Forecasting the economic value of an Enterovirus 71 (EV71) vaccine - PubMed (original) (raw)

Forecasting the economic value of an Enterovirus 71 (EV71) vaccine

Bruce Y Lee et al. Vaccine. 2010.

Abstract

Enterovirus 71 (EV71) is a growing public health concern, especially in Asia. A surge of EV71 cases in 2008 prompted authorities in China to go on national alert. While there is currently no treatment for EV71 infections, vaccines are under development. We developed a computer simulation model to determine the potential economic value of an EV71 vaccine for children (<5 years old) in China. Our results suggest that routine vaccination in China (EV71 infection incidence ≈0.04%) may be cost-effective when vaccine cost is 25andefficacy≥7025 and efficacy ≥70% or cost is 25andefficacy≥7010 and efficacy ≥50%. For populations with higher infection risk (≥0.4%), a 50or50 or 50or75 vaccine would be highly cost-effective even when vaccine efficacy is as low as 50%.

Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Figures

Figure 1

Figure 1

Structure of Enterovirus 71 Model

Figure 2

Figure 2

Enterovirus 71 Infection Outcomes Subtree

Figure 3

Figure 3

Change in incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) by vaccine cost at 0.04% risk and 70% vaccine efficacy

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