Prognostic factors for severe acute respiratory syndrome: a clinical analysis of 165 cases - PubMed (original) (raw)

. 2004 Feb 15;38(4):483-9.

doi: 10.1086/380973. Epub 2004 Jan 28.

Yongping Yang, Jumei Chen, Shaojie Xin, Wei Zhang, Xianzhi Zhou, Yuanli Mao, Liangping Hu, Daojian Liu, Binxia Chang, Weihua Chang, Yanping Liu, Xuemei Ma, Yedong Wang, Xiqing Liu

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Prognostic factors for severe acute respiratory syndrome: a clinical analysis of 165 cases

Zhengsheng Zou et al. Clin Infect Dis. 2004.

Abstract

This study analyzes single factors that affect the prognosis of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and establishes a prognosis model by multivariate analysis. We retrospectively analyzed the clinical features of SARS in 165 clinically confirmed severe cases. Both age and existence of other diseases before SARS were significantly correlated with prognosis (r=0.506 and r=0.457, respectively; P<.001). During the acute phase of SARS, lactate dehydrogenase level, degree of hypoxemia, respiratory rate, alpha -hydroxybutyric dehydrogenase level, creatine kinase isoenzyme-MB, platelet count, and number of involved lobes noted on chest radiographs, and so on, correlated markedly with the prognosis (r=0.257-0.788; P<.05). The multivariate prognosis regression model was associated with degree of hypoxemia and platelet count. The model was defined by the formula Py=1=es/(1+es), where S is [2.490 x degree of hypoxemia]-[0.050 x number of platelets], and it had a high sensitivity (91.67%), specificity (98.33%), and accuracy (96.42%). The model could be used to effectively judge the state of illness and the prognosis.

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Figures

Table 1

Table 1

Comparison between the criteria for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and severe SARS promulgated by Chinese Ministry of Health and the criteria for SARS promulgated by the World Health Organization (WHO).

Table 2

Table 2

Relationship between factors observed during the advanced stage of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the prognosis for SARS.

Table 3

Table 3

Laboratory values for peripheral blood during the acute phase of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 165 patients with severe SARS.

Table 4

Table 4

Findings of multivariate analysis of factors affecting prognosis for 165 patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).

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