Cognitive determinants of affective forecasting errors - PubMed (original) (raw)
Cognitive determinants of affective forecasting errors
Michael Hoerger et al. Judgm Decis Mak. 2010 Aug.
Abstract
Often to the detriment of human decision making, people are prone to an impact bias when making affective forecasts, overestimating the emotional consequences of future events. The cognitive processes underlying the impact bias, and methods for correcting it, have been debated and warrant further exploration. In the present investigation, we examined both individual differences and contextual variables associated with cognitive processing in affective forecasting for an election. Results showed that the perceived importance of the event and working memory capacity were both associated with an increased impact bias for some participants, whereas retrieval interference had no relationship with bias. Additionally, an experimental manipulation effectively reduced biased forecasts, particularly among participants who were most distracted thinking about peripheral life events. These findings have direct theoretical implications for understanding the impact bias, highlight the importance of individual differences in affective forecasting, and have ramifications for future decision making research. The possible functional role of the impact bias is discussed within the context of evolutionary psychology.
Similar articles
- When and why people misestimate future feelings: Identifying strengths and weaknesses in affective forecasting.
Lench HC, Levine LJ, Perez K, Carpenter ZK, Carlson SJ, Bench SW, Wan Y. Lench HC, et al. J Pers Soc Psychol. 2019 May;116(5):724-742. doi: 10.1037/pspa0000143. Epub 2019 Jan 3. J Pers Soc Psychol. 2019. PMID: 30604985 - Biden or Trump? Working memory for emotion predicts the ability to forecast future feelings.
Frank CC, Iordan AD, Reuter-Lorenz PA. Frank CC, et al. Emotion. 2024 Feb;24(1):139-149. doi: 10.1037/emo0001258. Epub 2023 Jun 8. Emotion. 2024. PMID: 37289509 - Motivated underpinnings of the impact bias in affective forecasts.
Morewedge CK, Buechel EC. Morewedge CK, et al. Emotion. 2013 Dec;13(6):1023-9. doi: 10.1037/a0033797. Epub 2013 Aug 5. Emotion. 2013. PMID: 23914762 - The future in clinical genetics: affective forecasting biases in patient and clinician decision making.
Peters SA, Laham SM, Pachter N, Winship IM. Peters SA, et al. Clin Genet. 2014 Apr;85(4):312-7. doi: 10.1111/cge.12255. Epub 2013 Sep 11. Clin Genet. 2014. PMID: 23952534 Review. - Affective forecasting and psychopathology: A scoping review.
Rizeq J. Rizeq J. Clin Psychol Rev. 2024 Mar;108:102392. doi: 10.1016/j.cpr.2024.102392. Epub 2024 Jan 14. Clin Psychol Rev. 2024. PMID: 38244480 Review.
Cited by
- Discrete and dimensional approaches to affective forecasting errors.
Patel P, Urry HL. Patel P, et al. Front Psychol. 2024 Jul 23;15:1412398. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2024.1412398. eCollection 2024. Front Psychol. 2024. PMID: 39118844 Free PMC article. Review. - "Peace of Mind" After Mastectomy: A Scoping Review.
Hamid SA, Bakkila B, Schultz KS, Grimshaw AA, Gunderson CG, Godfrey EL, Lee C, Berger E, Rosenberg S, Greenup RA. Hamid SA, et al. Ann Surg Oncol. 2024 Aug;31(8):5168-5179. doi: 10.1245/s10434-024-15360-3. Epub 2024 May 8. Ann Surg Oncol. 2024. PMID: 38717543 Review. - Transformative Experiences, Cognitive Modelling and Affective Forecasting.
Mathony M, Messerli M. Mathony M, et al. Erkenntnis. 2024;89(1):65-87. doi: 10.1007/s10670-022-00523-z. Epub 2022 Mar 2. Erkenntnis. 2024. PMID: 38303983 Free PMC article. - Negative Valence Effect in Affective Forecasting: The Unique Impact of the Valence Among Dispositional and Contextual Factors for Certain Life Events.
Christophe V, Hansenne M. Christophe V, et al. Eur J Psychol. 2021 May 31;17(2):117-130. doi: 10.5964/ejop.1945. eCollection 2021 May. Eur J Psychol. 2021. PMID: 35136433 Free PMC article. - Perceived importance of affective forecasting in cancer treatment decision making.
Perry LM, Hoerger M, Korotkin BD, Duberstein PR. Perry LM, et al. J Psychosoc Oncol. 2020 Nov-Dec;38(6):687-701. doi: 10.1080/07347332.2020.1768198. Epub 2020 Jun 26. J Psychosoc Oncol. 2020. PMID: 32586210 Free PMC article.
References
- Ayton P, Pott A, Elwakili N. Affective forecasting: Why can’t people predict their emotions? Thinking & Reasoning. 2007;13:62–80.
- Barnes JM, Underwood BM. “Fate” of first-list associations in transfer theory. Journal of Experimental Psychology. 1959;58:97–105. - PubMed
- Brumback CR, Low K, Gratton G, Fabiani M. Putting things into perspective: Differences in working memory span and the integration of information. Experimental Psychology. 2005;52:21–30. - PubMed
- Buehler R, McFarland C, Spyropoulos V, Lam KCH. Motivated prediction of future feelings: Effects of negative mood and mood orientation on affective forecasts. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin. 2007;33:1265–1278. - PubMed
- Catania AC. Learning. Interim [4th] ed. Cornwall-on-Hudson, NY: Sloan; 2006.
LinkOut - more resources
Full Text Sources