Abel B.S. Gaiya | School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London (original) (raw)

Papers by Abel B.S. Gaiya

Exploring the potential for conditional and unconditional prophecies to detect supernatural activ... more Exploring the potential for conditional and unconditional prophecies to detect supernatural activity, validate theological hypotheses, replace prayer studies, counteract the excesses of the Nigerian Charismatic Christian movement, and to provide an early-warning signal for social disasters resulting from preventable social evils.

***This is a fictional document (external prop) created for a fictional academic world in a fiction novel about religion, science and magic in West Africa. The author, designation, email address, research center and university are all fictional. Please do not cite as a genuine/non-fictional publication.

The project seeks to validate the hypothesis that déjà vu, Mandela effect and Capgras syndrome may be psychochronological indicators (PCIs) for temporal perturbations (TPs) caused by time travelers who travel from the future to the past.

Community-Driven Mini-Grids offer a transformative opportunity for Nigeria to address its electri... more Community-Driven Mini-Grids offer a transformative opportunity for Nigeria to address its electricity access challenges, especially in
underserved rural areas. By fostering community ownership and engagement, these models can ensure long-term sustainability, lower
energy costs, and support local economic development. With the right legal, financial, and technical support, CDMGs could play a crucial role in advancing Nigeria’s electrification goals and contributing to a cleaner, more inclusive energy future.

Clean Technology Hub, 2024

This article argues that Nigeria's energy transition faces the challenge of a fragmented policy s... more This article argues that Nigeria's energy transition faces the challenge of a fragmented policy space. Building on evidence from the 2024 National Budget, Google Trends search data, document review of national policy documents, institutional social media data, unstructured interviews, news reports and press releases, it is argued that no MDA has all the power, interest and capabilities to drive renewable energy growth within its own domain. This observation applies to the Federal Ministry of Power (FMP), Energy Commission of Nigeria (ECN), Rural Electrification Agency (REA), National Council on Climate Change (NCCC), and National Automotive Design and Development Council (NADDC).

Clean Technology Hub

Politicians and bureaucrats may have more to contribute to Nigeria’s energy transition than has b... more Politicians and bureaucrats may have more to contribute to Nigeria’s energy transition than has been suggested by most practitioners. Constituency projects, procurement of electricity systems for government offices, personal household solar system demand, and alignment with private businesses are some of the avenues through which these elites have, and can, make such contributions. Given the fact that the Nigerian government is the largest single employer in the country, the large size of constituency project budgets annually (about ₦100 billion), the large number and financial capabilities of Nigeria’s political and bureaucratic elites, and the systematic interface between elites’ public/institutional interests and their private/personal interests, these contributions should not be regarded as trivial.

International Journal of African Studies, 2024

A systematic and comprehensive study of Sahel, Sahara and Savannah ("Sahvara") responses to uneve... more A systematic and comprehensive study of Sahel, Sahara and Savannah ("Sahvara") responses to uneven development in West Africa since the colonial period has not been undertaken. This paper attempts to begin to close this gap. Drawing largely on the secondary literature, it outlines the north-south tensions that existed in several West African territories under colonial rule, which persisted during the period of decolonization. During the postcolonial period, economically lagging northern regions increasingly asserted centralised power in different countries through military coups and/or electoral victories, although this was not an option for demographically and politically weak lagging regions such as northern Mali and northern Ghana. The high level of military coups in West Africa, Mano River Region crisis and expansion of terrorism in the Sahara, Sahel, Lake Chad Basin and, potentially, northern regions of Gulf of Guinea countries, should be interpreted in light of this long-term tension associated with uneven development in West Africa.

Advances in Politics and Economics, 2024

Industrial policy in countries characterized by high levels of unproductive and disorganized corr... more Industrial policy in countries characterized by high levels of unproductive and disorganized corruption is, unsurprisingly, also ridden with high levels of corruption. With dispersed distributions of power, it is more difficult to create and maintain pockets of bureaucratic effectiveness to drive successful industrial policy. This is the case in Nigeria. There has, however, been no research into the involvement of its premier anti-corruption agency, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), in industrial policy enforcement. The article identifies this phenomenon through news reports and proposes avenues for empirical research and policy experimentation. The EFCC has, over years, been involved with development loan recoveries, local content policy enforcement and infrastructure contract enforcement. These have often been at the invitation of the relevant implementing agencies which often display inundation with the enforcement challenge. Its substantial investigative and prosecutorial capabilities acquired from anti-corruption activities in a highly corrupt country have made it a key agency for others to call when help with enforcement is needed. There are some indications of propositions to institutionalize or regularize the EFCC’s involvement in local content policy and infrastructure contract enforcement, but no serious attention has been paid to these in the literature or news circles.

This article provides an account of the collapse of trans-Saharan trade and why it has not been r... more This article provides an account of the collapse of trans-Saharan trade and why it has not been revitalized till today. In addition to the administrative fragmentation of the Maghreb and West Africa and the fact that no Maghrebo-Sahelian colonial territory was created, the collapse did not stimulate wide, prominent and persistent discontent within West Africa, the Sahara and the Maghreb. Saharan and Sahelian merchants quickly adapted to take advantage of Atlantic trade opportunities; West African extra-regional trade orientation shifted towards the Atlantic and Maghrebi Mediterranean orientation intensified; while technological intensification and minerals exploitation were perceive by Saharans and other West Africans as the means of developing the Sahara. Postcolonial diplomatic tensions between the Maghreb and West Africa further contributed to the weakness of attempts to revitalize trans-Saharan trade. There is a more fundamental question of whether it is even possible to do so, given the geo-climatic constraints faced by the Sahara compared to the strength of alternative coastal trade routes.

Clean Technology Hub, 2023

The national grid will remain the dominant source of electricity in Nigeria (for about two thirds... more The national grid will remain the dominant source of electricity in Nigeria (for about two thirds of the population). Improving the performance of the national grid will therefore continue to be a priority for Nigeria. Nonetheless, there is a potential role that mini-grids can play in doing this. Mini-grids, which can provide 100 kWh to 1MW of electricity to a community, have been praised for their potential in electrifying a large percentage of Nigeria’s unelectrified population and at the same time contributing to rural development by being a gateway to introduction of productive use equipment. There is, however, another potential benefit to mini-grids that has not received adequate attention among practitioners or analysts. This benefit is the impact of the mini-grid sector on the national grid sector itself, whose failure in Nigeria is partly why the country is the second largest potential mini-grid market in sub-Saharan Africa and the largest in West Africa.

Clean Technology Hub, 2023

Although Nigeria ranks third in aggregate green hydrogen potential among ECOWAS member countries,... more Although Nigeria ranks third in aggregate green hydrogen potential among ECOWAS member countries, it is a major oil producer, the largest economy in West Africa, and a key player in West African transition geopolitics. Unlike Mali and Niger (which account for 84% of the subregional potential), it is a Gulf of Guinea country with direct access to ports, shipping, and ocean transportation which would be valuable for participating in global hydrogen markets and for driving down hydrogen costs. This cost reduction could occur by encouraging demand from refining and chemical production concentrated in coastal industrial zones, already using hydrogen produced from fossil fuels.

The Republic, 2023

The absence of a strong external military threat for Africa has created an atmosphere whereby att... more The absence of a strong external military threat for Africa has created an atmosphere whereby attempts at institutionalizing pan-Africanism are typically weak and it has typically been through the pressures of crises (warfare, famines and geopolitical competition) that more substantive efforts at regional cooperation have emerged.

The Republic, 2023

Why did Nigeria take so long to sign into the African Continental Free Trade Agreement? I argue t... more Why did Nigeria take so long to sign into the African Continental Free Trade Agreement? I argue that this is the result of the country's problematic trans-coastal relations. The political geography of the West African Gulf of Guinea - characterized by almost triple the number of countries as the Sahel, made up of large countries interspersed with smaller countries, and multiple currency zones - has made parallel trade prosper in the region. There is thus a paradoxical situation whereby the large coastal states, possessing larger domestic markets, protect their industries with high import barriers, while at the same time the smaller coastal states undermine such protectionism by fostering parallel cross-border trade. Nigeria, due to its highly dispersed political settlement, also suffers from low levels of industrial policy effectiveness. This situation puts Nigeria in constant fear that trade liberalization will undermine its weak manufacturing sector, which never graduates from ‘infant industry’ protection. The Nigerian president therefore is continuously surrounded by interests calling for border closures when external shocks hit that worsen the country’s trade deficits; interests asking for trade barriers and railing against attempts at trade liberalization for industries enjoying protection from foreign trade without positive results; and interests in favour of foot-dragging at the implementation stage when trade agreements have been signed. I argue for giving Beninese business elites access to and active support in the large Nigerian market to build manufacturing capabilities and creating a conduit through which profits, forward and backward linkages, and subcontracting relationships are created between the two countries. This is so that anti-parallel trade coalitions in Benin could be strengthened and official trade could increase. In addition, the president-elect must adopt an ‘experimental governance’ approach in order to discover country, sector and context-specific ways to make Nigeria’s industrial policies more effective.
https://republic.com.ng/april-may-2023/nigeria-president-foreign-economic-policy/

Nigerian Journal of Anti-Corruption Studies, 2022

The state of capitalist development, weak tax bases and dispersed distributions of power means th... more The state of capitalist development, weak tax bases and dispersed distributions of power means that corruption is a structural and perpetual phenomenon in developing countries. This is the case in Nigeria. As a result, vertical anti-corruption efforts continuously fail to eradicate the problem. At the same time, industrial policy enforcement fails to be effective, thereby producing poor economic successes and high levels of industrial policy corruption. Nigeria is characterized by both poor industrial policy results and high corruption levels, with a large part of corruption capital exported abroad or stored as idle and unproductive assets. This paper argues that a “corruption-investment amnesty” could be added to the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission’s (EFCC) range of powers and mandate, to target politically-exposed persons against whom litigation, plea bargains and asset forfeiture are more difficult to secure than low- and mid-level corrupt persons. This could forge a direct link between anti-corruption and industrial policy, thereby increasing both the rate of investment of corruption capital and the enforcement of learning for productivity upon amnesty recipients.

The Republic, 2023

West Africa is ‘malformed’, a phenomenon including, but not limited to, the reversal of fortunes ... more West Africa is ‘malformed’, a phenomenon including, but not limited to, the reversal of fortunes between interior and coastal spaces mainly through coastal-biased colonial economic policies. After gaining independence, more inland regions regained influence through political power due to their large populations and/or the fragmentation of southern regions, through waves of coups and military rule (with West Africa having the highest share of Africa’s military coups), or both. On one hand, politically marginalized lagging regions (such as the northern regions of Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Mali and Niger), too politically weak to channel central government resources to their regions, suffer from inadequate development expenditure channelled to their regions from central governments. However, conversely, politically powerful, but economically lagging regions in the rest of the countries suffer from weak states, inter-regional competition and policy incoherence which distort development action undertaken by both central governments and subnational governments in lagging regions. At the subnational level, being a lagging region comes with institutional characteristics which make it more difficult to overcome that condition. This also implies that the move towards decentralization and subnational unit proliferation (i.e., increasing the number of subnational administrative units such as states, local governments and districts) across West Africa (which ranks among the top regions in the world in this proliferation since the 1990s) does not solve this problem. Malformation is not inconsequential. That the Lake Chad Basin (at the intersection of Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon) and the Liptako-Gourma area (at the intersection of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso) form ‘the two main epicentres of transnational violence’, centered on the two epicenters of malformation (Nigeria and Mali) in West Africa is not a coincidence. Solving West Africa’s crisis and addressing its spatial inequalities requires much more than conventional economic analysis, deployment of the ‘good governance’ literature and simple arguments to turn towards a population-centric and development-oriented counter-insurgency approach. ‘Good governance’ analysis must be replaced by that of ‘developmental governance’ and West Africans must analyse their countries’ problems from a more regional lens.

Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 2023

The abolition of slavery in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries was a long process. In terms o... more The abolition of slavery in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries was a long process. In terms of the economic views of abolitionists, there has been an excessive focus on the economic ideas of liberal abolitionists and their approach to “Civilization, Christianity, and Commerce.” However, there was a “developmental abolitionism” that has received little attention. Afro-American Martin R. Delany and Liberian James S. Payne were writers who approached abolitionism through this developmentalism. They favored more interventionist measures aimed at building the material power and national autonomy of Black nations to undercut the power of slave-using African chiefs, to provide indigenous Africans with employment, and to undermine the profitability of slave-based cotton production in the Americas. They also implicitly and indirectly approached labor scarcity with solutions ranging from promoting labor-saving technology to cultivating national prosperity that would improve emigration to Africa or increase birth rates.

The levels of insecurity in Nigeria have risen in recent years. With increased levels of banditry... more The levels of insecurity in Nigeria have risen in recent years. With increased levels of banditry and kidnapping, and the persistence of insurgency, many sectors have been affected. This policy brief represents the first assessment of the impact of insecurity on Nigeria’s mini-grid sector. This is an important issue because mini-grids are the most viable means of expanding access to energy to rural areas which face only a 31% electrification rate and little chance of being electrified for years to come.
Using evidence from desk research, surveys and interviews with mini-grid developers, national security experts and government officials, we identify significant negative impacts of increased levels of insecurity on the mini-grid sector, especially in Northern Nigeria. The impacts include:
● Exclusion of sites facing high levels of insecurity;
● Delays or suspension of mini-grid projects;
● More restricted mobility of field personnel;
● Greater hesitation of funders for projects located in states and regions
experiencing high levels of insecurity; and
● Delays in in-person verification of completed projects by the Nigerian Electricity Management Services Agency (NEMSA) and the Rural Electrification Agency and therefore in disbursement of funds to the developer.
The impact of insecurity on developers is, however, uneven. It is influenced by a range of structural factors, including the geographical locations of their mini-grid projects, their degree of specialization in mini-grid products, as well as their size and capacity.

Nineteenth century pre-colonial Africa saw various attempts at defensive modernization, from the ... more Nineteenth century pre-colonial Africa saw various attempts at defensive modernization, from the Imerina Empire in Southern Africa, Egypt in North Africa, Ethiopia and Zanzibar in East Africa, and Asante and Liberia in West Africa. The paper provides an overview of these efforts, as well as historical, geographical, and geopolitical contextualization. It further examines the African experience with pre-colonial proto-industrialization, how bellicist pressures also led to attempts at intensive economic growth, and how progress was limited by environmental and technical limitations, as well as disruption by the Atlantic slave trade.

Theoria: A Journal of Social and Political Theory, 2021

The article places Nigeria’s political and economic challenges in historical and global context. ... more The article places Nigeria’s political and economic challenges in historical and global context. As opposed to viewing democracy or development emerging simply as the ‘will of the people’ or ‘political will’, it encourages a historical and structural view of the phenomena. Sustained democratic institutions and intensive economic growth emerge under particular conditions where the continued maintenance of hegemony and gate-keeping extractive states are no longer viable. A diversified capitalist class and economic power among a strong middle class are needed to demand greater democratic accountability. Industrial policy is essential to creating the structural change required for their emergence. Yet the dispersed and ethno-religiously fragmented distribution of power makes industrial policy implementation difficult. Given the salience of such historical and structural forces, postcolonial Nigerians should be seen as formative generations. Students and practitioners of development economics, policy and politics should be more creative in producing politically-informed policies for the country.

The Republic, 2021

Due to Islamic regulations uniquely governing the lives of Muslims even in the public sphere, non... more Due to Islamic regulations uniquely governing the lives of Muslims even in the public sphere, non-Muslim political, religious, economic and intellectual leaders in Muslim-populated countries face an additional premium to understand Islam at a level greater than the global average, albeit less than that of Muslim leaders. This is important in order to better engage with the proposals for institutional, political, economic, social and cultural reform continuously proposed by Muslim leaders.

African Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities Research , 2020

Among other factors, successful industrial policy requires pockets of bureaucratic efficiency to ... more Among other factors, successful industrial policy requires pockets of bureaucratic efficiency to be present. However, there are cases whereby pockets of efficiency are imperfect under competitive clientelist political settlements. As such, adequate resources and organizational capabilities of capitalists could compensate for the deficits in industrial policy tools while being supported by other, "lighter", policy tools. The case of Dangote Group in the Nigerian cement and downstream oil industries is presented to demonstrate this. While the Nigerian state was unable to implement heavier industrial policy tools, it could provide tariffs and fiscal incentives (tax exemptions and holidays). Yet, for most of the Fourth Republic period, only in the cement industry was there such a firm to take advantage of these industrial supports.

Clean Technology Hub, 2024

Clean Technology Hub

International Journal of African Studies, 2024

Advances in Politics and Economics, 2024

Clean Technology Hub, 2023

The Republic, 2023

Nigerian Journal of Anti-Corruption Studies, 2022

The Republic, 2023

Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 2023

Theoria: A Journal of Social and Political Theory, 2021

The Republic, 2021

African Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities Research , 2020

***This is a fictional document (external prop) created for a fictional academic world in a ficti... more ***This is a fictional document (external prop) created for a fictional academic world in a fiction novel about religion, science and magic in West Africa. The author, designation, email address, research center and university are all fictional. Please do not cite as a genuine/non-fictional publication. Measuring variation in the prevalence of demonic inhabitancy (DI) across populations using the responsiveness of low-level psychokinesis results to quantitative sinfulness indicators.

West Africa is characterized by four development traps. First, the co-nationality of coastal and ... more West Africa is characterized by four development traps. First, the co-nationality of coastal and hinterland spaces characterized by high levels of inter-regional inequality fragments the power of ruling coalitions and therefore breeds less growth-enhancing national political settlements among Gulf of Guinea countries than other African regions and also limits the willingness and capacity of central governments to develop lagging regions. Second, the weaker productive class formation in the landlocked and interior regions breeds less growth-enhancing subnational (in the interior regions of Gulf of Guinea countries) and national (in the Sahel countries) political settlements in the interior than in the coastal countries and regions. The third trap is that the development prospects of coastal regions (relative to coastal regions in non-West African countries) and lagging regions of Gulf of Guinea countries (relative to sovereign Sahel countries) are themselves limited due to the unavailability of a wider set of industrial policy tools which these regions can use to advance their economic position. The fourth trap arises from the political geography of the Gulf of Guinea, whereby smaller coastal states systematically undermine the industrial and agricultural policies of neighbouring large coastal states within three parallel trade circuits: centred on Nigeria (with Benin and Niger being transit zones), Ghana-Cote d’Ivoire (with Togo being the key transit zone), and Senegambia. Combined, the quadruple trap implies a six-category only partly spatially linear division of West African regions by political settlements, in descending order of growth-enhancement: large coastal zones (southern Nigeria, southern Ghana, southern Côte d’Ivoire and western Senegal); small coastal zones (southern Benin, southern Togo, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea, Gambia and Guinea-Bissau); politically relevant hinterland zones of Gulf of Guinea nations (northern Nigeria, northern Benin, northern Togo, northern Côte d’Ivoire and Mauritania) and Burkina Faso; southern zones of Sahel nations (southern Mali and southern Niger); politically irrelevant hinterland zones of Gulf of Guinea nations (northern Ghana), and northern zones of Sahel nations (northern Niger and northern Mali).

I argue that, in responding to demands for the expansion of Islamic institutions and law, Nigeria... more I argue that, in responding to demands for the expansion of Islamic institutions and law, Nigeria cannot follow the models of Muslim-majority countries and Muslim-minority countries where Christians and secularists are either “law-takers” or “law-givers”. Out of 232 countries and territories, Nigeria is unique for having an equal Muslim population (classified as 46-55 percent). Along with a strong Islamic institutional legacy, this creates persistent and loud public propositions for the expansion of Islamic public institutions and law, with uneven progression. The face of public Islam may be categorized into three groups (basic, institutionally plural, and domineering/totalizing public Islam). I argue that Nigeria’s non-Muslim population entered into nationhood based on a minimalist approach, whereby only basic public Islam was accommodated. Thus, when faced with more extensive faces of public Islam, non-Muslims typically react with immediate opposition or strategic silence, which inadvertently either have no impact on impeding some public Islamic propositions, fail to use windows of opportunity to latch on progressive agendas, and/or fuel Muslim recourse to domineering public Islam. I propose an “optimalist” approach, characterized by a combination of “ideational asabiyyism” and “structural asabiyyism”. Ideational asabiyyism enables a more informed reaction to Muslim propositions for institutional plurality, based on a decision matrix built after reviewing four prominent cases of public Islamic propositions for Islamic institutional plurality (i.e. the Organization of Islamic Cooperation membership controversy of the 1980s, Sharia extension debate of the 2000s, the Islamic banking saga of 2011/2012, and the naira note Ajami debate of 2016). Structural asabiyyism addresses domineering political Islam and violent Islamism through the diversification of actors that increased tax capacity and economic development enable.

This paper proposes that West Africa's malformation is a key explanatory framework for its level ... more This paper proposes that West Africa's malformation is a key explanatory framework for its level and pattern of conflicts since the region became politically independent in the 1960s. Many of the region's first and largest conflicts (including military coups, civil wars, rebellions, terrorism, international conflicts and farmer-herder conflicts) have had malformative origins. Shocks also come from beyond the region, through three gates of external vulnerability: a western gate (from Latin America), a northern gate (from the Maghreb and Europe) and an eastern gate (from the Middle East and China). Several expansionary mechanisms (prolongation, diffusion, repetition and residualist forces) further worsen conflicts when they emerge. Conflicts have not overrun countries and the region in general due to certain internal and external stabilization measures and forces. Nonetheless, malformation has led not only to the emergence and perpetuation of conflict, but also to the undermining of the capacity of states and local communities to respond to these conflicts.

The social, economic and military problems associated with pre-industrial conditions and postindu... more The social, economic and military problems associated with pre-industrial conditions and postindustrialisation creates surplus demand for industrialisation from both developing and high income countries. In an age of universal efforts to industrialize (UEI), not all countries can successfully industrialize, and there are very few opportunities for countries to attain high income status without industrializing. By examining the secondary literature and making use of secondary quantitative data, it is shown that this is the result of demand-side (differential sectoral income elasticities of demand for manufactured goods and services for high income countries, and limited income levels for low income countries) and supply-side (economies of agglomeration) constraints. This truncated process of Global Structural Transformation (GST) has implications for development strategy and development studies, which include the necessity of global territorial reconfiguration, management of international commodity markets, and the need to draw on, and adapt, degrowth theory, post-development theory to this challenge.

This manuscript attempts to close major gaps in the literature on the history of development assi... more This manuscript attempts to close major gaps in the literature on the history of development assistance - which often begins from the mid-20th century or at best from the early 20th century. It argues for the relevance of "regimes of international development" which may be positive, neutral or negative, in explaining global thinking around development assistance since the early modern period. It takes both thematic and chronological approaches to the narrative, highlighting the salience of negative regimes of international development with the rise of merchant capitalism, and the responses taken by small powers and the European and global semi-periphery to this situation. At a time when many in the periphery and semi-periphery did not deem positive development assistance to be feasible, these responses include advocacy for free trade, proposing alternate inter-state orders, calling for greater legislative representation, fighting for political independence, and forming alliances and coalitions with peers. 19th century economic liberalism, saint-simonianism, Marxist and Listian movements did not improve the situation. Moreover, while there was an explosion of propositions for positive development assistance from the turn of the 20th century, it was not until the post-Second World War period, under the pressures of the threat of communist expansionism, that the Marshall Plan - a positive development assistance mechanism - appeared, albeit unevenly. However, while the overt belligerence of pre-20th century negative RIDs have ended, there remains a tensile equilibrium embedded in contemporary RIDs. Neutral RIDs actually require active state management among aid benefactors, while positive RIDs induce industrial adjustment costs and some levels of depletion among benefactors. The equilibrium is therefore characterized by high income countries' preference for palliative aid at the same time that lower income countries press for radical aid.

Illiberal and violent practices undertaken by adherents of a religion, which are not the result o... more Illiberal and violent practices undertaken by adherents of a religion, which are not the result of a balanced interpretation of core religious doctrines are pervasive across the world. However, it would be just as inaccurate to say that these acts are entirely doctrinal as it is to say that they have nothing to do with the religion. This middle position, which may be termed the "notional periphery", has gone under-theorized for far too long. The notional periphery of a religion or ideology refers to the interaction between the core of the ideology and the behavioural dispositions of ignorance, self-service and/or contextual conditions among those who adopt the ideology. This paper argues that two of the world's largest religions, Christianity and Islam, theologically endogenize their peripheries in proportion to the thesis of humanity's compulsion in following its passions and whims which are often self-serving. It then follows that, rather than become stuck on the debate on whether certain illiberal and violent acts are truly part of a religion or not, religious adherents should turn to the interaction between doctrines and human preferences and behaviour, and consequently to the measures that can be put in place to mitigate the prevalence and intensity of notional peripheries.

The Elgar Companion to Health and the Sustainable Development Goals, 2025

The twenty-first century has seen the rise of new global development agendas, from the Millennium... more The twenty-first century has seen the rise of new global development agendas, from the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) around which African governments, activists, and civil society have framed their development goals. The African continent faces both significant opportunities and challenges in meeting these goals, with challenges existing in a general setting of weaker states. As a result, many more actors need to be involved in driving development action in Africa. This plays out in the realms of energy access, health and gender inequality - areas embodied by the SDG goals seven (access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all), three (good health and wellbeing), and five (achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls). This chapter explores the intersection between energy access, health and gender inequality in Nigeria from the perspectives of four practitioners. In addition to myself as a co-founder of a clean energy incubation and research hub, the practitioners include entrepreneurs in clean energy supply. These cases examine how we have entered into the clean energy sector and how we perceive the way our work impacts on women’s health outcomes, through a reduction of exposure to harmful pollutants, improvement in women’s livelihoods and ability to cater to their health needs, and the provision of energy to healthcare facilities and consequent improvement in maternal health. It is these stories of success that partly drive action in the sector. However, there remain several challenges to scaling such interventions and broadening their impact, especially in a continent characterized by large rural and informal populations.

West Africa has underperformed in a range of economic, human development and political stability ... more West Africa has underperformed in a range of economic, human development and political stability indicators. Several scholars have proposed political and economic geography explanations for this relative underperformance. This paper proposes a single analytical framework with which to explain the region’s performance called ‘malformation’. This refers to the alteration in West Africa’s political and economic geography in a way that induces economic and political underdevelopment and instability and is relevant for understanding both West Africa’s development trajectory relative to other African regions and intra-regional variation in these trajectories. Dividing I-pattern malformation into horizontal and vertical malformation, the paper focuses on the vertical malformation component, specifically malformation in coast-savannah and Sahel-Saharan relations. Based on this, and drawing on the secondary literature and secondary data, the 16 West African countries are categorized into four zones of vertical malformation that are argued to have explanatory power for intra-regional variation in economic outcomes, political stability and conflict: a zone of reversal (Nigeria and Mali), a zone of divergence (Benin, Togo, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Niger, Burkina Faso and Mauritania), a zone of equal suppression (Gambia, Guinea and Guinea-Bissau) and a zone of stability (Cabo Verde and Senegal).

In the pre-modern era, abolitionists would have had to deal with the structural persistence of fo... more In the pre-modern era, abolitionists would have had to deal with the structural persistence of four sources of slave supply: war, poverty, debt and crime. The absence of prisons meant that the alternative to enslavement or forced labour of criminals for major crimes was death; the absence of international agreements on the exchange of prisoners of war meant that the alternative to enslaving war captives was to kill them; the high levels of poverty and vulnerability combined with the political realities associated with high levels of wealth and land inequality, intense elite and familial competition for land, and weak social welfare nets meant that the alternative to self-sale into slavery was starvation and death; and there was no viable alternative to enslaving the indebted in the absence of imprisonment. In all cases, the economic limitations of pre-capitalist societies fostered the persistence of the circuits of slave supply. Within this context, sub-abolitionist sentiments emerged among ascetics who most critically opposed materialism and advocated most for the poor (such as the Jewish Essenes and Therapeutae, the Jaina reformer Vardhmana, the Christian Gregory of Nyssa and John Woolman and other Quakers of the eighteenth century; among just war theorists who discouraged the enslavement of kinsmen (such as Plato and Aristotle for the Greeks) or co-religionists (the Church for late antiquity Europe, and Muslim jurists for dar al Islam); and among most revolutionary movements in the ancient world which sought to cancel debts. It was the mass of transformations in all these areas that made eighteenth century abolitionism not only ideologically existent (albeit a weak causal relationship), but also practically, structurally and politically feasible (a stronger causal relationship): the rise of nation-states, national standing armies and nationalization of war creating new norms and practices of better treatment of war captives; the increased potential for growth in employment opportunities and therefore for freed slaves to make a living; the emergence of publicly-funded social policy in the eighteenth century; a secular decline in the cost of capital since the seventeenth century; and the rise of penitentiaries in the eighteenth century.

*This is a fictional document (external prop) created for a fictional academic world in a fiction... more *This is a fictional document (external prop) created for a fictional academic world in a fiction novel about religion, science and magic in West Africa. The author, designation, email address, research center and university are all fictional. Please do not cite.* This is part of the Asiriverse: A fictional universe within a fiction novel about a scholar documenting the boundaries of religion, science and magic in an alternate 21st century West Africa facing multiple threats: from the resurrection of a centuries-old curse in the Sahara and the convergence of demonic forces on the Atlantic coast to growing rates of supernatural crimes converging on Lagos city and havoc wreaked by hypernatural creatures. Hired as a consultant in the Anomalous Crimes Unit of the Nigerian Police Force, Madaki tries to uncover what is actually happening in the region.

Responding to theories which explain, both theoretically and empirically Christian conversion rates as purely explainable by natural psychological, sociological and environmental influences, the paper argues that the divine influence in salvation maintained by scripture may be empirically observable. This is put into empirically-testable form. Theology implies that the conversion rate to Christianity would be than we would statistically expect if strictly only natural influences were at play, relative to other religions. One alternative and three major supplementary formulations are presented: Christianity should instead have the highest ‘earthly-factorial’ explanatory power; Christianity should have the greatest extra-earthly margin when the coefficients of other religions are used to predict its conversion rate; Christianity should have the lowest deconversion rate among all religions after all relevant earthly influential factors are controlled for; and only Christianity should have a statistically significant correlation between the frequency and intensity of Christians’ salvific intercessory prayers and conversion rate.

This paper provides an account of the material divergence and reversal of fortune that occurred i... more This paper provides an account of the material divergence and reversal of fortune that occurred in West Africa, where material capabilities moved from the Western Sudan to the coast. It also highlights tensions that existed prior and during the reversal that would become important in shaping inter-societal, inter-ethnic and inter-racial relations in West Africa during the colonial and postcolonial periods. The paper focuses on the evolution from the Saharan (11 th to 17 th century) to the "Second Atlantic period" (1960s till present). The outcomes of this divergence and reversal have been various fragilities in West Africa, including political instability, terrorism, persistent poverty and poor human development outcomes. Measures such as military rule, democracy, lagging regions' elite capture of political power, administrative unit proliferation or decentralization, foreign aid, the expansion of the shariah and violent religious extremism, have not worked in reversing this situation. West Africa therefore needs new movements and ideologies appropriate for its context in order to overcome its peculiar challenges.

From thousands of polities, the national and imperial consolidations since the early modern era h... more From thousands of polities, the national and imperial consolidations since the early modern era has produced less than 200 nations. The fiscal implications of this have not been incorporated into historical accounts of international development assistance. By looking for the origins of development aid and assistance in North-South fiscal transfers between independent nations or within large empires, these historical accounts often begin with the late nineteenth or early twentieth century. Although early propositions for continental federation, universal monarchy or balance of power alliances did not incorporate proposals for financial aid or fiscal redistribution, it is argued that embedded in the national unifications and consolidations since the early modern period have been arrangements for fiscal transfers and redistribution that may have played important roles in ensuring fiscal survival and the reduction of regional inequalities. The evidence is drawn from case studies from around the world, informed by secondary sources which show the quantitative significance of horizontal inter-territorial transfers (for Spanish America and French West Africa) and the instabilities resulting from the absence of such stable transfers in situations of high spatial inequality and national fiscal fragility.

I am interested in authoring a book on 19th century African economic thought and another on moder... more I am interested in authoring a book on 19th century African economic thought and another on modern black economic thought. Unfortunately, primary sources are dispersed, many are non-digitized (and only accessible from physical archives in different countries), and they are written in multiple languages (with most non-English texts not having English translated versions due to very low broader interest beyond their countries of origin). To ease the task for researchers and scholars interested in the topic, I am taking a small and independent step towards a larger project for the aggregation/compilation, digitization, translation and utilization of black writings for scholars interested in reconstructing the history of modern African economic, political and social thought. Please suggest additional primary sources that have not been included in this bibliography.

Kwame Nkrumah, one of the leading advocates for African unity and the importance role of industri... more Kwame Nkrumah, one of the leading advocates for African unity and the importance role of industrialization among African nationalists, espoused what became in 2013 the second aspiration of the African Union Agenda 2063: An integrated continent, politically united and based on the ideals of Pan-Africanism and the vision of Africa's Renaissance. Yet these two generations-Nkrumah's and the present one-are not the first African generations to express industrialization aspirations. We have entered into the third century of African visions and efforts towards industrialization and structural transformation. The absorption, by the African intelligentsia and ordinary citizens, of the European conceptualization of industrialization, economic nationalism and classical liberal and neoliberal discourses reflects the implicit ideological absorption of economic and political geographies which vastly differ from those of Africa. This intellectual malformation would only lead to more crises in Africa, unsuccessful efforts at industrialization, addressing insecurity and fostering climate adaptation by the end of this century. We must therefore require as much focus on alternative economic systems, infra-national and international economic redistribution as is put on industrialization and economic diversification. Third wave African youths must absorb these lessons if we are all to make strides this time. Otherwise, we will end the century with a reset: a new premature deindustrialization and a new generation repeating the cycle of industrialization aspirations all over again; this time under even more compressed global and geo-climatic conditions.

I argue that it is on the basis of six restraints – basic and rugged economic resilience; citizen... more I argue that it is on the basis of six restraints – basic and rugged economic resilience; citizens’ direction of their demands to corrupt and inefficient governments; significant space for capturing greater shares of the value produced from resource extraction; availability of foreign palliative aid; predominance of intra-south migration, and coercive measures against negative developmental consequences of neutral or negative modes of global economic integration – that the global North has not been overrun by the global South through immigration and diffusion of instabilities. This is despite the latter harbouring the highest global concentration of poverty rates, youth unemployment rates, entrepreneurial hazard rates, government revenues as a share of GDP, formal social spending, economic instability, political instability, civil wars, crime, human, drug and other forms of trafficking, homelessness, preventable diseases, lack of access to healthcare, illiteracy rates, and so on.

This is part of the Asiriverse: A fictional universe within a fiction novel about a scholar documenting the boundaries of religion, science and magic in an alternate 21st century West Africa facing multiple threats: from the resurrection of a centuries-old curse in the Sahara and the convergence of demonic forces on the Atlantic coast to growing rates of supernatural crimes converging on Lagos city and havoc wreaked by hypernatural creatures. Hired as a consultant in the Anomalous Crimes Unit of the Nigerian Police Force, Madaki tries to uncover what is actually happening in the region.

Africa’s experience of closer Western European contact in the nineteenth century saw a range of r... more Africa’s experience of closer Western European contact in the nineteenth century saw a range of responses, including those that reflected on the economic implications. This paper presents a continental overview of these responses, and categorizes nineteenth century African economic thought into three groupings: a grouping based on the extent of encounter with European actors and transformations (pre-encounter versus post-encounter texts), a grouping based on the extent of elucidation upon economic topics (passing mention, substantive mention, absolute comprehensiveness and relative comprehensiveness), and a grouping of the post-encounter texts based on approaches taken by authors: conservatism (Emily Ruete and Edward Blyden), economic liberalism (Ottobah Cugoano, Olaodah Equiano and James Horton) and developmentalism (James Payne, Martin R. Delany and Gäbre-Heywät Baykädañ). The paper focuses on expanding on the content and diversity of this last tripartite grouping. The economic ideas of these writers largely reflect the structural conditions of their societies, their roles in practical politics, and the foreign texts and ideas they were exposed to.

The data used to reconstruct the historical narrative will be culled from primary sources – print... more The data used to reconstruct the historical narrative will be culled from primary sources – printed books, official correspondence, private letters, travelogues, official publications, newspaper articles, parliamentary debates, speeches, memoirs, prose and poetry, and pamphlets.

The bellicosity of the early modern era meant that weaker European and non-European societies fac... more The bellicosity of the early modern era meant that weaker European and non-European societies faced both wartime disruptions to trade and anti-developmental policies by the great mercantile powers. The ubiquity of war, and the economic drivers of such ubiquity, especially in the eighteenth century, stimulated various proposals for reforming the international system. However, embedded in visions of universal monarchy and confederation was free trade, with no multilateral development assistance conceptualized. Emer de Vattel, who developed some measure of thought for economic aid, did not think favourably of manufacturing and luxury, and thus did not propose economic aid for industrial development. The alternative, balance of power, adopted by the mercantilists and neo-mercantilists, acknowledged the peculiar nature of manufacturing, but also observed the rapacious monopolizing aspirations of England and other commercial powers. They thus opposed confederation and its cosmopolitan orientation, preferring alliances among small states to achieve a balance of commerce.

Paper presented at the Joint SARChI and YSI Young Scholars Conference on Structural Change and Industrial Policy in Africa, 20-21 July, 2021

The political settlements framework has emerged as a powerful tool in understanding the diversit... more The political settlements framework has emerged as a powerful tool in understanding the diversity of industrial policy outcomes across countries and within countries and sectors. In sub-Saharan Africa, many countries are characterized by more dispersed distributions of power, weak capitalist and middle classes, and weak technological capabilities of domestic firms. The general weakness of state capacity and growth-enhancing ruling coalitions has necessitated a rethinking of the state towards a conception of “extended statehood”. The corollary of this movement within the industrial policy space, and in light of political settlements insights, is a need to experiment with institutional flexibility and mandate extension of pockets of bureaucratic effectiveness, a need to study subnational variation in elaborated political settlements, and the role of international actors and forces in supporting or inciting growth-enhancing coalitions. After considering the precolonial origins of sub-Saharan political settlements, these experimental avenues within extended statehood are applied to the case of Nigeria.