Jamal Munshi | Sonoma State University (original) (raw)

Papers by Jamal Munshi

Monthly means of Mauna Loa atmospheric CO2 concentrations are used in conjunction with surface te... more Monthly means of Mauna Loa atmospheric CO2 concentrations are used in conjunction with surface temperature data from two different sources for the sample period 1979-2017 to test the validity and reliability of the empirical Charney climate sensitivity function. Detrended correlation analysis of temperature in five global regions from two different sources did not show that surface temperature is responsive to changes in the logarithm of atmospheric CO2 at an annual time scale. Correlations observed in source data are thus shown to be spurious. We conclude that the empirical Charney Climate Sensitivity function is specious because it is based on a spurious correlation.

Homicides in England and Wales 1898-2003 are studied against the atmospheric carbon dioxide data ... more Homicides in England and Wales 1898-2003 are studied against the atmospheric carbon dioxide data for the same period. The Charney Equilibrium Sensitivity of homicides is found to be λ=1.7 thousands of additional annual homicides for each doubling of atmospheric CO2. The sensitivity estimate is supported by a strong correlation of ρ=0.95 and detrended correlation of ρ=0.86. The analysis illustrates that spurious proportionalities in time series data in conjunction with inadequate statistical rigor in the interpretation of empirical Charney climate sensitivity estimates impedes the orderly accumulation of knowledge in this line of research 1 .

Monthly means of Mauna Loa atmospheric CO2 are used in conjunction with surface temperature data ... more Monthly means of Mauna Loa atmospheric CO2 are used in conjunction with surface temperature data from two different sources for sample periods 1959-2017 and 1979-2017 to estimate observed Charney climate sensitivity (ECS) for each of twelve calendar months and five regions. Significant differences among regions and calendar months are found but with close agreement between the two temperature datasets except for land surfaces in the Northern Hemisphere. The results suggest that the Hadley Center land surface temperature reconstruction for the Northern Hemisphere contains anomalies. Other than land in the Northern Hemisphere, the observational estimates of regional mean Charney climate sensitivities are low. They range from 1.23 to 2.00 for sea surfaces, 2.32 to 2.35 for land surfaces, and 1.88 to 1.97 for all surfaces combined 1 .

It is proposed that visitation by extraterrestrial spacecraft (UFO) alters the electromagnetic pr... more It is proposed that visitation by extraterrestrial spacecraft (UFO) alters the electromagnetic properties of the earth, its atmosphere, and its oceans and that these changes can cause global warming leading to climate change and thence to the catastrophic consequences of floods, droughts, severe storms, and sea level rise. An empirical test of this theory is presented with data for UFO sightings and surface temperature reconstructions for the study period 1910-2015. The results show strong evidence of proportionality between surface temperature and cumulative UFO sightings. We conclude that the observed warming since the Industrial Revolution are due to an electromagnetic perturbation of the climate system by UFO extraterrestrial spacecraft. 1

A testable implication of the theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is the Equilibrium Cli... more A testable implication of the theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS), the coefficient of proportionality between the logarithm of atmospheric CO2 and surface temperature. This line of research has been retarded by large uncertainties in empirical estimates of the ECS. An alternative to the ECS that offers a more stable metric for AGW is the Carbon Climate Response or Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions (CCR/TCRE). It is computed as the coefficient of proportionality between cumulative fossil fuel emissions and temperature. The CCR/TCRE metric provides a direct connection from emissions to temperature without the intervening step of atmospheric accumulation. We show here that though the CCR/TCRE is stable, it has no interpretation in terms of AGW because the proportionality it describes is spurious and specious 1 .

A literature review shows that the circular reasoning fallacy is common in climate change researc... more A literature review shows that the circular reasoning fallacy is common in climate change research. It is facilitated by confirmation bias and by activism such that the prior conviction of researchers is subsumed into the methodology. Example research papers on the impact of fossil fuel emissions on tropical cyclones, on sea level rise, and on the carbon cycle demonstrate that the conclusions drawn by researchers about their anthropogenic cause derive from circular reasoning. The validity of the anthropogenic nature of global warming and climate change and that of the effectiveness of proposed measures for climate action may therefore be questioned solely on this basis 1 .

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and surface temperature reconstructions in the study period 1850-2... more Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and surface temperature reconstructions in the study period 1850-2017 are used to estimate observed equilibrium climate sensitivity. Comparison of climate sensitivities in the first and second halves of the study period and a study of climate sensitivities in a moving 60-year window show that the estimated values of climate sensitivity are unstable and unreliable and that therefore they may not contain useful information. These results are not consistent with the existence of a climate sensitivity parameter that determines surface temperature according to atmospheric CO2 concentration 1 .

The Lynn and Vanhannen study suggests that the National Average IQ of nations is an explanatory v... more The Lynn and Vanhannen study suggests that the National Average IQ of nations is an explanatory variable that can explain differences in economic productivity. However, a closer examination of their reasoning and data suggests that neither causation nor the direction of causation may be inferred from the correlation presented and that in any case, the correlation itself is spurious and an artifact of racial and socioeconomic factors.

A study of regional temperature reconstructions of the instrumental record 1850-2016 for five glo... more A study of regional temperature reconstructions of the instrumental record 1850-2016 for five global regions is presented. No evidence is found to relate warming of sea surface temperature (SST) in either hemisphere to global emissions. The rate of warming over land in the Northern Hemisphere appears to show some evidence of correlation with global emissions in five of the twelve calendar months but the statistical significance of the correlation could not be verified with station data from the region. No correlation with emissions could be found in regional temperature reconstructions for land in the Southern Hemisphere or for combined land and ocean in either hemisphere. These results taken together do not support the claim that the observed warming in surface temperatures worldwide since the Industrial Revolution is driven by fossil fuel emissions or that observed changes in tropical cyclone characteristics due to rising SST are anthropogenic.

Detrended correlation analysis of a global sea level reconstruction 1807-2010 does not show that ... more Detrended correlation analysis of a global sea level reconstruction 1807-2010 does not show that changes in the rate of sea level rise are related to the rate of fossil fuel emissions at any of the nine time scales tried. The result is checked against the measured data from sixteen locations in the Pacific and Atlantic regions of the Northern Hemisphere. No evidence could be found that observed changes in the rate of sea level rise are unnatural phenomena that can be attributed to fossil fuel emissions. These results are inconsistent with the proposition that the rate of sea level rise can be moderated by reducing emissions. It is noted that correlation is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a causal relationship between emissions and acceleration of sea level rise 1 .

Observed correlations between cumulative emissions and cumulative changes in climate variables fo... more Observed correlations between cumulative emissions and cumulative changes in climate variables form the basis of the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions (TCRE) function. The TCRE is used to make forecasts of future climate scenarios based on different emission pathways and thereby to derive their policy implications for climate action. Inaccuracies in these forecasts likely derive from a statistical weakness in the methodology used. The limitations of the TCRE are related to its reliance on correlations between cumulative values of time series data. Time series of cumulative values contain neither time scale nor degrees of freedom. Their correlations are spurious. No conclusions may be drawn from them 1 .

The IPCC carbon budget concludes that changes in atmospheric CO2 are driven by fossil fuel emissi... more The IPCC carbon budget concludes that changes in atmospheric CO2 are driven by fossil fuel emissions on a year by year basis. A testable implication of the validity of this carbon budget is that changes in atmospheric CO2 should be correlated with fossil fuel emissions at an annual time scale net of long term trends. A test of this relationship with insitu CO2 data from Mauna Loa 1958-2016 and flask CO2 data from twenty three stations around the world 1967-2015 is presented. The test fails to show that annual changes in atmospheric CO2 levels can be attributed to annual emissions. The finding is consistent with prior studies that found no evidence to relate the rate of warming to emissions and they imply that the IPCC carbon budget is flawed possibly because of insufficient attention to uncertainty, excessive reliance on net flows, and the use of circular reasoning that subsumes a role for fossil fuel emissions in the observed increase in atmospheric CO2.

Zonal monthly means of UAH satellite based measurements of lower troposphere temperature anomalie... more Zonal monthly means of UAH satellite based measurements of lower troposphere temperature anomalies 12/1978 to 4/2017 are examined for violations of the independence assumption of OLS linear regression. The Hurst Exponent (H), computed at a monthly time scale, is used as the measure of dependence. It is found that the independence assumption of OLS linear regression is violated in the UAH temperature anomaly time series. The apparent multi-decadal non-linearity found in a prior work may be related to non-linear dynamics implied by the Hurst phenomenon. The interpretation of OLS linear regression trend lines for these time series in terms of anthropogenic global warming should be made with caution, particularly so in view of the short time span of the data, because the data do not comply with OLS assumptions 1 .

Full span OLS trends in zonal means for land and ocean of UAH satellite based measurements of low... more Full span OLS trends in zonal means for land and ocean of UAH satellite based measurements of lower troposphere temperatures 12/1978 to 4/2017 are tested for reliability and their information content in the context of OLS assumptions. Resampling and Gaussian simulations do not indicate instability of full span linear OLS trends in any of the sixteen zonal regions studied. However, comparison of split half trends and trends in a moving window show evidence of nonlinear behavior in nine of the sixteen zonal regions. It is proposed that in such cases trend profiles provide greater insight and more useful trend information than full span linear OLS trends 1 .

Month by month trend analysis of more than 100 years of daily maximum (TMAX) and daily minimum (T... more Month by month trend analysis of more than 100 years of daily maximum (TMAX) and daily minimum (TMIN) temperatures from 34 USHCN stations in 17 states across the USA is presented. The results show an overall warming trend in the data that is driven primarily by warming in the nighttime measurement TMIN. The evidence of warming in the TMIN data is seen more clearly in a gradual narrowing of the diurnal range. These results are inconsistent with the usual assumption that warming trends in the USHCN instrumental record are driven by anthropogenic global warming 1 .

A month by month trend analysis of more than 100 years of daily maximum (TMAX) and daily minimum ... more A month by month trend analysis of more than 100 years of daily maximum (TMAX) and daily minimum (TMIN) temperatures from three weather stations in Australia is presented. The results show warming trends in TMIN for all twelve calendar months at all three stations with observed warming rates ranging from 0.4 o C/century to 2.3 o C/century. The TMAX data show a combination of warming trends, cooling trends, and no trends with significant differences among stations and among the calendar months so that no coherent conclusion can be drawn with respect to the long term trend in TMAX. Temperature trends in a moving 30-year window indicate that long term linear OLS trends in temperature are the residual product of violent multi-decadal cycles of warming and cooling at rates that are an order of magnitude greater. Detrended correlation analysis failed to establish a relationship between emissions and warming. The strong evidence of warming found in the TMIN data is confounded by its absence in TMAX as no theoretical basis exists for fossil fuel emissions to cause warming in TMIN and not in TMAX 1 .

A comprehensive detrended correlation analysis of the daily mean Central England Temperature (CET... more A comprehensive detrended correlation analysis of the daily mean Central England Temperature (CET) series for each calendar month against fossil fuel emissions for the 245-year study period 1772-2016 is presented. Time scales of 10, 20, and 30 years were tried each at four different time spans ranging from 60 to 245 years at all possible locations within the overall study period. The results do not show a relationship between emissions and warming that can be interpreted in terms of the theory of anthropogenic global warming and climate change (AGW). The finding is inconsistent with the proposition that warming in the CET data can be related to emissions 1 .

A month by month trend analysis at an annual time scale of the daily mean Central England Tempera... more A month by month trend analysis at an annual time scale of the daily mean Central England Temperature (CET) series 1772-2016 shows a general warming trend for most autumn and winter months. These trends are usually described in terms of anthropogenic global warming (AGW). OLS diagnostics reveal anomalies in the data having to do with asymmetry, nonlinearity, and serial Hurst dependence in the series of generational trends in a 30-year moving window. Therefore, the phenomena of nature that generated this temperature series are best understood in terms of nonlinear patterns within the sample period rather than a single linear OLS trend-line across the whole of the sample period.

A month by month trend analysis of daily maximum and daily minimum temperature data from Fort Col... more A month by month trend analysis of daily maximum and daily minimum temperature data from Fort Collins, Boulder, and Cheesman USHCN weather stations in northeastern Colorado for the period 1893-2014 is presented. The results show anomalous and incompatible patterns in long term temperature trends among the three stations that serve to question the use of the Fort Collins data as empirical evidence of global warming. The findings are consistent with questions raised by others with respect USHCN data integrity, the homogenization of incompatible station data into regional climatology, and the greater validity and information content of observational data over derived synthetic data 1 .

Month by month analysis of precipitation in England and Wales 1766-2016 is carried out at an annu... more Month by month analysis of precipitation in England and Wales 1766-2016 is carried out at an annual time scale for all twelve calendar months. No evidence of dependence, long term memory, or persistence is found. All twelve of the observed Hurst exponents of precipitation are found to be H≈0.5 indicative of Gaussian randomness. Therefore, non-periodic clusters of flood years observed in this area are more likely to be irregular cyclical phenomena of nature than effects of the Hurst phenomenon 1 .

Monthly means of Mauna Loa atmospheric CO2 concentrations are used in conjunction with surface te... more Monthly means of Mauna Loa atmospheric CO2 concentrations are used in conjunction with surface temperature data from two different sources for the sample period 1979-2017 to test the validity and reliability of the empirical Charney climate sensitivity function. Detrended correlation analysis of temperature in five global regions from two different sources did not show that surface temperature is responsive to changes in the logarithm of atmospheric CO2 at an annual time scale. Correlations observed in source data are thus shown to be spurious. We conclude that the empirical Charney Climate Sensitivity function is specious because it is based on a spurious correlation.

Homicides in England and Wales 1898-2003 are studied against the atmospheric carbon dioxide data ... more Homicides in England and Wales 1898-2003 are studied against the atmospheric carbon dioxide data for the same period. The Charney Equilibrium Sensitivity of homicides is found to be λ=1.7 thousands of additional annual homicides for each doubling of atmospheric CO2. The sensitivity estimate is supported by a strong correlation of ρ=0.95 and detrended correlation of ρ=0.86. The analysis illustrates that spurious proportionalities in time series data in conjunction with inadequate statistical rigor in the interpretation of empirical Charney climate sensitivity estimates impedes the orderly accumulation of knowledge in this line of research 1 .

Monthly means of Mauna Loa atmospheric CO2 are used in conjunction with surface temperature data ... more Monthly means of Mauna Loa atmospheric CO2 are used in conjunction with surface temperature data from two different sources for sample periods 1959-2017 and 1979-2017 to estimate observed Charney climate sensitivity (ECS) for each of twelve calendar months and five regions. Significant differences among regions and calendar months are found but with close agreement between the two temperature datasets except for land surfaces in the Northern Hemisphere. The results suggest that the Hadley Center land surface temperature reconstruction for the Northern Hemisphere contains anomalies. Other than land in the Northern Hemisphere, the observational estimates of regional mean Charney climate sensitivities are low. They range from 1.23 to 2.00 for sea surfaces, 2.32 to 2.35 for land surfaces, and 1.88 to 1.97 for all surfaces combined 1 .

It is proposed that visitation by extraterrestrial spacecraft (UFO) alters the electromagnetic pr... more It is proposed that visitation by extraterrestrial spacecraft (UFO) alters the electromagnetic properties of the earth, its atmosphere, and its oceans and that these changes can cause global warming leading to climate change and thence to the catastrophic consequences of floods, droughts, severe storms, and sea level rise. An empirical test of this theory is presented with data for UFO sightings and surface temperature reconstructions for the study period 1910-2015. The results show strong evidence of proportionality between surface temperature and cumulative UFO sightings. We conclude that the observed warming since the Industrial Revolution are due to an electromagnetic perturbation of the climate system by UFO extraterrestrial spacecraft. 1

A testable implication of the theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is the Equilibrium Cli... more A testable implication of the theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS), the coefficient of proportionality between the logarithm of atmospheric CO2 and surface temperature. This line of research has been retarded by large uncertainties in empirical estimates of the ECS. An alternative to the ECS that offers a more stable metric for AGW is the Carbon Climate Response or Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions (CCR/TCRE). It is computed as the coefficient of proportionality between cumulative fossil fuel emissions and temperature. The CCR/TCRE metric provides a direct connection from emissions to temperature without the intervening step of atmospheric accumulation. We show here that though the CCR/TCRE is stable, it has no interpretation in terms of AGW because the proportionality it describes is spurious and specious 1 .

A literature review shows that the circular reasoning fallacy is common in climate change researc... more A literature review shows that the circular reasoning fallacy is common in climate change research. It is facilitated by confirmation bias and by activism such that the prior conviction of researchers is subsumed into the methodology. Example research papers on the impact of fossil fuel emissions on tropical cyclones, on sea level rise, and on the carbon cycle demonstrate that the conclusions drawn by researchers about their anthropogenic cause derive from circular reasoning. The validity of the anthropogenic nature of global warming and climate change and that of the effectiveness of proposed measures for climate action may therefore be questioned solely on this basis 1 .

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and surface temperature reconstructions in the study period 1850-2... more Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and surface temperature reconstructions in the study period 1850-2017 are used to estimate observed equilibrium climate sensitivity. Comparison of climate sensitivities in the first and second halves of the study period and a study of climate sensitivities in a moving 60-year window show that the estimated values of climate sensitivity are unstable and unreliable and that therefore they may not contain useful information. These results are not consistent with the existence of a climate sensitivity parameter that determines surface temperature according to atmospheric CO2 concentration 1 .

The Lynn and Vanhannen study suggests that the National Average IQ of nations is an explanatory v... more The Lynn and Vanhannen study suggests that the National Average IQ of nations is an explanatory variable that can explain differences in economic productivity. However, a closer examination of their reasoning and data suggests that neither causation nor the direction of causation may be inferred from the correlation presented and that in any case, the correlation itself is spurious and an artifact of racial and socioeconomic factors.

A study of regional temperature reconstructions of the instrumental record 1850-2016 for five glo... more A study of regional temperature reconstructions of the instrumental record 1850-2016 for five global regions is presented. No evidence is found to relate warming of sea surface temperature (SST) in either hemisphere to global emissions. The rate of warming over land in the Northern Hemisphere appears to show some evidence of correlation with global emissions in five of the twelve calendar months but the statistical significance of the correlation could not be verified with station data from the region. No correlation with emissions could be found in regional temperature reconstructions for land in the Southern Hemisphere or for combined land and ocean in either hemisphere. These results taken together do not support the claim that the observed warming in surface temperatures worldwide since the Industrial Revolution is driven by fossil fuel emissions or that observed changes in tropical cyclone characteristics due to rising SST are anthropogenic.

Detrended correlation analysis of a global sea level reconstruction 1807-2010 does not show that ... more Detrended correlation analysis of a global sea level reconstruction 1807-2010 does not show that changes in the rate of sea level rise are related to the rate of fossil fuel emissions at any of the nine time scales tried. The result is checked against the measured data from sixteen locations in the Pacific and Atlantic regions of the Northern Hemisphere. No evidence could be found that observed changes in the rate of sea level rise are unnatural phenomena that can be attributed to fossil fuel emissions. These results are inconsistent with the proposition that the rate of sea level rise can be moderated by reducing emissions. It is noted that correlation is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a causal relationship between emissions and acceleration of sea level rise 1 .

Observed correlations between cumulative emissions and cumulative changes in climate variables fo... more Observed correlations between cumulative emissions and cumulative changes in climate variables form the basis of the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions (TCRE) function. The TCRE is used to make forecasts of future climate scenarios based on different emission pathways and thereby to derive their policy implications for climate action. Inaccuracies in these forecasts likely derive from a statistical weakness in the methodology used. The limitations of the TCRE are related to its reliance on correlations between cumulative values of time series data. Time series of cumulative values contain neither time scale nor degrees of freedom. Their correlations are spurious. No conclusions may be drawn from them 1 .

The IPCC carbon budget concludes that changes in atmospheric CO2 are driven by fossil fuel emissi... more The IPCC carbon budget concludes that changes in atmospheric CO2 are driven by fossil fuel emissions on a year by year basis. A testable implication of the validity of this carbon budget is that changes in atmospheric CO2 should be correlated with fossil fuel emissions at an annual time scale net of long term trends. A test of this relationship with insitu CO2 data from Mauna Loa 1958-2016 and flask CO2 data from twenty three stations around the world 1967-2015 is presented. The test fails to show that annual changes in atmospheric CO2 levels can be attributed to annual emissions. The finding is consistent with prior studies that found no evidence to relate the rate of warming to emissions and they imply that the IPCC carbon budget is flawed possibly because of insufficient attention to uncertainty, excessive reliance on net flows, and the use of circular reasoning that subsumes a role for fossil fuel emissions in the observed increase in atmospheric CO2.

Zonal monthly means of UAH satellite based measurements of lower troposphere temperature anomalie... more Zonal monthly means of UAH satellite based measurements of lower troposphere temperature anomalies 12/1978 to 4/2017 are examined for violations of the independence assumption of OLS linear regression. The Hurst Exponent (H), computed at a monthly time scale, is used as the measure of dependence. It is found that the independence assumption of OLS linear regression is violated in the UAH temperature anomaly time series. The apparent multi-decadal non-linearity found in a prior work may be related to non-linear dynamics implied by the Hurst phenomenon. The interpretation of OLS linear regression trend lines for these time series in terms of anthropogenic global warming should be made with caution, particularly so in view of the short time span of the data, because the data do not comply with OLS assumptions 1 .

Full span OLS trends in zonal means for land and ocean of UAH satellite based measurements of low... more Full span OLS trends in zonal means for land and ocean of UAH satellite based measurements of lower troposphere temperatures 12/1978 to 4/2017 are tested for reliability and their information content in the context of OLS assumptions. Resampling and Gaussian simulations do not indicate instability of full span linear OLS trends in any of the sixteen zonal regions studied. However, comparison of split half trends and trends in a moving window show evidence of nonlinear behavior in nine of the sixteen zonal regions. It is proposed that in such cases trend profiles provide greater insight and more useful trend information than full span linear OLS trends 1 .

Month by month trend analysis of more than 100 years of daily maximum (TMAX) and daily minimum (T... more Month by month trend analysis of more than 100 years of daily maximum (TMAX) and daily minimum (TMIN) temperatures from 34 USHCN stations in 17 states across the USA is presented. The results show an overall warming trend in the data that is driven primarily by warming in the nighttime measurement TMIN. The evidence of warming in the TMIN data is seen more clearly in a gradual narrowing of the diurnal range. These results are inconsistent with the usual assumption that warming trends in the USHCN instrumental record are driven by anthropogenic global warming 1 .

A month by month trend analysis of more than 100 years of daily maximum (TMAX) and daily minimum ... more A month by month trend analysis of more than 100 years of daily maximum (TMAX) and daily minimum (TMIN) temperatures from three weather stations in Australia is presented. The results show warming trends in TMIN for all twelve calendar months at all three stations with observed warming rates ranging from 0.4 o C/century to 2.3 o C/century. The TMAX data show a combination of warming trends, cooling trends, and no trends with significant differences among stations and among the calendar months so that no coherent conclusion can be drawn with respect to the long term trend in TMAX. Temperature trends in a moving 30-year window indicate that long term linear OLS trends in temperature are the residual product of violent multi-decadal cycles of warming and cooling at rates that are an order of magnitude greater. Detrended correlation analysis failed to establish a relationship between emissions and warming. The strong evidence of warming found in the TMIN data is confounded by its absence in TMAX as no theoretical basis exists for fossil fuel emissions to cause warming in TMIN and not in TMAX 1 .

A comprehensive detrended correlation analysis of the daily mean Central England Temperature (CET... more A comprehensive detrended correlation analysis of the daily mean Central England Temperature (CET) series for each calendar month against fossil fuel emissions for the 245-year study period 1772-2016 is presented. Time scales of 10, 20, and 30 years were tried each at four different time spans ranging from 60 to 245 years at all possible locations within the overall study period. The results do not show a relationship between emissions and warming that can be interpreted in terms of the theory of anthropogenic global warming and climate change (AGW). The finding is inconsistent with the proposition that warming in the CET data can be related to emissions 1 .

A month by month trend analysis at an annual time scale of the daily mean Central England Tempera... more A month by month trend analysis at an annual time scale of the daily mean Central England Temperature (CET) series 1772-2016 shows a general warming trend for most autumn and winter months. These trends are usually described in terms of anthropogenic global warming (AGW). OLS diagnostics reveal anomalies in the data having to do with asymmetry, nonlinearity, and serial Hurst dependence in the series of generational trends in a 30-year moving window. Therefore, the phenomena of nature that generated this temperature series are best understood in terms of nonlinear patterns within the sample period rather than a single linear OLS trend-line across the whole of the sample period.

A month by month trend analysis of daily maximum and daily minimum temperature data from Fort Col... more A month by month trend analysis of daily maximum and daily minimum temperature data from Fort Collins, Boulder, and Cheesman USHCN weather stations in northeastern Colorado for the period 1893-2014 is presented. The results show anomalous and incompatible patterns in long term temperature trends among the three stations that serve to question the use of the Fort Collins data as empirical evidence of global warming. The findings are consistent with questions raised by others with respect USHCN data integrity, the homogenization of incompatible station data into regional climatology, and the greater validity and information content of observational data over derived synthetic data 1 .

Month by month analysis of precipitation in England and Wales 1766-2016 is carried out at an annu... more Month by month analysis of precipitation in England and Wales 1766-2016 is carried out at an annual time scale for all twelve calendar months. No evidence of dependence, long term memory, or persistence is found. All twelve of the observed Hurst exponents of precipitation are found to be H≈0.5 indicative of Gaussian randomness. Therefore, non-periodic clusters of flood years observed in this area are more likely to be irregular cyclical phenomena of nature than effects of the Hurst phenomenon 1 .

Detrended correlation analysis of global mean temperature observations and model projections are ... more Detrended correlation analysis of global mean temperature observations and model projections are compared in a test for the theory that surface temperature is responsive to atmospheric CO2 concentration in terms of GHG forcing of surface temperature implied by the Climate Sensitivity parameter ECS. The test shows strong evidence of GHG forcing of warming in the theoretical RCP8.5 temperature projections made with CMIP5 forcings. However, no evidence of GHG forcing by CO2 is found in observational temperatures from four sources including two from satellite measurements. The test period is set to 1979-2018 so that satellite data can be included on a comparable basis. No empirical evidence is found in these data for a climate sensitivity parameter that determines surface temperature according to atmospheric CO2 concentration or for the proposition that reductions in fossil fuel emissions will moderate the rate of warming. 1

Climate models predict that rising atmospheric CO2 will simultaneously warm the troposphere and c... more Climate models predict that rising atmospheric CO2 will simultaneously warm the troposphere and cool the stratosphere. This combination of tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling is found in the observational data over a period of rising atmospheric CO2. Although strong correlations between these time series are found in the source data, the correlations do not survive into the detrended series at annual or five-year time scales. The absence of detrended correlation implies that the correlations seen in the source data derive from shared trends and not from responsiveness at annual or five-year time scales. The results are inconsistent with the theory that rising atmospheric CO2 simultaneously warms the troposphere and cools the lower stratosphere. 1

It is standard procedure in the study of global warming to deseasonalize the temperature time ser... more It is standard procedure in the study of global warming to deseasonalize the temperature time series monthly means into monthly " temperature anomalies " by subtracting the corresponding monthly mean temperatures in a reference period. This procedure contains the assumption that the seasonal cycle is fixed and unchanging. This assumption is found to be invalid because the source data from measurement stations show that long term trends in the twelve calendar months are not uniform. An alternative procedure is proposed for the study of warming trends net of the seasonal cycle that involves the study of the calendar months separately using a " trend profile " tool to investigate trends within the full span. The proposed methodology is robust to the changes in the seasonal cycle 1 .

Satellite radiometry and visual imagery of Arctic sea ice since 1979 have allowed us to track its... more Satellite radiometry and visual imagery of Arctic sea ice since 1979 have allowed us to track its dramatic seasonal cycle in which 70% of the March maximum sea ice area is gone by September. This extreme seasonal cycle is taken to imply that Arctic sea ice area is sensitive to ambient temperature. The satellite data also show a long term year to year decline in Arctic sea ice in every season concurrent with global warming. This concurrence has led to the assumption that the observed long term decline in sea ice is a response to global warming. This study is a test of that hypothesis. Arctic sea ice data for each calendar month are tested for the responsiveness of sea ice area to global warming at annual and five-year time scales using detrended correlation analysis. Satellite measurements of lower troposphere temperature over the north polar region are used as the relevant measure of global warming. It is found that of the twelve calendar months only two contain both statistically significant sea ice loss and statistically significant correlation of the rate of sea ice loss with global warming. These results do not constitute convincing evidence of correlation required to support the assumption that sea ice decline is driven by global warming. It is likely that the observed loss in sea ice area is a more complex phenomenon possibly with roles for winds, ocean currents, geothermal heat, and natural multidecadal variability of ocean characteristics not measured and not fully understood. Global warming may play a role in what may be a complex multivariate phenomenon but the data do not show that global warming drives year to year changes in Arctic sea ice area or that the decline can be halted or moderated by taking climate action.