After Iran's Retaliatory Strike, Israel Considers Next Steps (original) (raw)

Iran's direct hit: On Saturday night, Iran launched 300 drones and missiles at Israel; the vast majority were intercepted. The damage appears to be minimal, but a few dozen people have reported injuries and some damage has been sustained at an Israeli military base in the Negev Desert.

The attack was a retaliation for an April 1 Israeli strike in Syria that struck an Iranian consulate complex and killed three senior commanders and four officers reportedly responsible for helping to dictate Iran's military strategy. "Israeli officials said the building was an outpost of the Revolutionary Guards, making it a legitimate military target," per The New York Times.

Israel knew Iran's retaliation was coming. In preparation for Iran's possible move, The Wall Street Journal reports, the U.S. military had repositioned several warships, including one destroyer reportedly carrying the Aegis missile-defense system. On Friday, President Joe Biden was asked about Iran's timing, and whether he had any message for its leaders. "My expectation is sooner than later," he said, in response to the first question. And he minced no words on the second, saying to Iran's government: "Don't."

Israel mostly used the Arrow 3 defense system, which halts ballistic missiles outside of the planet's atmosphere, as opposed to the more frequently used Iron Dome. Allies helped shoot down missiles and drones, including U.S. fighter jets—which destroyed 70-plus drones—and the repositioned warships, which shot down several missiles.

Now Israel is weighing its next move. Aggressive retaliation could increase the possibility of all-out war in the Middle East—which would include U.S. involvement in some form. Though a direct attack, not through proxies, is alarming, Iran did relatively little damage, possibly by design.

"I think Iran is very concerned about what comes next if they were too effective," Gen. Joseph L. Votel, a former leader of the U.S. military's Central Command, told The New York Times. "The early notification of what they were doing seems a little interesting to me."

Some Israeli military sources have pushed back on this idea, though: 300 missiles and drones was at the far end of the expected range, and Iran did not necessarily expect the Arrow 3 system to work as well as it did.

Iran sent hit men after journalists: At the end of March, the Persian journalist Pouria Zeraati, lead anchor for Iran International, was attacked outside of his home in southwestern London by men who appear to have been sent by the government of Iran, angered by Zeraati's critiques of the regime and his platforming of opposition figures and Mahsa protest leaders.

"With all the murder and mayhem that the Islamic Republic causes inside and outside its borders, the thankfully unsuccessful attempts on the lives of Rushdie and my friends from Iran International might seem secondary. But the fact that such attacks could take place on Western soil, in leafy Wimbledon or sedate Chautauqua, makes them especially harrowing," writes Arash Azizi for The Atlantic. "Iran's regime clearly feels threatened by the journalism of exiled reporters who break its monopoly on truth."

Iran faced domestic turmoil over the course of 2022 and 2023 following the death in government custody of Mahsa Amini. The morality police had beaten Amini for wearing her hijab improperly, and her death set off protests throughout the country, many of which were brutally suppressed. Internet blackouts were among the tools deployed to end dissent. But the recent targeting of expat journalists, on Western soil, indicates how much the regime fears, and seeks to eradicate, the spread of information.

Trump on trial: The first criminal trial of a former American president commences today in lower Manhattan, with jury selection.

Alvin Bragg, the Manhattan district attorney, has charged former President Donald Trump with 34 felonies related to falsifying records of hush money payments to porn actress Stormy Daniels. Trump is expected to appear most days in court. For the next two or so weeks, the jury will be selected—a bit of a tough task in blue New York, and with such a polarizing figure as Donald Trump. Judge Juan Merchan has imposed a gag order, so the former president will not be permitted to verbally go after jurors, prosecutors, witnesses, or the judge's family.

If convicted, Trump could face up to four years in prison. His other pending criminal cases are all delayed, but he has multiple legal ordeals to jump through, not to mention some $500 million in civil judgments to fork over. Oh, and he's still running for president.

Expect spectacle, several months of runtime, and—if you drive into Manhattan a lot, as I do—some miserable traffic. Do not expect voters' opinions to change much at all based on the verdict.

Scenes from Corpus Christi: This past weekend, I moderated the Libertarian Party of Texas' presidential debate between four candidates—Chase Oliver, Lars Mapstead, Mike ter Maat, and Michael Rectenwald. My dad, who lives in Austin, served as my chauffeur and graciously endured his first Libertarian Party event. Thanks, Dad! (Also: Peep the RFK Jr. fanfare in the lobby.)

Liz Wolfe

(Liz Wolfe)

Liz Wolfe

(Liz Wolfe)

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