Estimating infectious diseases incidence: validity of capture-recapture analysis and truncated models for incomplete count data - PubMed (original) (raw)

Estimating infectious diseases incidence: validity of capture-recapture analysis and truncated models for incomplete count data

N A H van Hest et al. Epidemiol Infect. 2008 Jan.

Abstract

Capture-recapture analysis has been used to evaluate infectious disease surveillance. Violation of the underlying assumptions can jeopardize the validity of the capture-recapture estimates and a tool is needed for cross-validation. We re-examined 19 datasets of log-linear model capture-recapture studies on infectious disease incidence using three truncated models for incomplete count data as alternative population estimators. The truncated models yield comparable estimates to independent log-linear capture-recapture models and to parsimonious log-linear models when the number of patients is limited, or the ratio between patients registered once and twice is between 0.5 and 1.5. Compared to saturated log-linear models the truncated models produce considerably lower and often more plausible estimates. We conclude that for estimating infectious disease incidence independent and parsimonious three-source log-linear capture-recapture models are preferable but truncated models can be used as a heuristic tool to identify possible failure in log-linear models, especially when saturated log-linear models are selected.

PubMed Disclaimer

Similar articles

• Bayesian estimation of a cancer population by capture-recapture with individual capture heterogeneity and small sample.
  Bailly L, Daurès JP, Dunais B, Pradier C. Bailly L, et al. BMC Med Res Methodol. 2015 Apr 24;15:39. doi: 10.1186/s12874-015-0029-7. BMC Med Res Methodol. 2015. PMID: 25902941 Free PMC article.
• Capture-recapture models including covariate effects.
  Tilling K, Sterne JA. Tilling K, et al. Am J Epidemiol. 1999 Feb 15;149(4):392-400. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a009825. Am J Epidemiol. 1999. PMID: 10025483
• Capture-recapture to estimate completeness of tuberculosis surveillance in two communities in South Africa.
  Dunbar R, van Hest R, Lawrence K, Verver S, Enarson DA, Lombard C, Beyers N, Barnes JM. Dunbar R, et al. Int J Tuberc Lung Dis. 2011 Aug;15(8):1038-43. doi: 10.5588/ijtld.10.0695. Int J Tuberc Lung Dis. 2011. PMID: 21740665

Cited by

• Completeness of hepatitis, brucellosis, syphilis, measles and HIV/AIDS surveillance in Izmir, Turkey.
  Durusoy R, Karababa AO. Durusoy R, et al. BMC Public Health. 2010 Feb 17;10:71. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-10-71. BMC Public Health. 2010. PMID: 20158922 Free PMC article.
• A mixture model with Poisson and zero-truncated Poisson components to analyze road traffic accidents in Turkey.
  Ünlü HK, Young DS, Yiğiter A, Hilal Özcebe L. Ünlü HK, et al. J Appl Stat. 2020 Nov 6;49(4):1003-1017. doi: 10.1080/02664763.2020.1843610. eCollection 2022. J Appl Stat. 2020. PMID: 35707813 Free PMC article.
• Record-linkage and capture-recapture analysis to estimate the incidence and completeness of reporting of tuberculosis in England 1999-2002.
  VAN Hest NA, Story A, Grant AD, Antoine D, Crofts JP, Watson JM. VAN Hest NA, et al. Epidemiol Infect. 2008 Dec;136(12):1606-16. doi: 10.1017/S0950268808000496. Epub 2008 Mar 17. Epidemiol Infect. 2008. PMID: 18346285 Free PMC article.
• Estimation of the population size of Canadian commercial poultry farms by log-linear capture-recapture analysis.
  El Allaki F, Christensen J, Vallières A, Paré J. El Allaki F, et al. Can J Vet Res. 2014 Oct;78(4):267-73. Can J Vet Res. 2014. PMID: 25355995 Free PMC article.
• Measuring underreporting and under-ascertainment in infectious disease datasets: a comparison of methods.
  Gibbons CL, Mangen MJ, Plass D, Havelaar AH, Brooke RJ, Kramarz P, Peterson KL, Stuurman AL, Cassini A, Fèvre EM, Kretzschmar ME; Burden of Communicable diseases in Europe (BCoDE) consortium. Gibbons CL, et al. BMC Public Health. 2014 Feb 11;14:147. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-14-147. BMC Public Health. 2014. PMID: 24517715 Free PMC article.

References

1. 1. International Working Group for Disease Monitoring and Forecasting. Capture-recapture and multiple-record estimation I: history and theoretical development. American Journal of Epidemiology. 1995;142:1047–1058. - PubMed
2. 1. LaPorte RE et al. Efficiency and accuracy of disease monitoring systems: application of capture-recapture methods to injury monitoring. American Journal of Epidemiology. 1995;142:1069–1077. ; 15; - PubMed
3. 1. Orton H, Richard R, Miller L. Using active medical record review and capture-recapture methods to investigate the prevalence of Down Syndrome among live-born infants in Colorado. Teratology. 2001;64:S14–19. - PubMed
4. 1. EURODIAB ACE Study Group. Variation and trends in incidence of childhood diabetes in Europe. Lancet. 2000;355:873–876. - PubMed
5. 1. McClish D, Penberthy L. Using Medicare data to estimate the number of cases missed by a cancer registry: a 3-source capture-recapture model. Medical Care. 2004;42:1111–1116. - PubMed

Publication types

MeSH terms

LinkOut - more resources

• Full Text Sources

  • Cambridge University Press
  • Ovid Technologies, Inc.
  • PubMed Central