When are fossil fuels displaced? An exploratory inquiry into the role of nuclear electricity production in the displacement of fossil fuels - PubMed (original) (raw)

When are fossil fuels displaced? An exploratory inquiry into the role of nuclear electricity production in the displacement of fossil fuels

Patrick Trent Greiner et al. Heliyon. 2022.

Abstract

We explore how renewable electricity production influences nuclear energy and fossil fuel use in the electricity sector for 109 nations from 1960-2015 and how such patterns change over time. We find that although a one-unit increase in the number of kWh produced from renewable sources does not appear to displace an equivalent number of kWh from fossil fuels, such an increase is associated with an equivalent reduction in the number of kWh drawn from nuclear sources between 1960 and 2015. However, further analyses indicate that there has been a trend toward displacement of fossil fuel sources by renewables, as well as an attenuation of the displacement of nuclear sources by renewables, since the late 1990s in nations with the capacity for nuclear electricity production. These findings suggest that social, political, and economic processes may prevent renewables from being deployed such that they decarbonize the existing electricity grid, especially outside of the 31 nations capable of producing electricity from nuclear energy sources.

Keywords: Decarbonization; Displacement; Electricity production; Emissions; Nuclear; Renewables.

© 2022 The Author(s).

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1

Figure 1

Pearson's correlation matrix for all co-variates. All data for Figure 1 drawn from the World Bank World Development Indicators (2020) database. Figure 1 displays results of Pearson's correlation analysis for all variables included in analyses presented below and in the appendix.

Figure 2

Figure 2

Change in displacement coefficients for fossil fuel electricity sources from 1997 to 2015, for all nations. All data for Figure 2 drawn from the World Bank World Development Indicators (2020) database.

Figure 3

Figure 3

Change in displacement coefficients for fossil fuel and nuclear electricity sources from 1997 to 2015, constrained to nuclear capable nations. All data for Figure 3 drawn from the World Bank World Development Indicators (2020) database.

Figure 4

Figure 4

Distribution of GDP (2010 U.S. Dollars) for all nations and for nations that produce electricity from nuclear fuel sources. All data for Figure 4 drawn from the World Bank World Development Indicators (2020) database.

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