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Papers by Theodore Katsanevas

The modern Greek tragedy, the Grexit,the euro crisis and the currency wars, 2016

In this paper, we support that, mainly Greece and to a lesser degree, the European south is the v... more In this paper, we support that, mainly Greece and to a lesser degree, the European south is the victims of the overvalued euro and of the strict austerity policies imposed under Berlin guidelines. Most of the faster-growing countries support their exports with controlled currency devaluations, as a basic instrument of their independent monetary policy. They follow the Chinese example of implementing proper soft monetary policies, in the light of the present currency wars, mainly between the dollar, the euro and the yen. Greece has surrendered this basic weapon of currency sovereignty to Berlin, whose main concern is the strengthening of the euro, in an effort to verify the German economic and political supremacy. Yet even for the E.U. as a unique entity, this policy appears to be wrong and the virus of stagnation from the south is gradually invading the north. The overvalued euro, the austerity policies of the eurozone, together with the malpractices of the international markets, are mainly to blame. The imposition of an optimal currency area such as the eurozone in totally different economies and without a fair political umbrella has been wrong. For Greece, it has been catastrophic. Our economy is mainly based on tourism that requires a labor-intensive production process. Labor costs can not be compressed below a certain level so that the total production costs will be lower or equal to that of our competitors in the Balkans and the Mediterranean Sea. In front of the deadlock, a properly structured Grexit, temporary or permanent, is the only solution. This should be accompanied by a controlled bankruptcy, a generous cut of debts and extension of their repayment period. The next step is the devaluation of the new drachma initially at 25-30%, as a necessary precondition for regaining the lost competitiveness of the Greek economy. The amount of currency circulation should be controlled properly so as to avoid hyperinflation. Low and medium incomes should be increased eventually at a moderate level and in accordance with the shift towards internal consumption, so as to avoid the dangers of hyperinflation. The strengthening of productive investments and the protection of social welfare are also necessary. Government spending restrictions, the combat of corruption, impunity, bureaucracy and tax evasion, are also necessary for a healthy new beginning.

The balance of supply and demand of professions, 2008

The growing interest for reliable labor market information, able to provide the input for decisi... more The growing interest for reliable labor market information, able to provide the input for decision making, both collective and individual, has led many developed countries to create Labour Market Information systems (LMI) aiming to conduct employment forecasts for various occupations. In this article, we examine the case of Greece and present a new methodology, namely the ‘balance of demand and supply of professions’. This methodology takes into consideration the latest developments in the area of employment and occupational forecasting and data limitations in Greece and introduces a holistic approach, which uses both quantitative and qualitative techniques in order to “balance” the demand for and supply of specific occupations. The results of this assessment are presented with the use of qualitative indices that rank the prospects of approximately 700 occupations across 17 sectors of economic activity. In general, our results suggest a growing demand for highly skilled mainly technical occupations while the demand for low skilled ones, with the exception of those related to trade and commerce, is declining.

Studies in Computational Intelligence, 2008

... labour economics and sociology have, inter alia, contributed: Nikos Fakiolas, Tania Kavroulak... more ... labour economics and sociology have, inter alia, contributed: Nikos Fakiolas, Tania Kavroulaki, Ilias Livanos , Elena Viniou, Maria ... Doukas and the computer scientists: Apostolos Doukas, Nikos Christodoulakis, Chis Alex, Naoum Karaminas, Spyros Trivizas, George Kyprianou. ...

The trend of unemployment in Greece over the last three decades has been similar to other Europea... more The trend of unemployment in Greece over the last three decades has been similar to other European counties. While unemployment in Greece was not a problem before the first oil crisis, its rate accelerated after this point. This article explores the main causes of high unemployment in Greece such as the link of the educational system with the needs of the labour market, the flexibility of the labour market as well as the efficiency of the labour market policies applied so far. The examination of these institutional factors, and their impact in unemployment, lead us to conclude that a large part of the unemployment in Greece is due to structural reasons, and, therefore, microeconomic policies are needed in order to tackle it.

The modern Greek tragedy, the Grexit,the euro crisis and the currency wars, 2016

In this paper, we support that, mainly Greece and to a lesser degree, the European south is the v... more In this paper, we support that, mainly Greece and to a lesser degree, the European south is the victims of the overvalued euro and of the strict austerity policies imposed under Berlin guidelines. Most of the faster-growing countries support their exports with controlled currency devaluations, as a basic instrument of their independent monetary policy. They follow the Chinese example of implementing proper soft monetary policies, in the light of the present currency wars, mainly between the dollar, the euro and the yen. Greece has surrendered this basic weapon of currency sovereignty to Berlin, whose main concern is the strengthening of the euro, in an effort to verify the German economic and political supremacy. Yet even for the E.U. as a unique entity, this policy appears to be wrong and the virus of stagnation from the south is gradually invading the north. The overvalued euro, the austerity policies of the eurozone, together with the malpractices of the international markets, are mainly to blame. The imposition of an optimal currency area such as the eurozone in totally different economies and without a fair political umbrella has been wrong. For Greece, it has been catastrophic. Our economy is mainly based on tourism that requires a labor-intensive production process. Labor costs can not be compressed below a certain level so that the total production costs will be lower or equal to that of our competitors in the Balkans and the Mediterranean Sea. In front of the deadlock, a properly structured Grexit, temporary or permanent, is the only solution. This should be accompanied by a controlled bankruptcy, a generous cut of debts and extension of their repayment period. The next step is the devaluation of the new drachma initially at 25-30%, as a necessary precondition for regaining the lost competitiveness of the Greek economy. The amount of currency circulation should be controlled properly so as to avoid hyperinflation. Low and medium incomes should be increased eventually at a moderate level and in accordance with the shift towards internal consumption, so as to avoid the dangers of hyperinflation. The strengthening of productive investments and the protection of social welfare are also necessary. Government spending restrictions, the combat of corruption, impunity, bureaucracy and tax evasion, are also necessary for a healthy new beginning.

The balance of supply and demand of professions, 2008

The growing interest for reliable labor market information, able to provide the input for decisi... more The growing interest for reliable labor market information, able to provide the input for decision making, both collective and individual, has led many developed countries to create Labour Market Information systems (LMI) aiming to conduct employment forecasts for various occupations. In this article, we examine the case of Greece and present a new methodology, namely the ‘balance of demand and supply of professions’. This methodology takes into consideration the latest developments in the area of employment and occupational forecasting and data limitations in Greece and introduces a holistic approach, which uses both quantitative and qualitative techniques in order to “balance” the demand for and supply of specific occupations. The results of this assessment are presented with the use of qualitative indices that rank the prospects of approximately 700 occupations across 17 sectors of economic activity. In general, our results suggest a growing demand for highly skilled mainly technical occupations while the demand for low skilled ones, with the exception of those related to trade and commerce, is declining.

Studies in Computational Intelligence, 2008

... labour economics and sociology have, inter alia, contributed: Nikos Fakiolas, Tania Kavroulak... more ... labour economics and sociology have, inter alia, contributed: Nikos Fakiolas, Tania Kavroulaki, Ilias Livanos , Elena Viniou, Maria ... Doukas and the computer scientists: Apostolos Doukas, Nikos Christodoulakis, Chis Alex, Naoum Karaminas, Spyros Trivizas, George Kyprianou. ...

The trend of unemployment in Greece over the last three decades has been similar to other Europea... more The trend of unemployment in Greece over the last three decades has been similar to other European counties. While unemployment in Greece was not a problem before the first oil crisis, its rate accelerated after this point. This article explores the main causes of high unemployment in Greece such as the link of the educational system with the needs of the labour market, the flexibility of the labour market as well as the efficiency of the labour market policies applied so far. The examination of these institutional factors, and their impact in unemployment, lead us to conclude that a large part of the unemployment in Greece is due to structural reasons, and, therefore, microeconomic policies are needed in order to tackle it.