Kariyushi Rao | University of Chicago Booth School of Business (original) (raw)
Kariyushi Rao is a behavioral scientist with experience applying experimental and observational research methods to the study of individual and group decision-making. Her research interests are related to pathologies that arise under suboptimal performance management systems, and include: performance appraisal elicitation and accuracy, collective responses to scarcity, and the behavioral consequences of common incentive structures. Kariyushi received her PhD in behavioral science from The University of Chicago Booth School of Business (2021). Kariyushi’s academic career was preceded by nearly a decade of professional experience in high tech, during which time she also completed masters degrees in computer science (University of Chicago, 2016) and business administration (University of Chicago Booth School of Business, 2012), as well as her SCPM credential (Stanford Advanced Project Management Program, 2009).
Supervisors: Reid Hastie, Richard Thaler, Ronald S. Burt, Emir Kamenica, John Levi Martin, and Michael Gibbs
Address: 5807 S Woodlawn Ave, Chicago, IL 60637
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We report on six experiments studying participants’ predictions of the next outcome in a sequence... more We report on six experiments studying participants’ predictions of the next outcome in a sequence of binary events. Participants faced one of three mechanisms generating 18 sequences of 8 events: a random mechanical bingo cage, an intentional goal-directed actor, and a financial market. We systematically manipulated participants’ beliefs about the base rate probabilities at which different types of outcomes were generated by each mechanism. Participants either faced unknown (ambiguous) base rates, a specified distribution of three equiprobable base rates, or a precise, stationary base rate. Six target sequences ended in streaks of between two and seven identical outcomes. We focused on participants’ predictions of the ninth, unobserved outcome in each of these target sequences. Across all generating mechanisms and prior belief conditions, the most common prediction pattern was best described as close-to-rational belief updating, producing an increasingly strong bias toward repetition of streaks. The exception to this generalization was for sequences generated by a random mechanical bingo cage with a precise, stationary base rate of .50. Under these conditions, participants exhibited a bias toward reversal of streaks. This effect was irrational, given our instructions on the nature of the generator. We conclude that the dominant judgment habit when predicting outcomes of sequences of binary events is reasonable belief updating. We review alternate accounts for the anomalous judgments of sequences produced by random mechanical devices with a precise, stationary base rate.
Papers by Kariyushi Rao
The present research program investigates the underlying mechanisms that drive changes in the str... more The present research program investigates the underlying mechanisms that drive changes in the structure of communication networks among strategic decision-makers confronted with changes in their resource environment. This investigation is carried out through five experiments that engage human participants in a novel n-armed bandit task either as individuals (Studies 1, 2A, and 2B) or as members of interactive groups (Studies 3A and 3B). This research program makes several novel contributions. Primary among these is an important refinement to the "scarcity" construct employed by a number of disciplines across the social sciences. Despite a lack of consensus around the definition of scarcity, there is apparent agreement that a downward shift in resource levels is a key component. The present experiments cleanly separate the effect of downward shifts in resource levels from other components of the scarcity construct. I find that a downward shift in resource levels alone is no...
SSRN Electronic Journal
We report on six experiments studying participants’ predictions of the next outcome in a sequence... more We report on six experiments studying participants’ predictions of the next outcome in a sequence of binary events. Participants faced one of three mechanisms generating 18 sequences of 8 events: a random mechanical bingo cage, an intentional goal-directed actor, and a financial market. We systematically manipulated participants’ beliefs about the base rate probabilities at which different types of outcomes were generated by each mechanism. Participants either faced unknown (ambiguous) base rates, a specified distribution of three equiprobable base rates, or a precise, stationary base rate. Six target sequences ended in streaks of between two and seven identical outcomes. We focused on participants’ predictions of the ninth, unobserved outcome in each of these target sequences. Across all generating mechanisms and prior belief conditions, the most common prediction pattern was best described as close-to-rational belief updating, producing an increasingly strong bias toward repetition of streaks. The exception to this generalization was for sequences generated by a random mechanical bingo cage with a precise, stationary base rate of .50. Under these conditions, participants exhibited a bias toward reversal of streaks. This effect was irrational, given our instructions on the nature of the generator. We conclude that the dominant judgment habit when predicting outcomes of sequences of binary events is reasonable belief updating. We review alternate accounts for the anomalous judgments of sequences produced by random mechanical devices with a precise, stationary base rate.
We report on six experiments studying participants’ predictions of the next outcome in a sequence... more We report on six experiments studying participants’ predictions of the next outcome in a sequence of binary events. Participants faced one of three mechanisms generating 18 sequences of 8 events: a random mechanical bingo cage, an intentional goal-directed actor, and a financial market. We systematically manipulated participants’ beliefs about the base rate probabilities at which different types of outcomes were generated by each mechanism. Participants either faced unknown (ambiguous) base rates, a specified distribution of three equiprobable base rates, or a precise, stationary base rate. Six target sequences ended in streaks of between two and seven identical outcomes. We focused on participants’ predictions of the ninth, unobserved outcome in each of these target sequences. Across all generating mechanisms and prior belief conditions, the most common prediction pattern was best described as close-to-rational belief updating, producing an increasingly strong bias toward repetition of streaks. The exception to this generalization was for sequences generated by a random mechanical bingo cage with a precise, stationary base rate of .50. Under these conditions, participants exhibited a bias toward reversal of streaks. This effect was irrational, given our instructions on the nature of the generator. We conclude that the dominant judgment habit when predicting outcomes of sequences of binary events is reasonable belief updating. We review alternate accounts for the anomalous judgments of sequences produced by random mechanical devices with a precise, stationary base rate.
The present research program investigates the underlying mechanisms that drive changes in the str... more The present research program investigates the underlying mechanisms that drive changes in the structure of communication networks among strategic decision-makers confronted with changes in their resource environment. This investigation is carried out through five experiments that engage human participants in a novel n-armed bandit task either as individuals (Studies 1, 2A, and 2B) or as members of interactive groups (Studies 3A and 3B). This research program makes several novel contributions. Primary among these is an important refinement to the "scarcity" construct employed by a number of disciplines across the social sciences. Despite a lack of consensus around the definition of scarcity, there is apparent agreement that a downward shift in resource levels is a key component. The present experiments cleanly separate the effect of downward shifts in resource levels from other components of the scarcity construct. I find that a downward shift in resource levels alone is no...
SSRN Electronic Journal
We report on six experiments studying participants’ predictions of the next outcome in a sequence... more We report on six experiments studying participants’ predictions of the next outcome in a sequence of binary events. Participants faced one of three mechanisms generating 18 sequences of 8 events: a random mechanical bingo cage, an intentional goal-directed actor, and a financial market. We systematically manipulated participants’ beliefs about the base rate probabilities at which different types of outcomes were generated by each mechanism. Participants either faced unknown (ambiguous) base rates, a specified distribution of three equiprobable base rates, or a precise, stationary base rate. Six target sequences ended in streaks of between two and seven identical outcomes. We focused on participants’ predictions of the ninth, unobserved outcome in each of these target sequences. Across all generating mechanisms and prior belief conditions, the most common prediction pattern was best described as close-to-rational belief updating, producing an increasingly strong bias toward repetition of streaks. The exception to this generalization was for sequences generated by a random mechanical bingo cage with a precise, stationary base rate of .50. Under these conditions, participants exhibited a bias toward reversal of streaks. This effect was irrational, given our instructions on the nature of the generator. We conclude that the dominant judgment habit when predicting outcomes of sequences of binary events is reasonable belief updating. We review alternate accounts for the anomalous judgments of sequences produced by random mechanical devices with a precise, stationary base rate.