Application of the analytic hierarchy approach to the risk assessment of Zika virus disease transmission in Guangdong Province, China - PubMed (original) (raw)

doi: 10.1186/s12879-016-2170-2.

Tao Liu 1, Lifeng Lin 2, Tie Song 2, Xiaolong Du 1, Hualiang Lin 1, Jianpeng Xiao 1, Jianfeng He 2, Liping Liu 2, Guanghu Zhu 1, Weilin Zeng 1, Lingchuan Guo 1, Zheng Cao 3, Wenjun Ma 4, Yonghui Zhang 5

Affiliations

Application of the analytic hierarchy approach to the risk assessment of Zika virus disease transmission in Guangdong Province, China

Xing Li et al. BMC Infect Dis. 2017.

Abstract

Background: An international spread of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection has attracted global attention in 2015. The infection also affected Guangdong province, which is located in southern China. Multiple factors, including frequent communication with South America and Southeast Asia, suitable climate (sub-tropical) for the habitat of Aedes species, may increase the risk of ZIKV disease transmission in this region.

Methods: An analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method was used to develop a semi-quantitative ZIKV risk assessment model. After selecting indicators, we invited experts in related professions to identify the index weight and based on that a hierarchical structure was generated. Then a series of pairwise comparisons were used to determine the relative importance of the criteria. Finally, the optimal model was established to estimate the spatial and seasonal transmission risk of ZIKV.

Results: A total of 15 factors that potentially influenced the risk of ZIKV transmission were identified. The factor that received the largest weight was epidemic of ZIKV in Guangdong province (combined weight [CW] =0.37), followed by the mosquito density (CW = 0.18) and the epidemic of DENV in Guangdong province (CW = 0.14). The distribution of 123 districts/counties' RIs of ZIKV in Guangdong through different seasons were presented, respectively.

Conclusions: Higher risk was observed within Pearl River Delta including Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Jiangmen, and the risk is greater in summer and autumn compared to spring and winter.

Keywords: China; Risk assessment; Transmission; Zika virus.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Fig. 1

Fig. 1

The distribution of risk to ZIKV transmission among 123 counties/districts in Guangdong Province (analytic hierarchy process method) in spring (March to May)

Fig. 2

Fig. 2

The distribution of risk to ZIKV transmission among 123 counties/districts in Guangdong Province (analytic hierarchy process method) in summer (June to August)

Fig. 3

Fig. 3

The distribution of risk to ZIKV transmission among 123 counties/districts in Guangdong Province (analytic hierarchy process method) in autumn (September to November)

Fig. 4

Fig. 4

The distribution of risk to ZIKV transmission among 123 counties/districts in Guangdong Province (analytic hierarchy process method) in winter (December to February)

References

    1. Dick GW, Kitchen SF, Haddow AJ. Zika virus. I. Isolations and serological specificity. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 1952;46(5):509–20. doi: 10.1016/0035-9203(52)90042-4. -DOI -PubMed
    1. Barboza P, Tarantola A, Lassel L, Mollet T, Quatresous I, Paquet C. Viroses émergentes en Asie du Sud-Est et dans le Pacifique. Med Mal Infect. 2008;38(10):513–23. doi: 10.1016/j.medmal.2008.06.011. -DOI -PubMed
    1. Van-Mai CL, Didier M. Emerging arboviruses in the Pacific. Lancet. 2014;384(9954):1571–2. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61977-2. -DOI -PubMed
    1. Staples JE, Dziuban EJ, Fischer M, Cragan JD, Rasmussen SA, Cannon MJ, Frey MT, Renquist CM, Lanciotti RS, Muñoz JL. Interim guidelines for the evaluation and testing of infants with possible congenital Zika virus infection - United States, 2016. Mmwr Morbidity Mortality Weekly Report. 2016;65(3):1–5. doi: 10.15585/mmwr.mm6503e3er. -DOI -PubMed
    1. Schulerfaccini L. Possible association between zika virus infection and microcephaly — Brazil, 2015. Mmwr Morbidity Mortality Weekly Report. 2016;65(3):1–4. doi: 10.15585/mmwr.mm6503e2er. -DOI -PubMed

MeSH terms

LinkOut - more resources