Prospect News: The Trade Winds Of Winter (original) (raw)

Once upon a time, my family would stay at the Trade Winds Motel in Valentine, Nebraska for a few days every summer. We’d fill the days by floating down the Niobrara river on inner tubes, drinking during the stretches where such was legal, then doing the same on the sands of the Merritt Reservoir.

Been thinking about the Trade Winds a bit this winter, missing the biscuits and gravy that used to be made by the proprietor’s wife but have since been replaced by pre-packaged continental garbage rolls and breads.

Feels like a lot of the league is pumping the brakes on free agency as they seek to first exhaust the trade market for their roster upgrades. For example, Josh Naylor is perhaps responsible for the crickets chirping around the first-base market, and Nolan Arenado probably has something to do with the Alex Bregman situation.

(Update: Christian Walker woke up the first-base market after I’d finished the initial draft of this article).

(More updates while I was traveling, Paul Goldschmidt signed with the Yankees for $12.5 million and the Guardians traded Josh Naylor for what appears to be *checks notes* just north of nothing to the naked eye. The first base market is on fire.)

A portion of the pitching market is waiting to see where Roki Sasaki goes, but that didn’t stop Washington from taking a flier on Mike Soroka, who salvaged his 2024 season by becoming a dominant reliever. You might’ve seen the stats already, but his full-season strikeout rate of 24.8 percent and WHIP of 1.38 doesn’t tell the tale of his final few months, during which he recorded a 43.3 percent strikeout rate and 0.90 WHIP over 23.1 innings. Baseball folks have long suspected that Soroka’s command could lead to an increased strikeout rate across time; just didn’t expect the leap to happen all at once out of the bullpen. That’s life though. Development is not linear, and it’s no real surprise that Soroka’s evolution happened after the career near-death experience of failing out of the White Sox starting rotation. He’s an excellent sleeper candidate for 2025 even as his price will no doubt rise while the dreamers gather around the glow of Soroka’s small-sample peripherals.

The biggest winner of the winter so far might be Cubs 3B Matt Shaw, who goes from bouncing all around in a back-up/utility role to zeroing in on the hot corner. Manager Craig Counsell said he wasn’t going to gift Shaw the gig over zoom, but it’s okay of us to acknowledge reality in this space. I hate the concept that it would be “gifted” to him, for what it’s worth. He was a first-round draft pick who has mashed throughout the minors. It’s okay to clear a space for him and anoint him as the front-runner. Anything else sounds like bullshit to anyone listening with a brain attached to their ears. Okay, sure, old school baseball stuff, or work-group management stuff or whatever. Kid’s gotta earn it. But we can’t wait around for that in our game. Shaw is perhaps baseball’s best rookie for redraft leagues given the relative weakness of third base.

Trouble is he’ll have to aim for the same left-field fence that exposed Isaac Paredes. Anyone who’s seen a game in Wrigley could guess how that was going to turn out. Well, anyone but the Cubs’ front office, but major credit to them for flipping a busted asset to the Astros, where Paredes should be able to resume his modus operandi for pulling about 30 home runs down the left-field line. Tucker is so good it’s easy to hand-wave for the more difficult ballpark. Pittsburgh, Milwaukee and Cincinnati are good parks for lefties, too, so maybe that will come out in the wash.

New Astros 3B Cam Smith gets a pretty big arrow up here as well. He’s “blocked” by Paredes, but he already was, and Smith is a good athlete who could move to the outfield, which is wide open in Houston. We might even see him in 2025 now: an outcome that was pretty close to unthinkable in Chicago.

Astros RHP Hayden Wesneski is a little interesting, too. He had a couple good starts early in the season and posted a 1.14 WHIP across 67.2 total innings. He’s working toward a three-fastball approach alongside the sweeper, but it hasn’t come together yet. If he figures that out, he could still be a twice-through starter type, something Houston has often maximized.

The Tucker fallout made Cody Bellinger available to New York for a song by the name of Cody Poteet, who’s typically been effective despite an underwhelming profile. The Yankees also added ace close Devin Williams at the cost of Nestor Cortes and Itch-fave Caleb Durbin. I was initially a little disappointed because I thought Durbin had a real chance to play a lot for New York, but after some time passed, I realized that was only ever a poisonous dream, and Durbin is better off with Pat Murphy in Milwaukee because that guy plays everyone on the roster, and I think once Durbin gets on the field, he’ll be difficult to dislodge.

Williams is a good example of why the trade market is warmer than free agency. If you can acquire a top three closer for a middling starting pitcher and a pop-up minor leaguer you’re not that crazy about, why wouldn’t you do that? If you can get Cody Bellinger for Cody Poteet, you kind of have to try. Teams are moving money around in their year-end accounting, so all you have to do is listen closely and raise your hand when the time is right. Unless you’re trading for Nolan Arenado, who put the kibosh on a trade that would’ve sent him to Houston. But hey, that’s why veterans have these clauses in their contracts. Moving sucks. You wanna start that process a week before Christmas? I sure wouldn’t.

But that’s what Christian Walker and family are doing, planning and perhaps already packing for a move to Houston. Hey look, it’s another righty slugger and solid defender for the ‘Stros. This signing has Jeff Bagwell written all over it. Say what you will about Houston, really go ahead nobody’s gonna stop you here, but I have to admit it’s fun that they’ve moving quickly and playing a little fast and loose with assets and money.

Speaking of fast and loose with assets and money, Las Vegas has entered the chat. The Rays were looking for someone to take Jeffrey Springs off their books, and the A’s obliged. Good for them, trying to make a good impression after all these years of pinching pennies. Cool. Cool cool cool.

Guardians 1B Kyle Manzardo looks like a trade-winds winner in the wake of Josh Naylor heading to Arizona. Then again, Cleveland might have an eye toward a cheap vet given the Goldschmidt pricing.

UPDATE: So many updates on this one. Carlos Santana signed with Cleveland about fifteen minutes after I wrote that sentence. $12 million. Bout the same as Goldschmidt. Couple mill less than Naylor would’ve cost. Baseball, Ray.

Thanks for reading!