Muhammad Amer | Portland State University (original) (raw)

Papers by Muhammad Amer

In the present era characterized by uncertainty, innovation and change, increasing emphasis is be... more In the present era characterized by uncertainty, innovation and change, increasing emphasis is being placed on the use of scenario planning techniques because of its usefulness in times of uncertainty and complexity. Scenario planning outlines the possible futures, stimulates strategic thinking about the future and helps to overcome thinking limitations by presenting multiple futures. Developing Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) based scenarios is a very new approach recently proposed in the literature. FCM is based on causal cognitive map which is an accepted intuitive method. This approach combines the benefits of both qualitative and quantitative analysis. In this study FCM based scenarios are developed for the deployment of wind energy in a developing country to illustrate the usefulness of this approach. This study also describes the utilization of various tools proposed in the scenario planning literature to select and validate raw scenarios. Moreover a comparison of FCM based scenario development approach with other important techniques for developing quantitative scenarios is also presented. 2 978-1-890843-23-6/11/$26.00 ©2011 IEEE

Technology Roadmapping (TRM) is a growing technique widely used for strategy planning and alignin... more Technology Roadmapping (TRM) is a growing technique widely used for strategy planning and aligning technology with overall business objectives. Technology roadmaps are extensively used in many diverse fields at product, technology, industry, company and national levels. An increasing number of articles published on TRM and technology roadmaps indicate that there is a growing attention for TRM among the researchers from academia, industry and government. In this article, an overview of the application of TRM in renewable energy sector has been provided. After survey of the relevant academic literature and industry roadmaps, we tried to group the roadmaps related to the renewable energy technologies into national, industry/sector and organizational level roadmaps. Research findings indicate that goals and objectives of renewable energy roadmaps are different at these three levels. At national level, roadmaps focus on future energy security, energy dependence, energy policy formulation and environment protection. At industry/sector level, roadmaps are used to identify vision, common needs and evaluate barriers, constraints and risks faced by the industry from technical, political and commercial aspects. Organizational roadmap focuses on evaluation and prioritization of R&D projects to achieve the business goals. Similarly different methods, tools and approaches are used to develop roadmaps at different levels. Various other characteristics of these roadmaps are also discussed and analyzed. Research findings also indicate that greater numbers of roadmaps are developed for those renewable energy technologies undergoing rapid growth. Moreover, most of these roadmaps are developed in the regions where more research, development and deployment activities of renewable energy technologies is taking place.

In this paper some renewable energy options for electricity generation for Pakistan are explored ... more In this paper some renewable energy options for electricity generation for Pakistan are explored from multiple perspectives comprising technical, economical, social, environmental and political aspects. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been used for the first time for the energy sector of Pakistan. An AHP model has been presented for the selection and prioritization of various renewable energy technologies for electricity generation. After accessing potential of the country for generating electricity from renewable resources, reviewing relevant scholarly literature and discussion with experts, an appropriate decision model has been formulated consisting of goal, criteria, sub-criteria and alternatives. Wind energy, solar photovoltaic, solar thermal and biomass energy options are used as the alternatives in the decision model. Besides ranking and prioritizing of these technologies, results of the proposed decision model can also be used for the development of long-term renewable energy policy and energy roadmap for the country. The findings of this research might also be highly relevant to other developing countries.

Wind Energy has been existent for many centuries and has advanced in both products and technologi... more Wind Energy has been existent for many centuries and has advanced in both products and technologies. The objective of this study is to identify the future adoption, products, and technologies for Residential and Industrial consumers in a form of a graphical Technology Roadmap. Technology Roadmapping (TRM) is a high level planning tool used for strategy planning, implementation and aligning technologies and products with overall business objectives. The study considered the following aspects as the basis of the roadmap (market drivers): environmental concerns, rising cost and dependency on fossil fuel, business opportunities, government involvement and availability of natural wind resources in the Pacific Northwest (NW). The results of this study show, as implementation and the shift towards renewable energies unfold, specifically wind energy, we will notice a considerable reduction in the fluctuation and high cost of utilities, increased efforts towards the alarming concerns of global warming and environment degradation, evolving technologies, and its products as a dependable alternative energy resource. This paper also highlights the benefits in utilizing wind energy to residential, commercial and industrial consumers within the Pacific NW.