Estimation of epidemic size and incubation time based on age characteristics of vCJD in the United Kingdom - PubMed (original) (raw)
. 2001 Nov 23;294(5547):1726-8.
doi: 10.1126/science.1066838.
Affiliations
- PMID: 11721058
- DOI: 10.1126/science.1066838
Estimation of epidemic size and incubation time based on age characteristics of vCJD in the United Kingdom
A J Valleron et al. Science. 2001.
Abstract
The size of the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD) epidemic in the United Kingdom is a major public health concern and a subject of speculation. The cases are young (mean age = 28). Assuming that the risk of developing the disease in susceptible exposed subjects decreases exponentially with age after age 15, that all infections occurred between 1980 and 1989, and that the distribution of the incubation period is lognormal, we estimate that the mean duration of the incubation period is 16.7 years [95% confidence interval (CI): 12.4 to 23.2] and that the total number of cases will be 205 (upper limit of the 95% CI: 403).
Comment in
- Epidemiology. Predicting the unpredictable.
Medley GF. Medley GF. Science. 2001 Nov 23;294(5547):1663-4. doi: 10.1126/science.1067669. Science. 2001. PMID: 11721038 No abstract available.
Similar articles
- Predictability of the UK variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease epidemic.
d'Aignaux JN, Cousens SN, Smith PG. d'Aignaux JN, et al. Science. 2001 Nov 23;294(5547):1729-31. doi: 10.1126/science.1064748. Epub 2001 Oct 25. Science. 2001. PMID: 11679631 - Epidemiology. Predicting the unpredictable.
Medley GF. Medley GF. Science. 2001 Nov 23;294(5547):1663-4. doi: 10.1126/science.1067669. Science. 2001. PMID: 11721038 No abstract available. - Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease.
Will R. Will R. Folia Neuropathol. 2004;42 Suppl A:77-83. Folia Neuropathol. 2004. PMID: 15449462 Review. - Bovine spongiform encephalopathy and variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease: a risk analysis.
Liberski PP. Liberski PP. Folia Neuropathol. 2000;38(4):143-50. Folia Neuropathol. 2000. PMID: 11693716 Review.
Cited by
- A review of back-calculation techniques and their potential to inform mitigation strategies with application to non-transmissible acute infectious diseases.
Egan JR, Hall IM. Egan JR, et al. J R Soc Interface. 2015 May 6;12(106):20150096. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2015.0096. J R Soc Interface. 2015. PMID: 25977955 Free PMC article. Review. - Recent US Case of Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease-Global Implications.
Maheshwari A, Fischer M, Gambetti P, Parker A, Ram A, Soto C, Concha-Marambio L, Cohen Y, Belay ED, Maddox RA, Mead S, Goodman C, Kass JS, Schonberger LB, Hussein HM. Maheshwari A, et al. Emerg Infect Dis. 2015 May;21(5):750-9. doi: 10.3201/eid2105.142017. Emerg Infect Dis. 2015. PMID: 25897712 Free PMC article. - Peripheral tissue involvement in sporadic, iatrogenic, and variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease: an immunohistochemical, quantitative, and biochemical study.
Head MW, Ritchie D, Smith N, McLoughlin V, Nailon W, Samad S, Masson S, Bishop M, McCardle L, Ironside JW. Head MW, et al. Am J Pathol. 2004 Jan;164(1):143-53. doi: 10.1016/S0002-9440(10)63105-7. Am J Pathol. 2004. PMID: 14695328 Free PMC article. - Epidemiological evidence of higher susceptibility to vCJD in the young.
Boëlle PY, Cesbron JY, Valleron AJ. Boëlle PY, et al. BMC Infect Dis. 2004 Aug 10;4:26. doi: 10.1186/1471-2334-4-26. BMC Infect Dis. 2004. PMID: 15304199 Free PMC article. - Human prion diseases in the United States.
Holman RC, Belay ED, Christensen KY, Maddox RA, Minino AM, Folkema AM, Haberling DL, Hammett TA, Kochanek KD, Sejvar JJ, Schonberger LB. Holman RC, et al. PLoS One. 2010 Jan 1;5(1):e8521. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0008521. PLoS One. 2010. PMID: 20049325 Free PMC article.
MeSH terms
LinkOut - more resources
Full Text Sources
Other Literature Sources
Medical