Trends in the Prevalence of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Its Future Predictions in Korean Men, 1998-2035 - PubMed (original) (raw)

Seo Young Kang et al. J Clin Med. 2020.

Abstract

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a serious health concern as it can progress to liver cirrhosis and hepatoma. We investigated past trends in the prevalence of NAFLD and related factors among Korean men and women from 1998 to 2017 and predicted their future prevalence among Korean men. We used data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey I-VII (KNHANES). NAFLD was defined as a hepatic steatosis index of >36. Subjects with viral hepatitis, liver cirrhosis, cancer, pregnancy, and a habit of drinking ≥30 g alcohol per occasion were excluded. We evaluated the prevalence trends of NAFLD, obesity, abdominal obesity, high fat intake, and low physical activity in each KNHANES wave. For future prevalence predictions, average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) were estimated from the joinpoint model. In men, NAFLD prevalence has increased by approximately 11 percentage points in the past 19 years, reaching 30.7% in wave VII. Prevalence of obesity, abdominal obesity, high fat intake, and low physical activity also increased. The AAPC of NAFLD prevalence was 2.3% per year, and the estimated NAFLD prevalence in 2030 and 2035 was 39.1% and 43.8%, respectively. The forecasted prevalence of obesity, abdominal obesity, and high fat intake among Korean men in 2035 was 65.0%, 52.2%, and 23.5%, respectively. The estimated future prevalence of NAFLD and related factors was considerably high in the younger age group (19-45 year). In women, NAFLD prevalence has increased by approximately three percentage points in the past 19 years; however, this increase was not significant in the multivariate analysis. Public strategies to manage obesity, abdominal obesity, and unhealthy lifestyles are needed to prevent NAFLD.

Keywords: abdominal obesity; non-alcoholic fatty liver disease; obesity; unhealthy lifestyles.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest. The funders had no role in the design of the study; in the collection, analyses, or interpretation of data; in the writing of the manuscript, or in the decision to publish the results.

Figures

Figure 1

Figure 1

Trends in the prevalence of NAFLD in Korean men and women, KNHANES waves I-VII. (A) Prevalence of NAFLD in Korean men; (B) prevalence of NAFLD in Korean women; (C) prevalence of NAFLD in Korean men according to age group; (D) prevalence of NALFD in Korean women according to age group. NAFLD, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease; KNHANES, Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

Figure 2

Figure 2

Future predictions using the joinpoint model for the prevalence of NAFLD and associated risk factors in the total participants and young Korean men. NAFLD, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease; AAPC, average annual percentage change.

Figure 2

Figure 2

Future predictions using the joinpoint model for the prevalence of NAFLD and associated risk factors in the total participants and young Korean men. NAFLD, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease; AAPC, average annual percentage change.

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