Michael Dutschke | University of Groningen (original) (raw)
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The paper presents a detailed description of IMF and World Bank conditionality and tries to expla... more The paper presents a detailed description of IMF and World Bank conditionality and tries to explain changes in this conditionality over time as well as differences between the two institutions. Using panel data it is shown that the number of Fund conditions seem to be influenced by contemporaneous World Bank activity. Moreover, the paper tries to explain compliance with World Bank conditionality as well as interruptions of IMF programs in the recipient countries. Compliance with World Bank conditionality is lower in election years and pre-election years. Breakdowns of IMF programs are less likely in election years. However, no other political factors seem to influence interruptions and compliance systematically. The paper describes the institutions' reaction to recent criticism and concludes with implications for reform. Zusammenfassung Die mit den Krediten von IWF und Weltbank verknüpften Auflagen haben sich seit der Gründung der beiden internationalen Organisationen stark verändert. Während die Kreditvergabe zunächst nur an wenige Bedingungen geknüpft war, müssen heute eine Vielzahl von zum Teil sehr detaillierten Auflagen erfüllt werden. Diese Auflagen werden zunächst ausführlich beschrieben. Im Anschluss wird aus politisch-ökonomischer Sicht analysiert, welche Faktoren für deren Veränderung sowie Unterschiede in der Auflagenpolitik von Währungsfonds und Weltbank verantwortlich sind. Es wird außerdem versucht, die Zahl der in IWF-Programmen enthaltenen Auflagen ökonometrisch zu erklären. Dabei zeigt sich, dass diese Zahl mit dem gleichzeitigen Engagement der Weltbank in den kreditnehmenden Ländern steigt. Nachdem dargestellt wurde, inwieweit Weltbank-und IWF-Konditionen in der Vergangenheit befolgt wurden und welche Faktoren dafür verantwortlich sein könnten, wird eine weitere ökonometrische Analyse präsentiert. Es zeigt sich, dass die Auflagen der Weltbank vor Wahlen signifikant weniger häufig implementiert werden und dass Zusammenbrüche von IWF-Abkommen in Wahljahren weniger wahrscheinlich sind. Abschließend wird die Reaktion der beiden Institutionen auf die in den letzten Jahren zunehmende Kritik an ihrer Auflagenpolitik dargestellt. Außerdem werden Reformvorschläge unterbreitet.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2005
Global deforestation and forest degradation rates have a significant impact on the accumulation o... more Global deforestation and forest degradation rates have a significant impact on the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere. The Food and Agriculture Organization estimated that during the 1990s 16.1 million hectares per year were affected by deforestation, most of them in the tropics. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) calculated that, for the same period, the contribution of land use changes to GHG accumulation into the atmosphere was 1.6±0.8 Gigatonnes of carbon per year, a quantity that corresponds to 25% of the total annual global emissions of greenhouse gases. Under the Kyoto Protoco (KP), industrialized countries can use land-based activities, such as reducing deforestation, establishing new forests (afforestation and reforestation) and other vegetation types, managing agricultural and forestlands in a way that the “carbon sink” is maximized. Annex I countries may also claim credit for carbon sequestration in developing countries by afforesta...
Most of the developing world has been seeing flexible instruments as a pretext for industrialized... more Most of the developing world has been seeing flexible instruments as a pretext for industrialized nations to go on burning the earth's fossil fuel reserves while denying the developing world the benefits the industrialized countries have enjoyed until now. Others do not see any need at all for climate policy and think it diverts interest from development matters. The fact is that there are still doubts on the magnitude of the damage caused by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, while the dangers of poverty, social inequity and pollution are proved daily. However, there is a high degree of probability that today's developing countries will suffer most from climate change. The tropics are highly affected by disastrous climatic irregularities, like hurricanes, floods and droughts that are likely to grow in number and magnitude. Equity is an issue as well for the present and future distribution of emission rights. Development indicators being positively linked to GHG emissions, ...
Europe and Global Climate Change, 2007
Climate Policy, 2005
The European Commission is mandated to consider the inclusion of credits from land-use projects u... more The European Commission is mandated to consider the inclusion of credits from land-use projects under the clean development mechanism (CDM) and joint implementation (JI), beginning with the second period of the European Union’s emission trading scheme (ETS) in its report due in July 2006. Temporary credits from afforestation and reforestation under the CDM are seen by many as posing a technical problem for their use under the ETS. This article summarizes three feasible, efficient and environmentally sound alternatives for achieving the integration of such temporary credits in the European emissions trading market starting in 2008. The first proposal integrates tCERs and lCERs (temporary credits) into the EU ETS by allowing for their direct use for compliance purposes. The second proposal builds on the idea of swapping temporary credits for EU allowances (EUAs) by Member States. The third proposal would not require a political decision at the EU level. Instead supportive Member States or private carbon fund operators would agree to swap temporary credits for the CERs or ERUs they hold in their accounts. All three solutions would be linked to a risk-mitigation strategy based on levying a fee or fixing an exchange rate, which would allow governments to hedge the risk of losing temporary credits.
Keywords: CDM; ETS; LULUCF; Linking directive; Afforestation; Reforestation; Carbon sequestration; Temporary credits
Climate, Community and …, 2008
has been a guest researcher at the Hamburg Institute of International Economics for the months of... more has been a guest researcher at the Hamburg Institute of International Economics for the months of May and June 2003 and worked on this topic of immediate policy concern at the 18 th session of the Subsidiary Bodies at Bonn as a contribution to the HWWA Programme International Climate Policy.
The proposed hierarchy of production forest management provides modus operandi for forest concess... more The proposed hierarchy of production forest management provides modus operandi for forest concessions to move incrementally towards Sustainable Forest Management (SFM) via Reduced-Impact Logging (RIL) and forest certification. Financial benefits are sourced in the "Additionality Zone", financing the rise in the hierarchy and offsetting prohibitive forest and carbon certification costs. RIL carbon registration components consist of developing credible baseline, additionality and leakage arguments around the business-as-usual scenario through the quantification of historical forest inventory and production records, forest infrastructure records and damage to the residual forest. If conventional harvesting is taken as a baseline, research indicates RIL can potentially reduce emissions by approximately 1-7 tCO 2 e ha −1 yr −1. The current market price of USD 7.30pertCO2emayresultinoverUSD7.30 per tCO 2 e may result in over USD 7.30pertCO2emayresultinoverUSD50 ha −1 yr −1 in additional revenue, well above the estimated USD $3-5 ha −1 in carbon transaction costs. Concessions in Sabah Malaysia demonstrate the financial viability of long-term RIL and certification planning. This may act as a basis for future planned forest management activities involving RIL, carbon and forest certification through the hierarchy of production forest management.
Two case studies – one on a renewable energy project in Indonesia and another on Costa Rican clim... more Two case studies – one on a renewable energy project in Indonesia and another on Costa Rican climate policy – show the problems that are likely to be encountered by CDM and illustrate the importance of active host country involvement. The authors discuss the problems that will be addressed by forthcoming negotiation rounds and propose practical solutions for the CDM including baseline-setting, institutional structure and credit sharing. Moreover, a long-term view on linking climate and development policy is taken to achieve an equitable allocation of emission rights.
Between the completion of Closing the Gap and this report, Senator John Chafee, a Republican Sena... more Between the completion of Closing the Gap and this report, Senator John Chafee, a Republican Senator from Rhode Island, passed away. Senator Chafee introduced one of the Credit for Early Action proposals discussed in this report. While this report is critical of the proposal and advises other approaches to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, Senator Chafee's contribution to the search for solutions is deeply appreciated. Senator Chafee was widely respected for his search for solutions. His passing will be mourned.
Carbon sequestration projects in the context of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) suffer from... more Carbon sequestration projects in the context of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) suffer from the stigma of permanence risk. The risk that carbon reduced or sequestered in forestry projects is release further down the road is in fact undeniable, whoever bears the onus. The merit of the so-called ?ton/year approach? is to destroy the fiction of infinity when talking about permanent sequestration. The merit of the ?Columbian proposal? is to destroy the fiction of comparability between technological emission reduction and sequestration in natural systems. Yet, both approaches are discussed as more or less unrelated alternatives. By making use of both methodologies and providing a link between both proposals on permanence in CDM forestry, the present article puts forward the proposal of leasing reduction certificates.
Real-Time Evaluation of Norway's International Climate and Forest Initiative viii 3.2.5 Funding o... more Real-Time Evaluation of Norway's International Climate and Forest Initiative viii 3.2.5 Funding of policy and research studies by civil society and research organisations 3.3 Effectiveness of NICFI's policy advocacy 3.3.1 Progression of the REDD+ section of the UNFCCC negotiating text 3.3.2 Progress of overarching UNFCCC agreement 3.3.3 Progress with developing detailed modalities and processes 3.3.4 Development of the institutional framework for REDD+ implementation 3.3.5 Political commitment and momentum 3.3.6 The consistency and coherence of actions 3.4 Efficiency of NICFI's REDD+ policy advocacy 4. Conclusions and Recommendations 4.1 Overall progress in REDD+ policy 4.2 Norway's contribution to the development of REDD+ policy over the timeline of the evaluation 4.3 Clarity of Norway's policy objectives and conditions for future progress 4.4 Challenges and obstacles to achieving NICFI's policy objectives 57 4.5 Initial progress with interim actions 4.6 Norway's evolving role 4.7 Recommendations 4.8 Lessons learned in the real-time evaluation process, and suggestions for future evaluation 61 4.9 Concluding remarks References Annex 1 Interviewees and questionnaire respondents 67 Annex 2 Survey instruments Annex 3 Terms of Reference
This discussion paper originated from a workshop in Wageningen, The Netherlands, April 2003, a co... more This discussion paper originated from a workshop in Wageningen, The Netherlands, April 2003, a contribution to the project Concerted Action CarboEurope-GHG, which is part of the CarboEurope Cluster
Estos estandares de Clima, Comunidad y Biodiversidad para el diseno de proyectos (" estandar... more Estos estandares de Clima, Comunidad y Biodiversidad para el diseno de proyectos (" estandares CCB " por sus siglas en ingles) identifican proyectos basados en uso de tierra que pueden ofrecer beneficios convincentes de clima, biodiversidad y comunidad. Los estandares CCB han sido disenados principalmente para proyectos de mitigacion de cambio climatico. Los estandares fueron disenados por la Alianza de Clima, Comunidad y Biodiversidad (CCBA por sus siglas en ingles). La CCBA es una asociacion global de instituciones de investigacion, corporaciones y grupos ambientales, con la mision de desarrollar y promover estandares voluntarios para proyectos de uso de tierra con multiples beneficios. Para mas informacion acerca de CCBA, visite www.climate-standards.org o comuniquese con info@climate-standards.org. Esta primera edicion de los estandares CCB representa la culminacion de dos anos de investigacion y un proceso internacional amplio con multiples actores relacionados. Grupo...
The paper presents a detailed description of IMF and World Bank conditionality and tries to expla... more The paper presents a detailed description of IMF and World Bank conditionality and tries to explain changes in this conditionality over time as well as differences between the two institutions. Using panel data it is shown that the number of Fund conditions seem to be influenced by contemporaneous World Bank activity. Moreover, the paper tries to explain compliance with World Bank conditionality as well as interruptions of IMF programs in the recipient countries. Compliance with World Bank conditionality is lower in election years and pre-election years. Breakdowns of IMF programs are less likely in election years. However, no other political factors seem to influence interruptions and compliance systematically. The paper describes the institutions' reaction to recent criticism and concludes with implications for reform. Zusammenfassung Die mit den Krediten von IWF und Weltbank verknüpften Auflagen haben sich seit der Gründung der beiden internationalen Organisationen stark verändert. Während die Kreditvergabe zunächst nur an wenige Bedingungen geknüpft war, müssen heute eine Vielzahl von zum Teil sehr detaillierten Auflagen erfüllt werden. Diese Auflagen werden zunächst ausführlich beschrieben. Im Anschluss wird aus politisch-ökonomischer Sicht analysiert, welche Faktoren für deren Veränderung sowie Unterschiede in der Auflagenpolitik von Währungsfonds und Weltbank verantwortlich sind. Es wird außerdem versucht, die Zahl der in IWF-Programmen enthaltenen Auflagen ökonometrisch zu erklären. Dabei zeigt sich, dass diese Zahl mit dem gleichzeitigen Engagement der Weltbank in den kreditnehmenden Ländern steigt. Nachdem dargestellt wurde, inwieweit Weltbank-und IWF-Konditionen in der Vergangenheit befolgt wurden und welche Faktoren dafür verantwortlich sein könnten, wird eine weitere ökonometrische Analyse präsentiert. Es zeigt sich, dass die Auflagen der Weltbank vor Wahlen signifikant weniger häufig implementiert werden und dass Zusammenbrüche von IWF-Abkommen in Wahljahren weniger wahrscheinlich sind. Abschließend wird die Reaktion der beiden Institutionen auf die in den letzten Jahren zunehmende Kritik an ihrer Auflagenpolitik dargestellt. Außerdem werden Reformvorschläge unterbreitet.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2005
Global deforestation and forest degradation rates have a significant impact on the accumulation o... more Global deforestation and forest degradation rates have a significant impact on the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere. The Food and Agriculture Organization estimated that during the 1990s 16.1 million hectares per year were affected by deforestation, most of them in the tropics. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) calculated that, for the same period, the contribution of land use changes to GHG accumulation into the atmosphere was 1.6±0.8 Gigatonnes of carbon per year, a quantity that corresponds to 25% of the total annual global emissions of greenhouse gases. Under the Kyoto Protoco (KP), industrialized countries can use land-based activities, such as reducing deforestation, establishing new forests (afforestation and reforestation) and other vegetation types, managing agricultural and forestlands in a way that the “carbon sink” is maximized. Annex I countries may also claim credit for carbon sequestration in developing countries by afforesta...
Most of the developing world has been seeing flexible instruments as a pretext for industrialized... more Most of the developing world has been seeing flexible instruments as a pretext for industrialized nations to go on burning the earth's fossil fuel reserves while denying the developing world the benefits the industrialized countries have enjoyed until now. Others do not see any need at all for climate policy and think it diverts interest from development matters. The fact is that there are still doubts on the magnitude of the damage caused by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, while the dangers of poverty, social inequity and pollution are proved daily. However, there is a high degree of probability that today's developing countries will suffer most from climate change. The tropics are highly affected by disastrous climatic irregularities, like hurricanes, floods and droughts that are likely to grow in number and magnitude. Equity is an issue as well for the present and future distribution of emission rights. Development indicators being positively linked to GHG emissions, ...
Europe and Global Climate Change, 2007
Climate Policy, 2005
The European Commission is mandated to consider the inclusion of credits from land-use projects u... more The European Commission is mandated to consider the inclusion of credits from land-use projects under the clean development mechanism (CDM) and joint implementation (JI), beginning with the second period of the European Union’s emission trading scheme (ETS) in its report due in July 2006. Temporary credits from afforestation and reforestation under the CDM are seen by many as posing a technical problem for their use under the ETS. This article summarizes three feasible, efficient and environmentally sound alternatives for achieving the integration of such temporary credits in the European emissions trading market starting in 2008. The first proposal integrates tCERs and lCERs (temporary credits) into the EU ETS by allowing for their direct use for compliance purposes. The second proposal builds on the idea of swapping temporary credits for EU allowances (EUAs) by Member States. The third proposal would not require a political decision at the EU level. Instead supportive Member States or private carbon fund operators would agree to swap temporary credits for the CERs or ERUs they hold in their accounts. All three solutions would be linked to a risk-mitigation strategy based on levying a fee or fixing an exchange rate, which would allow governments to hedge the risk of losing temporary credits.
Keywords: CDM; ETS; LULUCF; Linking directive; Afforestation; Reforestation; Carbon sequestration; Temporary credits
Climate, Community and …, 2008
has been a guest researcher at the Hamburg Institute of International Economics for the months of... more has been a guest researcher at the Hamburg Institute of International Economics for the months of May and June 2003 and worked on this topic of immediate policy concern at the 18 th session of the Subsidiary Bodies at Bonn as a contribution to the HWWA Programme International Climate Policy.
The proposed hierarchy of production forest management provides modus operandi for forest concess... more The proposed hierarchy of production forest management provides modus operandi for forest concessions to move incrementally towards Sustainable Forest Management (SFM) via Reduced-Impact Logging (RIL) and forest certification. Financial benefits are sourced in the "Additionality Zone", financing the rise in the hierarchy and offsetting prohibitive forest and carbon certification costs. RIL carbon registration components consist of developing credible baseline, additionality and leakage arguments around the business-as-usual scenario through the quantification of historical forest inventory and production records, forest infrastructure records and damage to the residual forest. If conventional harvesting is taken as a baseline, research indicates RIL can potentially reduce emissions by approximately 1-7 tCO 2 e ha −1 yr −1. The current market price of USD 7.30pertCO2emayresultinoverUSD7.30 per tCO 2 e may result in over USD 7.30pertCO2emayresultinoverUSD50 ha −1 yr −1 in additional revenue, well above the estimated USD $3-5 ha −1 in carbon transaction costs. Concessions in Sabah Malaysia demonstrate the financial viability of long-term RIL and certification planning. This may act as a basis for future planned forest management activities involving RIL, carbon and forest certification through the hierarchy of production forest management.
Two case studies – one on a renewable energy project in Indonesia and another on Costa Rican clim... more Two case studies – one on a renewable energy project in Indonesia and another on Costa Rican climate policy – show the problems that are likely to be encountered by CDM and illustrate the importance of active host country involvement. The authors discuss the problems that will be addressed by forthcoming negotiation rounds and propose practical solutions for the CDM including baseline-setting, institutional structure and credit sharing. Moreover, a long-term view on linking climate and development policy is taken to achieve an equitable allocation of emission rights.
Between the completion of Closing the Gap and this report, Senator John Chafee, a Republican Sena... more Between the completion of Closing the Gap and this report, Senator John Chafee, a Republican Senator from Rhode Island, passed away. Senator Chafee introduced one of the Credit for Early Action proposals discussed in this report. While this report is critical of the proposal and advises other approaches to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, Senator Chafee's contribution to the search for solutions is deeply appreciated. Senator Chafee was widely respected for his search for solutions. His passing will be mourned.
Carbon sequestration projects in the context of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) suffer from... more Carbon sequestration projects in the context of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) suffer from the stigma of permanence risk. The risk that carbon reduced or sequestered in forestry projects is release further down the road is in fact undeniable, whoever bears the onus. The merit of the so-called ?ton/year approach? is to destroy the fiction of infinity when talking about permanent sequestration. The merit of the ?Columbian proposal? is to destroy the fiction of comparability between technological emission reduction and sequestration in natural systems. Yet, both approaches are discussed as more or less unrelated alternatives. By making use of both methodologies and providing a link between both proposals on permanence in CDM forestry, the present article puts forward the proposal of leasing reduction certificates.
Real-Time Evaluation of Norway's International Climate and Forest Initiative viii 3.2.5 Funding o... more Real-Time Evaluation of Norway's International Climate and Forest Initiative viii 3.2.5 Funding of policy and research studies by civil society and research organisations 3.3 Effectiveness of NICFI's policy advocacy 3.3.1 Progression of the REDD+ section of the UNFCCC negotiating text 3.3.2 Progress of overarching UNFCCC agreement 3.3.3 Progress with developing detailed modalities and processes 3.3.4 Development of the institutional framework for REDD+ implementation 3.3.5 Political commitment and momentum 3.3.6 The consistency and coherence of actions 3.4 Efficiency of NICFI's REDD+ policy advocacy 4. Conclusions and Recommendations 4.1 Overall progress in REDD+ policy 4.2 Norway's contribution to the development of REDD+ policy over the timeline of the evaluation 4.3 Clarity of Norway's policy objectives and conditions for future progress 4.4 Challenges and obstacles to achieving NICFI's policy objectives 57 4.5 Initial progress with interim actions 4.6 Norway's evolving role 4.7 Recommendations 4.8 Lessons learned in the real-time evaluation process, and suggestions for future evaluation 61 4.9 Concluding remarks References Annex 1 Interviewees and questionnaire respondents 67 Annex 2 Survey instruments Annex 3 Terms of Reference
This discussion paper originated from a workshop in Wageningen, The Netherlands, April 2003, a co... more This discussion paper originated from a workshop in Wageningen, The Netherlands, April 2003, a contribution to the project Concerted Action CarboEurope-GHG, which is part of the CarboEurope Cluster
Estos estandares de Clima, Comunidad y Biodiversidad para el diseno de proyectos (" estandar... more Estos estandares de Clima, Comunidad y Biodiversidad para el diseno de proyectos (" estandares CCB " por sus siglas en ingles) identifican proyectos basados en uso de tierra que pueden ofrecer beneficios convincentes de clima, biodiversidad y comunidad. Los estandares CCB han sido disenados principalmente para proyectos de mitigacion de cambio climatico. Los estandares fueron disenados por la Alianza de Clima, Comunidad y Biodiversidad (CCBA por sus siglas en ingles). La CCBA es una asociacion global de instituciones de investigacion, corporaciones y grupos ambientales, con la mision de desarrollar y promover estandares voluntarios para proyectos de uso de tierra con multiples beneficios. Para mas informacion acerca de CCBA, visite www.climate-standards.org o comuniquese con info@climate-standards.org. Esta primera edicion de los estandares CCB representa la culminacion de dos anos de investigacion y un proceso internacional amplio con multiples actores relacionados. Grupo...