Overconfidence as a cause of diagnostic error in medicine - PubMed (original) (raw)
Review
Overconfidence as a cause of diagnostic error in medicine
Eta S Berner et al. Am J Med. 2008 May.
Abstract
The great majority of medical diagnoses are made using automatic, efficient cognitive processes, and these diagnoses are correct most of the time. This analytic review concerns the exceptions: the times when these cognitive processes fail and the final diagnosis is missed or wrong. We argue that physicians in general underappreciate the likelihood that their diagnoses are wrong and that this tendency to overconfidence is related to both intrinsic and systemically reinforced factors. We present a comprehensive review of the available literature and current thinking related to these issues. The review covers the incidence and impact of diagnostic error, data on physician overconfidence as a contributing cause of errors, strategies to improve the accuracy of diagnostic decision making, and recommendations for future research.
Comment in
- Overconfidence in clinical decision making.
Croskerry P, Norman G. Croskerry P, et al. Am J Med. 2008 May;121(5 Suppl):S24-9. doi: 10.1016/j.amjmed.2008.02.001. Am J Med. 2008. PMID: 18440351 No abstract available. - Expanding perspectives on misdiagnosis.
Crandall B, Wears RL. Crandall B, et al. Am J Med. 2008 May;121(5 Suppl):S30-3. doi: 10.1016/j.amjmed.2008.02.002. Am J Med. 2008. PMID: 18440352 No abstract available. - Sidestepping superstitious learning, ambiguity, and other roadblocks: a feedback model of diagnostic problem solving.
Rudolph JW, Morrison JB. Rudolph JW, et al. Am J Med. 2008 May;121(5 Suppl):S34-7. doi: 10.1016/j.amjmed.2008.02.003. Am J Med. 2008. PMID: 18440353 No abstract available. - Minimizing diagnostic error: the importance of follow-up and feedback.
Schiff GD. Schiff GD. Am J Med. 2008 May;121(5 Suppl):S38-42. doi: 10.1016/j.amjmed.2008.02.004. Am J Med. 2008. PMID: 18440354 No abstract available. - On overconfidence and diagnostic error.
Mayer D. Mayer D. Am J Med. 2008 Nov;121(11):e17; author reply e19. doi: 10.1016/j.amjmed.2008.06.029. Am J Med. 2008. PMID: 18954826 No abstract available.
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