Decline in climate resilience of European wheat - PubMed (original) (raw)
. 2019 Jan 2;116(1):123-128.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.1804387115. Epub 2018 Dec 24.
Janne Kaseva 2, Jan Balek 3 4, Jørgen E Olesen 5, Margarita Ruiz-Ramos 6, Anne Gobin 7, Kurt Christian Kersebaum 8, Jozef Takáč 9, Francoise Ruget 10, Roberto Ferrise 11, Pavol Bezak 9, Gemma Capellades 12, Camilla Dibari 11, Hanna Mäkinen 13, Claas Nendel 8, Domenico Ventrella 14, Alfredo Rodríguez 6 15, Marco Bindi 11, Mirek Trnka 3 4
Affiliations
- PMID: 30584094
- PMCID: PMC6320549
- DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1804387115
Decline in climate resilience of European wheat
Helena Kahiluoto et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2019.
Abstract
Food security relies on the resilience of staple food crops to climatic variability and extremes, but the climate resilience of European wheat is unknown. A diversity of responses to disturbance is considered a key determinant of resilience. The capacity of a sole crop genotype to perform well under climatic variability is limited; therefore, a set of cultivars with diverse responses to weather conditions critical to crop yield is required. Here, we show a decline in the response diversity of wheat in farmers' fields in most European countries after 2002-2009 based on 101,000 cultivar yield observations. Similar responses to weather were identified in cultivar trials among central European countries and southern European countries. A response diversity hotspot appeared in the trials in Slovakia, while response diversity "deserts" were identified in Czechia and Germany and for durum wheat in southern Europe. Positive responses to abundant precipitation were lacking. This assessment suggests that current breeding programs and cultivar selection practices do not sufficiently prepare for climatic uncertainty and variability. Consequently, the demand for climate resilience of staple food crops such as wheat must be better articulated. Assessments and communication of response diversity enable collective learning across supply chains. Increased awareness could foster governance of resilience through research and breeding programs, incentives, and regulation.
Keywords: Europe; climate resilience; cultivar; response diversity; wheat.
Copyright © 2019 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.
Conflict of interest statement
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Figures
Fig. 1.
Decline in climate resilience of wheat on farmers’ fields after 2002–2009 in most European countries. The long-term trends of the diversity of the responses to critical weather patterns (response diversity), illustrating the climate resilience and the diversity of cultivars (type diversity). True diversities are shown representing the exponential of the Shannon index [exp(H)] (36, 37). All of the cultivar yield data were utilized (n = 100,985).
Fig. 2.
Increase in the climate resilience of European wheat with increasing response diversity. The main figure shows the decrease in the variation in the percentage yield response to the weather patterns (agroclimatic PCs) critical to yield due to the increase in the number of weather response clusters considered. All of the cultivar yield data were utilized (n = 100,985). The box shows how combining cultivars from different clusters increases the yield stability under weather variability. The three exemplary cultivars (dark, yellow and green heads) represent clusters 1, 3 and 5, respectively, from Caslav, Czechia and were selected based on the largest number of observations and similar average yields (n = 78). If the cultivation area was evenly divided among the three cultivars from 2001 to 2007 in comparison with the cultivation of only the cultivar with the highest total yield (Apache), a 2% loss in total yield appeared, but the SD among the years declined by 16–32%. The relative size of the heads refers to the relative annual yields of the three cultivars.
Fig. 3.
Climate resilience hotspots and deserts of European wheat. The country charts show the percentages of cultivars in each weather response cluster with different responses to weather patterns (agroclimatic PCs) critical to yield in cultivar trials. The colored (green to orange) areas on the map illustrate the response diversity classes based on the proportion of the dominant cluster (>90 to <50%), the number of other simultaneously important clusters (0–4), and the trends. All of the cultivar yield data were utilized (n = 100,985).
Comment in
- Reduced response diversity does not negatively impact wheat climate resilience.
Snowdon RJ, Stahl A, Wittkop B, Friedt W, Voss-Fels K, Ordon F, Frisch M, Dreisigacker S, Hearne SJ, Bett KE, Cuthbert RD, Bentley AR, Melchinger AE, Tuberosa R, Langridge P, Uauy C, Sorrells ME, Poland J, Pozniak CJ. Snowdon RJ, et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2019 May 28;116(22):10623-10624. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1901882116. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2019. PMID: 31138710 Free PMC article. No abstract available. - Recent claim of declining climate resilience in European wheat is not supported by the statistics used.
Piepho HP. Piepho HP. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2019 May 28;116(22):10625-10626. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1901946116. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2019. PMID: 31138711 Free PMC article. No abstract available. - Reply to Snowdon et al. and Piepho: Genetic response diversity to provide yield stability of cultivar groups deserves attention.
Kahiluoto H, Kaseva J, Olesen JE, Kersebaum KC, Ruiz-Ramos M, Gobin A, Takáč J, Ruget F, Ferrise R, Balek J, Bezak P, Capellades G, Dibari C, Mäkinen H, Nendel C, Ventrella D, Rodríguez A, Bindi M, Trnka M. Kahiluoto H, et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2019 May 28;116(22):10627-10629. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1903594116. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2019. PMID: 31138712 Free PMC article. No abstract available.
Similar articles
- Crop responses to climatic variation.
Porter JR, Semenov MA. Porter JR, et al. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2005 Nov 29;360(1463):2021-35. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2005.1752. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2005. PMID: 16433091 Free PMC article. Review. - Heat tolerance around flowering in wheat identified as a key trait for increased yield potential in Europe under climate change.
Stratonovitch P, Semenov MA. Stratonovitch P, et al. J Exp Bot. 2015 Jun;66(12):3599-609. doi: 10.1093/jxb/erv070. Epub 2015 Mar 7. J Exp Bot. 2015. PMID: 25750425 Free PMC article. - Impacts of climate change and inter-annual variability on cereal crops in China from 1980 to 2008.
Zhang T, Huang Y. Zhang T, et al. J Sci Food Agric. 2012 Jun;92(8):1643-52. doi: 10.1002/jsfa.5523. Epub 2011 Dec 20. J Sci Food Agric. 2012. PMID: 22190019 - Impact of extreme weather conditions on European crop production in 2018.
Beillouin D, Schauberger B, Bastos A, Ciais P, Makowski D. Beillouin D, et al. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2020 Oct 26;375(1810):20190510. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2019.0510. Epub 2020 Sep 7. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2020. PMID: 32892735 Free PMC article. - QTLian breeding for climate resilience in cereals: progress and prospects.
Choudhary M, Wani SH, Kumar P, Bagaria PK, Rakshit S, Roorkiwal M, Varshney RK. Choudhary M, et al. Funct Integr Genomics. 2019 Sep;19(5):685-701. doi: 10.1007/s10142-019-00684-1. Epub 2019 May 16. Funct Integr Genomics. 2019. PMID: 31093800 Review.
Cited by
- Clear effects on root system architecture of winter wheat cultivars (Triticum aestivum L.) from cultivation environment and practices.
Cope JE, Berckx F, Lundmark J, Henriksson T, Karlsson I, Weih M. Cope JE, et al. Sci Rep. 2024 May 15;14(1):11099. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-61765-1. Sci Rep. 2024. PMID: 38750060 Free PMC article. - The E3 ligase TaGW2 mediates transcription factor TaARR12 degradation to promote drought resistance in wheat.
Li S, Zhang Y, Liu Y, Zhang P, Wang X, Chen B, Ding L, Nie Y, Li F, Ma Z, Kang Z, Mao H. Li S, et al. Plant Cell. 2024 Feb 26;36(3):605-625. doi: 10.1093/plcell/koad307. Plant Cell. 2024. PMID: 38079275 - Defining durum wheat ideotypes adapted to Mediterranean environments through remote sensing traits.
Gracia-Romero A, Vatter T, Kefauver SC, Rezzouk FZ, Segarra J, Nieto-Taladriz MT, Aparicio N, Araus JL. Gracia-Romero A, et al. Front Plant Sci. 2023 Sep 5;14:1254301. doi: 10.3389/fpls.2023.1254301. eCollection 2023. Front Plant Sci. 2023. PMID: 37731983 Free PMC article. - Modeling of the Spatial Distribution of Forest Carbon Storage in a Tropical/Subtropical Island with Multiple Ecozones.
Chang TW, Chen GF, Chang KH. Chang TW, et al. Plants (Basel). 2023 Jul 26;12(15):2777. doi: 10.3390/plants12152777. Plants (Basel). 2023. PMID: 37570931 Free PMC article. - Breeding Bread-Making Wheat Varieties for Organic Farming Systems: The Need to Target Productivity, Robustness, Resource Use Efficiency and Grain Quality Traits.
Rempelos L, Wang J, Sufar EK, Almuayrifi MSB, Knutt D, Leifert H, Leifert A, Wilkinson A, Shotton P, Hasanaliyeva G, Bilsborrow P, Wilcockson S, Volakakis N, Markellou E, Zhao B, Jones S, Iversen PO, Leifert C. Rempelos L, et al. Foods. 2023 Mar 13;12(6):1209. doi: 10.3390/foods12061209. Foods. 2023. PMID: 36981136 Free PMC article. Review.
References
- Coumou D, Rahmstorf S. A decade of weather extremes. Nat Clim Chang. 2012;2:491–496.
- Trnka M, et al. Adverse weather conditions for European wheat production will become more frequent with climate change. Nat Clim Chang. 2014;4:637–643.
- Challinor AJ, et al. A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation. Nat Clim Chang. 2014;4:287–291.
- Asseng F, et al. Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. Nat Clim Chang. 2015;5:143–147.
Publication types
MeSH terms
LinkOut - more resources
Full Text Sources