Modeling NAFLD disease burden in China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, United Kingdom, and United States for the period 2016-2030 - PubMed (original) (raw)
. 2018 Oct;69(4):896-904.
doi: 10.1016/j.jhep.2018.05.036. Epub 2018 Jun 8.
Quentin M Anstee 2, Maria Teresa Arias-Loste 3, Heike Bantel 4, Stefano Bellentani 5, Joan Caballeria 6, Massimo Colombo 7, Antonio Craxi 8, Javier Crespo 9, Christopher P Day 2, Yuichiro Eguchi 10, Andreas Geier 11, Loreta A Kondili 12, Daniela C Kroy 13, Jeffrey V Lazarus 14, Rohit Loomba 15, Michael P Manns 4, Giulio Marchesini [ 16](#full-view-affiliation-16 "Unit of Metabolic Diseases and Clinical Dietetics, DIMEC, "Alma Mater" University, Bologna, Italy."), Atsushi Nakajima 17, Francesco Negro 18, Salvatore Petta 19, Vlad Ratziu 20, Manuel Romero-Gomez 21, Arun Sanyal 22, Jörn M Schattenberg 23, Frank Tacke 13, Junko Tanaka 24, Christian Trautwein 13, Lai Wei 25, Stefan Zeuzem 26, Homie Razavi 27
Affiliations
- PMID: 29886156
- DOI: 10.1016/j.jhep.2018.05.036
Free article
Modeling NAFLD disease burden in China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, United Kingdom, and United States for the period 2016-2030
Chris Estes et al. J Hepatol. 2018 Oct.
Free article
Abstract
Background & aims: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are increasingly a cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma globally. This burden is expected to increase as epidemics of obesity, diabetes and metabolic syndrome continue to grow. The goal of this analysis was to use a Markov model to forecast NAFLD disease burden using currently available data.
Methods: A model was used to estimate NAFLD and NASH disease progression in eight countries based on data for adult prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Published estimates and expert consensus were used to build and validate the model projections.
Results: If obesity and DM level off in the future, we project a modest growth in total NAFLD cases (0-30%), between 2016-2030, with the highest growth in China as a result of urbanization and the lowest growth in Japan as a result of a shrinking population. However, at the same time, NASH prevalence will increase 15-56%, while liver mortality and advanced liver disease will more than double as a result of an aging/increasing population.
Conclusions: NAFLD and NASH represent a large and growing public health problem and efforts to understand this epidemic and to mitigate the disease burden are needed. If obesity and DM continue to increase at current and historical rates, both NAFLD and NASH prevalence are expected to increase. Since both are reversible, public health campaigns to increase awareness and diagnosis, and to promote diet and exercise can help manage the growth in future disease burden.
Lay summary: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis can lead to advanced liver disease. Both conditions are becoming increasingly prevalent as the epidemics of obesity and diabetes continue to increase. A mathematical model was built to understand how the disease burden associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis will change over time. Results suggest increasing cases of advanced liver disease and liver-related mortality in the coming years.
Keywords: Burden of disease; Cardiovascular disease; Cirrhosis; Diabetes mellitus; HCC; Health care resource utilization; Metabolic syndrome; NAFLD; NASH; Obesity.
Copyright © 2018 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Comment in
- Predicting the future burden of NAFLD and NASH.
Mahady SE, George J. Mahady SE, et al. J Hepatol. 2018 Oct;69(4):774-775. doi: 10.1016/j.jhep.2018.06.025. Epub 2018 Jul 17. J Hepatol. 2018. PMID: 30025620 No abstract available.
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