The effect of geographic range on extinction risk during background and mass extinction - PubMed (original) (raw)

The effect of geographic range on extinction risk during background and mass extinction

Jonathan L Payne et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2007.

Abstract

Wide geographic range is generally thought to buffer taxa against extinction, but the strength of this effect has not been investigated for the great majority of the fossil record. Although the majority of genus extinctions have occurred between major mass extinctions, little is known about extinction selectivity regimes during these "background" intervals. Consequently, the question of whether selectivity regimes differ between background and mass extinctions is largely unresolved. Using logistic regression, we evaluated the selectivity of genus survivorship with respect to geographic range by using a global database of fossil benthic marine invertebrates spanning the Cambrian through the Neogene periods, an interval of approximately 500 My. Our results show that wide geographic range has been significantly and positively associated with survivorship for the great majority of Phanerozoic time. Moreover, the significant association between geographic range and survivorship remains after controlling for differences in species richness and abundance among genera. However, mass extinctions and several second-order extinction events exhibit less geographic range selectivity than predicted by range alone. Widespread environmental disturbance can explain the reduced association between geographic range and extinction risk by simultaneously affecting genera with similar ecological and physiological characteristics on global scales. Although factors other than geographic range have certainly affected extinction risk during many intervals, geographic range is likely the most consistently significant predictor of extinction risk in the marine fossil record.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Fig. 1.

Fig. 1.

Phanerozoic trends in the geographic range selectivity of genus survivorship. Log-odds of zero indicate no association, positive log-odds indicate a positive association between geographic range and extinction risk, and negative log-odds indicate an inverse association. Note that selectivity is least pronounced at times of major extinction events (indicated with arrows) but generally indicates a positive and significant association between geographic range and survivorship. (A) Selectivity estimated from a single logistic regression of geographic range versus survivorship. (B) Geographic range selectivity from multiple logistic regression of geographic range, species richness, and occurrence frequency versus survivorship. Gray lines are 95% confidence intervals on estimated odds ratios. Logarithmic vertical axes are used to preserve symmetry. Pz, Paleozoic; Mz, Mesozoic; Cz, Cenozoic; Cam., Cambrian; Ord., Ordovician; Sil., Silurian; Dev., Devonian; Carb., Carboniferous; Perm., Permian; Trias., Triassic; Jur., Jurassic; Cret., Cretaceous; Pg., Paleogene; N., Neogene. Major extinction events are indicated by arrows: LOr, Late Ordovician; Fra, Frasnian; Fam, Fammenian; PT, P–T; TJ, T–J; KT, K–T. Estimates are less stable in the multiple regression (i.e., 95% confidence intervals are broader) because the three examined variables are collinear.

Fig. 2.

Fig. 2.

Geographic range selectivity versus extinction intensity. Note that extinction intensity is generally high in the Cambrian–Ordovician and low in the Mesozoic and Cenozoic. Selectivity exhibits a weak inverse association with extinction intensity, which is discussed in the text. Log-odds are from the single regression of geographic range. Abbreviations are as in Fig. 1.

Fig. 3.

Fig. 3.

Observed geographic range selectivity versus expected selectivity measured as log-odds if extinctions were entirely independent across plates. Intervals with less-than-expected geographic range selectivity are disproportionately intervals associated with geological evidence for widespread environmental disturbance. Geographic range selectivity values are from the univariate analysis. Abbreviations and symbols are as in Fig. 2. Cen, Cenomanian; Giv, Givetian; Guad, Guadalupian; Pli, Pliensbachian–Toarcian; Tur, Turonian–Santonian; ETr, Early Triassic.

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