Bogdan Cumpanasu | National University of Political Studies and Public Administration (original) (raw)
Papers by Bogdan Cumpanasu
Relying on the linkage and leverage theory, the paper aims at reviewing critical issues related t... more Relying on the linkage and leverage theory, the paper aims at reviewing critical issues related to China’s economic, cultural and political expansion in EU’s Central and Eastern member states. Through the “17+1” format and “One Belt, One Road” initiative, China became an assertive competitor in Europe, acting on a “divide et impera” strategy through bilateral or multilateral negotiations, undermining the EU’s cohesion. Also, the European Union is facing a movement of illiberal, nationalist or populist policies that occurred in the former Warsaw Pact countries which are trying to avoid Brussels’ norms and therefore they are opened to other alternatives. In order to find out a pattern or relevant arguments for advancing a set of competing hypotheses or scenarios, a structured analytical technique will be applied, respectively “indicators or signposts of change”, for the following countries: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. In this regard, the key indica...
During Cold War, the region of Eastern Europe was formed by European states that were behind the ... more During Cold War, the region of Eastern Europe was formed by European states that were behind the Iron Curtain.Once the communism has fallen and former Warsaw's Pact members have joined EU in 2004 and 2007 along with the Baltic republics, a New Eastern Europe comprising Ukraine, Republic of Moldova and the Caucasian Republics emerged at the border of EU. The north, west and south maritime frontiers of European Union are opposite with Eastern territorial one that are more difficult to control and defend against asymmetrical threats as: organized crime, drugs traffic, arms proliferation and illegal immigration. this paper aims to demonstrate that EU's policies initiated in the framework of Eastern Partnership (EaP) that wanted to bring peace in the Eastern neighborhood did not succeed to fulfill the desired goals. One explanation is that EU did not take in consideration the Russian dream of redesigning its sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. Another one is that the cultural,...
https://intelligence.sri.ro/intarirea-securitatii-umane-solutie-pentru-combaterea-extremismului/, 2019
Extremism is interlinked to the concept of human security.-Social vulnerabilities can trigger soc... more Extremism is interlinked to the concept of human security.-Social vulnerabilities can trigger social tensions that enhance the challenges to the status quo. Extremism is a real threat to security and requires efficient measures in order to eradicate it. The European Union’s Global Strategy for Foreign and Security Policy proves, among other things, that investing in human development could significantly reduce extremism. This article points out that strengthening the human security could be a successful tool in combating the extremism.
După căderea comunismului, fostele ţări ale Pactului de la Varşovia şi statele Baltice au reuşit ... more După căderea comunismului, fostele ţări ale Pactului de la Varşovia şi statele Baltice au reuşit să îşi asigure securitatea prin extinderea succesivă a NATO în fosta sferă de influenţă a Uniunii Sovietice. În ultimii ani această nevoie de securitate s-a dovedit de importanţă majoră ca urmare a acţiunilor pe care Federaţia Rusă, revanşardă şi în ascensiune, le-a proiectat în vecinătate prin susţinerea sau declanșarea unor conflicte militare (în Georgia, Republica Moldova şi Ucraina) sau prin încălcarea dreptului internaţional (anexarea ilegală a Crimeei). În prezent, deşi fostele ţări comuniste din Europa Centrală şi statele Baltice beneficiază de tutela militară a NATO, acestea continuă să fie însă vulnerabile în faţa unui alt instrument de hard power folosit de Rusia în politica externă: şantajul energetic. Securitatea energetică a statelor din Europa Centrală şi de Est reprezintă o problemă stringentă, majoritatea acestora fiind dependente de gazul rusesc, încercând să identifice surse energetice alternative şi să-şi consolideze propriile capacităţi. Polonia şi România, cele mai mari ţări ale Europei Centrale şi, în acelaşi timp, principalii piloni ai NATO în frontiera răsăriteană sunt şi ţările cele mai active în ceea ce priveşte obiectivul de a deveni independente de Federaţia Rusă şi de a se transforma în hub-uri energetice regionale. În acelaşi timp, Ucraina, ţara de tranzit a gazelor ruseşti continuă să reprezinte un factor determinant în arhitectura energetică europeană, iar intenţiile Rusiei de a ocoli această ţară prin realizarea celor două mari proiecte regionale (Nord Stream II şi Turkish Stream) nu fac decât să întărească dependenţa energetică a ţărilor europene şi a Uniunii Europene (UE). Securitatea energetică-importanţa geopolitică În literatura teoretică a studiilor de securitate, conceptul de securitate energetică este perceput egal ca importanţă cu factorii militari clasici, urmare a setului complex de provocări la adresa securităţii şi stabilităţii societăţilor moderne 1. În completare, Joseph Nye apreciază că în prezent puterea nu mai vine pe ţeava tunului, cum menţiona Mao Zedong în perioada Războiului Rece, ci pe conducta de petrol sau de gaze naturale. Resursele naturale energetice sunt folosite ca un instrument de coerciţie (hard power), iar cele mai importante ţări producătoare joacă un rol semnificativ în politica mondială 2. Acelaşi teoretician apreciază că Rusia intervine direct în influenţarea pieţelor energetice europene prin intermediul companiei de stat-Gazprom-folosind diplomaţia conductelor pentru a obţine avantaje strategice în alte sectoare, inclusiv militare sau pentru a pune presiune pe ţările din regiune 3. În Uniunea Europeană, securitatea energetică este percepută drept asigurarea fizică
Relying on the linkage and leverage theory, the paper aims at reviewing critical issues related t... more Relying on the linkage and leverage theory, the paper aims at reviewing critical issues related to China's economic, cultural and political expansion in EU's Central and Eastern member states. Through the "17+1" format and "One Belt, One Road" initiative, China became an assertive competitor in Europe, acting on a "divide et impera" strategy through bilateral or multilateral negotiations, undermining the EU's cohesion. Also, the European Union is facing a movement of illiberal, nationalist or populist policies that occurred in the former Warsaw Pact countries which are trying to avoid Brussels' norms and therefore they are opened to other alternatives. In order to find out a pattern or relevant arguments for advancing a set of competing hypotheses or scenarios, a structured analytical technique will be applied, respectively "indicators or signposts of change", for the following countries: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. In this regard, the key indicators will refer to: economic factors, the strength of the civil society, the force of the opposition or of pro-European parties and the degree of Europeanization in the analysed states. Thereby, the article will advance three important questions: 1) Is EU in competition with China and how the confrontation takes place? 2) Which are the EU's countries more likely to strengthen the partnership with China? 3) Which are the EU's own linkages and leverages in its Eastern part and how they can be used for stopping China's advancement? The results will strengthen the idea that China became a real competitive actor, trying to expand in Europe, where the peripheral ex-communist states have been placed in the core of the confrontation. Also, the article will demonstrate that EU facing a real economic rival has the capabilities to stand up and therefore act as an international power.
Relying on the transition and democratisation theories, the paper aims to review the critical iss... more Relying on the transition and democratisation theories, the paper aims to review the critical issues related to the different paths followed by the ex-soviet republics in the independence period after 1991. Firstly, it introduces the subject by briefly examining the stakeholders existing at the first moment of transition in order to identify relevant indicators, which will later lead to democratization. Secondly, it underscores the degree to which the key actors in the region, such as the EU, NATO and Russian Federation influenced the democratization process of the former soviet republics. Thirdly, using a comparative case study research methodology, the article advances the following conclusions: (1) there is a regional stratification of transition: Lithuania belongs to the Euro-Atlantic community, in comparison with Ukraine, which is caught in a West-East pendulum; (2) the external influence decides the transition process of a country: Lithuania thrives as a democracy, due to Euro-Atlantic approach, instead the secessionist war and the continuing instability in Ukraine could be explained by an unsuccessful democratization.
During Cold War, the region of Eastern Europe was formed by European states that were behind the ... more During Cold War, the region of Eastern Europe was formed by European states that were
behind the Iron Curtain.Once the communism has fallen and former Warsaw's Pact members have joined
EU in 2004 and 2007 along with the Baltic republics, a New Eastern Europe comprising Ukraine, Republic
of Moldova and the Caucasian Republics emerged at the border of EU. The north, west and south maritime
frontiers of European Union are opposite with Eastern territorial one that are more difficult to control and
defend against asymmetrical threats as: organized crime, drugs traffic, arms proliferation and illegal
immigration. this paper aims to demonstrate that EU's policies initiated in the framework of Eastern
Partnership (EaP) that wanted to bring peace in the Eastern neighborhood did not succeed to fulfill the
desired goals. One explanation is that EU did not take in consideration the Russian dream of redesigning its
sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. Another one is that the cultural, political and social differences
between EU and its EaP partners led to the failure of the project. Thus, European Union's actions toward
Eastern vicinity led to a clash between two civilizations: East and West as well as to a geopolitical
competition between Russian Federation and EU over their shared neighborhood
fter the end of the Cold War and the fall of the communist regimes, Europe faced essential change... more fter the end of the Cold War and the fall of the communist
regimes, Europe faced essential changes, both in reshaping the European
borders, as well as in the occurrence of new ideas in society. Ground from
the inside by social inequality, lack of transparent and pluralist political
systems and limited liberty, the European ex-communist countries (Bulgaria,
Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia) embraced
voluntary the democratic values of the European Union (EU), perceived
among them as a guarantor of the fundamental human rights and a model of
governance. In this regard, their main political goal became the adherence
to EU and rallying to the European aquis, which represented a model for
internal reforms.
Even though the European policies assured the implementation of good
governance in the post-communist countries, nowadays we are witnesses of
a paradox: the communist reminiscences are mirrored in the political
discourse of influential leaders which try to undermine the rule of law and
democratic values, in order to gain more power of decision. The immediate
threat to the EU is generated by the nationalist and anti-European
discourses, as well as through the enhancement of the partnerships with the
former communist allies, which risks to divide the EU.
In order to repel this dangerous trend it is important to demonstrate that the
transition of these countries started under the direct influence of the EU’s
transformative power, which decisively contributed to their development and
it is necessary to have a more consolidated EU, which can bring mutual
benefits for the member states.
Therefore, the aim of this paper is to demonstrate that the Europeanization
had an enormous positive effect on Poland and contributed to the
democratization of the Polish state through economic growth, institutional
progress, entrepreneurship consolidation and reduction of the social
disparities
Relying on the linkage and leverage theory, the paper aims at reviewing critical issues related t... more Relying on the linkage and leverage theory, the paper aims at reviewing critical issues related to China’s economic, cultural and political expansion in EU’s Central and Eastern member states. Through the “17+1” format and “One Belt, One Road” initiative, China became an assertive competitor in Europe, acting on a “divide et impera” strategy through bilateral or multilateral negotiations, undermining the EU’s cohesion. Also, the European Union is facing a movement of illiberal, nationalist or populist policies that occurred in the former Warsaw Pact countries which are trying to avoid Brussels’ norms and therefore they are opened to other alternatives. In order to find out a pattern or relevant arguments for advancing a set of competing hypotheses or scenarios, a structured analytical technique will be applied, respectively “indicators or signposts of change”, for the following countries: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. In this regard, the key indica...
During Cold War, the region of Eastern Europe was formed by European states that were behind the ... more During Cold War, the region of Eastern Europe was formed by European states that were behind the Iron Curtain.Once the communism has fallen and former Warsaw's Pact members have joined EU in 2004 and 2007 along with the Baltic republics, a New Eastern Europe comprising Ukraine, Republic of Moldova and the Caucasian Republics emerged at the border of EU. The north, west and south maritime frontiers of European Union are opposite with Eastern territorial one that are more difficult to control and defend against asymmetrical threats as: organized crime, drugs traffic, arms proliferation and illegal immigration. this paper aims to demonstrate that EU's policies initiated in the framework of Eastern Partnership (EaP) that wanted to bring peace in the Eastern neighborhood did not succeed to fulfill the desired goals. One explanation is that EU did not take in consideration the Russian dream of redesigning its sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. Another one is that the cultural,...
https://intelligence.sri.ro/intarirea-securitatii-umane-solutie-pentru-combaterea-extremismului/, 2019
Extremism is interlinked to the concept of human security.-Social vulnerabilities can trigger soc... more Extremism is interlinked to the concept of human security.-Social vulnerabilities can trigger social tensions that enhance the challenges to the status quo. Extremism is a real threat to security and requires efficient measures in order to eradicate it. The European Union’s Global Strategy for Foreign and Security Policy proves, among other things, that investing in human development could significantly reduce extremism. This article points out that strengthening the human security could be a successful tool in combating the extremism.
După căderea comunismului, fostele ţări ale Pactului de la Varşovia şi statele Baltice au reuşit ... more După căderea comunismului, fostele ţări ale Pactului de la Varşovia şi statele Baltice au reuşit să îşi asigure securitatea prin extinderea succesivă a NATO în fosta sferă de influenţă a Uniunii Sovietice. În ultimii ani această nevoie de securitate s-a dovedit de importanţă majoră ca urmare a acţiunilor pe care Federaţia Rusă, revanşardă şi în ascensiune, le-a proiectat în vecinătate prin susţinerea sau declanșarea unor conflicte militare (în Georgia, Republica Moldova şi Ucraina) sau prin încălcarea dreptului internaţional (anexarea ilegală a Crimeei). În prezent, deşi fostele ţări comuniste din Europa Centrală şi statele Baltice beneficiază de tutela militară a NATO, acestea continuă să fie însă vulnerabile în faţa unui alt instrument de hard power folosit de Rusia în politica externă: şantajul energetic. Securitatea energetică a statelor din Europa Centrală şi de Est reprezintă o problemă stringentă, majoritatea acestora fiind dependente de gazul rusesc, încercând să identifice surse energetice alternative şi să-şi consolideze propriile capacităţi. Polonia şi România, cele mai mari ţări ale Europei Centrale şi, în acelaşi timp, principalii piloni ai NATO în frontiera răsăriteană sunt şi ţările cele mai active în ceea ce priveşte obiectivul de a deveni independente de Federaţia Rusă şi de a se transforma în hub-uri energetice regionale. În acelaşi timp, Ucraina, ţara de tranzit a gazelor ruseşti continuă să reprezinte un factor determinant în arhitectura energetică europeană, iar intenţiile Rusiei de a ocoli această ţară prin realizarea celor două mari proiecte regionale (Nord Stream II şi Turkish Stream) nu fac decât să întărească dependenţa energetică a ţărilor europene şi a Uniunii Europene (UE). Securitatea energetică-importanţa geopolitică În literatura teoretică a studiilor de securitate, conceptul de securitate energetică este perceput egal ca importanţă cu factorii militari clasici, urmare a setului complex de provocări la adresa securităţii şi stabilităţii societăţilor moderne 1. În completare, Joseph Nye apreciază că în prezent puterea nu mai vine pe ţeava tunului, cum menţiona Mao Zedong în perioada Războiului Rece, ci pe conducta de petrol sau de gaze naturale. Resursele naturale energetice sunt folosite ca un instrument de coerciţie (hard power), iar cele mai importante ţări producătoare joacă un rol semnificativ în politica mondială 2. Acelaşi teoretician apreciază că Rusia intervine direct în influenţarea pieţelor energetice europene prin intermediul companiei de stat-Gazprom-folosind diplomaţia conductelor pentru a obţine avantaje strategice în alte sectoare, inclusiv militare sau pentru a pune presiune pe ţările din regiune 3. În Uniunea Europeană, securitatea energetică este percepută drept asigurarea fizică
Relying on the linkage and leverage theory, the paper aims at reviewing critical issues related t... more Relying on the linkage and leverage theory, the paper aims at reviewing critical issues related to China's economic, cultural and political expansion in EU's Central and Eastern member states. Through the "17+1" format and "One Belt, One Road" initiative, China became an assertive competitor in Europe, acting on a "divide et impera" strategy through bilateral or multilateral negotiations, undermining the EU's cohesion. Also, the European Union is facing a movement of illiberal, nationalist or populist policies that occurred in the former Warsaw Pact countries which are trying to avoid Brussels' norms and therefore they are opened to other alternatives. In order to find out a pattern or relevant arguments for advancing a set of competing hypotheses or scenarios, a structured analytical technique will be applied, respectively "indicators or signposts of change", for the following countries: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. In this regard, the key indicators will refer to: economic factors, the strength of the civil society, the force of the opposition or of pro-European parties and the degree of Europeanization in the analysed states. Thereby, the article will advance three important questions: 1) Is EU in competition with China and how the confrontation takes place? 2) Which are the EU's countries more likely to strengthen the partnership with China? 3) Which are the EU's own linkages and leverages in its Eastern part and how they can be used for stopping China's advancement? The results will strengthen the idea that China became a real competitive actor, trying to expand in Europe, where the peripheral ex-communist states have been placed in the core of the confrontation. Also, the article will demonstrate that EU facing a real economic rival has the capabilities to stand up and therefore act as an international power.
Relying on the transition and democratisation theories, the paper aims to review the critical iss... more Relying on the transition and democratisation theories, the paper aims to review the critical issues related to the different paths followed by the ex-soviet republics in the independence period after 1991. Firstly, it introduces the subject by briefly examining the stakeholders existing at the first moment of transition in order to identify relevant indicators, which will later lead to democratization. Secondly, it underscores the degree to which the key actors in the region, such as the EU, NATO and Russian Federation influenced the democratization process of the former soviet republics. Thirdly, using a comparative case study research methodology, the article advances the following conclusions: (1) there is a regional stratification of transition: Lithuania belongs to the Euro-Atlantic community, in comparison with Ukraine, which is caught in a West-East pendulum; (2) the external influence decides the transition process of a country: Lithuania thrives as a democracy, due to Euro-Atlantic approach, instead the secessionist war and the continuing instability in Ukraine could be explained by an unsuccessful democratization.
During Cold War, the region of Eastern Europe was formed by European states that were behind the ... more During Cold War, the region of Eastern Europe was formed by European states that were
behind the Iron Curtain.Once the communism has fallen and former Warsaw's Pact members have joined
EU in 2004 and 2007 along with the Baltic republics, a New Eastern Europe comprising Ukraine, Republic
of Moldova and the Caucasian Republics emerged at the border of EU. The north, west and south maritime
frontiers of European Union are opposite with Eastern territorial one that are more difficult to control and
defend against asymmetrical threats as: organized crime, drugs traffic, arms proliferation and illegal
immigration. this paper aims to demonstrate that EU's policies initiated in the framework of Eastern
Partnership (EaP) that wanted to bring peace in the Eastern neighborhood did not succeed to fulfill the
desired goals. One explanation is that EU did not take in consideration the Russian dream of redesigning its
sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. Another one is that the cultural, political and social differences
between EU and its EaP partners led to the failure of the project. Thus, European Union's actions toward
Eastern vicinity led to a clash between two civilizations: East and West as well as to a geopolitical
competition between Russian Federation and EU over their shared neighborhood
fter the end of the Cold War and the fall of the communist regimes, Europe faced essential change... more fter the end of the Cold War and the fall of the communist
regimes, Europe faced essential changes, both in reshaping the European
borders, as well as in the occurrence of new ideas in society. Ground from
the inside by social inequality, lack of transparent and pluralist political
systems and limited liberty, the European ex-communist countries (Bulgaria,
Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia) embraced
voluntary the democratic values of the European Union (EU), perceived
among them as a guarantor of the fundamental human rights and a model of
governance. In this regard, their main political goal became the adherence
to EU and rallying to the European aquis, which represented a model for
internal reforms.
Even though the European policies assured the implementation of good
governance in the post-communist countries, nowadays we are witnesses of
a paradox: the communist reminiscences are mirrored in the political
discourse of influential leaders which try to undermine the rule of law and
democratic values, in order to gain more power of decision. The immediate
threat to the EU is generated by the nationalist and anti-European
discourses, as well as through the enhancement of the partnerships with the
former communist allies, which risks to divide the EU.
In order to repel this dangerous trend it is important to demonstrate that the
transition of these countries started under the direct influence of the EU’s
transformative power, which decisively contributed to their development and
it is necessary to have a more consolidated EU, which can bring mutual
benefits for the member states.
Therefore, the aim of this paper is to demonstrate that the Europeanization
had an enormous positive effect on Poland and contributed to the
democratization of the Polish state through economic growth, institutional
progress, entrepreneurship consolidation and reduction of the social
disparities