A newly noninvasive model for prediction of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: utility of serum prolactin levels - PubMed (original) (raw)

Observational Study

A newly noninvasive model for prediction of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: utility of serum prolactin levels

Pengzi Zhang et al. BMC Gastroenterol. 2019.

Erratum in

Abstract

Backgrounds: To investigate the value of prolactin (PRL) in diagnosing non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

Methods: Metabolic parameters and serum PRL levels were measured in 452 males and 421 females, who were randomized to the estimation or the validation group as a 1:1 ratio. Hepatic steatosis was diagnosed via abdominal ultrasound. Variables that significantly associated with NAFLD in univariate analysis were included in multiple logistic regression. We used the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves to test the model performance. Besides, 147 patients underwent metabolic and liver biopsy were analyzed to validate the diagnostic value of this model.

Results: Body mass index, alanine aminotransferase, prolactin, high density lipoprotein cholesterol and HbA1c were included into models. In males, the area under ROC curve (AUC) was 0.86 (95%CI: 0.82-0.91) for the validation group. With two cut-off points (- 0.79 and 1.71), the sensitivity and specificity for predicting NALFD was 95.2 and 91.1% in the validation group, respectively. In females, the AUC was 0.82 (95%CI: 0.76-0.88) for the validation group. With two cut-off points (- 0.68 and 2.16), the sensitivity and specificity for predicting NALFD was 97.1 and 91.4% in the validation group, respectively. In subjects with liver pathology, the AUC was higher than that of fatty liver index. A positive correlation between the scores of the model and the severities of NAFLD was observed. Importantly, we demonstrated a potential value of this model in predicting nonalcoholic steatohepatitis.

Conclusion: We established a mathematic model that can conveniently and effectively diagnose the existence and severities of NAFLD.

Keywords: Diagnostic model; Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease; Prolactin.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1

Fig. 1

ROC curves of NAFLD in different subgroups. a ROC curve in the estimation group of males, the AUC is 0.87 (95%CI: 0.83–0.92) (n = 226). b ROC curve in the estimation group of females, the AUC is 0.91 (95%CI: 0.87–0.96) (n = 210). c ROC curve in the validation group of males, the AUC is 0.86 (95%CI: 0.82–0.91) (n = 226). d ROC curve in the validation group of females, the AUC is 0.82 (95%CI: 0.76–0.88) (n = 211)

Fig. 2

Fig. 2

Performance of established models in subjects received liver biopsy. a and b Comparison of ROC curves between our model and fatty liver index in males and females, respectively. c and d The scores in male and females categorized into different severities of NAFLD, P values are based on Kruskal-Wallis test. e and f ROC curve of our model in identifying subjects with NASH in males and females, respectively

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