Water scarcity assessments in the past, present and future - PubMed (original) (raw)

doi: 10.1002/2016EF000518. Epub 2017 Mar 21.

Hong Yang 2 3, Simon N Gosling 4, Matti Kummu 5, Martina Flörke 6, Stephan Pfister 7, Naota Hanasaki 8, Yoshihide Wada 9 10 11, Xinxin Zhang 12, Chunmiao Zheng 1, Joseph Alcamo 6, Taikan Oki 13

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Water scarcity assessments in the past, present and future

Junguo Liu et al. Earths Future. 2017 Jun.

Abstract

Water scarcity has become a major constraint to socio-economic development and a threat to livelihood in increasing parts of the world. Since the late 1980s, water scarcity research has attracted much political and public attention. We here review a variety of indicators that have been developed to capture different characteristics of water scarcity. Population, water availability and water use are the key elements of these indicators. Most of the progress made in the last few decades has been on the quantification of water availability and use by applying spatially explicit models. However, challenges remain on appropriate incorporation of green water (soil moisture), water quality, environmental flow requirements, globalization and virtual water trade in water scarcity assessment. Meanwhile, inter- and intra- annual variability of water availability and use also calls for assessing the temporal dimension of water scarcity. It requires concerted efforts of hydrologists, economists, social scientists, and environmental scientists to develop integrated approaches to capture the multi-faceted nature of water scarcity.

Keywords: Freshwater resources; environmental flow requirements; green water; virtual water; water footprint; water quality.

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Figures

Figure 1

Figure 1

The number of publications based on the keyword “water scarcity” from Scopus as of 17 January 2016. The years of publication of specific water scarcity indicators are marked.

Figure 2

Figure 2

Water scarcity assessment for different provinces with the quantity-quality indicator approach. This map was generated by J Liu based on the approach of Zeng et al. [2013].

Figure 3

Figure 3

Spatial distribution of water scarcity from different assessments. Below is a list of references for Fig. 3 A–H and the indicator used in relation to Table 1. A: Water shortage (modified from Kummu et al., [2010]); B: Water stress (modified from Wada et al., [2011]); C: Physical and economic water scarcity (modified from Seckler et al., [1998]); D: Water poverty index (modified from World Resources Institute [2006]; Sullivan et al., [2002]); E: Green-blue water scarcity (modified from Kummu et al., [2014]); F: Monthly blue water stress (modified from Mekonnen and Hoekstra, [2016]); G: Cumulative abstraction to demand ratio (modified from Hanasaki et al., [2013]); H: LCA-based water stress indicator (modified from Pfister et al. [2009]). Note: all maps were redrawn by authors based on original data from the sources given above, except water poverty index, which was modified from a softcopy map. Further, legend colors in some maps are modified for consistency.

Figure 4

Figure 4

Number of people suffering from water scarcity assessed with the average annual water availability per capita (1000m3/capita/year) and water use to availability ratio (40%). The marks show the estimates from different studies. Specific estimates include: 1.2 billion [Hayashi et al., 2010], 1.4 billion [Arnell, 2004], 1.6 billion [Alcamo et al., 2007; Arnell et al., 2011; Gosling and Arnell, 2016], 1.7 billion [Revenga et al., 2000], and 2.3 billion [Kummu et al., 2010]. But the number may be quite different when other indicators are used, e.g. Mekonnen and Hoekstra [2016] estimated that 4 billion people live under conditions of severe water scarcity at least 1 month of the year between 1996 and 2005.

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