External validation of the risk assessment model of the International Medical Prevention Registry on Venous Thromboembolism (IMPROVE) for medical patients in a tertiary health system - PubMed (original) (raw)

Multicenter Study

External validation of the risk assessment model of the International Medical Prevention Registry on Venous Thromboembolism (IMPROVE) for medical patients in a tertiary health system

David Rosenberg et al. J Am Heart Assoc. 2014.

Abstract

Background: Hospitalized medical patients are at risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE). Universal application of pharmacological thromboprophylaxis has the potential to place a large number of patients at increased bleeding risk. In this study, we aimed to externally validate the International Medical Prevention Registry on Venous Thromboembolism (IMPROVE) VTE risk assessment model in a hospitalized general medical population.

Methods and results: We identified medical discharges that met the IMPROVE protocol. Cases were defined as hospital-acquired VTE and confirmed by diagnostic study within 90 days of index hospitalization; matched controls were also identified. Risk factors for VTE were based on the IMPROVE risk assessment model (aged >60 years, prior VTE, intensive care unit or coronary care unit stay, lower limb paralysis, immobility, known thrombophilia, and cancer) and were measured and assessed. A total of 19 217 patients met the inclusion criteria. The overall VTE event rate was 0.7%. The IMPROVE risk assessment model identified 2 groups of the cohort by VTE incidence rate: The low-risk group had a VTE event rate of 0.42 (95% CI 0.31 to 0.53), corresponding to a score of 0 to 2, and the at-risk group had a VTE event rate of 1.29 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.57), corresponding to a score of ≥3. Low-risk status for VTE encompassed 68% of the patient cohort. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.702, which was in line with the derivation cohort findings.

Conclusions: The IMPROVE VTE risk assessment model validation cohort revealed good discrimination and calibration for both the overall VTE risk model and the identification of low-risk and at-risk medical patient groups, using a risk score of ≥3. More than two thirds of the entire cohort had a score ≤2.

Keywords: clinical prediction rules; hospitalized medical patients; risk assessment models; thromboprophylaxis; venous thromboembolism.

© 2014 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

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Figures

Figure 1.

Figure 1.

Definition study population. DRG indicates diagnosis‐related group; ICD‐9, International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision; INR, international normalized ratio; LIJMC, Long Island Jewish Medical Center; LOS, length of stay; NSUH, North Shore University Hospital; VTE, venous thromboembolism.

Figure 2.

Figure 2.

Receiver operating characteristic curve for the validation cohort was 0.70.

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