A water resources threshold and its implications for food security - PubMed (original) (raw)
. 2003 Jul 15;37(14):3048-54.
doi: 10.1021/es0263689.
Affiliations
- PMID: 12901649
- DOI: 10.1021/es0263689
A water resources threshold and its implications for food security
Hong Yang et al. Environ Sci Technol. 2003.
Abstract
Cereal import has played a crucial role in compensating local water deficit. A quantitative account of water deficit and cereal import relations therefore is of significance for predicting future food import demand and formulating corresponding national and international policies. On the basis of data for countries in Asia and Africa, we estimated a water resources threshold with respect to cereal import. Below the threshold, the demand for cereal import increases exponentially with decreasing water resources. There appeared to be a declining trend in the threshold, from 2000 m3/(capita year) in the early 1980s to 1500 m3/(capita year) by the end of the 1990s. Until recently, most countries below the threshold were oil-rich and thus were able to afford cereal import. However, the next 30 yr may see many poor and populous countries dropping below the threshold in association with their rapid population growth and the depletion of fossil groundwater. Water deficit-induced food insecurity and starvation could intensify because cereal import may not be affordable for these countries.
Comment in
- Declining water resources raise food concerns.
Schipper O. Schipper O. Environ Sci Technol. 2003 Aug 1;37(15):273A-274A. doi: 10.1021/es0325260. Environ Sci Technol. 2003. PMID: 12966952 No abstract available.
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