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Articles by Kristian Hoelscher

What factors explain attacks on humanitarian aid workers? Most research has tended to describe tr... more What factors explain attacks on humanitarian aid workers? Most research has tended to describe trends rather than analyse the underlying reasons behind attacks. To move this agenda forward, we present to our knowledge the first peer-reviewed cross-national time-series study that identifies factors related to violent attacks on humanitarian aid workers. Our theoretical framework explores two sets of potential explanatory factors: dynamics of conflicts; and the politicization and militarization of humanitarian operations. Using a global sample at the country level from 1997 to 2014, our results suggest that: (i) the presence and severity of armed conflicts are related to increased attacks on aid workers; (ii) aid workers do not appear to face greater risks even where civilians are targeted; (iii) the presence of an international military force does not appear to add to nor decrease risks to aid workers; and (iv) the effects of peacekeeping operations upon humanitarian security are varied. We discuss this in light of the ongoing challenges facing humanitarian organizations to provide security in fragile and conflict-affected areas.

The War on Drugs in Latin America has encouraged a highly militarized yet unsuccessful approach t... more The War on Drugs in Latin America has encouraged a highly militarized yet unsuccessful approach to drug control, leading to violence, displacement and human suffering throughout the region. In response, humanitarian organizations have begun to frame the War on Drugs in the language of “humanitarian crises”. Moreover, they are increasingly labeling violence in Latin American cities as “complex urban emergencies” to facilitate new spaces of humanitarian entry. To contribute to critical conversations in the Latin American drug policy community in the run-up to the April 2016 UN General Assembly Special Session, we consider four policy implications of the strategic use of the humanitarian crisis label in the context of the War on Drugs: the abdication of state responsibility; the ‘invisibilization’ of policy alternatives; the impediment of discussions on regional drug policy; and the sidelining of civil society in favor of international humanitarian actors.

With the election of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014, urban-led economic growth in India was... more With the election of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014, urban-led economic growth in India was firmly framed around a vision of 'smart cities', an ambiguous concept, which promotes the integration of information and communication technologies in cities to improve economic growth, quality of life, governance, mobility and sustainability. Given its current policy importance, this article examines how the smart cities agenda in India has emerged, what it has encompassed and its potential for transformative urban development. Reviewing policy documents and statements in combination with selected key stakeholder interviews, this article traces the emergence of the smart cities discourse in India, suggesting that the vision and concept of the smart city has shifted over time and has been evoked in different ways to serve different purposes. Overall, the smart cities agenda in India appears to be characterized by a failure to conceptualize and develop an integrated set of policies, and while a clearer (yet contested) concept is emerging, the prospects for success are uncertain.

India is in the midst of a transformative urban awakening. The country's 380 million urban popula... more India is in the midst of a transformative urban awakening. The country's 380 million urban population as of 2011 is projected to swell to over 600 million by 2030 and almost 900 million by 2050. These processes of urbanization and urban growth are embedded in and shape complex political, social, demographic, environmental and ethno-religious contexts; and while the developmental advantages to urban modes of living are clear, urbanization in India comes with its own set of challenges. This introduction outlines the current special issue, which collects six articles that reflect on three key themes in contemporary urban India: urban governance and planning; social, economic and political exclusion and the conflicts this may engender; and climate change in Indian cities. Here we briefly contextualise some of these issues, and reflect on some of the cross-cutting themes that individual articles in this issue address. Our hope is that this volume contributes to debates on the dynamics of governance, inclusiveness, security and prosperity in today's urban India.

In June 2015 the Modi government launched the Smart Cities Mission, a major urban development ini... more In June 2015 the Modi government launched the Smart Cities Mission, a major urban development initiative designed to improve living conditions and achieve higher economic growth in 100 cities across the country. The Mission offers the State and city governments yet another opportunity to think creatively and work towards the betterment of their cities. Will India succeed in this venture, and would the future 'smart cities' be equitable and sustainable? This paper examines these questions, raises fundamental concerns and concludes that the goals can be achieved with the fair engagement of citizens and all stakeholders involved.

There is an increasing demand for deploying humanitarian workers to conflict-affected areas. Howe... more There is an increasing demand for deploying humanitarian workers to conflict-affected areas. However, this need has expanded the risk of violent attacks against staff in insecure field settings. In this brief, we identify six country-level factors that can influence attacks on aid workers. These six factors help us to better understand the causes of aid worker attacks, and may ultimately guide towards their prevention in the future. This policy brief is the first from an emerging PRIO research program on Humanitarian Security.

Urban Studies, 2015

The problems of violence in Latin America are often reiterated, yet explanations of how and why v... more The problems of violence in Latin America are often reiterated, yet explanations of how and why violence declines are far less prevalent. Social violence is frequently seen to be exacerbated by the challenges of democratisation, inequality, and urbanisation, yet this article suggests that violence may also be contingent upon the role of institutions. The article explores this contention using a comparative analysis of two cities: Bogotá in Colombia and Recife in Brazil, which have recently seen unusual and marked reductions in lethal violence. Drawing on primary data collection in both cities, case studies suggest that improvements in public security are not consistent with political, economic or demographic conditions, and are instead associated with institutional and social reforms encouraging civic values and commitments to non-violence. While empirical findings are specific to these two cases, the article’s broader theoretical implications plausibly apply to a broader range of cities, and suggest that committed efforts to improve institutions can overcome structural risk factors that foster violence.

How do the political institutional features of developing democracies influence how violence occu... more How do the political institutional features of developing democracies influence how violence occurs? Building on research showing that ‘hybrid democracies’ are more prone to social violence, this article argues that elite competition for power in the context of limited institutional oversight plays an
important role in explaining violence. The framework here presents possible mechanisms linking subnational political dynamics and rates of social violence in poorly institutionalised contexts. It highlights how political competition, concentrated political power, and constraints on cooperation can create opportunity structures where violence is incentivised and the rule of law is undermined. This is examined empirically using sub-national homicide data from over 5000 Brazilian municipalities between 1997 and 2010. Findings suggest violence is greater in contexts that are highly competitive - where political actors face credible challenges and have a more tenuous grip on power - and those where power is highly
concentrated - where political actors have held power for longer periods or face limited credible challenges. Findings also suggest violence varies depending on whether interactions between state and municipal government are likely to be constrained or cooperative; and are consistent with literatures
emphasising the importance of structural explanations of social violence. In light of on-going democratic transitions across the globe, the article highlights the value of understanding links between institutional context, contentious politics and social violence.

Despite problems of violence domestically, Brazil has played a key leadership role as part of MIN... more Despite problems of violence domestically, Brazil has played a key leadership role as part of MINUSTAH peacekeeping operations in Haiti since 2004. This article addresses how Brazil’s international military engagement is shaping domestic approaches to urban security, and what may be the implications of the use of military strategies, operations, and norms to address issues of public security in Brazilian cities. It is argued that current approaches toward urban security employing military-trained peacekeepers actually represent a continuation of old paradigms, yet these recent militarised approaches are likely evolving into newer and potentially more
accountable forms by constraining indiscriminate use of force and establishing a positive state presence in marginal urban areas. As such, the article connects long-established issues of dealing with urban violence in Latin America with ongoing debates in the United States and beyond about post-counterinsurgency approaches to increasingly urban conflict settings. It reflects on potential lessons to be learned from the Latin American perspective, while showing also how these have changed over the last decade. The article concludes that despite the potential utility of force in some urban conflict settings, this approach could entail a normative shift towards legitimising forceful containment of violence, and hinder democratic consolidation in Brazil.

This article explores the relationship between transnationalism and integration by examining the ... more This article explores the relationship between transnationalism and integration by examining the determinants of remittance-sending practices. We base our analysis on the premise that remittance-sending is shaped by a combination of the capacity and the desire of migrants to remit. The capacity to remit depends on access to funds that can be remitted, be it through wages, other income or savings. The desire to remit determines
how remittance-sending is prioritised in relation to alternative expenditures. We assume that capacity is shaped by circumstances in the country of residence while desire depends
on attachment and commitments in both the country of residence and the country of origin. Our analysis is based on survey data on immigrants in Norway (N=3,053). We find that economic integration is important for remittance-sending, and point to different mechanisms through which this effect could operate. Migrants’ socio-cultural integration, however, appears not to have significant effects on remittance-sending. Our approach and results illustrate how different aspects of integration can have divergent impacts on transnationalism.

Why are some countries more prone to social violence than others? Despite the fact that annual de... more Why are some countries more prone to social violence than others? Despite the fact that annual deaths due to homicides worldwide outnumber those due to organized armed conflict by a factor of roughly 3 to 1, this question has received very little attention from conflict and development specialists in recent years. As a modest first step in addressing this gap in the literature we draw together insights from the conflict and criminology literatures to develop a model of social violence that accounts for both political-institutional and socio-economic factors. While there is an extensive literature on the socio-economic determinants of social violence, there are only a handful of studies that consider the significance of political-institutional arrangements. Using cross-country estimates of homicides produced by the World Health Organization as an indicator of social violence, we test our model using OLS regression analysis for a sample of more than 120 countries. We find that countries with ‘hybrid’ political orders experience
higher rates of social violence than those with strong autocratic or strong democratic regimes, and that weakly institutionalized
democracies are particularly violent. We also find robust associations between indicators of poverty, inequality and ethnic diversity and social violence. These results indicate that social and political violence share some common underlying causes. We conclude by suggesting that the apparent global decline in organized armed conflict and the concomitant rise in social violence in recent decades may be linked to world urbanization and the ‘third wave’ of democratization in the global South, although further research is required to confirm this hypothesis.

By 2050, two thirds of the world’s population will live in cities, and the greatest growth in urb... more By 2050, two thirds of the world’s population will live in cities, and the greatest growth in urban populations will take place in the least developed countries. This presents many governments with considerable challenges related to urban governance and the provision of services and opportunities to a burgeoning urban population. In the current article, we use a new event dataset on city-level urban social disorder, drawing upon prominent theories in the conflict literature. The dataset spans the 1960–2009 period, covering 55 major cities in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa and includes data on nonviolent actions such as demonstrations and strikes and violent political actions like riots, terrorism, and armed conflict. We find that urban social disorder is associated in particular with low economic growth rates and hybrid democratic regimes, while
level of development, economic inequality, large youth bulges, and economic globalization do not seem to affect levels of urban social disorder.

India’s rapid economic growth over the last decade has been coupled with a Maoist insurgency that... more India’s rapid economic growth over the last decade has been coupled with a Maoist insurgency that competes with the state for rural allegiance. In response to the threat, the Government of India has securitized development, using public works programmes in an attempt to sway locals away from Maoist allegiance. However, these areas are also home to massive iron and coal mines that drive India’s growth. This study aims to address the lack of local-level analysis and the lack of a robust dataset by merging qualitative fieldwork with disparate district-level conflict data sources to explore different potential explanatory variables for the Maoist insurgency, including the relationship between development works, violence, and
natural resource extraction. We find that while effective implementation of development programmes is loosely related to the immediate suppression of violent activities in Maoist-affected districts, and under certain conditions mining activity increases the likelihood for conflict, it is the presence of scheduled caste and tribal communities that is the best predictor of violence.

Felani wore her gold bridal jewelry as she crouched out of sight inside the squalid concrete buil... more Felani wore her gold bridal jewelry as she crouched out of sight inside the squalid concrete building. The 15-year-old’s father, Nurul Islam, peeked cautiously out the window and scanned the steel and barbed wire fence that demarcates the border between India and Bangladesh. The fence was the last obstacle to Felani’s wedding, arranged for a week later in her family’s ancestral village just across the border in Bangladesh.

Papers by Kristian Hoelscher

Urban Studies, Jun 10, 2015

International Small Business Journal, Dec 13, 2021

Economic crises, natural disasters, armed conflict and infectious disease outbreaks, amongst othe... more Economic crises, natural disasters, armed conflict and infectious disease outbreaks, amongst others, present interlinked challenges for small businesses and have generated a recent wealth of research across varied fields. Therefore, this article outlines an analytical lens suggesting how SMEs experience shocks and crises that focuses on the interlinked nature of (i) the business, (ii) the shock and (iii) the response within a given context. We thematically draw out key trends, knowledge gaps and tensions and highlight promising research and engagement avenues for future scholarship and practice. We contextualise (i) how small businesses are distinct from large firms in how they experience shock and crisis events; (ii) how different types of crises impact small business; (iii) how shocks and crises shape SME-specific responses and (iv) how the COVID-19 pandemic as a ‘novel exogenous shock’ influences all of the above. We conclude by emphasising emerging knowledge avenues for future small business, shock and crisis research.

Latin American Perspectives, Dec 9, 2016

International Studies Perspectives, Nov 26, 2022

Urban Studies, 2015

Urban Studies, Jun 10, 2015

International Small Business Journal, Dec 13, 2021

Latin American Perspectives, Dec 9, 2016

International Studies Perspectives, Nov 26, 2022

Innovation and development, Jul 10, 2017

Social Science Research Network, Jan 5, 2017

India’s rapid economic growth over the last decade has been coupled with a Maoist insurgency that... more India’s rapid economic growth over the last decade has been coupled with a Maoist insurgency that competes for the allegiances of rural populations with the state. In response to the threat, the Government of India has securitized development, using public works programs in an attempt to sway locals away from Maoist allegiance. However, these areas are also home to massive iron, coal, and steel factories that drive India’s growth. This study uniquely aimed to address the lack of local-level analysis and the lack of a robust dataset by merging previous qualitative fieldwork with disparate conflict data sources at the district level to explore different potential explanatory variables for the Maoist insurgency, including the relationship between development works, violence, and natural resource extraction. We find that while effective implementation of development programs like NREGA may indeed be loosely related to the suppression of violent activities in districts affected by the Maoist conflict, it is the presence of significant mining activity that is the best predictor of violence.

International Peacekeeping, May 17, 2017

International Small Business Journal: Researching Entrepreneurship

Latin American Perspectives, 2016

The War on Drugs has had grave humanitarian consequences for Latin America. It has encouraged a h... more The War on Drugs has had grave humanitarian consequences for Latin America. It has encouraged a highly militarized and ultimately unsuccessful approach to drug control, leading to violence, displacement, and human suffering throughout the region. In acknowledging and responding to this suffering, humanitarian organizations have recently begun to frame this situation as a “humanitarian crisis” to facilitate humanitarian entry into new spaces. There is a need for a conceptual conversation about the use of the label “humanitarian crisis” in reference to the human costs of the War on Drugs in Latin America, particularly its rhetorical and normative use by the media and civil society and its strategic and moral use by humanitarian actors.La Guerra contra las Drogas ha tenido grave consecuencias humanitarias para América Latina. Ha promovido un enfoque altamente militarizado y en última instancia fallido, para controlar las drogas, lo que ha provocado violencia, desplazamientos y sufrimie...

Harvard international review

The global shift from rural to urban living will be the most important demographic transformation... more The global shift from rural to urban living will be the most important demographic transformation of the 21st century. All great shifts create the opportunity for great fortunes, especially for those with audacious visions who are positioned to capitalize. Indian industrialist Ajit Gulabchand runs Hindustan Construction Company (HCC), which is responsible for some of the country's most iconic infrastructure projects. In what might be the single biggest bet in the history of Indian real estate, Gulabchand has staked HCC's future – and his own family fortune – on a cluster of five planned cities perched along artificial fjords about four hours east of Mumbai. He calls it Lavasa. 300 million people are projected to move into India's already overcrowded cities over the next quarter-century. Lavasa is Gulabchand's US$6 billion dollar attempt to capitalize on this demographic shift – and turn a profit in the process. He even modeled Dasve, the first of Lavasa's five ci...

International Area Studies Review, 2012

India’s rapid economic growth over the last decade has been coupled with a Maoist insurgency that... more India’s rapid economic growth over the last decade has been coupled with a Maoist insurgency that competes with the state for rural allegiance. In response to the threat, the Government of India has securitized development, using public works programmes in an attempt to sway locals away from Maoist allegiance. However, these areas are also home to massive iron and coal mines that drive India’s growth. This study aims to address the lack of local-level analysis and the lack of a robust dataset by merging qualitative fieldwork with disparate district-level conflict data sources to explore different potential explanatory variables for the Maoist insurgency, including the relationship between development works, violence, and natural resource extraction. We find that while effective implementation of development programmes is loosely related to the immediate suppression of violent activities in Maoist-affected districts, and under certain conditions mining activity increases the likeliho...

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2014

ABSTRACT With Kristian Hoelscher Accessible under: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2461064 The problems ... more ABSTRACT With Kristian Hoelscher Accessible under: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2461064 The problems of violence in Latin America are often reiterated, yet explanations of how and why violence declines are far less prevalent. Social violence is frequently seen to be exacerbated by the challenges of democratisation, inequality, and urbanisation, yet this article suggests that violence may also be contingent upon the role of institutions. The article explores this contention using a comparative analysis of two cities: Bogotá in Colombia and Recife in Brazil, which have recently seen unusual and marked reductions in lethal violence. Drawing on primary data collection in both cities, case studies suggest that improvements in public security are not consistent with political, economic or demographic conditions, and are instead associated with institutional and social reforms encouraging civic values and commitments to non-violence. While empirical findings are specific to these two cases, the article’s broader theoretical implications plausibly apply to a broader range of cities, and suggest that committed efforts to improve institutions can overcome structural risk factors that foster violence.

Journal of Peace Research, 2012

African Affairs, Jul 27, 2023

Urbanization is transforming the human and political geography of Africa. While a growing body of... more Urbanization is transforming the human and political geography of Africa. While a growing body of research explores the urban dimensions of clientelism, contentious action, and social mobilization, there has been less attention given to the ways in which this demographic megatrend is influencing political change more broadly. We argue that the political implications of African urbanization are contingent on local conditions and experiences; there are no deterministic associations between urbanization and political change. To better understand the mechanisms linking urbanization to politics, we argue that a place-based approach is needed. We illustrate this by reviewing and highlighting how urbanization may affect (i) the nature and balance of citizen preferences; (ii) the composition, interests, and influence of elite actors; (iii) forms of political mobilization; (iv) shifting gender roles; (v) the role of civil society in political processes; and (vi) the likelihood and manifestations of contentious collective action. We conclude with a discussion of directions for further research.

ERN: Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances (Topic), 2017

India’s rapid economic growth over the last decade has been coupled with a Maoist insurgency that... more India’s rapid economic growth over the last decade has been coupled with a Maoist insurgency that competes for the allegiances of rural populations with the state. In response to the threat, the Government of India has securitized development, using public works programs in an attempt to sway locals away from Maoist allegiance. However, these areas are also home to massive iron, coal, and steel factories that drive India’s growth. This study uniquely aimed to address the lack of local-level analysis and the lack of a robust dataset by merging previous qualitative fieldwork with disparate conflict data sources at the district level to explore different potential explanatory variables for the Maoist insurgency, including the relationship between development works, violence, and natural resource extraction. We find that while effective implementation of development programs like NREGA may indeed be loosely related to the suppression of violent activities in districts affected by the Ma...

What are the relationships between and among small businesses, conflict, and peaceful development... more What are the relationships between and among small businesses, conflict, and peaceful development in contexts of urban violence? Here, the complex formal and informal divisions of economic, political and social power, authority, and legitimacy – and the many grey areas between legality and illegality, necessity and opportunism – create challenging conditions for business operations and for peacebuilding. A grounded understanding is required if peace- and development-positive interventions are to be successful. Yet both the peacebuilding and development potential of micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), and the specific dynamics of business and conflict in urban spaces, are underdeveloped in the literature assessing and promoting business potential to catalyse positive change. We therefore extract from a broad range of literature a typology representing the weight of the extant frameworks for understanding MSMEs in contexts of urban violence. We then use primary research to c...

How can we foster more socially responsible pro-peace innovations that also have deeper impact? I... more How can we foster more socially responsible pro-peace innovations that also have deeper impact? In arguing that incorporating contextual, area-specific and conflict-sensitive guidance enhances the quality and depth of innovation, this article calls for a new research approach on Peace Innovation (PI). This approach could help overcome four existing challenges: expanding the scholar–entrepreneur–policy triad of PI; prioritizing ethical, culturally sensitive engagement; designing innovation to more clearly deliver positive impacts in conflict environments; and glocalizing the PI playing field. We then explore five thematic areas where PI can be impactful: forecasting political economies of conflict; business and virtual peacebuilding; climate and environmentalism; migration and identity; and urbanization. Finally, we discuss how to operationalize such partnerships, moving the theoretical discussion on PI forward for both the peacebuilding and innovation communities. Pushing research f...

Conflict, Security & Development

Peace and conflict studies knowledge has dramatically expanded over the last 25 years. Scholars k... more Peace and conflict studies knowledge
has dramatically expanded over the last
25 years. Scholars know much more
about why conflicts start, and how they
can be prevented. In parallel, innovation
and technology actors have begun to
engage with issues of peace and conflict.
Yet cooperation between these actors is
still relatively rare. We argue that there
are important synergies that can foster
peace-positive innovation in order to develop
mechanisms and technologies to
support human security and peacebuilding.
We outline five steps to move the
peace innovation agenda forward.

What factors explain attacks on humanitarian aid workers? Most research has either tended to desc... more What factors explain attacks on humanitarian aid workers? Most research has either tended to describe trends rather than analyse the reasons underlying attacks, or lacks the empirical evidence to support causal assertions. In moving this agenda forward, we present to our knowledge the first cross-national time-series study that identifies factors related to violent attacks on humanitarian aid workers. Drawing on security, civil conflict, and criminal violence literatures, our theoretical framework explores three groups of potential explanatory factors: dynamics of conflict; the political economic context; and aspects of humanitarian sector operations. Using a global sample at the country-level from 1997-2014, we identify factors related to lethal and non-lethal attacks on humanitarian workers. Our results indicate that the presence and severity of armed conflicts are related to increased attacks on aid workers, but neither conflicts that actively target civilians nor levels of criminal violence increase risks to humanitarian workers. We also find more economically developed and politically stable countries are safer for aid workers, and that the presence of an international military force does not add to aid worker risk.

Journal of Peace Research