2024 Worlds Previews: SwimSwam Guesses at the Men's Relays 🤷 (original) (raw)

Braden Keith

by Braden Keith 37

February 06th, 2024 Asia, Australia, Brazil, Latin America & Caribbean, Britain, Europe, International, National, New Zealand and Oceania, News

2024 WORLD AQUATIC CHAMPIONSHIPS

• February 11th – February 18th (pool swimming)
• Doha, Qatar
• LCM (50m)
• Meet Central
• SwimSwam Preview Index
• Official Entries

In the strangest World Championships in several generations, we’re going to do our best to pick the medalists and finalists for the 2024 World Championships. It’s going to be weird. There are going to be swimmers in finals that most of us have never heard of. We’re going to miss someone obvious who we didn’t expect to race, and someone’s going to accidentally go full-taper and cost themselves an Olympic qualifying spot a week later. The list at the top is as valuable as the list at the bottom.

Of all the wild things that are going to happen at these World Championships, the relays might be the wildest. A number of countries have not brought their full rosters, but are still entered to swim relays with whatever they can mush together from swimmers who are present.

We’re expecting a lot of scratches, and a lot of unpredictable relays, so we’re going to approach these events a little differently and just pick top 4s, based on the best relays we can figure out, on paper.

They’re almost definitely going to be wrong, but it’s going to be fun anyway.

Men’s 400 Free Relay

On paper, I thought this would be a runaway for the Brits, who are bringing their full relay to this meet almost-explicitly for the purpose of locking up their qualification for the Paris Olympic Games.

The British men were DQ’ed in prelims of last year’s World Championships, meaning they earned neither an automatic slot by being a top three team nor one of the provisional 13 slots-per-relay that are awarded based on the best times from the combination of the 2023 and 2024 World Championships.

A 3:14-low would be pretty safe for any relay to qualify for Paris, and that’s averaging 48.5. While this British quartet can swim 3:13s in their sleep, they’ll need safe starts as well, so I’m sure they’ll be targeting an amount of rest that puts them well into the 3:13 range (which shouldn’t be tough, given that they just need a little drop taper for a one day meet rather than a full taper to be good for an eight day extravagance).

After that, things get really interesting. A breakdown on the top contenders and some other interesting quartets.

Australia

Isaac Cooper could go in here too, he was a 49.67 flat-start best time back in December 2021, and was 49.75 in December at the Queensland Championships. I suspect that he’s got better than Elijah Winnington‘s flat-start best of 49.34 in him.

Offset that by the fact that Cam McEvoy swam 47.04 back in 2016, when he was a 100-200 freestyler, and has now transitioned to more of a 50 guy. Given how good that 50 was last year, have to expect he’s still got at least a 47-low in him, though his best time since his comeback, from December 2023, is 49.21.

Italy

Thomas Ceccon’s finger injury keeps this relay from being the gold medal favorites, though Miressi and Zazzeri at least give them half of their “A” relay. Deplano, only swimming the 50 individually (and a medal contender in that race), is the key leg in this one. This relay comes on day 1 of the meet, while the 50 individual comes on days 6/7.

Great Britain

While I don’t expect a 3:10 out of them, I think they take the safe road and ensure the relay’s spot for Paris with a bit of a drop taper. They have some legs to get them through prelims if they want it. SAFE STARTS!

China

Pan is the best 100 freestyler in this field, and the Chinese have three dynamite legs. Can they find a 4th to round it out? If so, they seem like the best bet to challenge the Brits. I’m sure there’s someone on that roster who can be better than a 50.34 in the 100 free (maybe even Wang, who is still a teenager and swam his 50.34 at last year’s World Junior Championships).

USA

I think this addup probably underestimates the US relay. Specifically Carson Foster, who swam the personal best listed below at the Knoxville Pro Swim three weeks ago. He’s been 1:45.5 in the 200 free long course, and was 43.61 in the 100 yard free in high school.

I’m almost positive that he’s capable of a 48-low in the 100 free in long course.

The Americans lack that 47-mid or 47-low to be favorites (on paper), though it seems like Casas is always one good meet away from a number like that.

South Korea

The South Koreans didn’t use Hwang Sun-woo in prelims at World Championships last year, and the consequence was a 17th-place finish in a 3:16.15. Pending what happens next week in Doha, that makes them currently the first team out of Olympic qualifying.

With a full-taper and Hwang on the relay, this team can get to the 3:14 it will probably take to swim at the Olympic Games, and as much as anyone listed above, they’ve got the motivation and the flexibility to go after that full-taper result.

SwimSwam Picks

1. Great Britain
2. Italy
3. Australia
4. USA

Men’s 4×100 Medley Relay

No Great Britain in this relay, even with their ace-in-the-hole Adam Peaty on the roster.

The teams from China and Australia have big names but they’ll all have to do a little wiggling to make things fit. Italy, on the other hand, has the most clear-cut relay, and even without its biggest name, Thomas Ceccon, is a favorite because of the gaps in the other relays (though we might find out some unexpected talents at this meet).

The USA is a mix of both. They have a lot of options, and really good ones. This should be the best American relay of the meet for either gender.

Australia

I looked at a lot of options for the butterfly leg. I’m sure Isaac Cooper is better than his best time of 56.84 from when he was 16, but I don’t know how much better.

I couldn’t find a better option on paper than Winnington (aside from Cam McEvoy, who was 53.84 back in 2016), so this is what I pulled together. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a surprise butterfly leg from someone, or a scratch altogether from this relay.

USA

The USA, on paper, has the best relay, the most complete relay, and the most options to play with once they figure out who is performing well (the men’s 400 medley relay is at the end of the meet).

Michael Andrew could take over the breaststroke or butterfly legs, Shaine Casas could move to backstroke or freestyle, and Hunter Armstrong or probably Carson Foster could anchor if King is off-beat.

China

Another relay where there’s a head-scratching leg. 17-year-old Xu Yifan is only entered in the 50 back individually, and China has no entries in the 100 back. His 25.97 from December in the 50 back makes you think this is a medal-worthy relay, right? The day before that 50 back he was 57.66 in the 100 back.

Explain that one.

If he can go a 54-something (which doesn’t seem like a huge ask for a guy who can go 25.97 in the 50), this relay could win a medal.

Italy

Italy’s advantage is a complete relay with one of the best breaststrokers in the field and a dynamite anchor in Miressi. The backstroke leg (Michele Lamberti) and butterfly leg (Gianmarco Sansome) are kind of question marks, but those are also their two youngest legs so there’s room for growth.

Spain

Just for good measure, the Spanish relay looks pretty decent, especially with this being an Olympic qualifying meet for them as individuals. Carles Coll Marti is the weak link on this relay, but he went 51.50 in the 100 yard breaststroke over the weekend, indicating that he’s descending into these World Championships to try and grab his spot at the Olympic Games.

If China doesn’t figure out their backstroke leg, and Australia scratches (or doesn’t figure out their butterfly leg), Spain is there to pounce on a medal.

SwimSwam Picks:

1. USA
2. Italy
3. China
4. Australia (scratch?)
5. Spain

Men’s 800 Free Relay

Great Britain are the defending World Champions in the 800 free relay, and all of the swimmers from that relay are entered in this meet, so they’re an obvious pick here – if they all swim. Seems like Dean isn’t going to hang around after the 400 free relay on day 1. But still, swapping in one of the Litchfield brothers makes Great Britain still a huge favorite.

Great Britain

Britain’s 200 free group is deep. Even with no Tom Dean, they’re heavy favorites. Max Litchfield (1:47.32) is an option here too if someone else doesn’t want to go.

USA

The US has half of their silver medal relay from last year’s World Championships at this meet in Carson Foster and Luke Hobson. That’s a good start. One more strong leg and I’d probably have them in for silver. Zach Harting has been 1:49.52, so that’s another option here.

If there’s a relay that the US is going to scratch, this seems like it. I can’t imagine that Casas is going to want to swim all three individual events, three men’s relay, and a mixed relay or two.

South Korea

This is a pretty-complete South Korean relay and might represent their best chance ever at an Olympic relay medal if they can pull it together at the same time. Note that Yang Jae-hoon has been 1:46.83 on a flat-start, though he had a tough swim at Worlds last year.

Note the difference for comparison, the splits below are South Korea’s actual 800 free relay split from Worlds last summer, where they finished in 6th place.

Australia

Bradley Woodward hasn’t swum a 200 free in long course since November 2019, when he swam a best time of 1:50.82. He’s dropped half-a-second in his 200 back in that same time frame, so presume that he has something a little better in him here. This one’s tough, because Australia has three really good legs and some other really good swimmers on their roster. Maybe they’ve got something creative to fill this one out.

China

China has four good legs on this relay, including the star Pan who is in contention for individual gold both in Doha and Paris in the 200 free.

Italy

Given Alberto Razzetti’s progression in the 200 IM recently, seems like he should be able to shave some tenths off his best time. The same goes for Manuel Frigo, who swam his best 200 free at a meet where he was a bit off his best in the 100 free, his best event.

Brazil

Brazil brought only four men individually to Doha, and have only one men’s relay entered. That indicates that they’re probably going to swim it – even though their spot in Paris is probably safe for this relay.

They did also bring a relay-only swimmer in Eduardo Moraes, who has been 1:48.48. If this group is fully-firing, they could land in the medals. Brazil is no longer only a sprinting nation.

SwimSwam Picks:

1. Great Britain
2. South Korea
3. USA
4. Australia
5. Brazil
6. Italy

In This Story

• Alessandro Miressi

Alessandro Miressi

• Carson Foster

Carson Foster

• Duncan Scott

Duncan Scott

• Jack Cartwright

Jack Cartwright

• Kai Taylor

Kai Taylor

• Leonardo Deplano

Leonardo Deplano

• Lorenzo Zazzeri

Lorenzo Zazzeri

• Luke Hobson

Luke Hobson

• Manuel Frigo

Manuel Frigo

• Matt King

Matt King

• Pan Zhanle

Pan Zhanle

• Shaine Casas

Shaine Casas

• Tom Dean

Tom Dean

About Braden Keith

Braden Keith

Braden Keith is the Editor-in-Chief and a co-founder/co-owner of SwimSwam.com. He first got his feet wet by building The Swimmers' Circle beginning in January 2010, and now comes to SwimSwam to use that experience and help build a new leader in the sport of swimming. Aside from his life on the InterWet, …

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