and higher-quality infrastructure investments, the country is headed for an infrastructure-led national financial and economic crisis, which is likely to spread to the international economy.
With Albert O. Hirschman, project management scholarship has what it lacks the most: an eminent i... more With Albert O. Hirschman, project management scholarship has what it lacks the most: an eminent intellectual and social scientist who has thought long and hard about project management, and especially the management of large transformative projects. Cass Sunstein, co-author of Nudge and a key contributor to behavioral economics, distinguishes Hirschman as an early behavioral economist and says that his main contribution to project management, the book Development Projects Observed, "can plausibly be counted as a work in behavioral economics." This chapter tests Sunstein's claim by assessing Hirschman's work in major project management. The chapter asks what we can learn from Hirschman, as scholars, policy makers, and project leaders. The focus is on Hirschman's principle of the Hiding Hand, first described in Development Projects Observed, because this is rightly considered his largest idea on project management and one of his main contributions to economics and social science.
This paper focuses on problems and their causes and cures in policy and planning for large infras... more This paper focuses on problems and their causes and cures in policy and planning for large infrastructure projects. First, the paper identifies as the main problem in major infrastructure developments pervasive misinformation about the costs, benefits, and risks involved. A consequence of misinformation is massive cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and waste. Second, the paper explores the causes of misinformation and finds that political-economic explanations best account for the available evidence: planners and promoters deliberately misrepresent costs, benefits, and risks in order to increase the likelihood that it is their projects, and not the competition's, that gain approval and funding. This results in the "survival of the unfittest," where often it is not the best projects that are built, but the most misrepresented ones. Finally, the paper presents measures for reforming policy and planning for large infrastructure projects with a focus on better planning methods and changed governance-structures, the latter being more important.
Et ud af seks store it-projekter går helt galt. Det er et af resultaterne fra en af de største in... more Et ud af seks store it-projekter går helt galt. Det er et af resultaterne fra en af de største internationale undersøgelser på området foretaget af forskere fra Oxford Universitet med danske Bent Flyvbjerg i spidsen. Med budget-overskridelser på de værste projekter på i gennemsnit 200% er it-projekter mere tilbøjelige til at køre af sporet end tilsvarende store byggeprojekter. Hvorfor er it-projekter så sårbare? Hvad gør man galt? Denne artikel bringes i samarbejde med Bent Flyvbjerg og ser nærmere på undersøgelsens resultater og konklusioner. Slutteligt giver artiklen en række anbefalinger til, hvordan man kan styre sit it-projekt sikkert i havn. Anbefalinger, som Taktika har udarbejdet i samarbejde med Økonomistyrelsen.
One out of ten IT projects go wrong. That is one of the results from one of the largest international studies in IT that exists, carried out by researchers at Oxford University, led by Bent Flyvbjerg. With cost overruns on the worst projects at 200% on average, IT projects are more likely to go off track than large construction projects. Why are IT projects so vulnerable? What is done wrong?
The Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management, Apr 2017
Megaprojects are large, they are constantly growing ever larger, and more and more are being buil... more Megaprojects are large, they are constantly growing ever larger, and more and more are being built in what has been called the biggest investment boom in history. This chapter serves as an introduction to megaprojects, and to The Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management. First, megaprojects are defined and the size of the global megaprojects business is estimated. Second, drivers of the megaproject boom are identified, including monumentalism and the technological sublime. Third, ten things you must know about megaprojects are detailed, from their tendency to suffer from uniqueness bias to their overexposure to black-swan events. Fourth, the "iron law of megaprojects" is identified as a main challenge to megaproject management: "Over budget, over time, under benefits, over and over again." Finally, the main structure of the Handbook is set out as covering the what, the why, and the how of megaproject management, in terms of the challenges, causes, and cures that students of megaprojects must decipher to better understand and better manage megaprojects.
Taken together, the works of Jürgen Habermas and Michel Foucault highlight an essential tension i... more Taken together, the works of Jürgen Habermas and Michel Foucault highlight an essential tension in modernity. This is the tension between the normative and the real, between what should be done and what is actually done. Understanding this tension is crucial to understanding modern democracy, what it is and what it could be. It has been argued that an effective way of making democracy stronger is to strengthen civil society. This article contains a comparative analysis of the central ideas of Habermas and Foucault as they pertain to the question of democracy and civil society. More specifically, the discourse ethics of Habermas is contrasted with the power analytics and ethics of Foucault evaluating their usefulness for those interested in understanding, and bringing about, democratic social change.
We live in an unprecedented era for humankind. Recently, for the first time ever, have the action... more We live in an unprecedented era for humankind. Recently, for the first time ever, have the actions of people become a threat on a global scale to their life. This is not only through nuclear disasters that may or may not happen but through changes in the global ecology that are happening. Earlier, on a human time scale the continuance or life on the planet was considered a constant rather than a question mark. No wonder, then, it has been said we live in a post-era: post-rational, post enlightenment, post-modern, post-foundationalist, post-structuralist. If any one phenomenon distinguishes the start or a new era and a post-condition, it is this: humans' newly achieved ability to effectively destroy their own sustenance. The world has become post-immortal; not in the sense that human life on the planet is necessarily mortal on the scale of human history, but rather that there is no longer any assurance of its immortality. We live in a world-aI-risk, where life has become contingent upon our own actions. In this unique situation the need has never been greater to skillfully pose, answer, and act upon simple value-rational questions like the following: (a) Where are we going? (b) Who gains, who loses? (c) Is this development desirable? (d) What should be done?
The Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management; Listed on SSRN's Top-Ten download list for Financial Economics, FEN, Economics Research, Corporate Finance, Macroeconomics, Apr 2017
In this paper we characterise the propensity of big capital investments to systematically deliver... more In this paper we characterise the propensity of big capital investments to systematically deliver poor outcomes as “fragility,” a notion suggested by Nassim Taleb. A thing or system that is easily harmed by randomness is fragile. We argue that, contrary to their appearance, big capital investments break easily — i.e. deliver negative net present value — due to various sources of uncertainty that impact them during their long gestation, implementation, and operation periods. We do not refute the existence of economies of scale and scope. Instead we argue that big capital investments have a disproportionate (non-linear) exposure to uncertainties that deliver poor or negative returns above and beyond their economies of scale and scope. We further argue that to succeed, leaders of capital projects need to carefully consider where scaling pays off and where it does not. To automatically assume that "bigger is better," which is common in megaproject management, is a recipe for failure.
A main problem in the decision-making of major infrastructure projects is the high level of misin... more A main problem in the decision-making of major infrastructure projects is the high level of misinformation about costs decision-makers face in deciding whether to build the project. Reduced public funds and misallocation thereof were the main reasons for the revival of private financing in infrastructure planning. A first systematic study into the relation between project ownership and cost performance of transport infrastructure projects showed that the problem may not be the difference between private and public projects but a certain type of public ownership, i.e. state-owned enterprises. This study concluded that it is not ownership in itself that matters in project performance. Ownership does not reveal which parties are responsible for construction, operation, or maintenance. Consequently, we cannot draw any conclusions on whether private parties’ involvement results in better project performance. Based on a case study of the HSL-South, a high-speed railway line in the Netherlands, we found that the contracting strategy and the amount of private financing are better determinants for project performance.