Martin Edwards | Seton Hall University (original) (raw)

Papers by Martin Edwards

Topics in Macroeconomics, 2006

Using levels of democratic development as a proxy for economic development, and using a 2SLS GMM ... more Using levels of democratic development as a proxy for economic development, and using a 2SLS GMM dynamic panel estimation methodology, we investigate the degree and direction of dissemination in the volatility of economic growth. Our findings indicate two essential points. First, there are differences along the democratic continuum of the ability of a country's economic growth volatility to affect other countries. Thus, an economic recession for example in one country, does not affect all countries equally across regime type. Second, growth volatility is not simply a North-South phenomenon, but a South-South phenomenon as well. In fact, the empirical patterns found here call into question the usefulness of relying on even these simple, dichotomous views of the world.

This essay summarizes the results of a larger study evaluating the effectiveness of OECD economic... more This essay summarizes the results of a larger study evaluating the effectiveness of OECD economic surveillance in 24 randomly selected countries. Because the OECD’s advice is only backed by peer pressure, we would expect little evidence that this advice leads countries to adopt policy reforms. Through evaluating subsamples of cases of countries under economic crisis, exploiting within-country variation, and drawing comparisons with more legalized international organizations, we conclude that surveillance can indeed lead to policy reform.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2011

A prominent liberal explanation for why states join international organizations is to advance nor... more A prominent liberal explanation for why states join international organizations is to advance norms that such organi-zations represent. The authors examine the patterns of membership on the now-defunct United Nations Human Rights Commission (now the UN Human Rights Council). In regions where democratic norms did not hold sway, members were elected to degrade human rights norms. Illiberal states sought seats to shield themselves or neighbors from cen-sure by the Commission. As regions became more democratic, it became harder for states with poor records to be elected and easier for states with better human rights records to be elected.

SAIS Review of International Affairs, 2014

The proposed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) now contain an innovative new goal focusing on ... more The proposed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) now contain an innovative new goal focusing on promoting peaceful societies and building effective and accountable institutions. While these goals are being negotiated, it is worth asking whether this goal can help shape debates about development or whether we will look back on this in fifteen years as empty rhetoric. We argue that this governance goal has transformative potential on a number of fronts, including shaping the UN system, fragile states, and developed countries; but generating significant results will require the development of concrete and measurable indicators for peace and governance.

The Review of International Organizations, 2009

Public opinions regarding the international economic organizations (IEOs; the IMF, World Bank, an... more Public opinions regarding the international economic organizations (IEOs; the IMF, World Bank, and WTO) are understudied. I contrast five lines of argument using a multi-country survey of developing countries, focusing on evaluations of the economy, skills, gender, and ideology and measures of involvement with the organizations themselves. At the individual level, respondents have negative views if they have negative views

International Studies Perspectives, 2013

Journal of International Relations and Development, 2006

International Monetary Fund (IMF) programmes are thought to function as a seal of approval to int... more International Monetary Fund (IMF) programmes are thought to function as a seal of approval to international markets although evidence suggests that Fund programmes do not attract capital inflows. Existing studies fail to address the effects of selection into IMF programmes, which raises questions about the robustness of the findings. Correcting for selection bias, I find that states under Fund programmes experience significant outflows of portfolio investment, which is a 'most likely case' for catalytic effects. The source of this capital flight is the 'medicine' (the Fund programme), not the 'disease' (the economic downturn necessitating the IMF programme). I argue that austerity deters portfolio inflows through its effects on future returns. These findings confirm previous studies and have broader implications for both the influence of IMF programmes and the politics of economic reform.

Rights Commission A prominent liberal explanation for why states join international organizations... more Rights Commission A prominent liberal explanation for why states join international organizations is to advance norms that such organizations represent. We examine the patterns of membership on the now-defunct United Nations Human Rights Commission (now the UN Human Rights Council). In regions where democratic norms did not hold sway, members were elected to degrade human rights norms. Illiberal states sought seats in order to shield themselves or neighbors from censure by the Commission. As regions became more democratic, it became harder for states with poor records to be elected and easier for states with better human rights records to be elected. 2

Recent criticisms of the International Monetary Fund focus on its inattention to the role of poli... more Recent criticisms of the International Monetary Fund focus on its inattention to the role of political institutions in shaping the ability of states to meet the conditions required in austerity programs. To what extent are these criticisms, which I term the information hypothesis, valid? As an initial pass at this question, I assess the Fund"s response to the approach of elections in countries under its programs. The conventional wisdom is that elections lead to program suspension, though this raises the question of whether the IMF responds proactively to the approach of elections by altering conditionality. The problem with using conventional discrete choice models to answer this question is that they force the variance across cases to be a constant. The variance surrounding program suspensions, however, is a proxy for the countries "margin of error" between economic performance and program suspension. As a result, models that force the variance to be constant across cases limit what we can learn about the Fund"s response to political shocks. Using a heteroskedastic probit model, I find that the approach of elections alters the variance surrounding program suspensions, providing another piece of evidence to counter the information hypothesis.

Rev Int Polit Econ, 2006

Empirical studies of public opinion regarding globalization have to date addressed only economic ... more Empirical studies of public opinion regarding globalization have to date addressed only economic integration. By way of comparison, we know much less about public opinion regarding cultural globalization. In addition, there has been little head-to-head testing of alternative explanations for public opinions in these areas. I contrast four arguments: skills, partisanship, economic evaluations, and beliefs about the free market, consumerism, and modern life, which I test using survey information taken from 17 developed and developing countries from 2002. I find that values are a powerful and understudied explanation for variations in public opinion. Regardless of whether the question dealt with economic or cultural globalization, views about the free market, consumerism, and modern life had more explanatory power than evaluations of the economy or partisanship, and roughly the same explanatory powers as skill levels. These findings provide important insights into the sources of the globalization backlash and have important implications for how globalization should be both studied and theorized.

Political Research Quarterly, 2007

A prominent liberal explanation for why states join international organizations is to advance nor... more A prominent liberal explanation for why states join international organizations is to advance norms that such organizations represent. We examine the patterns of membership on the nowdefunct United Nations Human Rights Commission (now the UN Human Rights Council). In regions where democratic norms did not hold sway, members were elected to degrade human rights norms. Illiberal states sought seats in order to shield themselves or neighbors from censure by the Commission. As regions became more democratic, it became harder for states with poor records to be elected and easier for states with better human rights records to be elected.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

A dramatic change has taken place in the manner in which the IMF conducts its annual surveillance... more A dramatic change has taken place in the manner in which the IMF conducts its annual surveillance of member state economies. These annual consultations (known as Article IV consultations) were originally viewed as private matters. Starting in 1997, the IMF released summary information about a country's consultation on a voluntary basis. Recently, countries could choose to release the consultation team's report itself, which is prepared for discussion by the Fund's Executive Board. This raises the question of how and to what extent international markets respond to this transparency. This paper builds on the work of Fratzscher and Reynaud (2011) and to estimate the effects of Article IV data release on spreads on emerging market debt. This project is supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation (SES-0960422)

Social Science Quarterly, 2005

Objective. This article reinvestigates the ''catalytic'' effects of IMF programs on investment co... more Objective. This article reinvestigates the ''catalytic'' effects of IMF programs on investment controlling for the implementation of the program, allowing us to ascertain if capital markets respond to the mere announcement of a Fund program or its sustained positive implementation. Methods. Using a panel of data based on the experience of 106 developing countries entering Fund programs between 1979 and 1995, I employ both probit and tobit estimations to assess the effects of the announcement of a Fund program (and performance under it) on inflows of portfolio investment. Results. I find mixed evidence that good implementation serves to slow capital flight. I find consistently strong evidence that failed Fund programs produce portfolio flight. Conclusion. The findings suggest that we should think about the Fund's influence (both positive and negative) in light of how capital markets respond to its signals.

Review of International Political Economy, 2006

Empirical studies of public opinion regarding globalization have to date addressed only economic ... more Empirical studies of public opinion regarding globalization have to date addressed only economic integration. By way of comparison, we know much less about public opinion regarding cultural globalization. In addition, there has been little head-to-head testing of alternative explanations for public opinions in these areas. I contrast four arguments: skills, partisanship, economic evaluations, and beliefs about the free market, consumerism, and modern life, which I test using survey information taken from 17 developed and developing countries from 2002. I find that values are a powerful and understudied explanation for variations in public opinion. Regardless of whether the question dealt with economic or cultural globalization, views about the free market, consumerism, and modern life had more explanatory power than evaluations of the economy or partisanship, and roughly the same explanatory powers as skill levels. These findings provide important insights into the sources of the globalization backlash and have important implications for how globalization should be both studied and theorized.

Comparative Political Studies, 2006

The increasing use of mixed-member electoral systems has led to an explosion of research attempti... more The increasing use of mixed-member electoral systems has led to an explosion of research attempting to specify their effects. Yet there has been no work on the economic policy effects of such systems, even though this has been a significant subject of debate for scholars analyzing other electoral systems. An analysis of mixed-member system policy effects is problematic, given the wide variation in institutional rules among different systems. This article attempts to determine whether the institutional differences between mixed-member majoritarian (MMM) and mixed-member proportional (MMP) systems lead to differences in policy outputs. The political economy literature finds that government expenditures are positively correlated with electoral system proportionality. Our statistical analysis of government expenditures in 17 mixedmember systems between 1990 and 2000 shows that MMP systems, which are more proportional than MMM systems, are correlated with higher levels of government spending. Thus the MMM-MMP distinction produces significant policy differences.

Topics in Macroeconomics, 2006

Using levels of democratic development as a proxy for economic development, and using a 2SLS GMM ... more Using levels of democratic development as a proxy for economic development, and using a 2SLS GMM dynamic panel estimation methodology, we investigate the degree and direction of dissemination in the volatility of economic growth. Our findings indicate two essential points. First, there are differences along the democratic continuum of the ability of a country's economic growth volatility to affect other countries. Thus, an economic recession for example in one country, does not affect all countries equally across regime type. Second, growth volatility is not simply a North-South phenomenon, but a South-South phenomenon as well. In fact, the empirical patterns found here call into question the usefulness of relying on even these simple, dichotomous views of the world.

This essay summarizes the results of a larger study evaluating the effectiveness of OECD economic... more This essay summarizes the results of a larger study evaluating the effectiveness of OECD economic surveillance in 24 randomly selected countries. Because the OECD’s advice is only backed by peer pressure, we would expect little evidence that this advice leads countries to adopt policy reforms. Through evaluating subsamples of cases of countries under economic crisis, exploiting within-country variation, and drawing comparisons with more legalized international organizations, we conclude that surveillance can indeed lead to policy reform.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2011

A prominent liberal explanation for why states join international organizations is to advance nor... more A prominent liberal explanation for why states join international organizations is to advance norms that such organi-zations represent. The authors examine the patterns of membership on the now-defunct United Nations Human Rights Commission (now the UN Human Rights Council). In regions where democratic norms did not hold sway, members were elected to degrade human rights norms. Illiberal states sought seats to shield themselves or neighbors from cen-sure by the Commission. As regions became more democratic, it became harder for states with poor records to be elected and easier for states with better human rights records to be elected.

SAIS Review of International Affairs, 2014

The proposed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) now contain an innovative new goal focusing on ... more The proposed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) now contain an innovative new goal focusing on promoting peaceful societies and building effective and accountable institutions. While these goals are being negotiated, it is worth asking whether this goal can help shape debates about development or whether we will look back on this in fifteen years as empty rhetoric. We argue that this governance goal has transformative potential on a number of fronts, including shaping the UN system, fragile states, and developed countries; but generating significant results will require the development of concrete and measurable indicators for peace and governance.

The Review of International Organizations, 2009

Public opinions regarding the international economic organizations (IEOs; the IMF, World Bank, an... more Public opinions regarding the international economic organizations (IEOs; the IMF, World Bank, and WTO) are understudied. I contrast five lines of argument using a multi-country survey of developing countries, focusing on evaluations of the economy, skills, gender, and ideology and measures of involvement with the organizations themselves. At the individual level, respondents have negative views if they have negative views

International Studies Perspectives, 2013

Journal of International Relations and Development, 2006

International Monetary Fund (IMF) programmes are thought to function as a seal of approval to int... more International Monetary Fund (IMF) programmes are thought to function as a seal of approval to international markets although evidence suggests that Fund programmes do not attract capital inflows. Existing studies fail to address the effects of selection into IMF programmes, which raises questions about the robustness of the findings. Correcting for selection bias, I find that states under Fund programmes experience significant outflows of portfolio investment, which is a 'most likely case' for catalytic effects. The source of this capital flight is the 'medicine' (the Fund programme), not the 'disease' (the economic downturn necessitating the IMF programme). I argue that austerity deters portfolio inflows through its effects on future returns. These findings confirm previous studies and have broader implications for both the influence of IMF programmes and the politics of economic reform.

Rights Commission A prominent liberal explanation for why states join international organizations... more Rights Commission A prominent liberal explanation for why states join international organizations is to advance norms that such organizations represent. We examine the patterns of membership on the now-defunct United Nations Human Rights Commission (now the UN Human Rights Council). In regions where democratic norms did not hold sway, members were elected to degrade human rights norms. Illiberal states sought seats in order to shield themselves or neighbors from censure by the Commission. As regions became more democratic, it became harder for states with poor records to be elected and easier for states with better human rights records to be elected. 2

Recent criticisms of the International Monetary Fund focus on its inattention to the role of poli... more Recent criticisms of the International Monetary Fund focus on its inattention to the role of political institutions in shaping the ability of states to meet the conditions required in austerity programs. To what extent are these criticisms, which I term the information hypothesis, valid? As an initial pass at this question, I assess the Fund"s response to the approach of elections in countries under its programs. The conventional wisdom is that elections lead to program suspension, though this raises the question of whether the IMF responds proactively to the approach of elections by altering conditionality. The problem with using conventional discrete choice models to answer this question is that they force the variance across cases to be a constant. The variance surrounding program suspensions, however, is a proxy for the countries "margin of error" between economic performance and program suspension. As a result, models that force the variance to be constant across cases limit what we can learn about the Fund"s response to political shocks. Using a heteroskedastic probit model, I find that the approach of elections alters the variance surrounding program suspensions, providing another piece of evidence to counter the information hypothesis.

Rev Int Polit Econ, 2006

Empirical studies of public opinion regarding globalization have to date addressed only economic ... more Empirical studies of public opinion regarding globalization have to date addressed only economic integration. By way of comparison, we know much less about public opinion regarding cultural globalization. In addition, there has been little head-to-head testing of alternative explanations for public opinions in these areas. I contrast four arguments: skills, partisanship, economic evaluations, and beliefs about the free market, consumerism, and modern life, which I test using survey information taken from 17 developed and developing countries from 2002. I find that values are a powerful and understudied explanation for variations in public opinion. Regardless of whether the question dealt with economic or cultural globalization, views about the free market, consumerism, and modern life had more explanatory power than evaluations of the economy or partisanship, and roughly the same explanatory powers as skill levels. These findings provide important insights into the sources of the globalization backlash and have important implications for how globalization should be both studied and theorized.

Political Research Quarterly, 2007

A prominent liberal explanation for why states join international organizations is to advance nor... more A prominent liberal explanation for why states join international organizations is to advance norms that such organizations represent. We examine the patterns of membership on the nowdefunct United Nations Human Rights Commission (now the UN Human Rights Council). In regions where democratic norms did not hold sway, members were elected to degrade human rights norms. Illiberal states sought seats in order to shield themselves or neighbors from censure by the Commission. As regions became more democratic, it became harder for states with poor records to be elected and easier for states with better human rights records to be elected.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

A dramatic change has taken place in the manner in which the IMF conducts its annual surveillance... more A dramatic change has taken place in the manner in which the IMF conducts its annual surveillance of member state economies. These annual consultations (known as Article IV consultations) were originally viewed as private matters. Starting in 1997, the IMF released summary information about a country's consultation on a voluntary basis. Recently, countries could choose to release the consultation team's report itself, which is prepared for discussion by the Fund's Executive Board. This raises the question of how and to what extent international markets respond to this transparency. This paper builds on the work of Fratzscher and Reynaud (2011) and to estimate the effects of Article IV data release on spreads on emerging market debt. This project is supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation (SES-0960422)

Social Science Quarterly, 2005

Objective. This article reinvestigates the ''catalytic'' effects of IMF programs on investment co... more Objective. This article reinvestigates the ''catalytic'' effects of IMF programs on investment controlling for the implementation of the program, allowing us to ascertain if capital markets respond to the mere announcement of a Fund program or its sustained positive implementation. Methods. Using a panel of data based on the experience of 106 developing countries entering Fund programs between 1979 and 1995, I employ both probit and tobit estimations to assess the effects of the announcement of a Fund program (and performance under it) on inflows of portfolio investment. Results. I find mixed evidence that good implementation serves to slow capital flight. I find consistently strong evidence that failed Fund programs produce portfolio flight. Conclusion. The findings suggest that we should think about the Fund's influence (both positive and negative) in light of how capital markets respond to its signals.

Review of International Political Economy, 2006

Empirical studies of public opinion regarding globalization have to date addressed only economic ... more Empirical studies of public opinion regarding globalization have to date addressed only economic integration. By way of comparison, we know much less about public opinion regarding cultural globalization. In addition, there has been little head-to-head testing of alternative explanations for public opinions in these areas. I contrast four arguments: skills, partisanship, economic evaluations, and beliefs about the free market, consumerism, and modern life, which I test using survey information taken from 17 developed and developing countries from 2002. I find that values are a powerful and understudied explanation for variations in public opinion. Regardless of whether the question dealt with economic or cultural globalization, views about the free market, consumerism, and modern life had more explanatory power than evaluations of the economy or partisanship, and roughly the same explanatory powers as skill levels. These findings provide important insights into the sources of the globalization backlash and have important implications for how globalization should be both studied and theorized.

Comparative Political Studies, 2006

The increasing use of mixed-member electoral systems has led to an explosion of research attempti... more The increasing use of mixed-member electoral systems has led to an explosion of research attempting to specify their effects. Yet there has been no work on the economic policy effects of such systems, even though this has been a significant subject of debate for scholars analyzing other electoral systems. An analysis of mixed-member system policy effects is problematic, given the wide variation in institutional rules among different systems. This article attempts to determine whether the institutional differences between mixed-member majoritarian (MMM) and mixed-member proportional (MMP) systems lead to differences in policy outputs. The political economy literature finds that government expenditures are positively correlated with electoral system proportionality. Our statistical analysis of government expenditures in 17 mixedmember systems between 1990 and 2000 shows that MMP systems, which are more proportional than MMM systems, are correlated with higher levels of government spending. Thus the MMM-MMP distinction produces significant policy differences.

The IMF, the WTO, and the Politics of Economic Surveillance, 2018

Introduction: Both the IMF and the WTO practice surveillance of member country economies. Surveil... more Introduction: Both the IMF and the WTO practice surveillance of member country economies. Surveillance is defined in this book as the act of policy monitoring, and it was created to ensure that governments adopt economic policies that support economic growth and economic openness. For both international organizations, the role of surveillance has been understudied. Lacking a better understanding of how surveillance works means that there is no basis for proposing reforms aimed at making it more effective. Importantly, each of these organizations practice surveillance differently. This raises the question of whether differences in the outcomes of surveillance are attributable to these differences in design. Addressing both of these questions is the central focus of the book. This chapter discusses why understanding how the IMF and WTO practice it is important for both theory and policy, and outlines the main arguments in the book. It distinguishes between the direct and indirect effects of surveillance, and focuses on how differences in contexts account for differences in effects. Subsequent empirical tests focus on the effects of surveillance on policymakers and domestic political debates, the media, financial markets, and potential trade disputes.