Nathan S. Balke | Southern Methodist University (original) (raw)

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Papers by Nathan S. Balke

Research paper thumbnail of In No Uncertain Terms: The Effect of Uncertainty on Credit Frictions and Monetary Policy

Globalization Institute Working Paper No. 317r2, 2021

We examine the interaction of uncertainty and credit frictions in a New Keynesian framework. The ... more We examine the interaction of uncertainty and credit frictions in a New Keynesian framework. The model considers credit frictions arising from costly-state verification in the provision of loans to fund the acquisition of capital by entrepreneurs and includes three types of time-varying stochastic volatility shocks related to monetary policy uncertainty, financial risk (micro-uncertainty), and macro-uncertainty. Key parameters are estimated by the Simulated Method of Moments using U.S. data from 1984:Q1 until 2014:Q4. We find: 1. Micro-uncertainty has first-order effects that are significantly larger than the effects of macro-uncertainty and monetary policy uncertainty. 2. Poor credit conditions exacerbate the economic drag from micro-uncertainty shocks, amplify the effects of monetary policy shocks, and mitigate the impact of TFP shocks. 3. A degree of asymmetry and non-scalability appears in response to monetary policy shocks, dependent on the degree of nominal rigidities and init...

Research paper thumbnail of Recessions and recoveries

Economic and Financial Policy Review, Feb 1, 1993

Research paper thumbnail of Recessions and recoveries in real business cycle models: do real business cycle models generate cyclical behavior?

Research paper thumbnail of What's the Beige Book?

Research paper thumbnail of Large shocks, small shocks, and economic fluctuations: outliers in macroeconomic times series

Research paper thumbnail of The Estimation of Prewar GNP: Methodology and New Evidence

Research paper thumbnail of A Consumption-Based Decomposition of Stock Price Movements

Research paper thumbnail of The Contributions of Economic Fundamentals to Movements in Exchange Rates

Forthcoming Journal of International Economics, 2012

Research paper thumbnail of Supply shocks and the distribution of price changes

Economic and Financial Policy Review, 1996

Research paper thumbnail of An equilibrium analysis of relative price changes and aggregate inflation

Research paper thumbnail of Appendix B: Historical Data

Research paper thumbnail of Oil price shocks and the U.S. economy: where does the asymmetry originate?(Statistical Data Included)

The Energy Journal, Jun 1, 2002

... This paper uses a near vector autoregressive model of the US economy to examine where the asy... more ... This paper uses a near vector autoregressive model of the US economy to examine where the asymmetry might originate. ... 2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available. 3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available. Publisher Info. ...

Research paper thumbnail of How well does the Beige Book reflect economic activity? Evaluating qualitative information quantitatively

Research paper thumbnail of DSGE models in macroeconomics : estimation, evaluation, and new developments

Research paper thumbnail of Understanding the price puzzle

Economic and Financial Policy Review, 1994

Research paper thumbnail of The dynamics of recoveries

Research paper thumbnail of Nonlinear dynamics and covered interest parity

Research paper thumbnail of Augmented information in a theory of ambiguity, credibility and inflation

Research paper thumbnail of Oil price shocks and U.S. economic activity: an international perspective

Oil price shocks are thought to have played a prominent role in U.S. economic activity. In this p... more Oil price shocks are thought to have played a prominent role in U.S. economic activity. In this paper, we employ Bayesian methods with a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of world economic activity to identify the various sources of oil price shocks and economic fluctuation and to assess their effects on U.S. economic activity. We find that changes in oil

Research paper thumbnail of What Drives Stock Prices? Identifying the Determinants of Stock Price Movements

In this paper, we show that the data have difficulty distinguishing a stock price decomposition i... more In this paper, we show that the data have difficulty distinguishing a stock price decomposition in which expectations of future real dividend growth is a primary determinant of stock price movements from one in which expectations of future excess returns are a primary determinant. The data cannot distinguish between these very different decompositions because movements in the price–dividend ratio are

Research paper thumbnail of In No Uncertain Terms: The Effect of Uncertainty on Credit Frictions and Monetary Policy

Globalization Institute Working Paper No. 317r2, 2021

We examine the interaction of uncertainty and credit frictions in a New Keynesian framework. The ... more We examine the interaction of uncertainty and credit frictions in a New Keynesian framework. The model considers credit frictions arising from costly-state verification in the provision of loans to fund the acquisition of capital by entrepreneurs and includes three types of time-varying stochastic volatility shocks related to monetary policy uncertainty, financial risk (micro-uncertainty), and macro-uncertainty. Key parameters are estimated by the Simulated Method of Moments using U.S. data from 1984:Q1 until 2014:Q4. We find: 1. Micro-uncertainty has first-order effects that are significantly larger than the effects of macro-uncertainty and monetary policy uncertainty. 2. Poor credit conditions exacerbate the economic drag from micro-uncertainty shocks, amplify the effects of monetary policy shocks, and mitigate the impact of TFP shocks. 3. A degree of asymmetry and non-scalability appears in response to monetary policy shocks, dependent on the degree of nominal rigidities and init...

Research paper thumbnail of Recessions and recoveries

Economic and Financial Policy Review, Feb 1, 1993

Research paper thumbnail of Recessions and recoveries in real business cycle models: do real business cycle models generate cyclical behavior?

Research paper thumbnail of What's the Beige Book?

Research paper thumbnail of Large shocks, small shocks, and economic fluctuations: outliers in macroeconomic times series

Research paper thumbnail of The Estimation of Prewar GNP: Methodology and New Evidence

Research paper thumbnail of A Consumption-Based Decomposition of Stock Price Movements

Research paper thumbnail of The Contributions of Economic Fundamentals to Movements in Exchange Rates

Forthcoming Journal of International Economics, 2012

Research paper thumbnail of Supply shocks and the distribution of price changes

Economic and Financial Policy Review, 1996

Research paper thumbnail of An equilibrium analysis of relative price changes and aggregate inflation

Research paper thumbnail of Appendix B: Historical Data

Research paper thumbnail of Oil price shocks and the U.S. economy: where does the asymmetry originate?(Statistical Data Included)

The Energy Journal, Jun 1, 2002

... This paper uses a near vector autoregressive model of the US economy to examine where the asy... more ... This paper uses a near vector autoregressive model of the US economy to examine where the asymmetry might originate. ... 2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available. 3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available. Publisher Info. ...

Research paper thumbnail of How well does the Beige Book reflect economic activity? Evaluating qualitative information quantitatively

Research paper thumbnail of DSGE models in macroeconomics : estimation, evaluation, and new developments

Research paper thumbnail of Understanding the price puzzle

Economic and Financial Policy Review, 1994

Research paper thumbnail of The dynamics of recoveries

Research paper thumbnail of Nonlinear dynamics and covered interest parity

Research paper thumbnail of Augmented information in a theory of ambiguity, credibility and inflation

Research paper thumbnail of Oil price shocks and U.S. economic activity: an international perspective

Oil price shocks are thought to have played a prominent role in U.S. economic activity. In this p... more Oil price shocks are thought to have played a prominent role in U.S. economic activity. In this paper, we employ Bayesian methods with a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of world economic activity to identify the various sources of oil price shocks and economic fluctuation and to assess their effects on U.S. economic activity. We find that changes in oil

Research paper thumbnail of What Drives Stock Prices? Identifying the Determinants of Stock Price Movements

In this paper, we show that the data have difficulty distinguishing a stock price decomposition i... more In this paper, we show that the data have difficulty distinguishing a stock price decomposition in which expectations of future real dividend growth is a primary determinant of stock price movements from one in which expectations of future excess returns are a primary determinant. The data cannot distinguish between these very different decompositions because movements in the price–dividend ratio are

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