Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics - PubMed (original) (raw)
Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics
Jonathan Dushoff et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2004.
Abstract
Influenza incidence exhibits strong seasonal fluctuations in temperate regions throughout the world, concentrating the mortality and morbidity burden of the disease into a few months each year. The cause of influenza's seasonality has remained elusive. Here we show that the large oscillations in incidence may be caused by undetectably small seasonal changes in the influenza transmission rate that are amplified by dynamical resonance.
Figures
Fig. 1.
The effect of seasonal forcing on oscillations in influenza incidence. We simulate disease dynamics in a population of 500,000 people both with (blue) and without (red) demographic stochasticity. varies sinusoidally between 9.6 and 10.4. The black curve shows the (nearly invisible) oscillations in incidence that these variations in would cause if disease dynamics responded instantaneously to changes in transmission, without resonance or transient fluctuations. (a) Weak resonance. The intrinsic oscillatory period is T ≈ 0.59 years (duration of infectiousness 0.02 yr, duration of immunity 4 yr). (b) Strong resonance. T ≈ 0.94 yr (duration of infectiousness 0.025 yr, duration of immunity 8 yr). When parameters are drawn at random from the ranges given for , D, and L in the text, we find strong oscillations due to resonance (winter peak/summer trough >5) for 21% of parameter sets (Fig. 2).
Fig. 2.
Magnitude of observed oscillations (ratio of peak-to-trough incidence) in the stochastic forced SIRS epidemic model plotted against the approximated period of endogenous oscillations in the SIRS model , for 2,000 sets of parameters randomly chosen from the ranges given in the text (shown are the 1,560 trials where the disease persisted for at least 20 years after being started from the deterministic equilibrium). Underlying variation in transmission rate is ± 4% (i.e., β1 = 0.04 in Eq. 3). Strong resonance occurs when the approximate endogenous period is near 1 year.
Similar articles
- Relationship between humidity and influenza A viability in droplets and implications for influenza's seasonality.
Yang W, Elankumaran S, Marr LC. Yang W, et al. PLoS One. 2012;7(10):e46789. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0046789. Epub 2012 Oct 3. PLoS One. 2012. PMID: 23056454 Free PMC article. - Driving factors of influenza transmission in the Netherlands.
te Beest DE, van Boven M, Hooiveld M, van den Dool C, Wallinga J. te Beest DE, et al. Am J Epidemiol. 2013 Nov 1;178(9):1469-77. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwt132. Epub 2013 Sep 12. Am J Epidemiol. 2013. PMID: 24029683 - Global influenza seasonality: reconciling patterns across temperate and tropical regions.
Tamerius J, Nelson MI, Zhou SZ, Viboud C, Miller MA, Alonso WJ. Tamerius J, et al. Environ Health Perspect. 2011 Apr;119(4):439-45. doi: 10.1289/ehp.1002383. Epub 2010 Nov 19. Environ Health Perspect. 2011. PMID: 21097384 Free PMC article. Review. - Seasonality of influenza in Brazil: a traveling wave from the Amazon to the subtropics.
Alonso WJ, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Hirano EW, Daufenbach LZ, Miller MA. Alonso WJ, et al. Am J Epidemiol. 2007 Jun 15;165(12):1434-42. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwm012. Epub 2007 Mar 16. Am J Epidemiol. 2007. PMID: 17369609 - Dynamic patterns of avian and human influenza in east and southeast Asia.
Park AW, Glass K. Park AW, et al. Lancet Infect Dis. 2007 Aug;7(8):543-8. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(07)70186-X. Lancet Infect Dis. 2007. PMID: 17646027 Review.
Cited by
- Forecasting of influenza activity and associated hospital admission burden and estimating the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on 2019/20 winter season in Hong Kong.
Lau YC, Shan S, Wang D, Chen D, Du Z, Lau EHY, He D, Tian L, Wu P, Cowling BJ, Ali ST. Lau YC, et al. PLoS Comput Biol. 2024 Jul 31;20(7):e1012311. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012311. eCollection 2024 Jul. PLoS Comput Biol. 2024. PMID: 39083536 Free PMC article. - Descriptive analysis to assess seasonal patterns of COVID-19 and influenza in low-income and middle-income countries in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America.
Kyaw MH, Spinardi JR, Jagun O, Franco Villalobos C, Kapetanakis V, Sharf-Williams R, Yarnoff B. Kyaw MH, et al. BMJ Open. 2024 Jan 31;14(1):e081019. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-081019. BMJ Open. 2024. PMID: 38296298 Free PMC article. - LSTM-based recurrent neural network provides effective short term flu forecasting.
Amendolara AB, Sant D, Rotstein HG, Fortune E. Amendolara AB, et al. BMC Public Health. 2023 Sep 14;23(1):1788. doi: 10.1186/s12889-023-16720-6. BMC Public Health. 2023. PMID: 37710241 Free PMC article. - The association between ambient pollutants and influenza transmissibility: A nationwide study involving 30 provinces in China.
Yang J, Fan G, Zhang L, Zhang T, Xu Y, Feng L, Yang W. Yang J, et al. Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2023 Jul 23;17(7):e13177. doi: 10.1111/irv.13177. eCollection 2023 Jul. Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2023. PMID: 37492239 Free PMC article. - COVID-19 infection, reinfection, and the transition to endemicity.
Cohen C, Pulliam J. Cohen C, et al. Lancet. 2023 Mar 11;401(10379):798-800. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)02634-4. Epub 2023 Feb 16. Lancet. 2023. PMID: 36930672 Free PMC article. No abstract available.
References
- Earn, D. J. D., Dushoff, J. & Levin, S. A. (2002) Trends Ecol. Evol. 17, 334-340.
- Huntington, E. (1920) Ecology 1, 6-23.
- Schulman, J. L. & Kilbourne, E. D. (1962) Nature 195, 1129-1130. - PubMed
- Anderson, R. M. & May, R. M. (1991) Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control (Oxford Science, Oxford).
- Nelson, R. J., Demas, G. E., Klein, S. L. & Kriegsfeld, L. J. (2002) Seasonal Patterns of Stress, Immune Function and Disease (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge).
Publication types
MeSH terms
LinkOut - more resources
Full Text Sources
Other Literature Sources
Medical