Yaolin Shi | University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (original) (raw)

Papers by Yaolin Shi

Research paper thumbnail of Retrieval of lunar polar heat flow from Chang’E-2 microwave radiometer and Diviner observations

Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences, May 25, 2023

The internal heat flow related to the Moon's composition, interior structure, and evolution histo... more The internal heat flow related to the Moon's composition, interior structure, and evolution history is not well-constrained and understood on a global scale. Up to now, only two in situ heat flow experiments, Apollo 15 and 17 were deployed nearly 50 years ago. The measured high values of heat flow might be influenced by lateral heat at highland/mare boundaries and enhanced by heat production from radioactive elements enriched unit, and may also be disturbed by astronauts' activities. In this study, we proposed a new method to retrieve heat flows at two permanently shadowed craters, Haworth and Shoemaker of the Moon's south pole, from Chang'E-2 microwave radiometer data and Diviner observations. Our results show that the average heat flow is 4.9 ± 0.2 mW/m 2. This provides a constraint for the bulk concentration of Thorium within the lunar south polar crust 656 ± 54 ppb, which helps us understand the Moon's thermal evolution and differentiation.

Research paper thumbnail of A Review of Chinese Ice Caves

Earth Crust, 2019

Ice caves are a rare geological phenomenon. Ningwu ice cave, Zibaishan ice cave, and Wudalianchi ... more Ice caves are a rare geological phenomenon. Ningwu ice cave, Zibaishan ice cave, and Wudalianchi ice cave are the most famous ice caves in China. We described each one in detail and carried out thermal-elastic modeling and heat conduction modeling to investigate the stability of the cave and the formation of ice deposit. In order to quantitatively study the mechanism of formation and preservation of the ice cave, we applied the FEM to model the heat exchange in the ice cave. The modeling results revealed that there is the seasonal asymmetric energy exchange. Heat energy is conducted inefficiently into the ice cave from outside and wall rock in spring, summer, and autumn. While in winter, heat energy is transferred very efficiently due to the air natural convection, thus cooling it down. We proposed that Ningwu ice cave and Zibaishan ice cave may be a self-regulating system, respectively. At Wudalianchi ice cave, airtight doors have been installed at these ice caves' entrances. This actually prevents cooling in winter. We expect that no airtight door will be fixed at each ice cave's entrance, and few people enter the ice cave before comprehensive and detailed studies, avoiding further affecting its natural conditions.

Research paper thumbnail of Three-dimensional annular saturated crack propagation in ultralow permeability rock under wave & electro-magneto-thermo-elastic fields

This contribution presents a new theory with lattice Boltzmann & finite element & hypersingular i... more This contribution presents a new theory with lattice Boltzmann & finite element & hypersingular integral equation (LB-FE-HIE) to explore the three-dimensional pore-network cracks transient hydrofacturing-liquefaction in tight sandstone (3D PC-TH-TS) under seismic waves & electro-magneto-thermo-elastic fields through intricate theoretical analysis and numerical simulations. First, the 3D PN-TH-TS problem is reduced to solving a set of coupled LB-FE-HIEs by using the Green functions and distribution functions, in which the unknown functions are the extended pore-network cracks displacement discontinuities. Then, the behavior of the extended displacement discontinuities at the pore-network cracks surface terminating at the solid-liquid film interface are analyzed through extended dynamic hypersingular integral main-part analysis method of LB-FE-HIEs. Closed formed solutions for the extended singular dynamic stress, the extended dynamic stress intensity factor and the extended dynamic e...

Research paper thumbnail of Improved Stress Release Model and its Application to Earthquake Prediction in Taiwan

Stress release model (SRM) and coupled stress release model (CSRM) have been applied to seismicit... more Stress release model (SRM) and coupled stress release model (CSRM) have been applied to seismicity study. However, it is found that the peaks of earthquake conditional probability intensity often occur before the seismicity high in time domain. In this paper, we modified the SRM and CSRM in aspect of the relation between stress and earthquake probability. We assume that highest seismicity does not occur at the time of peak of highest stress, instead, there exist a time delay from the time of highest stress to the time of highest seismicity. The modified model is applied to the study of earthquakes in Taiwan. The result shows that the modified models, including the SRM and CSRM, can be applied to smaller scale of time (100 years) and space (~300km). Accuracy of earthquake occurrence time predicted by the modified coupled stress release model is higher than that by the old model in a test of retrospect earthquake prediction.

Research paper thumbnail of New insights to temperature and pressure beneath the central Southern Alps, New Zealand

New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics, 1995

Thermal modelling of the late Cenozoic compression in the area of maximum uplift of the Southern ... more Thermal modelling of the late Cenozoic compression in the area of maximum uplift of the Southern Alps, South Island, New Zealand, confirms that the recent uplift and erosion history is consistent with a surface temperature gradient of c. 60°C/km, and with paleotemperatures derived from zircon fission track ages of c. 250°C at 10 km depth. The present-day thermal regime at mid and lower crustal depths is cooler than that inferred from paleotemperatures preserved in the exhumed rock at the surface because of the effects of crustal thickening. The hot springs scattered through the northern half of the Southern Alps are meteoric water which has equilibrated with rock at temperatures of 90-150°C, suggesting circulation to a depth of <3 km. The hot springs constitute a minor component of the upper crustal heat flow, which appears to be predominantly conductive. Fluid pressure may approach lithostatic pressure below 3 km depth, implying a relatively weak crust. The fluid inclusion evidence for trapping of fluids at temperatures of 200-350°C may be mostly from infrequent, possibly coseismic, fluid flow events at depths of 5-15 km.

Research paper thumbnail of Are reservoir earthquakes man-made?

Ecology and the Environment, Sep 4, 2013

A debate on whether the Wenchuan Mw7.9 earthquake is triggered by the nearby Zipingpu reservoir h... more A debate on whether the Wenchuan Mw7.9 earthquake is triggered by the nearby Zipingpu reservoir has drawn the attention of both the scientific community and the general public. High performance computation provides a powerful new tool to quantitatively evaluate stresses produced by the weight of impoundment of reservoirs and the changes of pore pressure due to water diffusion along faults to the hypocenter. We calculated Coulomb stress changes of a number of reservoirs: including the hotly debated Zipingpu reservoir, the well known reservoir earthquake of Xinfengjiang in 1962, and the reservoir earthquake of Aswan in 1981. We have reached several main conclusions: Elastic energy increase due to the weight of impounded water is usually very small in comparison with seismic wave energy released by earthquakes of magnitude 6 or greater, these reservoir earthquakes are improper to be called man-made, but they are human activity triggered. Geological background and tectonic stresses control the occurrence of such large reservoir earthquakes. Stresses due to weight of impoundment may promote or prevent the occurrence of reservoir earthquakes determined by the location and nature of the earthquake fault. Pore pressure increase due to water penetration along permissive fault, however, always increases the risk of reservoir earthquakes. There seems no definite threshold value of Coulomb stress to trigger earthquake, it may varies from several kPa to 0.1MPa, depending on the magnitude of tectonic stresses and strength of the fault. The occurrence time of reservoir earthquakes after impoundment also varies from months to years depending on the permeability and stress of the fault zone. Geological surveys and numerical simulations may improve risk estimates before reservoir construction.

Research paper thumbnail of Decoding stress patterns of the 2023 Turkey-Syria earthquake doublet

Research Square (Research Square), May 18, 2023

Earthquake interaction across multiple time scales can reveal complex stress evolution and ruptur... more Earthquake interaction across multiple time scales can reveal complex stress evolution and rupture patterns. Here, we investigate the stress change's role in the 2023 Mw 7.8 and 7.6 earthquake doublet along the Eastern Anatolian Fault (EAF), using simulations of 21 historical earthquakes (M ≥ 6.1) from 1822 to 2023. Focusing on six cascading sub-events during the 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquake Sequence, we reveal how one sub-event's stress alteration can impact the emergence and rupture dynamics of subsequent sub-events. Our analysis unveils that the 2023 Mw 7.8 earthquake was deferred by 52 years due to stress shadow effects from historical events, while the 2023 Mw 7.6 earthquake was accelerated by 26 years as a result of stress increases from historical events and ultimately triggered by the 2023 Mw 7.8 earthquake. This study underscores the importance of grasping earthquake preparation, rupture initiation, and propagation in the context of intricate fault systems worldwide. Based on these results, we draw attention to heightened seismic hazards in the Elazig-Bingol seismic gap of the EAF and the northern section of the Dead Sea Fault, necessitating increased monitoring and preparedness efforts.

Research paper thumbnail of Roadmap for earthquake numerical forecasting in China&mdash;Reflection on the tenth anniversary of Wenchuan earthquake

Kexue tongbao, Jul 1, 2018

Research paper thumbnail of Plume‐Induced Rifting of Thickened Crust: 2D Numerical Model and Implications for N–S Rifts in Southern Tibet

Geophysical Research Letters, Dec 8, 2022

These models have been employed to explain crustal extension at different spatial scales, with th... more These models have been employed to explain crustal extension at different spatial scales, with the former three models supporting regional crustal extension, while the latter two models favoring local extension with either episodic acceleration in the upper crust (Styron et al., 2015) or local enhancement throughout the whole thickened crust (Tian et al., 2015). Geological and geodetic observations have demonstrated gradual increase of eastward velocity from west to east, with an average E-W extensional rate of approximately 20 mm/yr over 1,000 km across southern Tibet and Abstract N-S rifting is one of the most typical tectonics in southern Tibet, but its formation mechanism remains controversial. Geophysical observations indicated spatial correlations between rifts and lithospheric mantle anomalies, presumably caused by asthenospheric upwelling. Here, we investigate possible plume-induced rifting via a series of 2-D thermomechanical models of plume interactions with a heterogeneous lithosphere. The numerical results indicate that a small-scale mantle plume could promote the formation of a single giant rift throughout the whole thickened crust. In addition, presence of a weak mid-crustal zone facilitates the rifting development in the upper crust while inhibiting the formation of a giant crustal rift. Instead, multiple rifts develop in the upper crust and thickened crust, jointly controlled by a heterogeneous weak crustal zone and mantle plume. Our numerical results thus emphasize the distinct roles of the weak mid-crustal zone and small-scale mantle plume in promoting N-S rifting in southern Tibet. Plain Language Summary The Tibetan Plateau is one of the most spectacular orogenic belts on the Earth and is characterized by thickened crust and a series of rifts parallel to the collisional direction in the southern part. Systematic research on the formation mechanisms of these rifts can help us to comprehensively understand the dynamic processes during the sustained growth of Tibetan Plateau. To distinguish the preliminary driving forces of rifting, numerical geodynamic modeling was implemented to evaluate and justify several hotly debated hypotheses based on geophysical observations and geochemical constraints. Our 2D numerical modeling simulated the evolution of multiple rifts under the premise that the model configurations are comparable to the lithospheric structure determined via recent seismology imaging across a series of rifts in the study region. Moreover, comparative numerical simulations reveal distinct effects of the weak mid-crustal layer and small-scale mantle plume on promoting different types of rifts. Our simplified 2D model provides useful implications for the mechanism of hybrid passive-active rifting processes in southern Tibet.

Research paper thumbnail of Initiation of Triangle Zones by Delamination, Shear, and Compaction at the Front of Fold-and-Thrust Belts

Journal of Earthquakes, Mar 16, 2016

The interest of this paper is to investigate the initiation of triangle zones at the front of fol... more The interest of this paper is to investigate the initiation of triangle zones at the front of fold-and-thrust belts by analyzing the virtual velocity fields in triangle wedges. It allows achieving five collapse mechanisms by delamination, shear, and compaction of competing for the formation of triangle zones as follows. The first mechanism is the classical Coulomb shear thrust. The second is delamination at the frontal part of the décollement with straight back thrust, while the third is delamination with curvy back thrust. The fourth is the combination of ramp with Coulomb shear and shear-enhanced compact fault, while the fifth is the combination of the exchanging motion on the ramp and thrust. The dominating mechanism in the formation of triangle zones relies on the competition of the least upper bound of each mechanism when subjected to tectonic force. The controlling factors of the competition are discovered as follows: (1) the frictional characters and cohesion of horizontal décollements and thrust, (2) the slope of the topography of accretion wedge, and (3) the thickness and rock density of the front toe of accretion wedge.

Research paper thumbnail of Three-dimensional numerical modeling of the tectonic evolution of the series basins in the Hexi Corridor at the NE Tibetan Plateau

Research paper thumbnail of Roadmap for earthquake numerical forecasting in China—Reflection on the tenth anniversary of Wenchuan earthquake

Chinese Science Bulletin, 2018

Articles you may be interested in Development and distribution of geohazards triggered by the 5.1... more Articles you may be interested in Development and distribution of geohazards triggered by the 5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake in China Science in China Series E-Technological Sciences 52, 810 (2009); Numerical simulation of the separation between concrete face slabs and cushion layer of Zipingpu dam during the Wenchuan earthquake SCIENCE CHINA Technological Sciences 59, 531 (2016); Scaling behavior of magnitude clusters in aftershock sequence: An example of the Wenchuan Earthquake, China SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences 55, 507 (2012); Emergency aero-photo survey after the 5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake, China Science in China Series E-Technological Sciences 52, 835 (2009); Numerical simulation of strong ground motion for the M s 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake of

Research paper thumbnail of Lithospheric thickness of the Chinese continent

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 2006

We invert for the upper-mantle temperatures of the Chinese continent in the depth range of 70-240... more We invert for the upper-mantle temperatures of the Chinese continent in the depth range of 70-240 km from a recent S-velocity model. The depth where temperatures intersect a mantle adiabat with a potential temperature of ∼1300 • C is in close correspondence with the top of the seismic low velocity zone for most regions. This correspondence implies that seismic lithosphere estimated from short-time scale seismic information may be equivalent to the long-time scale geodynamical lithosphere. Defining the 1300 • C adiabat as coinciding with the lithospheric base, we estimate the seismic-thermal lithosphere thickness. The estimated thickness shows obvious dependence on the tectonic settings. Beneath eastern China, which mainly belongs to the circum-Pacific tectonic domain, it has a thickness of ∼100 km; and beneath the Qinghai-Tibet plateau and south to the Tarim craton, which belong to the Tethyan tectonic domain it has a thickness of ∼160-220 km. The lithospheric thicknesses of the three large para-platforms/cratons range from ∼170 km for the western Yangtze, ∼140 km for Tarim, and ∼100 km for Sino-Korean. The three cratons may have been reshaped by Phanerozoic tectonic activities and are thinner than most cratons in other continents.

Research paper thumbnail of Coupled Stress Release Model for Time-dependent Seismicity

pure and applied geophysics, 1999

Based on the original stress release model of seismicity proposed by VERE-JONES (1978), this pape... more Based on the original stress release model of seismicity proposed by VERE-JONES (1978), this paper has developed a stochastic coupled stress release model of time-dependent seismicity, which considers the earthquake interaction and stress transfer between different seismic subregions. As an example, the model is applied to a statistical analysis of the historical earthquake catalog with magnitude M] 6.0 during the period from 1480 to 1996 in North China. According to the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the results show that the coupled stress release model is better than the original model, which demonstrates the existence of long-range correlations between different seismic subregions. We also apply both the stochastic (original and developed coupled) models to analyze the synthetic catalog produced by a cellular automata model, which is based on mechanics of a slide-spring-damper system to model the fault network. The stress release model provides a good fit to the synthetic regional stress, and the coupled stress release model provides an improvement in fit to the synthetic catalog over the original model.

Research paper thumbnail of Progress of deep exploration in mainland China: A review

Chinese Journal of Geophysics- Chinese Edition

The SinoProbe is a multidisciplinary earth science research program of unprecedented scope and sc... more The SinoProbe is a multidisciplinary earth science research program of unprecedented scope and scientific ambition in geosciences. The overall aim of the SinoProbe is to reveal the composition, structure and evolution of the continental lithosphere in China. The SinoProbe (2008-2012) has successfully conducted researches and experiments on crust and mantle exploration technologies, accumulated abundance of experiences, and significantly accelerated China's development on deep exploration. It has made some new understandings on the Mesozoic-Cenozoic geological evolution of the mainland China. It has collected deep seismic reflection profiles in Tibet, South China, North China, and Northeast China for a length of ca. 6000 km, which accounts for the same length conducted previously in China. It have carried out national-wide geochemical baseline (with 78 elements) and magnetotelluric (MT) Array (by 4 degrees X 4 degrees, and 1 degrees X 1 degrees in North China and Tibet), 3D explo...

Research paper thumbnail of Dynamics of terrane accretion during seaward continental drifting and oceanic subduction: Numerical modeling and implications for the Jurassic crustal growth of the Lhasa Terrane, Tibet

Tectonophysics, Oct 1, 2018

The oceanic plateau subduction and resulted terrane accretion have played significant roles in th... more The oceanic plateau subduction and resulted terrane accretion have played significant roles in the continental crustal growth; however, the modes and dynamics of plateau accretion during subduction remains poorly understood. The oceanic subduction can be driven by the combined effects of slab pull, ridge push, as well as the possible overriding plate push. The latter one has been rarely studied, but can be the case during the multiple Tethyan slabs subduction and terranes accretion for the formation of Tibetan lithosphere in the Mesozoic. Using 2-D petrological-thermo-mechanical models, we systematically investigated the modes and dynamics of terrane accretion during the dominant seaward continental drifting and oceanic plateau subduction. The model results show that the plateau with continental crustal affinity favors accretion to the overriding plate during the subduction process. Three distinct terrane accretion modes are identified: frontal accretion, bottom accretion, and a transitional mode with both the frontal and bottom accretion. In contrast, the plateau with oceanic crustal affinity generally favors subduction and recycling into the deeper mantle, rather than accretion, which is mainly due to the higher density and possible eclogitization of the oceanic crustal materials during subduction. The numerical simulations further reveal that the controlling factor for the subduction style, i.e. flat versus steep subduction, is the age of the oceanic slab and the seaward overriding plate motion. The rheological properties and the convergence rate play minor roles in affecting the subducting slab angle. The model results are further compared with the Jurassic magmatic rock distribution and geochemical characteristics of the Lhasa Terrane in Tibet, which reveals (1) the transition from flat to steep subduction of the southward Bangong-Nujiang Tethyan slab; and (2) the mechanism of Jurassic crustal growth in the central Lhasa subterrane which may be strongly correlated with the bottom accretion of the subducted oceanic plateau.

Research paper thumbnail of Continental lithospheric-scale subduction versus crustal-scale underthrusting in the collision zone: Numerical modeling

Tectonophysics, Apr 1, 2019

Two distinct styles of continental collision are observed in nature, i.e. lithospheric-scale subd... more Two distinct styles of continental collision are observed in nature, i.e. lithospheric-scale subduction versus crustal-scale underthrusting. The former refers to a collision scenario where the lower plate subducts below the lithospheric mantle of the overriding plate, whereas the latter is characterized by the underthrusting of the subducting plate beneath the crust of overriding plate. Systematic numerical models were constructed to study the dynamics of these two different collision modes. The model results indicate that low convergence rate and cold overriding plate contribute to the lithospheric-scale subduction, which incorporates limited shortening of the overriding lithosphere during collision. In contrast, the crustal-scale underthrusting requires relatively high convergence rate and hot/weak overriding plate, in which the thickened lithospheric mantle of the overriding plate is progressively delaminated from the overlying crust and replaced by the sub-horizontally underthrusted plate. The model results were systematically compared with four ongoing collisional orogens along the Alpine-Himalayan belt, i.e. the central-western Alps, the East Anatolian plateau, the Zagros-Iranian plateau, and the southern Tibetan plateau. It indicates that the lithospheric-scale underthrusting is widely observed and generally consistent with the natural orogens, for example, the Alps, Anatolia and Zagros. On the other hand, the crustal-scale underthrusting model is reconciled with the India-Asia collision zone, with respect to the geodynamic conditions, crustal-lithospheric structure, as well as the uplift history.

Research paper thumbnail of Dynamics of oceanic slab tearing during transform-fault oblique subduction: Insights from 3D numerical modeling

Research paper thumbnail of Mechanical analysis of fault activation in southern Longmen Shan fold-and- thrust belt

Research paper thumbnail of India‐Tarim Lithospheric Mantle Collision Beneath Western Tibet Controls the Cenozoic Building of Tian Shan

Geophysical Research Letters, 2021

The ongoing India‐Asia collision principally regulates the Cenozoic tectonic deformation of the A... more The ongoing India‐Asia collision principally regulates the Cenozoic tectonic deformation of the Asian interior, and builds a far‐away but active spectacular intraplate orogen—Tian Shan. However, the deep processes and dynamics of far‐field deformation propagation and the resultant Tian Shan building remain ambiguous. Here, we construct systematic numerical models with variable thermo‐rheological properties of the orogen‐featured blocks and convergence rates, which reveal that the far‐field effect of India‐Asia collision on the Tian Shan building is strongly controlled by the direct collision of Indian lithospheric mantle with the rigid Tarim block beneath western Tibet. The model results, together with the well‐established geological and geophysical constraints, not only reconcile the first‐order crustal and lithospheric structures of the western Tibetan plateau and Tian Shan, but also confirm a >30 Myr time lag between the initial India‐Asia collision and the far‐field Tian Shan...

Research paper thumbnail of Retrieval of lunar polar heat flow from Chang’E-2 microwave radiometer and Diviner observations

Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences, May 25, 2023

The internal heat flow related to the Moon's composition, interior structure, and evolution histo... more The internal heat flow related to the Moon's composition, interior structure, and evolution history is not well-constrained and understood on a global scale. Up to now, only two in situ heat flow experiments, Apollo 15 and 17 were deployed nearly 50 years ago. The measured high values of heat flow might be influenced by lateral heat at highland/mare boundaries and enhanced by heat production from radioactive elements enriched unit, and may also be disturbed by astronauts' activities. In this study, we proposed a new method to retrieve heat flows at two permanently shadowed craters, Haworth and Shoemaker of the Moon's south pole, from Chang'E-2 microwave radiometer data and Diviner observations. Our results show that the average heat flow is 4.9 ± 0.2 mW/m 2. This provides a constraint for the bulk concentration of Thorium within the lunar south polar crust 656 ± 54 ppb, which helps us understand the Moon's thermal evolution and differentiation.

Research paper thumbnail of A Review of Chinese Ice Caves

Earth Crust, 2019

Ice caves are a rare geological phenomenon. Ningwu ice cave, Zibaishan ice cave, and Wudalianchi ... more Ice caves are a rare geological phenomenon. Ningwu ice cave, Zibaishan ice cave, and Wudalianchi ice cave are the most famous ice caves in China. We described each one in detail and carried out thermal-elastic modeling and heat conduction modeling to investigate the stability of the cave and the formation of ice deposit. In order to quantitatively study the mechanism of formation and preservation of the ice cave, we applied the FEM to model the heat exchange in the ice cave. The modeling results revealed that there is the seasonal asymmetric energy exchange. Heat energy is conducted inefficiently into the ice cave from outside and wall rock in spring, summer, and autumn. While in winter, heat energy is transferred very efficiently due to the air natural convection, thus cooling it down. We proposed that Ningwu ice cave and Zibaishan ice cave may be a self-regulating system, respectively. At Wudalianchi ice cave, airtight doors have been installed at these ice caves' entrances. This actually prevents cooling in winter. We expect that no airtight door will be fixed at each ice cave's entrance, and few people enter the ice cave before comprehensive and detailed studies, avoiding further affecting its natural conditions.

Research paper thumbnail of Three-dimensional annular saturated crack propagation in ultralow permeability rock under wave & electro-magneto-thermo-elastic fields

This contribution presents a new theory with lattice Boltzmann & finite element & hypersingular i... more This contribution presents a new theory with lattice Boltzmann & finite element & hypersingular integral equation (LB-FE-HIE) to explore the three-dimensional pore-network cracks transient hydrofacturing-liquefaction in tight sandstone (3D PC-TH-TS) under seismic waves & electro-magneto-thermo-elastic fields through intricate theoretical analysis and numerical simulations. First, the 3D PN-TH-TS problem is reduced to solving a set of coupled LB-FE-HIEs by using the Green functions and distribution functions, in which the unknown functions are the extended pore-network cracks displacement discontinuities. Then, the behavior of the extended displacement discontinuities at the pore-network cracks surface terminating at the solid-liquid film interface are analyzed through extended dynamic hypersingular integral main-part analysis method of LB-FE-HIEs. Closed formed solutions for the extended singular dynamic stress, the extended dynamic stress intensity factor and the extended dynamic e...

Research paper thumbnail of Improved Stress Release Model and its Application to Earthquake Prediction in Taiwan

Stress release model (SRM) and coupled stress release model (CSRM) have been applied to seismicit... more Stress release model (SRM) and coupled stress release model (CSRM) have been applied to seismicity study. However, it is found that the peaks of earthquake conditional probability intensity often occur before the seismicity high in time domain. In this paper, we modified the SRM and CSRM in aspect of the relation between stress and earthquake probability. We assume that highest seismicity does not occur at the time of peak of highest stress, instead, there exist a time delay from the time of highest stress to the time of highest seismicity. The modified model is applied to the study of earthquakes in Taiwan. The result shows that the modified models, including the SRM and CSRM, can be applied to smaller scale of time (100 years) and space (~300km). Accuracy of earthquake occurrence time predicted by the modified coupled stress release model is higher than that by the old model in a test of retrospect earthquake prediction.

Research paper thumbnail of New insights to temperature and pressure beneath the central Southern Alps, New Zealand

New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics, 1995

Thermal modelling of the late Cenozoic compression in the area of maximum uplift of the Southern ... more Thermal modelling of the late Cenozoic compression in the area of maximum uplift of the Southern Alps, South Island, New Zealand, confirms that the recent uplift and erosion history is consistent with a surface temperature gradient of c. 60°C/km, and with paleotemperatures derived from zircon fission track ages of c. 250°C at 10 km depth. The present-day thermal regime at mid and lower crustal depths is cooler than that inferred from paleotemperatures preserved in the exhumed rock at the surface because of the effects of crustal thickening. The hot springs scattered through the northern half of the Southern Alps are meteoric water which has equilibrated with rock at temperatures of 90-150°C, suggesting circulation to a depth of <3 km. The hot springs constitute a minor component of the upper crustal heat flow, which appears to be predominantly conductive. Fluid pressure may approach lithostatic pressure below 3 km depth, implying a relatively weak crust. The fluid inclusion evidence for trapping of fluids at temperatures of 200-350°C may be mostly from infrequent, possibly coseismic, fluid flow events at depths of 5-15 km.

Research paper thumbnail of Are reservoir earthquakes man-made?

Ecology and the Environment, Sep 4, 2013

A debate on whether the Wenchuan Mw7.9 earthquake is triggered by the nearby Zipingpu reservoir h... more A debate on whether the Wenchuan Mw7.9 earthquake is triggered by the nearby Zipingpu reservoir has drawn the attention of both the scientific community and the general public. High performance computation provides a powerful new tool to quantitatively evaluate stresses produced by the weight of impoundment of reservoirs and the changes of pore pressure due to water diffusion along faults to the hypocenter. We calculated Coulomb stress changes of a number of reservoirs: including the hotly debated Zipingpu reservoir, the well known reservoir earthquake of Xinfengjiang in 1962, and the reservoir earthquake of Aswan in 1981. We have reached several main conclusions: Elastic energy increase due to the weight of impounded water is usually very small in comparison with seismic wave energy released by earthquakes of magnitude 6 or greater, these reservoir earthquakes are improper to be called man-made, but they are human activity triggered. Geological background and tectonic stresses control the occurrence of such large reservoir earthquakes. Stresses due to weight of impoundment may promote or prevent the occurrence of reservoir earthquakes determined by the location and nature of the earthquake fault. Pore pressure increase due to water penetration along permissive fault, however, always increases the risk of reservoir earthquakes. There seems no definite threshold value of Coulomb stress to trigger earthquake, it may varies from several kPa to 0.1MPa, depending on the magnitude of tectonic stresses and strength of the fault. The occurrence time of reservoir earthquakes after impoundment also varies from months to years depending on the permeability and stress of the fault zone. Geological surveys and numerical simulations may improve risk estimates before reservoir construction.

Research paper thumbnail of Decoding stress patterns of the 2023 Turkey-Syria earthquake doublet

Research Square (Research Square), May 18, 2023

Earthquake interaction across multiple time scales can reveal complex stress evolution and ruptur... more Earthquake interaction across multiple time scales can reveal complex stress evolution and rupture patterns. Here, we investigate the stress change's role in the 2023 Mw 7.8 and 7.6 earthquake doublet along the Eastern Anatolian Fault (EAF), using simulations of 21 historical earthquakes (M ≥ 6.1) from 1822 to 2023. Focusing on six cascading sub-events during the 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquake Sequence, we reveal how one sub-event's stress alteration can impact the emergence and rupture dynamics of subsequent sub-events. Our analysis unveils that the 2023 Mw 7.8 earthquake was deferred by 52 years due to stress shadow effects from historical events, while the 2023 Mw 7.6 earthquake was accelerated by 26 years as a result of stress increases from historical events and ultimately triggered by the 2023 Mw 7.8 earthquake. This study underscores the importance of grasping earthquake preparation, rupture initiation, and propagation in the context of intricate fault systems worldwide. Based on these results, we draw attention to heightened seismic hazards in the Elazig-Bingol seismic gap of the EAF and the northern section of the Dead Sea Fault, necessitating increased monitoring and preparedness efforts.

Research paper thumbnail of Roadmap for earthquake numerical forecasting in China&mdash;Reflection on the tenth anniversary of Wenchuan earthquake

Kexue tongbao, Jul 1, 2018

Research paper thumbnail of Plume‐Induced Rifting of Thickened Crust: 2D Numerical Model and Implications for N–S Rifts in Southern Tibet

Geophysical Research Letters, Dec 8, 2022

These models have been employed to explain crustal extension at different spatial scales, with th... more These models have been employed to explain crustal extension at different spatial scales, with the former three models supporting regional crustal extension, while the latter two models favoring local extension with either episodic acceleration in the upper crust (Styron et al., 2015) or local enhancement throughout the whole thickened crust (Tian et al., 2015). Geological and geodetic observations have demonstrated gradual increase of eastward velocity from west to east, with an average E-W extensional rate of approximately 20 mm/yr over 1,000 km across southern Tibet and Abstract N-S rifting is one of the most typical tectonics in southern Tibet, but its formation mechanism remains controversial. Geophysical observations indicated spatial correlations between rifts and lithospheric mantle anomalies, presumably caused by asthenospheric upwelling. Here, we investigate possible plume-induced rifting via a series of 2-D thermomechanical models of plume interactions with a heterogeneous lithosphere. The numerical results indicate that a small-scale mantle plume could promote the formation of a single giant rift throughout the whole thickened crust. In addition, presence of a weak mid-crustal zone facilitates the rifting development in the upper crust while inhibiting the formation of a giant crustal rift. Instead, multiple rifts develop in the upper crust and thickened crust, jointly controlled by a heterogeneous weak crustal zone and mantle plume. Our numerical results thus emphasize the distinct roles of the weak mid-crustal zone and small-scale mantle plume in promoting N-S rifting in southern Tibet. Plain Language Summary The Tibetan Plateau is one of the most spectacular orogenic belts on the Earth and is characterized by thickened crust and a series of rifts parallel to the collisional direction in the southern part. Systematic research on the formation mechanisms of these rifts can help us to comprehensively understand the dynamic processes during the sustained growth of Tibetan Plateau. To distinguish the preliminary driving forces of rifting, numerical geodynamic modeling was implemented to evaluate and justify several hotly debated hypotheses based on geophysical observations and geochemical constraints. Our 2D numerical modeling simulated the evolution of multiple rifts under the premise that the model configurations are comparable to the lithospheric structure determined via recent seismology imaging across a series of rifts in the study region. Moreover, comparative numerical simulations reveal distinct effects of the weak mid-crustal layer and small-scale mantle plume on promoting different types of rifts. Our simplified 2D model provides useful implications for the mechanism of hybrid passive-active rifting processes in southern Tibet.

Research paper thumbnail of Initiation of Triangle Zones by Delamination, Shear, and Compaction at the Front of Fold-and-Thrust Belts

Journal of Earthquakes, Mar 16, 2016

The interest of this paper is to investigate the initiation of triangle zones at the front of fol... more The interest of this paper is to investigate the initiation of triangle zones at the front of fold-and-thrust belts by analyzing the virtual velocity fields in triangle wedges. It allows achieving five collapse mechanisms by delamination, shear, and compaction of competing for the formation of triangle zones as follows. The first mechanism is the classical Coulomb shear thrust. The second is delamination at the frontal part of the décollement with straight back thrust, while the third is delamination with curvy back thrust. The fourth is the combination of ramp with Coulomb shear and shear-enhanced compact fault, while the fifth is the combination of the exchanging motion on the ramp and thrust. The dominating mechanism in the formation of triangle zones relies on the competition of the least upper bound of each mechanism when subjected to tectonic force. The controlling factors of the competition are discovered as follows: (1) the frictional characters and cohesion of horizontal décollements and thrust, (2) the slope of the topography of accretion wedge, and (3) the thickness and rock density of the front toe of accretion wedge.

Research paper thumbnail of Three-dimensional numerical modeling of the tectonic evolution of the series basins in the Hexi Corridor at the NE Tibetan Plateau

Research paper thumbnail of Roadmap for earthquake numerical forecasting in China—Reflection on the tenth anniversary of Wenchuan earthquake

Chinese Science Bulletin, 2018

Articles you may be interested in Development and distribution of geohazards triggered by the 5.1... more Articles you may be interested in Development and distribution of geohazards triggered by the 5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake in China Science in China Series E-Technological Sciences 52, 810 (2009); Numerical simulation of the separation between concrete face slabs and cushion layer of Zipingpu dam during the Wenchuan earthquake SCIENCE CHINA Technological Sciences 59, 531 (2016); Scaling behavior of magnitude clusters in aftershock sequence: An example of the Wenchuan Earthquake, China SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences 55, 507 (2012); Emergency aero-photo survey after the 5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake, China Science in China Series E-Technological Sciences 52, 835 (2009); Numerical simulation of strong ground motion for the M s 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake of

Research paper thumbnail of Lithospheric thickness of the Chinese continent

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 2006

We invert for the upper-mantle temperatures of the Chinese continent in the depth range of 70-240... more We invert for the upper-mantle temperatures of the Chinese continent in the depth range of 70-240 km from a recent S-velocity model. The depth where temperatures intersect a mantle adiabat with a potential temperature of ∼1300 • C is in close correspondence with the top of the seismic low velocity zone for most regions. This correspondence implies that seismic lithosphere estimated from short-time scale seismic information may be equivalent to the long-time scale geodynamical lithosphere. Defining the 1300 • C adiabat as coinciding with the lithospheric base, we estimate the seismic-thermal lithosphere thickness. The estimated thickness shows obvious dependence on the tectonic settings. Beneath eastern China, which mainly belongs to the circum-Pacific tectonic domain, it has a thickness of ∼100 km; and beneath the Qinghai-Tibet plateau and south to the Tarim craton, which belong to the Tethyan tectonic domain it has a thickness of ∼160-220 km. The lithospheric thicknesses of the three large para-platforms/cratons range from ∼170 km for the western Yangtze, ∼140 km for Tarim, and ∼100 km for Sino-Korean. The three cratons may have been reshaped by Phanerozoic tectonic activities and are thinner than most cratons in other continents.

Research paper thumbnail of Coupled Stress Release Model for Time-dependent Seismicity

pure and applied geophysics, 1999

Based on the original stress release model of seismicity proposed by VERE-JONES (1978), this pape... more Based on the original stress release model of seismicity proposed by VERE-JONES (1978), this paper has developed a stochastic coupled stress release model of time-dependent seismicity, which considers the earthquake interaction and stress transfer between different seismic subregions. As an example, the model is applied to a statistical analysis of the historical earthquake catalog with magnitude M] 6.0 during the period from 1480 to 1996 in North China. According to the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the results show that the coupled stress release model is better than the original model, which demonstrates the existence of long-range correlations between different seismic subregions. We also apply both the stochastic (original and developed coupled) models to analyze the synthetic catalog produced by a cellular automata model, which is based on mechanics of a slide-spring-damper system to model the fault network. The stress release model provides a good fit to the synthetic regional stress, and the coupled stress release model provides an improvement in fit to the synthetic catalog over the original model.

Research paper thumbnail of Progress of deep exploration in mainland China: A review

Chinese Journal of Geophysics- Chinese Edition

The SinoProbe is a multidisciplinary earth science research program of unprecedented scope and sc... more The SinoProbe is a multidisciplinary earth science research program of unprecedented scope and scientific ambition in geosciences. The overall aim of the SinoProbe is to reveal the composition, structure and evolution of the continental lithosphere in China. The SinoProbe (2008-2012) has successfully conducted researches and experiments on crust and mantle exploration technologies, accumulated abundance of experiences, and significantly accelerated China's development on deep exploration. It has made some new understandings on the Mesozoic-Cenozoic geological evolution of the mainland China. It has collected deep seismic reflection profiles in Tibet, South China, North China, and Northeast China for a length of ca. 6000 km, which accounts for the same length conducted previously in China. It have carried out national-wide geochemical baseline (with 78 elements) and magnetotelluric (MT) Array (by 4 degrees X 4 degrees, and 1 degrees X 1 degrees in North China and Tibet), 3D explo...

Research paper thumbnail of Dynamics of terrane accretion during seaward continental drifting and oceanic subduction: Numerical modeling and implications for the Jurassic crustal growth of the Lhasa Terrane, Tibet

Tectonophysics, Oct 1, 2018

The oceanic plateau subduction and resulted terrane accretion have played significant roles in th... more The oceanic plateau subduction and resulted terrane accretion have played significant roles in the continental crustal growth; however, the modes and dynamics of plateau accretion during subduction remains poorly understood. The oceanic subduction can be driven by the combined effects of slab pull, ridge push, as well as the possible overriding plate push. The latter one has been rarely studied, but can be the case during the multiple Tethyan slabs subduction and terranes accretion for the formation of Tibetan lithosphere in the Mesozoic. Using 2-D petrological-thermo-mechanical models, we systematically investigated the modes and dynamics of terrane accretion during the dominant seaward continental drifting and oceanic plateau subduction. The model results show that the plateau with continental crustal affinity favors accretion to the overriding plate during the subduction process. Three distinct terrane accretion modes are identified: frontal accretion, bottom accretion, and a transitional mode with both the frontal and bottom accretion. In contrast, the plateau with oceanic crustal affinity generally favors subduction and recycling into the deeper mantle, rather than accretion, which is mainly due to the higher density and possible eclogitization of the oceanic crustal materials during subduction. The numerical simulations further reveal that the controlling factor for the subduction style, i.e. flat versus steep subduction, is the age of the oceanic slab and the seaward overriding plate motion. The rheological properties and the convergence rate play minor roles in affecting the subducting slab angle. The model results are further compared with the Jurassic magmatic rock distribution and geochemical characteristics of the Lhasa Terrane in Tibet, which reveals (1) the transition from flat to steep subduction of the southward Bangong-Nujiang Tethyan slab; and (2) the mechanism of Jurassic crustal growth in the central Lhasa subterrane which may be strongly correlated with the bottom accretion of the subducted oceanic plateau.

Research paper thumbnail of Continental lithospheric-scale subduction versus crustal-scale underthrusting in the collision zone: Numerical modeling

Tectonophysics, Apr 1, 2019

Two distinct styles of continental collision are observed in nature, i.e. lithospheric-scale subd... more Two distinct styles of continental collision are observed in nature, i.e. lithospheric-scale subduction versus crustal-scale underthrusting. The former refers to a collision scenario where the lower plate subducts below the lithospheric mantle of the overriding plate, whereas the latter is characterized by the underthrusting of the subducting plate beneath the crust of overriding plate. Systematic numerical models were constructed to study the dynamics of these two different collision modes. The model results indicate that low convergence rate and cold overriding plate contribute to the lithospheric-scale subduction, which incorporates limited shortening of the overriding lithosphere during collision. In contrast, the crustal-scale underthrusting requires relatively high convergence rate and hot/weak overriding plate, in which the thickened lithospheric mantle of the overriding plate is progressively delaminated from the overlying crust and replaced by the sub-horizontally underthrusted plate. The model results were systematically compared with four ongoing collisional orogens along the Alpine-Himalayan belt, i.e. the central-western Alps, the East Anatolian plateau, the Zagros-Iranian plateau, and the southern Tibetan plateau. It indicates that the lithospheric-scale underthrusting is widely observed and generally consistent with the natural orogens, for example, the Alps, Anatolia and Zagros. On the other hand, the crustal-scale underthrusting model is reconciled with the India-Asia collision zone, with respect to the geodynamic conditions, crustal-lithospheric structure, as well as the uplift history.

Research paper thumbnail of Dynamics of oceanic slab tearing during transform-fault oblique subduction: Insights from 3D numerical modeling

Research paper thumbnail of Mechanical analysis of fault activation in southern Longmen Shan fold-and- thrust belt

Research paper thumbnail of India‐Tarim Lithospheric Mantle Collision Beneath Western Tibet Controls the Cenozoic Building of Tian Shan

Geophysical Research Letters, 2021

The ongoing India‐Asia collision principally regulates the Cenozoic tectonic deformation of the A... more The ongoing India‐Asia collision principally regulates the Cenozoic tectonic deformation of the Asian interior, and builds a far‐away but active spectacular intraplate orogen—Tian Shan. However, the deep processes and dynamics of far‐field deformation propagation and the resultant Tian Shan building remain ambiguous. Here, we construct systematic numerical models with variable thermo‐rheological properties of the orogen‐featured blocks and convergence rates, which reveal that the far‐field effect of India‐Asia collision on the Tian Shan building is strongly controlled by the direct collision of Indian lithospheric mantle with the rigid Tarim block beneath western Tibet. The model results, together with the well‐established geological and geophysical constraints, not only reconcile the first‐order crustal and lithospheric structures of the western Tibetan plateau and Tian Shan, but also confirm a >30 Myr time lag between the initial India‐Asia collision and the far‐field Tian Shan...