Don't Believe the Hype About Georgia's Dramatic Drop in COVID-19 Cases (original) (raw)

Misleading Georgia data. After ending stay-at-home orders earlier than most states, Georgia last week reported that—contrary to dire warnings—the state had seen a dramatic decrease in the number of new COVID-19 cases and deaths. Very quickly, national media like The Wall Street Journal were crowing over this "welcome trend."

But that "welcome trend" appears to be a mirage. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp's office has since said that cases in the Peach State have not declined significantly and tracking data suggesting otherwise was misleading.

A big part of the problem: Some data for the week of May 2 were presented as coming chronologically before the week of April 26.

The state of Georgia made it look like its covid cases were going down ***by putting the dates out of order on its chart*** May 5 was followed by April 25, then back to May again, whatever made it look like a downslope. https://t.co/H8pSvY6rxn

— David Fahrenthold (@Fahrenthold) May 17, 2020

Another problem: Some data for early May are still missing.

That doesn't necessarily mean those dire predictions were right. Put in the right order, the figures presented last week by Georgia health officials still suggest that the state's COVID-19 cases have plateaued or even decreased slightly, notes the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. But these numbers are incomplete.

"Data collection lags and a quirk in the state's method of recording cases mean that counts for recent dates are often a fraction of what they turn out to be when the data is more complete," the paper points out.

Since the start of the pandemic, the Georgia Department of Public Health has repeatedly bungled information about the number of new COVID-19 cases and deaths. "Some of these errors could be forgiven as mistakes made during a chaotic time. But putting days in the wrong order, as the recently withdrawn chart did, makes no sense."

"I have a hard time understanding how this happens without it being deliberate," state Rep. Jasmine Clark (D–Lilburn), who has a PhD in microbiology and molecular genetics, told the paper. "Literally nowhere ever in any type of statistics would that be acceptable."

https://twitter.com/candicebroce/status/1259945971213111297

Elsewhere in the U.S., COVID-19 cases appear to be going down in some former hotspots while also rising in areas that had been doing OK.

This comes as state leaders have started easing and lifting lockdown orders, and as more people are doing less social distancing regardless of what authorities say. Because of lags in disease onset and data collection, the available numbers still largely reflect a period prior to the easing of restrictions.

Many areas that have been hard-hit continue to report mounting problems. "Dozensof deaths and thousands of new infections from the novel coronavirus were reported in the Washington region Saturday, even as some areas began welcoming droves of summertime visitors following the relaxation of quarantine restrictions in Virginia and Maryland," notes The Washington Post.

In Texas, some 1,800 new cases were reported on Saturday, bringing the total number of reported COVID-19 cases in the state to 47,000. "There were 33 additional deaths reported Saturday, bringing the total number of fatalities in the Lone Star State to 1,305," says CBS News.

In Georgia, "as of Monday morning, there were 37,910 confirmed cases," reports WJCL. The health department "is also reporting 1,612 coronavirus deaths and 6,864 hospitalizations." As of April 30th, Georgia had reported 26,260 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 1,132 deaths from it.

FREE MINDS

Justin Amash won't seek Libertarian Party nomination. Just a few weeks after announcing his bid to be the Libertarian Party's 2020 presidential nomination, Rep. Justin Amash (L–Mich.) announced on Sunday that he won't be running this year.

After much reflection, I've concluded that circumstances don't lend themselves to my success as a candidate for president this year, and therefore I will not be a candidate.

— Justin Amash (@justinamash) May 16, 2020

More from Reason's Matt Welch here. (See also: "Vermin Supreme Says This Time, He's Serious.")

FREE MARKETS

Judge says strip clubs can't be excluded from Small Business Administration loan program.

Federal judge (E.D. Mich.) rules that strip clubs cannot be blocked from obtaining emergency SBA loans. Says rule barring a wide range of businesses (incl. payday lenders) from obtaining those loans is invalid. https://t.co/bRXgKFY1sx

— Julie A. Hill (@ProfJulieHill) May 12, 2020

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• More on a dangerous inflammatory syndrome that appears to be hitting children who had previously had COVID-19.

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• The industries suffering the most economic consequences from the COVID-19 pandemic aren't those that people think:

The COVID-19 shock to American consumption is dramatic. But in furniture (-66.5%), electronics, appliances (-64.8) & clothing (-89.3) it is nothing short of a massacre. One for @SoberLookhttps://t.co/Cp3ParX20O pic.twitter.com/kZPJfKwYsX

— Adam Tooze (@adam_tooze) May 18, 2020

• Protecting and serving:

Days before Lauren McCluskey was killed, the officer assigned to her case showed off the explicit photos of her — evidence in her extortion case — to a male co-worker and bragged about getting to look at them whenever he wanted.https://t.co/w5nlJzzjm9 pic.twitter.com/3vvAgBT87K

— Courtney Tanner (@CourtneyLTanner) May 17, 2020