The case of Moulay Ismael--fact or fancy? - PubMed (original) (raw)

The case of Moulay Ismael--fact or fancy?

Elisabeth Oberzaucher et al. PLoS One. 2014.

Abstract

Textbooks on evolutionary psychology and biology cite the case of the Sharifian Emperor of Morocco, Moulay Ismael the Bloodthirsty (1672-1727) who was supposed to have sired 888 children. This example for male reproduction has been challenged and led to a still unresolved discussion. The scientific debate is shaped by assumptions about reproductive constraints which cannot be tested directly-and the figures used are sometimes arbitrary. Therefore we developed a computer simulation which tests how many copulations per day were necessary to reach the reported reproductive outcome. We based our calculations on a report dating 1704, thus computing whether it was possible to have 600 sons in a reproductive timespan of 32 years. The algorithm is based on three different models of conception and different social and biological constraints. In the first model we used a random mating pool with unrestricted access to females. In the second model we used a restricted harem pool. The results indicate that Moulay Ismael could have achieved this high reproductive success. A comparison of the three conception models highlights the necessity to consider female sexual habits when assessing fertility across the cycle. We also show that the harem size needed is far smaller than the reported numbers.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Figure 1

Figure 1. This figure illustrates the setup of the simulation—circles indicate factors negatively affecting reproductive success, rectangles indicate factors increasing reproductive success.

Figure 2

Figure 2. The potential reproductive outcome is related to the harem size.

Saturation is reached at smaller harem sizes for the Wilcox-Weinberg and Barrett-Marshall models than for the Jöchle model.

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