L. Keele | Pennsylvania State University (original) (raw)
Papers by L. Keele
ABSTRACT Presidential campaign visits for members of the House are important events during cam- p... more ABSTRACT Presidential campaign visits for members of the House are important events during cam- paigns. The role of the president in House elections serves a dual purpose. First, it may increase the probability of the president being of the majority party in Congress. Second, it ensures that members of Congress owe some debt to the president. Assessing the eective- ness of such presidential interventions, however, is very dicult. Due to powerful selection eects and unobserved confounding, it is dicult to estimate the eectiveness of these pres- ident campaign visits. Both regression and matching based estimators are ill-suited to this context due to a weak set of observables predicting treatment. In the analysis that follows I use a Manski-type bounds analysis based on Bayesian treatment eects estimator to assess
Randomization in experiments allows researchers to assume that the treatment and con-trol groups ... more Randomization in experiments allows researchers to assume that the treatment and con-trol groups are balanced with respect to all characteristics except the treatment. Random-ization, however, only makes balance probable, and accidental covariate imbalance can ...
American Journal of Political Science, 2007
Journal of Statistical Software, 2014
Lecture Notes in Statistics, 2009
Statistics in Medicine, 2015
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 2015
ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT Presidential campaign visits for members of the House are important events during cam- p... more ABSTRACT Presidential campaign visits for members of the House are important events during cam- paigns. The role of the president in House elections serves a dual purpose. First, it may increase the probability of the president being of the majority party in Congress. Second, it ensures that members of Congress owe some debt to the president. Assessing the eective- ness of such presidential interventions, however, is very dicult. Due to powerful selection eects and unobserved confounding, it is dicult to estimate the eectiveness of these pres- ident campaign visits. Both regression and matching based estimators are ill-suited to this context due to a weak set of observables predicting treatment. In the analysis that follows I use a Manski-type bounds analysis based on Bayesian treatment eects estimator to assess
Randomization in experiments allows researchers to assume that the treatment and con-trol groups ... more Randomization in experiments allows researchers to assume that the treatment and con-trol groups are balanced with respect to all characteristics except the treatment. Random-ization, however, only makes balance probable, and accidental covariate imbalance can ...
American Journal of Political Science, 2007
Journal of Statistical Software, 2014
Lecture Notes in Statistics, 2009
Statistics in Medicine, 2015
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 2015
ABSTRACT