George Petrakos | Panteion University (original) (raw)
Papers by George Petrakos
Journal of Urban and Regional Analysis
The present study identifies socioeconomic, political, and institutional factors that shape exten... more The present study identifies socioeconomic, political, and institutional factors that shape extensive budget unbalances in four European Mediterranean countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain), causing significant deficits and a public debt equal to (or above) 120% of their respective Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at the end of 2020. Regression analysis, run on official statistics, demonstrates that the dynamics of fiscal deficits in these countries are largely heterogeneous. This outcome suggests that the various factors and contexts considered here exert different effects in each country. Political factors played an important role in Greece, being less important in Spain, and having a negligible role in both Italy and Portugal. On the contrary, institutional factors were recognized as particularly important in Greece, Italy, and Portugal. Although important almost everywhere, the magnitude of the impact of economic factors also differed across the four countries.
Open Economies Review
The present study identifies economic, political, and institutional variables that influence the ... more The present study identifies economic, political, and institutional variables that influence the distribution of personal incomes in the Eurozone countries facing severe fiscal imbalances, namely Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. Crucially, this paper is the first to investigate the effect of the corrective arm of the Stability and Growth Pact, the so-called Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP), on the income distribution of the aforementioned economies, where EDP was imposed over a long time period. The empirical results of this study show that (i) EDP impact depends on the specific mix of policy measures undertaken and that (ii) a high public debt does not reflect the existence of common factors shaping income distribution in the four Southern European economies. The share of labor income in total income, constitutes a significant determinant of income inequality. However, we find that the relationship between labor share and income inequality is also country-specific, depending on the intrinsic characteristics of each individual economic system.
Regional Statistics
We study the existence, magnitude, and determinants of political budget cycles in Greece over the... more We study the existence, magnitude, and determinants of political budget cycles in Greece over the past 40 years. We find that the Greek economy has been characterised by extensive electorally-motivated cycles, which are not typical of a developed country. However, we show that the corrective fiscal measures imposed by the European institutions in the face of the Greek debt crisis suppressed these pre-electoral fiscal policy manipulations. In particular, the imposition of the Excessive Deficit Procedure of the Stability and Growth Pact reduced the ability of domestic politicians to increase public deficits to the point where it eliminated, albeit only marginally, political budget cycles.
International Business Research, 2014
In 2004, the Greek Commercial Law incorporated the European Union (EU) regulation regarding the m... more In 2004, the Greek Commercial Law incorporated the European Union (EU) regulation regarding the mandatory implementation of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), by all companies listed in Athens Stock Exchange (ASE), for financial years starting January 1 st , 2005. This structural evolution in the accounting regulation framework in Greece resulted in substantial changes in the historical financial information provided by the Greek listed companies. The aim of this paper is to identify significant differences between the IFRS and the Greek General Accepted Accounting Principles (or Greek GAAP). Based on the results of the nonparametric statistical analysis, significant differences were noted in a number of areas of financial statements. Furthermore, we detected the areas of financial statements provided by Greek companies where differences have had major impact.
This paper introduces a formal presentation of sampling process using principles and concepts fro... more This paper introduces a formal presentation of sampling process using principles and concepts from Probability Algebra and Information Theory. Under this model, any sampling scheme defines uniquely a probability measure, illustrated in various examples along with some applications in survey design and management.
Advances in Methodology and Statistics
In this paper we consider inference regarding the ratio of two normal and the ratio of two t-dist... more In this paper we consider inference regarding the ratio of two normal and the ratio of two t-distributed random variables, using both the popular Fieller interval, as well as, exact distributions. We apply these methods to a historical dataset regarding the shape of the Earth, and estimate the Earth's flatness coefficient as a ratio of regression coefficients. We demonstrate the equivalence of the inference using the exact density of this ratio with that using the Fieller interval.
This paper explores Mirror Outlier Detection in For eign Trade data. More specifically it present... more This paper explores Mirror Outlier Detection in For eign Trade data. More specifically it presents the MOD application developed in Eurost at/Unit-G3 that performs detection on data extracted from COMEXT. The Median Absolute Deviation method is used for outlier detection. It illustrates how t he outliers are characterised based on the mirror series. It outlines how MOD handles sort series due to product changes. Also it presents the methodology for classifying ou tlier due to errors in the series dimensions and not in the observation values. Outco me f MOD is presented in graphical form. Technical information on the design a d implementation of the application are given. A new platform for visualisi ng and analysing outlier data, stored in MOD’s repository, is proposed. The visual isation is based on a multidimensional viewer supporting OLAP functions. Data analysis is based on loglinear models for extracting inferences from the da ta.
Culture and Tourism in a Smart, Globalized, and Sustainable World, 2021
Tourism can be a powerful economic growth driver but also a risk to ongoing development of a regi... more Tourism can be a powerful economic growth driver but also a risk to ongoing development of a region or even a country, if not managed correctly. It will only be sustainable if developed and managed considering both visitors and local communities. The aim of this study is to explore open data quantitative analysis through the construction of two composite indicators measuring overtourism and tourism carrying capacity in specific geographical regions. By evaluating these indices in the 13 administrative regions in Greece, one can easily identify regions that are close to saturation level as well as regions that have potential for further tourism development in the country. Hence, these indicators can be a useful tool for planning tourism policy that respects the specificities and the limits of the regions, protecting a destination from overtourism and averting tourism development from becoming an overwhelming constraint to the growth of the region, the well-being of the local populati...
Consistent validation of Statistical Data is an essential prerequisite of any process aiming at e... more Consistent validation of Statistical Data is an essential prerequisite of any process aiming at ensuring the quality and homogeneity of Statistical Information, especially when data are acquired from distributed heterogeneous sources. The ad-hoc, “filter”-like solutions currently used are not sufficient to ensure a systematic and consistent validation process. The present paper provides a framework for the formal definition and classification of validation rules, which in turn is used as the theoretical basis for the definition of abstract data structures, able to hold the rules’ declarations. Thus, the construction of an abstract information model that stores and handles validation rules as metadata becomes feasible. This leads to a declarative formalisation of rules, as opposed to the usual procedural (algorithmic) approach. Furthermore, based on these concepts, the paper describes the implementation of this data model in the form of distributed globally accessible repositories (i...
Data validation, i.e. the process of detecting erroneous, or probably erroneous, values within st... more Data validation, i.e. the process of detecting erroneous, or probably erroneous, values within statistical data sets, is normally done through the application of validation rules, such as ranges or deterministic correlations among variables. The presented research work on the contrary, is based on the concept of probabilistic validation treatment, based on the conditional probability distribution of multi-dimensional random variables. After the probability space is defined, the conditional probabilities are calculated from historical data and/or prior information, and an estimation of the underlying probability structure is derived. Thus, a generic and consistent validation treatment is feasible, which can then be applied without the overhead of expressing and formally declaring variable-specific validation rules. Obviously, due to the significant number of dimensions as well as the important volume of statistical data, this process can demanding in terms of both computing and data ...
International Business Research, 2015
Over the last decade, the whopping growth of the Chinese economy, due to the liberalization of it... more Over the last decade, the whopping growth of the Chinese economy, due to the liberalization of its market, with regard to the vulnerable Eurozone's economic activity, has led to trade disputes between the two economies. In order to best capture and describe these implications, we attempt to approach their moves and payoffs through a combination of strategic and analytical tools such as zero-sum games and multiple regression models. Data and metadata for both economies were obtained from official sources, mainly the Eurostat and the National Bureau of Statistics of China and used as input in the regression model. Subsequently, the model output was used as input in the zero-sum game. The results of this process pointed out the best strategies that the players should follow in order to avoid great losses.
Advances in Longitudinal Data Methods in Applied Economic Research
Journal of Applied Statistics, 2015
International Journal of Decision Sciences, Risk and Management
Journal of Applied Statistics, 2015
Journal of Urban and Regional Analysis
The present study identifies socioeconomic, political, and institutional factors that shape exten... more The present study identifies socioeconomic, political, and institutional factors that shape extensive budget unbalances in four European Mediterranean countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain), causing significant deficits and a public debt equal to (or above) 120% of their respective Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at the end of 2020. Regression analysis, run on official statistics, demonstrates that the dynamics of fiscal deficits in these countries are largely heterogeneous. This outcome suggests that the various factors and contexts considered here exert different effects in each country. Political factors played an important role in Greece, being less important in Spain, and having a negligible role in both Italy and Portugal. On the contrary, institutional factors were recognized as particularly important in Greece, Italy, and Portugal. Although important almost everywhere, the magnitude of the impact of economic factors also differed across the four countries.
Open Economies Review
The present study identifies economic, political, and institutional variables that influence the ... more The present study identifies economic, political, and institutional variables that influence the distribution of personal incomes in the Eurozone countries facing severe fiscal imbalances, namely Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. Crucially, this paper is the first to investigate the effect of the corrective arm of the Stability and Growth Pact, the so-called Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP), on the income distribution of the aforementioned economies, where EDP was imposed over a long time period. The empirical results of this study show that (i) EDP impact depends on the specific mix of policy measures undertaken and that (ii) a high public debt does not reflect the existence of common factors shaping income distribution in the four Southern European economies. The share of labor income in total income, constitutes a significant determinant of income inequality. However, we find that the relationship between labor share and income inequality is also country-specific, depending on the intrinsic characteristics of each individual economic system.
Regional Statistics
We study the existence, magnitude, and determinants of political budget cycles in Greece over the... more We study the existence, magnitude, and determinants of political budget cycles in Greece over the past 40 years. We find that the Greek economy has been characterised by extensive electorally-motivated cycles, which are not typical of a developed country. However, we show that the corrective fiscal measures imposed by the European institutions in the face of the Greek debt crisis suppressed these pre-electoral fiscal policy manipulations. In particular, the imposition of the Excessive Deficit Procedure of the Stability and Growth Pact reduced the ability of domestic politicians to increase public deficits to the point where it eliminated, albeit only marginally, political budget cycles.
International Business Research, 2014
In 2004, the Greek Commercial Law incorporated the European Union (EU) regulation regarding the m... more In 2004, the Greek Commercial Law incorporated the European Union (EU) regulation regarding the mandatory implementation of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), by all companies listed in Athens Stock Exchange (ASE), for financial years starting January 1 st , 2005. This structural evolution in the accounting regulation framework in Greece resulted in substantial changes in the historical financial information provided by the Greek listed companies. The aim of this paper is to identify significant differences between the IFRS and the Greek General Accepted Accounting Principles (or Greek GAAP). Based on the results of the nonparametric statistical analysis, significant differences were noted in a number of areas of financial statements. Furthermore, we detected the areas of financial statements provided by Greek companies where differences have had major impact.
This paper introduces a formal presentation of sampling process using principles and concepts fro... more This paper introduces a formal presentation of sampling process using principles and concepts from Probability Algebra and Information Theory. Under this model, any sampling scheme defines uniquely a probability measure, illustrated in various examples along with some applications in survey design and management.
Advances in Methodology and Statistics
In this paper we consider inference regarding the ratio of two normal and the ratio of two t-dist... more In this paper we consider inference regarding the ratio of two normal and the ratio of two t-distributed random variables, using both the popular Fieller interval, as well as, exact distributions. We apply these methods to a historical dataset regarding the shape of the Earth, and estimate the Earth's flatness coefficient as a ratio of regression coefficients. We demonstrate the equivalence of the inference using the exact density of this ratio with that using the Fieller interval.
This paper explores Mirror Outlier Detection in For eign Trade data. More specifically it present... more This paper explores Mirror Outlier Detection in For eign Trade data. More specifically it presents the MOD application developed in Eurost at/Unit-G3 that performs detection on data extracted from COMEXT. The Median Absolute Deviation method is used for outlier detection. It illustrates how t he outliers are characterised based on the mirror series. It outlines how MOD handles sort series due to product changes. Also it presents the methodology for classifying ou tlier due to errors in the series dimensions and not in the observation values. Outco me f MOD is presented in graphical form. Technical information on the design a d implementation of the application are given. A new platform for visualisi ng and analysing outlier data, stored in MOD’s repository, is proposed. The visual isation is based on a multidimensional viewer supporting OLAP functions. Data analysis is based on loglinear models for extracting inferences from the da ta.
Culture and Tourism in a Smart, Globalized, and Sustainable World, 2021
Tourism can be a powerful economic growth driver but also a risk to ongoing development of a regi... more Tourism can be a powerful economic growth driver but also a risk to ongoing development of a region or even a country, if not managed correctly. It will only be sustainable if developed and managed considering both visitors and local communities. The aim of this study is to explore open data quantitative analysis through the construction of two composite indicators measuring overtourism and tourism carrying capacity in specific geographical regions. By evaluating these indices in the 13 administrative regions in Greece, one can easily identify regions that are close to saturation level as well as regions that have potential for further tourism development in the country. Hence, these indicators can be a useful tool for planning tourism policy that respects the specificities and the limits of the regions, protecting a destination from overtourism and averting tourism development from becoming an overwhelming constraint to the growth of the region, the well-being of the local populati...
Consistent validation of Statistical Data is an essential prerequisite of any process aiming at e... more Consistent validation of Statistical Data is an essential prerequisite of any process aiming at ensuring the quality and homogeneity of Statistical Information, especially when data are acquired from distributed heterogeneous sources. The ad-hoc, “filter”-like solutions currently used are not sufficient to ensure a systematic and consistent validation process. The present paper provides a framework for the formal definition and classification of validation rules, which in turn is used as the theoretical basis for the definition of abstract data structures, able to hold the rules’ declarations. Thus, the construction of an abstract information model that stores and handles validation rules as metadata becomes feasible. This leads to a declarative formalisation of rules, as opposed to the usual procedural (algorithmic) approach. Furthermore, based on these concepts, the paper describes the implementation of this data model in the form of distributed globally accessible repositories (i...
Data validation, i.e. the process of detecting erroneous, or probably erroneous, values within st... more Data validation, i.e. the process of detecting erroneous, or probably erroneous, values within statistical data sets, is normally done through the application of validation rules, such as ranges or deterministic correlations among variables. The presented research work on the contrary, is based on the concept of probabilistic validation treatment, based on the conditional probability distribution of multi-dimensional random variables. After the probability space is defined, the conditional probabilities are calculated from historical data and/or prior information, and an estimation of the underlying probability structure is derived. Thus, a generic and consistent validation treatment is feasible, which can then be applied without the overhead of expressing and formally declaring variable-specific validation rules. Obviously, due to the significant number of dimensions as well as the important volume of statistical data, this process can demanding in terms of both computing and data ...
International Business Research, 2015
Over the last decade, the whopping growth of the Chinese economy, due to the liberalization of it... more Over the last decade, the whopping growth of the Chinese economy, due to the liberalization of its market, with regard to the vulnerable Eurozone's economic activity, has led to trade disputes between the two economies. In order to best capture and describe these implications, we attempt to approach their moves and payoffs through a combination of strategic and analytical tools such as zero-sum games and multiple regression models. Data and metadata for both economies were obtained from official sources, mainly the Eurostat and the National Bureau of Statistics of China and used as input in the regression model. Subsequently, the model output was used as input in the zero-sum game. The results of this process pointed out the best strategies that the players should follow in order to avoid great losses.
Advances in Longitudinal Data Methods in Applied Economic Research
Journal of Applied Statistics, 2015
International Journal of Decision Sciences, Risk and Management
Journal of Applied Statistics, 2015