T. William Lester | San Jose State University (original) (raw)

Papers by T. William Lester

Carolina Digital Repository (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill), Dec 31, 2022

Interest has focused on quantifying the size and scope of environmental markets, particularly tho... more Interest has focused on quantifying the size and scope of environmental markets, particularly those that offset ecosystem impacts or restore natural infrastructure to improve habitat or promote clean air and water. In this paper, we focus on the US wetland and stream compensatory mitigation market, asking: what types of firms make up the mitigation "industry"? What are the economic impacts-i.e., the "size"-of the mitigation industry? How has this industry changed over time? We present the results of a national survey of mitigation firms and construct an input-output model of the industry's economic impacts and employment. We also develop a comparative, 2014 model of the industry using data from a previous study of the broader, ecological restoration economy. Our findings suggest that the (2019, pre-COVID) mitigation industry collects annual revenues (direct economic impacts) in excess of 3.5billion,which,alongwithadditionalindirect(supplychain)andinduced(spillover)economicimpacts,combinetoover3.5 billion, which, along with additional indirect (supply chain) and induced (spillover) economic impacts, combine to over 3.5billion,which,alongwithadditionalindirect(supplychain)andinduced(spillover)economicimpacts,combinetoover9.6 billion in total output and support over 53,000 total jobs. We estimate 2014-2019 growth of~35.2 percent in revenues,~32.6 percent in total economic impacts, and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.25%. This places the mitigation industry within the range of other, well-established industries within the technical services sector. We suggest establishing North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes specifically for ecological restoration and mitigation firms, an essential step in generating accurate and consistent employment estimates in the future, particularly at sub-national geographic scales.

PLOS ONE, 2015

Domestic public debate continues over the economic impacts of environmental regulations that requ... more Domestic public debate continues over the economic impacts of environmental regulations that require environmental restoration. This debate has occurred in the absence of broadscale empirical research on economic output and employment resulting from environmental restoration, restoration-related conservation, and mitigation actionsthe activities that are part of what we term the "restoration economy." In this article, we provide a high-level accounting of the size and scope of the restoration economy in terms of employment, value added, and overall economic output on a national scale. We conducted a national survey of businesses that participate in restoration work in order to estimate the total sales and number of jobs directly associated with the restoration economy, and to provide a profile of this nascent sector in terms of type of restoration work, industrial classification, workforce needs, and growth potential. We use survey results as inputs into a national input-output model (IMPLAN 3.1) in order to estimate the indirect and induced economic impacts of restoration activities. Based on this analysis we conclude that the domestic ecological restoration sector directly employs~126,000 workers and generates~$9.5 billion in economic output (sales) annually. This activity supports an additional 95,000 jobs and $15 billion in economic output through indirect (business-to-business) linkages and increased household spending.

The use of incentive packages has intensified as local governments compete for new plants and cor... more The use of incentive packages has intensified as local governments compete for new plants and corporate relocations, and as private firms increasingly demand a deal. While incentives promise jobs and tax revenue, scholars and practitioners criticize their high cost and limited accountability. Through a comparison of matched establishments, this paper explores how governmental incentive-granting strategy impacts incentive performance. We examine the overall impact of incentives and whether incentives granted to smaller firms perform better. Using economic development budget data, we also assess the state's overall approach to economic development to determine which strategies are prioritized through funding. By showing that incentivized firms fail to create more jobs than matched controls, our analysis casts doubt on claims that "but for" incentives job creation would not occur. Still, our findings suggest that states are smarter in their incentive use when they strike a balance between recruiting industry and supporting "homegrown" businesses and technology.

Planning Theory, Aug 24, 2012

Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Jan 27, 2010

This article examines the ability of regional labour markets to rebound by growing the middle cla... more This article examines the ability of regional labour markets to rebound by growing the middle class or increasing wages. Using data on US metros, we identify regions that are transformative in terms of achieving a new equilibrium or reversing their path dependency. We then use discriminant analysis to identify the factors behind this resiliency. Regional resilience is rare, and changing a region's path is easier than achieving a new equilibrium. Among the most important factors behind regional transformation are the ability to attract immigrants, retain manufacturing, and innovate a high-tech economy. The diversity of outcomes suggests that a simple strong versus weak market dichotomy is insufficient to characterize regional resiliency, and a wide array of policies will be necessary.

Social Science Research Network, 2015

In the years since Michael Porter's paper about the potential competitiveness of inner cities the... more In the years since Michael Porter's paper about the potential competitiveness of inner cities there has been growing evidence of a residential resurgence in urban neighborhoods. Yet, there is less evidence on the competitiveness of inner cities for employment. We document the trends in net employment growth and fi nd that inner cities gained over 1.8 million jobs between 2002 and 2011 at a rate comparable to suburban areas. We also fi nd a signifi cant number of inner cities are competitive over this period-increasing their share of metropolitan employment in 144 out of 281 MSAs. We also describe the pattern of job growth within the inner city, fi nding that tracts that grew faster tended to be closer to downtown, with access to transit, and adjacent to areas with higher population growth. However, tracts with higher poverty rates experienced less job growth, indicating that barriers still exist in the inner city.

Social Science Research Network, 2012

State incentive granting for the purpose of firm retention or recruitment remains highly controve... more State incentive granting for the purpose of firm retention or recruitment remains highly controversial and is often portrayed as antithetical to long-range economic development planning. This paper uses quasi-experimental methods to measure the impact of state-level economic development incentives on employment growth at the establishment level in North Carolina. Using North Carolina's rich history of strategic planning and sector-based economic development as a backdrop, we develop a theory of sectoral "mediation." This enables us to compare the effectiveness of incentives offered in mediated and nonmediated industries and show that when incentives are coupled with sectoral economic development efforts they generate substantially stronger employment effects than at establishments with limited sector-based institutional support.

Social Science Research Network, 2007

We use policy discontinuities at state borders to identify the effects of minimum wages on earnin... more We use policy discontinuities at state borders to identify the effects of minimum wages on earnings and employment in restaurants and other low-wage sectors. Our approach generalizes the case study method by considering all local differences in minimum wage policies between 1990 and 2006. We compare all contiguous county-pairs in the United States that straddle a state border and find no adverse employment effects. We show that traditional approaches that do not account for local economic conditions tend to produce spurious negative effects due to spatial heterogeneities in employment trends that are unrelated to minimum wage policies. Our findings are robust to allowing for long-term effects of minimum wage changes.

PLOS ONE

Interest has focused on quantifying the size and scope of environmental markets, particularly tho... more Interest has focused on quantifying the size and scope of environmental markets, particularly those that offset ecosystem impacts or restore natural infrastructure to improve habitat or promote clean air and water. In this paper, we focus on the US wetland and stream compensatory mitigation market, asking: what types of firms make up the mitigation “industry”? What are the economic impacts–i.e., the “size”–of the mitigation industry? How has this industry changed over time? We present the results of a national survey of mitigation firms and construct an input-output model of the industry’s economic impacts and employment. We also develop a comparative, 2014 model of the industry using data from a previous study of the broader, ecological restoration economy. Our findings suggest that the (2019, pre-COVID) mitigation industry collects annual revenues (direct economic impacts) in excess of $3.5 billion, which, along with additional indirect (supply chain) and induced (spillover) econo...

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2011

We measure labor market frictions using a strategy that bridges design-based and structural appro... more We measure labor market frictions using a strategy that bridges design-based and structural approaches: estimating an equilibrium search model using reduced-form minimum wage elasticities identified from border discontinuities and fitted with Bayesian and LIML methods. We begin by providing the first test of U.S. minimum wage effects on labor market flows and find negative effects on employment flows, but not levels. Separations and accessions fall among restaurants and teens, especially those with low tenure. Our estimated parameters of a search model with wage posting and heterogeneous workers and firms imply that frictions help explain minimum wage effects.

The use of incentive packages has intensified as local governments compete for new plants and cor... more The use of incentive packages has intensified as local governments compete for new plants and corporate relocations, and as private firms increasingly demand a deal. While incentives promise jobs and tax revenue, scholars and practitioners criticize their high cost and limited accountability. Through a comparison of matched establishments, this paper explores how governmental incentive-granting strategy impacts incentive performance. We examine the overall impact of incentives and whether incentives granted to smaller firms perform better. Using economic development budget data, we also assess the state's overall approach to economic development to determine which strategies are prioritized through funding. By showing that incentivized firms fail to create more jobs than matched controls, our analysis casts doubt on claims that "but for" incentives job creation would not occur. Still, our findings suggest that states are smarter in their incentive use when they strike a balance between recruiting industry and supporting "homegrown" businesses and technology.

Journal of Labor Economics, 2016

We provide the first estimates of the effects of minimum wages on employment flows in the U.S. la... more We provide the first estimates of the effects of minimum wages on employment flows in the U.S. labor market, identifying the impact using policy discontinuities at state borders. We find that minimum wages have a sizable negative effect on employment flows but not stocks: separations and accessions fall among affected workers. We interpret our findings using a job-ladder model, in which minimum wage increases can reduce job-to-job transitions. We find that a standard calibration of the model generates predicted relative magnitudes of the employment stock and flow elasticities that are very close to our reduced-form estimates.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2007

This paper estimates the effect of Wal-Mart expansion on wages, benefits, and skill-composition o... more This paper estimates the effect of Wal-Mart expansion on wages, benefits, and skill-composition of retail workers during the 1990s. We exploit the spatial pattern of Wal-Mart diffusion, radiating outward from the original store in Benton county, Arkansas, to control for potential endogeneity in store openings using both instrumental variable and control function approaches. Estimates from state and county level data suggest that store openings reduced both the average earnings and health benefits of retail workers. At the county level, a new Wal-Mart is found to reduce retail earnings, on average, by .5 to .9 percent. Moreover, we find that changes in skill-composition explain only a small part of compensation reduction, indicating that the decline in retail wages reflect a reduction in labor market rents.

PloS one, 2015

Domestic public debate continues over the economic impacts of environmental regulations that requ... more Domestic public debate continues over the economic impacts of environmental regulations that require environmental restoration. This debate has occurred in the absence of broad-scale empirical research on economic output and employment resulting from environmental restoration, restoration-related conservation, and mitigation actions - the activities that are part of what we term the "restoration economy." In this article, we provide a high-level accounting of the size and scope of the restoration economy in terms of employment, value added, and overall economic output on a national scale. We conducted a national survey of businesses that participate in restoration work in order to estimate the total sales and number of jobs directly associated with the restoration economy, and to provide a profile of this nascent sector in terms of type of restoration work, industrial classification, workforce needs, and growth potential. We use survey results as inputs into a national inp...

Journal of Urban Affairs, 2016

This article explores variation in the economic integration of immigrants across U.S. metropolita... more This article explores variation in the economic integration of immigrants across U.S. metropolitan areas and tests a basic hypothesis that greater economic integration promotes regional resilience. Here we construct two quantitative indexes of occupational diversity as primary indicators of economic integration and develop a conceptual framework of social, economic, and spatial factors that are likely to shape occupational diversity at the regional scale. We conduct an exploratory quantitative analysis in two steps. First, we model labor market diversity in 2000 with metro level data drawn primarily from the Building Resilient Regions (BRR) database. Next, we use the occupational diversity indexes as dependent variables and assess whether greater occupational diversity among immigrants led to greater economic resilience between 2000 and 2010, as measured by changes in unemployment rate and real wage growth. We find some evidence that immigrants in regions that have more broadly integrated immigrants (across occupations) were relatively more resilient in the face of the economic shocks of the Great Recession. As the economy continues to recover slowly from the Great Recession, the flow of new immigrants into the United States has slowed significantly. Two decades earlier, millions of new workers and their families migrated to and settled in a variety of U.S. regions. This period of migration is markedly different in three key ways from other periods: (1) large-scale immigration from Latin America (particularly Mexico) and Asia, (2) a continual replenishment of immigrants from the same sending countries, and (3) migration to "new destinations" such as regions in the Southeast and new types of communities-suburbs and rural towns (Waters & Jiménez, 2005). Thus, it is critical that policymakers understand how the U.S. economy performed in successfully integrating new migrants into the labor market and the degree to which these families are able to move up the economic ladder. Since the pattern of immigration was uneven across regions and also varied by country of origin and skill level, we might also expect that there is wide geographic variation in the level of economic integration of immigrants. Uneven patterns of economic integration may also be driven by factors relating to (1) human capital, (2) the context of reception, (3) migration to ethnic enclaves, (4) spatial mismatch between where immigrants locate (e.g., concentrated poor neighborhoods in the central city) and where jobs are located (e.g., suburbs), and (5) the increasingly divergent patterns of economic development across regions, as some "innovative regions" move far ahead of declining metropolitans areas in wealth generation and economic opportunity (Moretti, 2012) .

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2015

In the years since Michael Porter's paper about the potential competitiveness of inner cities the... more In the years since Michael Porter's paper about the potential competitiveness of inner cities there has been growing evidence of a residential resurgence in urban neighborhoods. Yet, there is less evidence on the competitiveness of inner cities for employment. We document the trends in net employment growth and fi nd that inner cities gained over 1.8 million jobs between 2002 and 2011 at a rate comparable to suburban areas. We also fi nd a signifi cant number of inner cities are competitive over this period-increasing their share of metropolitan employment in 144 out of 281 MSAs. We also describe the pattern of job growth within the inner city, fi nding that tracts that grew faster tended to be closer to downtown, with access to transit, and adjacent to areas with higher population growth. However, tracts with higher poverty rates experienced less job growth, indicating that barriers still exist in the inner city.

Restoration Ecology, 2015

For decades, industry groups and many media outlets have propagated the notion that environmental... more For decades, industry groups and many media outlets have propagated the notion that environmental protection is bad for business. However, missing from this public debate has been a detailed accounting of the U.S. economic output and employment that are created through conservation, restoration, and mitigation actions, which we call the “Restoration Economy.” In this paper, we review related literature, including 14 local and state‐level case studies of privately funded environmental restoration projects. We also review federal and state government programs that fund restoration throughout the United States, revealing the complex nature of this sector. We find growing evidence that the restoration industry not only protects public environmental goods but also contributes to national economic growth and employment, supporting as many as 33 jobs per $1 million invested, with an employment multiplier of between 1.48 and 3.8 (the number of jobs supported by every restoration job) and an...

Journal of the American Planning Association, 2013

The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and should be independently verified with p... more The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and should be independently verified with primary sources of information. Taylor and Francis shall not be liable for any losses, actions, claims, proceedings, demands, costs, expenses, damages, and other liabilities whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with, in relation to or arising out of the use of the Content. This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply, or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden.

Urban Studies, 2013

Chicago uses tax increment financing (TIF) to promote economic development to a greater extent th... more Chicago uses tax increment financing (TIF) to promote economic development to a greater extent than any other large American city. This paper conducts a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of Chicago’s TIF programme in creating economic opportunities and catalysing real estate investments at the neighbourhood scale. This paper uses a unique panel dataset at the block-group level to analyse the impact of TIF designation and investments on employment change, business creation and building permit activity. After controlling for potential selection bias in TIF assignment, this paper shows that TIF ultimately fails the ‘but-for’ test and shows no evidence of increasing tangible economic development benefits for local residents. Implications for policy are considered.

Review of Economics and Statistics, 2010

We use policy discontinuities at state borders to identify the effects of minimum wages on earnin... more We use policy discontinuities at state borders to identify the effects of minimum wages on earnings and employment in restaurants and other low-wage sectors. Our approach generalizes the case study method by considering all local differences in minimum wage policies between 1990 and 2006. We compare all contiguous county-pairs in the United States that straddle a state border and find no adverse employment effects. We show that traditional approaches that do not account for local economic conditions tend to produce spurious negative effects due to spatial heterogeneities in employment trends that are unrelated to minimum wage policies. Our findings are robust to allowing for long-term effects of minimum wage changes.

Carolina Digital Repository (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill), Dec 31, 2022

Interest has focused on quantifying the size and scope of environmental markets, particularly tho... more Interest has focused on quantifying the size and scope of environmental markets, particularly those that offset ecosystem impacts or restore natural infrastructure to improve habitat or promote clean air and water. In this paper, we focus on the US wetland and stream compensatory mitigation market, asking: what types of firms make up the mitigation "industry"? What are the economic impacts-i.e., the "size"-of the mitigation industry? How has this industry changed over time? We present the results of a national survey of mitigation firms and construct an input-output model of the industry's economic impacts and employment. We also develop a comparative, 2014 model of the industry using data from a previous study of the broader, ecological restoration economy. Our findings suggest that the (2019, pre-COVID) mitigation industry collects annual revenues (direct economic impacts) in excess of 3.5billion,which,alongwithadditionalindirect(supplychain)andinduced(spillover)economicimpacts,combinetoover3.5 billion, which, along with additional indirect (supply chain) and induced (spillover) economic impacts, combine to over 3.5billion,which,alongwithadditionalindirect(supplychain)andinduced(spillover)economicimpacts,combinetoover9.6 billion in total output and support over 53,000 total jobs. We estimate 2014-2019 growth of~35.2 percent in revenues,~32.6 percent in total economic impacts, and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.25%. This places the mitigation industry within the range of other, well-established industries within the technical services sector. We suggest establishing North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) codes specifically for ecological restoration and mitigation firms, an essential step in generating accurate and consistent employment estimates in the future, particularly at sub-national geographic scales.

PLOS ONE, 2015

Domestic public debate continues over the economic impacts of environmental regulations that requ... more Domestic public debate continues over the economic impacts of environmental regulations that require environmental restoration. This debate has occurred in the absence of broadscale empirical research on economic output and employment resulting from environmental restoration, restoration-related conservation, and mitigation actionsthe activities that are part of what we term the "restoration economy." In this article, we provide a high-level accounting of the size and scope of the restoration economy in terms of employment, value added, and overall economic output on a national scale. We conducted a national survey of businesses that participate in restoration work in order to estimate the total sales and number of jobs directly associated with the restoration economy, and to provide a profile of this nascent sector in terms of type of restoration work, industrial classification, workforce needs, and growth potential. We use survey results as inputs into a national input-output model (IMPLAN 3.1) in order to estimate the indirect and induced economic impacts of restoration activities. Based on this analysis we conclude that the domestic ecological restoration sector directly employs~126,000 workers and generates~$9.5 billion in economic output (sales) annually. This activity supports an additional 95,000 jobs and $15 billion in economic output through indirect (business-to-business) linkages and increased household spending.

The use of incentive packages has intensified as local governments compete for new plants and cor... more The use of incentive packages has intensified as local governments compete for new plants and corporate relocations, and as private firms increasingly demand a deal. While incentives promise jobs and tax revenue, scholars and practitioners criticize their high cost and limited accountability. Through a comparison of matched establishments, this paper explores how governmental incentive-granting strategy impacts incentive performance. We examine the overall impact of incentives and whether incentives granted to smaller firms perform better. Using economic development budget data, we also assess the state's overall approach to economic development to determine which strategies are prioritized through funding. By showing that incentivized firms fail to create more jobs than matched controls, our analysis casts doubt on claims that "but for" incentives job creation would not occur. Still, our findings suggest that states are smarter in their incentive use when they strike a balance between recruiting industry and supporting "homegrown" businesses and technology.

Planning Theory, Aug 24, 2012

Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Jan 27, 2010

This article examines the ability of regional labour markets to rebound by growing the middle cla... more This article examines the ability of regional labour markets to rebound by growing the middle class or increasing wages. Using data on US metros, we identify regions that are transformative in terms of achieving a new equilibrium or reversing their path dependency. We then use discriminant analysis to identify the factors behind this resiliency. Regional resilience is rare, and changing a region's path is easier than achieving a new equilibrium. Among the most important factors behind regional transformation are the ability to attract immigrants, retain manufacturing, and innovate a high-tech economy. The diversity of outcomes suggests that a simple strong versus weak market dichotomy is insufficient to characterize regional resiliency, and a wide array of policies will be necessary.

Social Science Research Network, 2015

In the years since Michael Porter's paper about the potential competitiveness of inner cities the... more In the years since Michael Porter's paper about the potential competitiveness of inner cities there has been growing evidence of a residential resurgence in urban neighborhoods. Yet, there is less evidence on the competitiveness of inner cities for employment. We document the trends in net employment growth and fi nd that inner cities gained over 1.8 million jobs between 2002 and 2011 at a rate comparable to suburban areas. We also fi nd a signifi cant number of inner cities are competitive over this period-increasing their share of metropolitan employment in 144 out of 281 MSAs. We also describe the pattern of job growth within the inner city, fi nding that tracts that grew faster tended to be closer to downtown, with access to transit, and adjacent to areas with higher population growth. However, tracts with higher poverty rates experienced less job growth, indicating that barriers still exist in the inner city.

Social Science Research Network, 2012

State incentive granting for the purpose of firm retention or recruitment remains highly controve... more State incentive granting for the purpose of firm retention or recruitment remains highly controversial and is often portrayed as antithetical to long-range economic development planning. This paper uses quasi-experimental methods to measure the impact of state-level economic development incentives on employment growth at the establishment level in North Carolina. Using North Carolina's rich history of strategic planning and sector-based economic development as a backdrop, we develop a theory of sectoral "mediation." This enables us to compare the effectiveness of incentives offered in mediated and nonmediated industries and show that when incentives are coupled with sectoral economic development efforts they generate substantially stronger employment effects than at establishments with limited sector-based institutional support.

Social Science Research Network, 2007

We use policy discontinuities at state borders to identify the effects of minimum wages on earnin... more We use policy discontinuities at state borders to identify the effects of minimum wages on earnings and employment in restaurants and other low-wage sectors. Our approach generalizes the case study method by considering all local differences in minimum wage policies between 1990 and 2006. We compare all contiguous county-pairs in the United States that straddle a state border and find no adverse employment effects. We show that traditional approaches that do not account for local economic conditions tend to produce spurious negative effects due to spatial heterogeneities in employment trends that are unrelated to minimum wage policies. Our findings are robust to allowing for long-term effects of minimum wage changes.

PLOS ONE

Interest has focused on quantifying the size and scope of environmental markets, particularly tho... more Interest has focused on quantifying the size and scope of environmental markets, particularly those that offset ecosystem impacts or restore natural infrastructure to improve habitat or promote clean air and water. In this paper, we focus on the US wetland and stream compensatory mitigation market, asking: what types of firms make up the mitigation “industry”? What are the economic impacts–i.e., the “size”–of the mitigation industry? How has this industry changed over time? We present the results of a national survey of mitigation firms and construct an input-output model of the industry’s economic impacts and employment. We also develop a comparative, 2014 model of the industry using data from a previous study of the broader, ecological restoration economy. Our findings suggest that the (2019, pre-COVID) mitigation industry collects annual revenues (direct economic impacts) in excess of $3.5 billion, which, along with additional indirect (supply chain) and induced (spillover) econo...

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2011

We measure labor market frictions using a strategy that bridges design-based and structural appro... more We measure labor market frictions using a strategy that bridges design-based and structural approaches: estimating an equilibrium search model using reduced-form minimum wage elasticities identified from border discontinuities and fitted with Bayesian and LIML methods. We begin by providing the first test of U.S. minimum wage effects on labor market flows and find negative effects on employment flows, but not levels. Separations and accessions fall among restaurants and teens, especially those with low tenure. Our estimated parameters of a search model with wage posting and heterogeneous workers and firms imply that frictions help explain minimum wage effects.

The use of incentive packages has intensified as local governments compete for new plants and cor... more The use of incentive packages has intensified as local governments compete for new plants and corporate relocations, and as private firms increasingly demand a deal. While incentives promise jobs and tax revenue, scholars and practitioners criticize their high cost and limited accountability. Through a comparison of matched establishments, this paper explores how governmental incentive-granting strategy impacts incentive performance. We examine the overall impact of incentives and whether incentives granted to smaller firms perform better. Using economic development budget data, we also assess the state's overall approach to economic development to determine which strategies are prioritized through funding. By showing that incentivized firms fail to create more jobs than matched controls, our analysis casts doubt on claims that "but for" incentives job creation would not occur. Still, our findings suggest that states are smarter in their incentive use when they strike a balance between recruiting industry and supporting "homegrown" businesses and technology.

Journal of Labor Economics, 2016

We provide the first estimates of the effects of minimum wages on employment flows in the U.S. la... more We provide the first estimates of the effects of minimum wages on employment flows in the U.S. labor market, identifying the impact using policy discontinuities at state borders. We find that minimum wages have a sizable negative effect on employment flows but not stocks: separations and accessions fall among affected workers. We interpret our findings using a job-ladder model, in which minimum wage increases can reduce job-to-job transitions. We find that a standard calibration of the model generates predicted relative magnitudes of the employment stock and flow elasticities that are very close to our reduced-form estimates.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2007

This paper estimates the effect of Wal-Mart expansion on wages, benefits, and skill-composition o... more This paper estimates the effect of Wal-Mart expansion on wages, benefits, and skill-composition of retail workers during the 1990s. We exploit the spatial pattern of Wal-Mart diffusion, radiating outward from the original store in Benton county, Arkansas, to control for potential endogeneity in store openings using both instrumental variable and control function approaches. Estimates from state and county level data suggest that store openings reduced both the average earnings and health benefits of retail workers. At the county level, a new Wal-Mart is found to reduce retail earnings, on average, by .5 to .9 percent. Moreover, we find that changes in skill-composition explain only a small part of compensation reduction, indicating that the decline in retail wages reflect a reduction in labor market rents.

PloS one, 2015

Domestic public debate continues over the economic impacts of environmental regulations that requ... more Domestic public debate continues over the economic impacts of environmental regulations that require environmental restoration. This debate has occurred in the absence of broad-scale empirical research on economic output and employment resulting from environmental restoration, restoration-related conservation, and mitigation actions - the activities that are part of what we term the "restoration economy." In this article, we provide a high-level accounting of the size and scope of the restoration economy in terms of employment, value added, and overall economic output on a national scale. We conducted a national survey of businesses that participate in restoration work in order to estimate the total sales and number of jobs directly associated with the restoration economy, and to provide a profile of this nascent sector in terms of type of restoration work, industrial classification, workforce needs, and growth potential. We use survey results as inputs into a national inp...

Journal of Urban Affairs, 2016

This article explores variation in the economic integration of immigrants across U.S. metropolita... more This article explores variation in the economic integration of immigrants across U.S. metropolitan areas and tests a basic hypothesis that greater economic integration promotes regional resilience. Here we construct two quantitative indexes of occupational diversity as primary indicators of economic integration and develop a conceptual framework of social, economic, and spatial factors that are likely to shape occupational diversity at the regional scale. We conduct an exploratory quantitative analysis in two steps. First, we model labor market diversity in 2000 with metro level data drawn primarily from the Building Resilient Regions (BRR) database. Next, we use the occupational diversity indexes as dependent variables and assess whether greater occupational diversity among immigrants led to greater economic resilience between 2000 and 2010, as measured by changes in unemployment rate and real wage growth. We find some evidence that immigrants in regions that have more broadly integrated immigrants (across occupations) were relatively more resilient in the face of the economic shocks of the Great Recession. As the economy continues to recover slowly from the Great Recession, the flow of new immigrants into the United States has slowed significantly. Two decades earlier, millions of new workers and their families migrated to and settled in a variety of U.S. regions. This period of migration is markedly different in three key ways from other periods: (1) large-scale immigration from Latin America (particularly Mexico) and Asia, (2) a continual replenishment of immigrants from the same sending countries, and (3) migration to "new destinations" such as regions in the Southeast and new types of communities-suburbs and rural towns (Waters & Jiménez, 2005). Thus, it is critical that policymakers understand how the U.S. economy performed in successfully integrating new migrants into the labor market and the degree to which these families are able to move up the economic ladder. Since the pattern of immigration was uneven across regions and also varied by country of origin and skill level, we might also expect that there is wide geographic variation in the level of economic integration of immigrants. Uneven patterns of economic integration may also be driven by factors relating to (1) human capital, (2) the context of reception, (3) migration to ethnic enclaves, (4) spatial mismatch between where immigrants locate (e.g., concentrated poor neighborhoods in the central city) and where jobs are located (e.g., suburbs), and (5) the increasingly divergent patterns of economic development across regions, as some "innovative regions" move far ahead of declining metropolitans areas in wealth generation and economic opportunity (Moretti, 2012) .

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2015

In the years since Michael Porter's paper about the potential competitiveness of inner cities the... more In the years since Michael Porter's paper about the potential competitiveness of inner cities there has been growing evidence of a residential resurgence in urban neighborhoods. Yet, there is less evidence on the competitiveness of inner cities for employment. We document the trends in net employment growth and fi nd that inner cities gained over 1.8 million jobs between 2002 and 2011 at a rate comparable to suburban areas. We also fi nd a signifi cant number of inner cities are competitive over this period-increasing their share of metropolitan employment in 144 out of 281 MSAs. We also describe the pattern of job growth within the inner city, fi nding that tracts that grew faster tended to be closer to downtown, with access to transit, and adjacent to areas with higher population growth. However, tracts with higher poverty rates experienced less job growth, indicating that barriers still exist in the inner city.

Restoration Ecology, 2015

For decades, industry groups and many media outlets have propagated the notion that environmental... more For decades, industry groups and many media outlets have propagated the notion that environmental protection is bad for business. However, missing from this public debate has been a detailed accounting of the U.S. economic output and employment that are created through conservation, restoration, and mitigation actions, which we call the “Restoration Economy.” In this paper, we review related literature, including 14 local and state‐level case studies of privately funded environmental restoration projects. We also review federal and state government programs that fund restoration throughout the United States, revealing the complex nature of this sector. We find growing evidence that the restoration industry not only protects public environmental goods but also contributes to national economic growth and employment, supporting as many as 33 jobs per $1 million invested, with an employment multiplier of between 1.48 and 3.8 (the number of jobs supported by every restoration job) and an...

Journal of the American Planning Association, 2013

The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and should be independently verified with p... more The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and should be independently verified with primary sources of information. Taylor and Francis shall not be liable for any losses, actions, claims, proceedings, demands, costs, expenses, damages, and other liabilities whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with, in relation to or arising out of the use of the Content. This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply, or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden.

Urban Studies, 2013

Chicago uses tax increment financing (TIF) to promote economic development to a greater extent th... more Chicago uses tax increment financing (TIF) to promote economic development to a greater extent than any other large American city. This paper conducts a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of Chicago’s TIF programme in creating economic opportunities and catalysing real estate investments at the neighbourhood scale. This paper uses a unique panel dataset at the block-group level to analyse the impact of TIF designation and investments on employment change, business creation and building permit activity. After controlling for potential selection bias in TIF assignment, this paper shows that TIF ultimately fails the ‘but-for’ test and shows no evidence of increasing tangible economic development benefits for local residents. Implications for policy are considered.

Review of Economics and Statistics, 2010

We use policy discontinuities at state borders to identify the effects of minimum wages on earnin... more We use policy discontinuities at state borders to identify the effects of minimum wages on earnings and employment in restaurants and other low-wage sectors. Our approach generalizes the case study method by considering all local differences in minimum wage policies between 1990 and 2006. We compare all contiguous county-pairs in the United States that straddle a state border and find no adverse employment effects. We show that traditional approaches that do not account for local economic conditions tend to produce spurious negative effects due to spatial heterogeneities in employment trends that are unrelated to minimum wage policies. Our findings are robust to allowing for long-term effects of minimum wage changes.