Revisiting NCAA Recruit Rankings: Women's High School Class of 2015 (original) (raw)

A loaded women's high school class of 2015 featured four 2016 U.S. Olympians and several more 2020 frontrunners. But who turned out to be the highest-scoring athlete in NCAA competition? Archive photo via Mike Lewis/Ola Vista Photography

Each summer, college swimming fans look forward to recruiting – the lifeblood of any NCAA swim program. Since 2012, we’ve been ranking down the top NCAA prospects in the nation from each recruiting class. But sports are inherently unpredictable, and even the most sure-fire prospect can go awry or completely change their role over four years.

As we do each year, we’ll look back at the high school class of 2014, which just finished four years of college eligibility this spring.

First, a few notes:

Most of the data we’re tracking here deals with NCAA scoring. Obviously, some swimmers are great assets for their teams in dual meets and conference competition without ever being national factors. While we don’t discount the impact of those types of swimmers, the difference in competition between various teams’ dual meet schedules and conference meets makes NCAA scoring the best “apples to apples” comparisons between swimmers.
Relays are another point of contention, as a swimmer in a strong program has more opportunity for NCAA relays, though they also have more competition for those relay spots. We’ve mostly left relay results out of the data below, except where specifically indicated. That, too, gives us a more fair comparison between athletes.
We also did not include diving scorers or recruits.
We did our best to scour NCAA results over the past four years, but it’s certainly possible we made a mistake in compiling our data. If you spot an error, please respectfully let us know in the comment section so we can update our work!

We only include domestic recruits in our recruit rankings, as it’s often harder to predict if and when an international recruit will join the NCAA, and which class they should be ranked with. However, we’ve gone back through and tallied up all individual scorers that roughly fit into this class – international and domestic.

Revisiting Our Top 10

Check out this post for our analysis of the top 10 recruits in the high school class of 2015. Bear in mind that this was posted in July of 2014, when these swimmers were high school juniors. Complaining about slighted swimmers is barely a scrap above useless at the time of posting, and putting on Captain Hindsight goggles and complaining now without looking up best times from July 2014 is even less enlightening than that.

Here’s a look at our top 10 recruits, plus how many individual points they scored at NCAAs in each of their four years:

Rank	Name	College Team	Total NCAA Points	2016 NCAA Points	2017 NCAA Points	2018 NCAA Points	2019 NCAA Points
1	Katie Ledecky	Stanford	115.5	—	58.5	57	—
2	Abbey Weitzeil	Cal	106	—	25	31	50
3	Kathleen Baker	Cal	138	25	60	53	—
4	Katie McLaughlin	Cal	108	0	26	39	43
5	Amy Bilquist	Cal	111	29	12	27	43
6	Ella Eastin	Stanford	228	57	57	60	54
7	Quinn Carrozza	Texas	3	0	no invite	3	0
8	Taylor Garcia	Arizona/Michigan	0	0	0	0	0
9	Lilly King	Indiana	163	40	40	43	40
10	Nora McCullagh	Texas	0	no invite	0	0	0
11	Aly Tetzloff	Auburn	56.5	0	0	30.5	26
12	Sonia Wang	Harvard	0	0	no invite	0	—
13	Katrina Konopka	Arizona	5.5	0	3.5	2	0
14	Riley Scott	USC	18	5	4	9	0
15	Caroline McTaggart	UCLA	0	0	no invite	0	—
16	Megan Moroney	Virginia	44	12	redshirt	19	13
17	Daniela Georges	Arizona	0	0	0	0	0
18	Sydney Lofquist	USC/Wisconsin	0	no invite	no invite	0	0
19	Leah Stevens	Stanford	50	0	21	14	15
20	Maddie Wright	USC	40	0	14	13	13

Weitzeil (deferred enrollment) and Moroney (redshirt) still have one more year of eligibility remaining.

In a particularly loaded class of high school recruits, the top point-scorer after four years is actually #6 recruit Ella Eastin. She’s also one of only two swimmers in our top 6 who swam at NCAAs all four years – the others missed due to redshirts, turning pro early or in one case, injury.
#1 prospect Katie Ledecky only scored the fourth-most points of this class, but I think you’d still be hard-pressed to find a college coach who wouldn’t have put her #1 back in 2014. She averaged just over 57 points a year – that’s the equivalent of two wins and a second-place individually each year. She was fourth overall in points in this class, and only swam two NCAA seasons.
At the time, we billed this top 6 as an absolutely elite bunch, and they held up. The top three all made the 2016 U.S. Olympic team, and the next three were all relatively close.
#9 Lilly King scored the second-most points of this ranked bunch (though one unranked recruit and one international did outscore her), showing the value of a truly dominant one-stroke specialist. King scored 40 points in three of her four seasons, winning both the 100 and 200 breast. She scored one year in the 200 IM. And her relay impact was bigger than most, as her splits were so far ahead of the field that she single-handedly jumped her relays into the NCAA’s elite tier.
This turned out to be a top-heavy class, because after the top 6, things got much more hit-or-miss with the ranked crew. 6 of the remaining 14 swimmers scored zero NCAA points over their careers, and two more scored less than 10. But most of those non-scorers were still either NCAA participants or solid contributors at the conference level. Caroline McTaggart looked on the verge of busting out before injuries and surgeries derailed her career.
That pretty well confirms what we’re finding out the more we revisit past recruit rankings: a top 20 ranking is no guarantee of success, and certainly swimmers from outside the top 20 find their way into the nation’s top scorers. But typically, the very elite high school prospects to go on to be the very elite collegiate swimmers. And in the grand scheme of things, a top-20 recruit has a much higher likelihood of being an NCAA scorer than a less-accomplished prospect with a great improvement curve.

Other Impactful Recruits in the High School Recruiting Class of 2015

Of course, not every contributor comes from our top 20 list. Some swimmers develop extremely well in college. Some swimmers slip under our radar, or don’t really show their ability until their senior year of high school, after our rankings come out.

We dug through NCAA results to find the best American swimmers from this class to not appear on our top 10 list. Again, it’s not always easy to account for redshirt years, gap years or mistakes in an athlete’s listed class each season. So if we forgot anyone, respectfully let us know in the comments.

Domestic

Name	College Team	Total NCAA Points	2016 NCAA Points	2017 NCAA Points	2018 NCAA Points	2019 NCAA Points
Mallory Comerford	Louisville	170.5	28	49.5	37	56
Miranda Tucker	Indiana/Michigan	77	33	—	32	12
Ally McHugh	Penn State	63	10	26	27
Emma Barksdale	South Carolina	57.5	4	11	42.5
Annie Ochitwa	Arizona/Missouri	39	12	11	16
Delaney Duncan	Eastern Michigan	38	3	18	17
Catie Deloof	Michigan	37	6	31
Kirsten Vose	USC	33	27	2	redshirt	4
Elise Haan	FGCU/NC State	22	1	4	16	1
Chantal Nack	Minnesota	21.5	21.5
Maddie Banic	Tennessee	19	13	2	4
Claire Rasmus	Texas A&M	18.5	1	13	4.5
Geena Freriks	Kentucky	15	9	6
Erin Falconer	Auburn	13	4	9
Kim Williams	Stanford	7	4	3
Bailey Nero	Auburn	7	7
Rachel Munson	Minnesota	5	5
Sophie Cattermole	Louisville	5	5
Elizabeth Stinson	USC	4	4
Courtney Caldwell	NC State/USC	4	4
Rachael Bradford-Feldman	Louisville	4	0	4
Anna Jahns	NC State	3	3
Mackenzie Rumrill	Arizona	3	3
Alice Treuth	Notre Dame	1	1
Nikki Smith	Notre Dame	1	1
Lauren Barber	Navy	1	1
Kathryn Painter	Kentucky	1	1
Christie Jensen	Indiana	1	1

This is usually a fun section because we get to pull out some insane time progressions from high school to college. Case in point: Mallory Comerford, who was 50.1/1:47.6/4:53 in freestyle out of high school and just 54.6 in the 100 fly. (For reference, #20 on our ranked recruiting list was 4:46 in free and 53.1 in fly at the time). Comerford finished at 46.2/1:39.8/4:34.6 and 50.9 in fly, scoring more points than anybody else in the class besides Eastin and one international.
Nobody else in this list ultimately cracked 100 points, but Michigan’s Miranda Tucker could get there next year – she transferred from Indiana after her freshman year and sat out a season.
Penn State’s Ally McHugh closed her career hard, going from 10 career points scored after her sophomore year to 63 total points after her senior year.
USC’s Kirsten Vose was one of the top scorers in this class as a freshman, but only scored 6 more points over her next three years after scoring 27 as a rookie. She does have one year remaining after a junior year redshirt.
The inverse is South Carolina’s Emma Barksdale, a good example of why it’s hard to judge recruits after one NCAA season. When we ranked these recruits, Barksdale was 2:01/4:18 in the IMs and 2:20 in the 200 breast, not even close to the conversation for our top 20 ranks. By her senior year of high school, she’d cut to 2:00/4:12 and 2:13, and then her freshman year, she was 1:58/4:10 and 2:12. But she didn’t score until her sophomore year, and scored almost three-quarters of her points in her senior season, when she was 1:53/4:01 and 2:06.

International

Name	College Team	Total NCAA Points	2016 NCAA Points	2017 NCAA Points	2018 NCAA Points	2019 NCAA Points
Sydney Pickrem	Texas A&M	172	27	47	48	50
Siobhan Haughey	Michigan	126	25	28	41	32
Rose Bi	Michigan	95	30	14	6	45
Bailey Andison	Denver/Indiana	72	10	18	20	24
Joanna Evans	Texas	18	17	0	1
Jamie Zhen Yeung	Michigan	7	7
Alina Kendzior	Louisville	6	2	4
Monika Gonzalez-Hermosillo	Texas A&M	4	2	0	2
Justine Macfarland	Alabama	3	1	2
Laura Morley	Indiana	3	3

Canadian Sydney Pickrem was the big international scorer of the class, putting up between 47 and 50 points in each of her final three seasons to finish third in the class in individual points.
Michigan’s duo of Siobhan Haughey and Rose Bi scored in all four years, as did Bailey Andison, a Canadian who transferred from Denver to Indiana in her senior year.
This is a pretty good international class at the top, but a smaller and thinner class than most years. 9 internationals scored out of this class, compared to 14 with last year’s senior class. Already, 9 individual international swimmers have scored in the current junior class, with one more year to go.

All Individual Scorers In the Class:

(Ranked recruits are listed with their 2014 rank. International recruits are listed with “INTL” and unranked recruits with “UNR.”)

Final Rank	2014 Rank	Name	College Team	Total NCAA Points	2016 NCAA Points	2017 NCAA Points	2018 NCAA Points	2019 NCAA Points
1	6	Ella Eastin	Stanford	228	57	57	60	54
2	INTL	Sydney Pickrem	Texas A&M	172	27	47	48	50
3	UNR	Mallory Comerford	Louisville	170.5	28	49.5	37	56
4	9	Lilly King	Indiana	163	40	40	43	40
5	3	Kathleen Baker	Cal	138	25	60	53	—
6	INTL	Siobhan Haughey	Michigan	126	25	28	41	32
7	1	Katie Ledecky	Stanford	115.5	—	58.5	57	—
8	5	Amy Bilquist	Cal	111	29	12	27	43
9	4	Katie McLaughlin	Cal	108	0	26	39	43
10	2	Abbey Weitzeil	Cal	106	—	25	31	50
11	INTL	Rose Bi	Michigan	95	30	14	6	45
12	UNR	Miranda Tucker	Indiana/Michigan	77	33	—	32	12
13	INTL	Bailey Andison	Denver/Indiana	72	10	18	20	24
14	UNR	Ally McHugh	Penn State	63	10	26	27
15	UNR	Emma Barksdale	South Carolina	57.5	4	11	42.5
16	11	Aly Tetzloff	Auburn	56.5	0	0	30.5	26
17	19	Leah Stevens	Stanford	50	0	21	14	15
18	16	Megan Moroney	Virginia	44	12	redshirt	19	13
19	20	Maddie Wright	USC	40	0	14	13	13
20	UNR	Annie Ochitwa	Missouri	39	12	11	16
21	UNR	Delaney Duncan	Eastern Michigan	38	3	18	17
22	UNR	Catie Deloof	Michigan	37	6	31
23	UNR	Kirsten Vose	USC	33	27	2	redshirt	4
24	UNR	Elise Haan	FGCU/NC State	22	1	4	16	1
25	UNR	Chantal Nack	Minnesota	21.5	21.5
26	UNR	Maddie Banic	Tennessee	19	13	2	4
27	UNR	Claire Rasmus	Texas A&M	18.5	1	13	4.5
28	14	Riley Scott	USC	18	5	4	9	0
28	INTL	Joanna Evans	Texas	18	17	0	1
30	UNR	Geena Freriks	Kentucky	15	9	6
31	UNR	Erin Falconer	Auburn	13	4	9
32	UNR	Kim Williams	Stanford	7	4	3
32	UNR	Bailey Nero	Auburn	7	7
32	INTL	Jamie Zhen Yeung	Michigan	7	7
35	INTL	Alina Kendzior	Louisville	6	2	4
36	13	Katrina Konopka	Arizona	5.5	0	3.5	2	0
37	UNR	Rachel Munson	Minnesota	5	5
37	UNR	Sophie Cattermole	Louisville	5	5
39	UNR	Elizabeth Stinson	USC	4	4
39	UNR	Courtney Caldwell	NC State/USC	4	4
39	UNR	Rachael Bradford-Feldman	Louisville	4	0	4
39	INTL	Monika Gonzalez-Hermosillo	Texas A&M	4	2	0	2
43	7	Quinn Carrozza	Texas	3	0	no invite	3	0
43	UNR	Anna Jahns	NC State	3	3
43	INTL	Laura Morley	Indiana	3	3
43	UNR	Mackenzie Rumrill	Arizona	3	3
43	INTL	Justine Macfarland	Alabama	3	1	2
48	UNR	Alice Treuth	Notre Dame	1	1
48	UNR	Nikki Smith	Notre Dame	1	1
48	UNR	Lauren Barber	Navy	1	1
48	UNR	Kathryn Painter	Kentucky	1	1
48	UNR	Christie Jensen	Indiana	1	1

These top 10 scorers show a pretty good ratio: seven of the ten best NCAA scorers in the class came from our ranked athletes. One unranked athlete surged and two internationals worked their way into the top 10.
Interestingly enough, though, the next five scorers after the top 10 were a combination of internationals and unranked athletes, coming in before our next wave of four more ranked athletes.

Stay tuned this week for similar analysis of our graduating men’s senior class, as well as quick looks at the current year’s freshmen classes and the overall recruiting classes team-by-team.

More recruiting rank analysis:

Women’s:

Men’s:

Revisiting recruiting ranks: High school class of 2015 (coming soon)
Re-Ranking the recruiting classes: Collegiate class of 2016-2019 (coming soon)
Revisiting recruiting ranks: High school class of 2018 (coming soon)
All recruits, Classes of 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 (coming soon)

Sydney Pickrem

About Jared Anderson

Jared Anderson

Jared Anderson swam for nearly twenty years. Then, Jared Anderson stopped swimming and started writing about swimming. He's not sick of swimming yet. Swimming might be sick of him, though. Jared was a YMCA and high school swimmer in northern Minnesota, and spent his college years swimming breaststroke and occasionally pretending …