Goldilocks Meets Santa Rosalia: An Ephemeral Speciation Model Explains Patterns of Diversification Across Time Scales - PubMed (original) (raw)
Goldilocks Meets Santa Rosalia: An Ephemeral Speciation Model Explains Patterns of Diversification Across Time Scales
Erica Bree Rosenblum et al. Evol Biol. 2012 Jun.
Abstract
Understanding the rate at which new species form is a key question in studying the evolution of life on earth. Here we review our current understanding of speciation rates, focusing on studies based on the fossil record, phylogenies, and mathematical models. We find that speciation rates estimated from these different studies can be dramatically different: some studies find that new species form quickly and often, while others find that new species form much less frequently. We suggest that instead of being contradictory, differences in speciation rates across different scales can be reconciled by a common model. Under the "ephemeral speciation model", speciation is very common and very rapid but the new species produced almost never persist. Evolutionary studies should therefore focus on not only the formation but also the persistence of new species.
Figures
Fig. 1
Simulation of a hierarchical model of ephemeral speciation. The model has three parameters: the incipient speciation rate, the incipient extinction rate, and the rate of formation of “full species”. Simulation results are consistent with the core qualitative predictions presented in the text. (a) A phylogenetic tree showing that species are composed of many incipient forms, most of which go extinct or are reabsorbed via hybridization (inset). (b) A frequency distribution showing the uneven distribution of incipient forms within species. The x-axis shows the number of incipient species contained in each “full species”. (c) A lineage through time plot showing an “early burst” of speciation due to the preferential survival of clades that form many new species by chance early in their history
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