Avinash Paliwal | SOAS University of London (original) (raw)

Papers by Avinash Paliwal

Journal of Global Security Studies, Jan 10, 2022

Why do states respond differently to conflict-generated migration crises across space and time? B... more Why do states respond differently to conflict-generated migration crises across space and time? Building on valuable existing literature, this article offers a new conceptual typology of “situational strategic contexts” (SSCs). It hypothesizes that the interactions between the host state&#39;s domestic-political and international-strategic priorities generate different SSCs that shape policy responses. These contexts favor either accommodation, toleration, or repatriation of migrants and are implemented with or without support from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Sensitive to the history and future ambitions of a country, this framework demonstrates how an interplay between domestic and international-strategic logics at specific historical moments influences state behavior toward conflict-generated migration. The SSC framework is developed inductively using evidence from India, a democracy in the global south, which hosts conflict-evading migrants from many neighboring countries.

Oxford Scholarship Online, 2017

The United Front’s relationship with India was anything but that of ‘dependency’. In limited in c... more The United Front’s relationship with India was anything but that of ‘dependency’. In limited in capacity and separated by geography, India was arguably the least important cog in the Iran-Russia-India triumvirate that gave covert military support to the UF. Even though the India-UF relationship withstood various Taliban and Pakistani military onslaughts, its long-term sustainability was in doubt among Indian policymakers. One incident that gave an impetus to this relationship — but also underlined its limitations — however, was the hijacking of Indian Airlines flight IC-814 in December 1999. The incident further strengthened partisans who wanted to wage an active proxy war against Pakistan and theTaliban. Occurring in the wake of nuclearization of South Asia in 1998, the India-Pakistan conflict in Kargil in 1999, and Pakistani military presence in Afghanistan, Indian diplomacy on Afghanistan in the second half of 1990s is highly indicative both of its strategic resolve and limits of...

New Directions in India's Foreign Policy

In a town-hall type address to citizens in August 2016, Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated that ... more In a town-hall type address to citizens in August 2016, Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated that India's foreign policy was all about ‘India First’. Though this can be inferred in myriad ways, the statement underlined two well-known assumptions about Indian foreign policy. First, as noted in the first such study by J. Bandyopadhyaya, Prime Ministers play a critical role in steering the direction of Indian foreign policy. This has been evident in the articulation of doctrines around the persona and political temperament of different Prime Ministers. If foreign policy ‘emerged whole from the head and heart’ of Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira and Rajiv Gandhi overshadowed, if not stepped upon, the bureaucracy in charting India's relationship with the world. More recently, terms such as Rao Doctrine, Gujral Doctrine, Manmohan Doctrine, and Modi Doctrine typify the diplomatic style and policy substance of different Indian Prime Ministers. Second, external affairs are a policy domain wherein both the Indian public and policymakers seek – and believe there exists – consensus. Even during periods of extreme political polarisation, few would disagree that India should indeed focus on ‘India First’ when it comes to international politics. For it underlines the basic tenet of political realism in an anarchic world. It can be argued that Nehru's Non-Alignment, Narasimha Rao's pragmatism and Modi's assertiveness are all manifestations of this deep realist foundation of India's foreign policy outlook. Most existing scholarly analyses of India's foreign policy revolves around these two broad facets. Be it debates around the role of institution or about the drivers of India's foreign policy, the issue is assessed by focusing on what policy output looks like rather than how it is formulated. Both India's position in the world and its shifting policy pronouncements in the context of a constantly evolving world order are aspects that have been well researched, and shall continue to elicit vibrant debate and discussion. Similar to works on other rising powers, studies on India's foreign policy address a diverse set of questions. What are the ideological underpinnings of Indian foreign policy? Does India offer a vision to the world? What is the state of India's relationships with major global powers? Why does India continue to have problems in emerging as a ‘benign’ regional power in South Asia?

Better understanding about the Afghan Taliban allowed India to advocate political reconc... more Better understanding about the Afghan Taliban allowed India to advocate political reconciliation, but also made it wary about the way NATO members — especially the UK — were going about it. This chapter explains why, despite accepting the merits of a political solution, India stiffly opposed the idea of reconciling with the Taliban at the 2010 London Conference. It explains how the partisans and conciliators debated providing lethal military equipment to Afghanistan, why they could not reach a timely decision, and how they viewed the 2014 Afghan elections and the rise of Ashraf Ghani as president of Afghanistan. Critically, the chapter shows the influence that the conciliators exerted on India's policy in 2015, (despite having a Hindu nationalist government that is staunchly opposed to holding unconditional talks with Pakistan) confidently (but not happily) accepting Ghani's diplomatic outreach to Pakistan.

Moscow's decision to militarily invade Afghanistan in December 1979, without consult... more Moscow's decision to militarily invade Afghanistan in December 1979, without consulting with New Delhi, shocked India. But even more worrisome was the impact of a haphazard Soviet withdrawal. This chapter explains how India managed these events at global, regional, and domestic levels. Ranging from Indira Gandhi's strategic balancing act between Pakistan and US on one hand and Moscow on the other, this chapter also throws light on Rajiv Gandhi's diplomacy on the Afghan question with US president Ronald Reagan and USSR premier Mikhail Gorbachev from 1985-89. India had begun to open up — covertly — to various Mujahideen factions behind the back of its stalwart Afghan ally, president Najibullah.

Modern India's diplomatic ties with Afghanistan were officially instituted in 1950. ... more Modern India's diplomatic ties with Afghanistan were officially instituted in 1950. But relations between the people of these countries are civilizational, and based on extensive cultural exchange. Starting with the impact of Rabindranath Tagore's legendary short story, <italic>Kabuliwallah</italic>, on India's imagination of Afghanistan and its people, this chapter offers a long historical view of India-Afghanistan relations. Its main focus, however, remains on British India's approach towards Afghanistan and the 1947-1979 phase when India fought three wars with Pakistan and one with China. This historical overview allows for the teasing out the aforementioned drivers of India's Afghanistan policy.

China's engagement with Afghanistan has become very crucial as the US gradually pulls out its... more China's engagement with Afghanistan has become very crucial as the US gradually pulls out its troops from the country. China has increased its investment in infrastructure projects in Afghanistan to US$1 billion from negligible amounts within a period of one year. In a departure from its economic policies with other countries, it has agreed to allow Afghan locals to work on its projects instead of sending Chinese nationals. Despite its growing economic presence, China has maintained a low profile politically but is engaging with Afghanistan at a bilateral level. It is also using multilateral forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) to address issues like terrorism, drug trafficking and money laundering that emerge from Afghanistan. Though it is still to be seen whether China would assert itself after the withdrawal of coalition forces, one thing is certain: China is very well poised in the Afghan endgame.

Withdrawal of the Western security umbrella has problematised India's current development aid... more Withdrawal of the Western security umbrella has problematised India's current development aid-led soft power approach in Afghanistan. As New Delhi debates its post-2014 policy options, this paper looks at the tensions that shape India's strategic thought in the region. The northwest frontier has traditionally defined India's territorial defence. In looking at historical debates regarding this region, this paper will highlight the impact of India's territorial construct on its strategic outlook. The Bombay and Ludhiana Schools of Indian Defence in the early nineteenth century respectively reflected advocacy of a muscular forward and a diplomatic passive policy. They formed the basis for the duallayered buffer defence system called the 'ring fence'. Developed to defend the Raj from external and internal threats, this defence system steered the transformation of frontiers into modern South Asian boundaries. India and Pakistan's inheritance of these boundarie...

Based on untapped Indian archives, this article details how Delhi built Accra’s security service ... more Based on untapped Indian archives, this article details how Delhi built Accra’s security service in 1958-61. Keen to reduce its dependency on the outgoing British colonial administration, Ghana sou...

Oxford Scholarship Online, 2017

This chapter shows how India’s Afghanistan policy witnessed an 180-degree shift in April 1991. Fa... more This chapter shows how India’s Afghanistan policy witnessed an 180-degree shift in April 1991. Far from cutting contact, Indian policymakers — dominated by conciliators — officially recognised the Mujahideen government despite the latter being dependent on Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. This shift was momentous given India’s traditional mistrust of the Afghan Islamists. The fall of Kabul to the Taliban complicated this conciliatory approach. Contrary to the arguments of existing literature, there was an undercurrent in New Delhi to engage with the Taliban. Having dealt with the Mujahideen, the conciliators were confident of finding a sympathetic audience among senior Taliban leadership, which, they argued, would protect Indian interests in Afghanistan and were not being remote-controlled by Pakistan. The partisans, however, with support from Iran and Russia, marginalized the conciliators and successfully pushed India towards backing the anti-Taliban United Front.

Contemporary South Asia, 2018

Finite-control-set model predictive current control (FCS-MPCC) has been widely investigated in th... more Finite-control-set model predictive current control (FCS-MPCC) has been widely investigated in the field of motor control. When the discrete motor prediction model is not obtained accurately, prediction error often occurs, which can result in improper determinations of optimal voltage vectors and can further affect the control performance of motor systems. However, papers evaluating the motor control performance employing FCS-MPCC rarely consider prediction error and its utilization to weaken the influence of inaccurate prediction model. This paper investigates in depth the prediction error caused by three influencing factors from the perspective of model accuracy-discretization method, prediction stepsize, and parameter mismatch. Firstly, the evaluation index, prediction error, is defined and its formulas considering the above three factors are derived based on interior permanent magnet synchronous motor (IPMSM). Then, the theoretical analysis of prediction error is provided. Finally, experimental results of an IPMSM drive system are presented to verify and complement the theoretical analysis. Both the theoretical analysis and experimental results fully elaborate the prediction error, which can offer practical guidelines for the evaluation and improvement of motor control performance, especially for FCS-MPCC in IPMSM applications.

India Review, 2019

Most studies looking at India's external policies continue to "black-box" the actual process of h... more Most studies looking at India's external policies continue to "black-box" the actual process of how Indian foreign policy is made. More specifically, most studies generally overlook how India's complex domestic polity and bureaucratic apparatus shape India's foreign policy outlook. Unlike works on India's security policy which have built from and contributed to broader academic debates, studies on India's foreign policy have failed to directly engage with concepts and theories developed by the sub-discipline of Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA). Why have these concepts and approaches not been consistently applied to the Indian context? There are various reasons for this, ranging from these disciplines' excessive reliance on Western case studies, or the lack of interest in mainstream International Relations scholarship by South Asianists (in contrast to disciplines such as economics, political theory, and developmental studies, all of which have benefited from the Indian experience). This special issue is a step towards bridging this gap and to encourage a greater dialogue between FPA and the systematic study of Indian foreign policy. Through the careful analysis of specific case studies, the different papers offer a conceptually grounded and empirically innovative reading of India's foreign policy across time, space, and themes.

ERIS – European Review of International Studies, 2019

I would like to thank the reviewers for reading, analysing, appreciating, and criticizing the boo... more I would like to thank the reviewers for reading, analysing, appreciating, and criticizing the book. Given that the reviewers are respected analysts writing on South Asian politics and have taken the trouble to author a review article of my book, I too will take the time and space to engage with it in equal sincerity. Though lengthy, this review betrays a lack of comprehension of policymaking processes, qualitative research methodologies, the arguments of the book, and, unfortunately, even misrepresents some of the finer empirical details. The result is a rather stale and unnecessary defence of India's Afghanistan policy rather than a critical review. Ideas that emphasize utmost unity of thought and practice in India's foreign policymaking community (especially vis-à-vis Afghanistan), consistency in India's foreign policy approach, and the righteousness of India's shared aspiration with Afghanistan to build a 'resilient' Afghan state, are narratives that Indian officials routinely feed analysts. This rejoinder is divided into two parts. The first tackles with points offered on theory, and the second on empirics.

Journal of Global Security Studies, Jan 10, 2022

Oxford Scholarship Online, 2017

New Directions in India's Foreign Policy

Oxford Scholarship Online, 2017

Contemporary South Asia, 2018

India Review, 2019

ERIS – European Review of International Studies, 2019