Olatunji A Shobande | Teesside University (original) (raw)
Papers by Olatunji A Shobande
Economics and Business, 2019
The study examines the impact of switching from direct to indirect monetary policy on industrial ... more The study examines the impact of switching from direct to indirect monetary policy on industrial growth in Nigeria, using the annual time series data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) statistical bulletin between 1960 and 2015. The study adopts the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing approach developed by Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) for estimating the relevant relationships. The result of the long-run estimates shows that domestic credit, interest rate and trade balance have positive impact on industrial output while money supply, inflation and exchange rate have negative impact on industrial growth. The result of the short-run dynamics shows that change in the previous (one and second lagged) periods of indirect monetary policy (interest rate, money supply, domestic credit and exchange rate) and industrial output were negatively related to change in industrial output. The error correction term indicates the speed of adjustment of equilibrium to the...
Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Journal of public affairs, Jan 28, 2021
Over the last three decades, the renewed interest in key drivers of economic growth in OECD count... more Over the last three decades, the renewed interest in key drivers of economic growth in OECD countries has been the central discourse. The argument is whether physical or human capital matters for the economic growth in these countries. This study contributes to the ongoing debate by exploring the connection between human capital accumulation and economic growth between 1986 and 2018 for a panel of 24 OECD countries. The empirical evidence is based on the fixed effect and two‐stage lease squares (2SLS). The result indicates that growth does not converge between countries. Further evidence shows that human capital, the savings rate, and the openness of trade play a vital role in OECD countries' economic growth. On the contrary, the findings show that life expectancy and inflation have adverse effects on growth. Thus, the study recommends the urgent need for intervention programs tailored toward improving research and development combined with investment in the well‐being of the people and the effective utilization of human capital to promote growth while mitigating inflationary pressure. Highlights The study flashlight on the link between human capital accumulation and economic growth It highlights various issues surrounding the gaps in Solow model. The evidenced is based on Pooled OLS, G2SLS, and FE‐IV regression. Our results indicate that human capital accumulation (education and health) has a positive and significant relationship with economic growth.
Social Science Research Network, 2023
Journal of Environmental Management
The Journal of Developing Areas
Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, 2017
In this paper, we analyze some correlates of urbanization in Lagos resulting from ruralurban migr... more In this paper, we analyze some correlates of urbanization in Lagos resulting from ruralurban migration. We provide empirical evidence to show that the gross domestic product of Lagos State is insignificant in determining the pace of rural-urban led urbanization. However, urbanization significantly reduces as state government expenditure on housing and modern health is increased. Conversely, urbanization rises when the state government increases spending on education and transportation. Therefore, education and modern transportation provisions by the government of Lagos are critical toward urbanization drive of the State.
Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, 2018
Nigeria has experienced somersault of foreign exchange policies by the Central Bank. One policy c... more Nigeria has experienced somersault of foreign exchange policies by the Central Bank. One policy concern in recent times is to have an appropriate target of the exchange and interest rates. Therefore, this paper seeks to provide a foundation for the targeting of an appropriate exchange and interest rates for the country. Using the Johansen Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Mechanism approaches, it specifically examines the relationships among Nigeria’s weak exchange rate, its local rate of interest and world interest rate. Contrary to many studies, a control measure involving inclusion of inflation, money supply and national output in the model is done. The analysis showed an equilibrium association between exchange rate and interest rate-cum-other variables and steady rectification of deviance from long-run stability over a sequence of incomplete short-run modifications. Increase in domestic and world interest rate, inflation, money supply and GDPat equilibrium would strengt...
Open Economics, 2020
Fiscal policy has recently been encouraged to increase competition, monitor Africa’s debt to GDP ... more Fiscal policy has recently been encouraged to increase competition, monitor Africa’s debt to GDP and improve its economic growth. Importantly, the present fiscal situation in most African countries will seem to have significant consequences for both public and private investments. This paper examines whether fiscal policy and investment matters for GDP growth in a panel of forty-eight (48) African countries for the period 1970-2017. The empirical evidence explored is based on the Fixed Effect (FE) and System Generalised Method of Moment (GMM) estimators. The results suggest that public and private investment among selected African countries has a positive impact on GDP growth. The findings further indicate that fiscal policies must play a more prominent role in sustaining potential private and public investments, especially as debt servicing among the African’ countries examined may have serious shortcomings on sustainable economic growth
Environmental Modeling & Assessment
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2022
The struggle to combat climate change remains complex and challenging. Currently, two climate cha... more The struggle to combat climate change remains complex and challenging. Currently, two climate change approaches, namely, mitigation and adaptation, have been widely supported. These are empirical, requiring further explanation of the main drivers of carbon emissions. This research seeks to tackle this problem by providing a strategy to reduce climate change impacts. This study contributes to the existing empirical literature in several ways. It investigates whether education and information and communication technology (ICT) matter to promote environmental sustainability in the Eastern and Southern Africa. The empirical evidence is based on the third-generation panel unit root test and panel cointegration tests that account for the potential issue of structural breaks in the series. We further dissect the long and short run dynamics using the panel Granger causality approach. Our findings show the possibility of using education and clean technology investment in a complementary strategy for mitigating carbon emissions and promoting environmental sustainability in the sampled countries.
Academic Journal of Economic Studies, 2019
The study focused on the ease of doing business as it affects private investment in Nigeria, usin... more The study focused on the ease of doing business as it affects private investment in Nigeria, using a time series data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical Bulletin. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model bound testing approach was employed for the study and the overall results confirmed that there exist a long run and short relationship among the variable considered. The study warned that there is need to relax monetary toolkit to allow private investment contributes to economic growth by giving access to loanable funds and providing regulatory framework and tax incentive to better enhance their performance.
Turkish Economic Review, 2018
Abstract. All developing economies require a sophisticated financial system, which incorporates b... more Abstract. All developing economies require a sophisticated financial system, which incorporates both the financial institutions and financial market. These institutions and market exist to mediate between those who wish to save or lend and those who wish to borrow or invest. This basic rationale seems complex, since offering new types of financial instruments which can reduce transaction cost in the face of highly risky and challenging agricultural business coupled with the urgent quest for revitalization of agricultural sector for meaningful growth and development is needed. This paper searches the missing link between financial sector and agricultural growth in Nigeria between 1996Q1 and 2017Q4. The study adopts Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds testing approach developed by Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) in estimating the relevant relationship. The results of the long run estimates show that agricultural credit, money markets, capital markets, exchange rate have positi...
Economics and Business, 2020
The study develops and examines the spatial distribution of the Corona Virus Disease (COVID) on m... more The study develops and examines the spatial distribution of the Corona Virus Disease (COVID) on mortality outcomes using a global panel dataset of 79 countries. The empirical evidence is based on Fixed Effect (FE) and System Generalized Method of Moment (SGMM) estimator. The predicted variable is proxy with daily mortality outcomes, while the predictor variable is proxy with spatial COVID spread while controlling for social tension and average temperature. The global and regional findings of the study established that spatial variation in COVID spread had positive and significant relationships with mortality outcomes. Further results also indicate that social tension is a contributing factor to the rising daily mortality outcome from the COVD outbreak, whereas temperature variation reduces mortality outcome. Thus, the study recommends the use of statistical modelling to predict and manage the epidemic. Also, there is an urgent demand to deploy essential social need to the vulnerable...
Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2021
Africa is currently experiencing both financial and human development challenges. While several c... more Africa is currently experiencing both financial and human development challenges. While several continents have advocated for financial development in order to acquire environmentally friendly machinery that produces less emissions and ensures long-term sustainability, Africa is still lagging behind the rest of the world. Similarly, Africa's human development has remained stagnant, posing a serious threat to climate change if not addressed. Building on the underpinnings of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis on the nexus between economic growth and environmental pollution, this study contributes to empirical research seeking to promote environmental sustainability as follows. First, it investigates the link between financial development, human capital development and climate change in East and Southern Africa. Second, six advanced panel techniquesare used, and they include: (1) cross-sectional dependency (CD) tests; (2) combined panel unit root tests; (3) combined panel cointegration tests; (4) panel VAR/VEC Granger causality tests and (5) combined variance decomposition analysis based on Cholesky and Generalised weights. Our finding shows that financial and human capital developments are important in reducing CO2 emissions and promoting environmental sustainability in East and Southern Africa.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2021
This study examines whether knowledge causes economic growth in Africa's two leading economies: N... more This study examines whether knowledge causes economic growth in Africa's two leading economies: Nigeria and South Africa. Using the Vector Autoregressive and Vector Error Correction approach, the findings show cointegration among the variables. The speed of convergence of the variables to their long-term mean values is relatively higher for South Africa than for Nigeria. In the short run, it is observed that knowledge unidirectionally Granger causes growth for Nigeria, whereas bidirectional causality is observed for South Africa. The higher correlation between knowledge and growth in South Africa reflects the success of greater investment in education. Nigeria must increase investment in education and modern infrastructure to converge to South Africa's growth trajectory. Moreover, for Nigeria, (i) knowledge unidirectionally Granger cause growth, (ii) evidence of bidirectional causality flow is apparent between trade, the economic incentive and growth and (iii) health unidirectionally Granger cause knowledge. As for South Africa: (i) there is bidirectional causality between knowledge, trade openness and growth, whereas investment and economic incentive, unidirectionally Granger causes growth, (ii) investment, trade openness and health unidirectionally Granger cause knowledge and (iii) economic incentive unidirectionally Granger cause trade openness. In conclusion, this paper argues that a transformed education system can provide the knowledge base essential for promoting and sustaining economic growth.
World Journal of Social Science, 2014
The study examined the impact of human capital investment on economic development of Nigeria. The... more The study examined the impact of human capital investment on economic development of Nigeria. The Solow augmented model developed by Mankiw, Romer, and Weil (1992) which incorporated the role of human capital as a yardstick for economic development was adapted to investigate the link between human capital investment and economic development in Nigeria.. Annual time series data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria's Statistical Bulletin between 1970 to 2011.Ordinary least square method (OLS), Augmented dickey fuller test (ADF), Johansen co-integration, Error correction model (ECM) were employed as estimation techniques. Pre-estimation findings showed that all variables are non-mean reverting at level and do not converge to their long run equilibrium until they were at first differenced. The empirical finding indicated that there was a negative short run relationship between economic development and human capital investment in Nigeria. It is recommended that Nigeria should consider education beyond secondary school enrollment, if investment in human capital is to produce meaningful macroeconomic changes.
Economics and Business, 2020
This paper forecasts the world population using the Autoregressive Integration Moving Average (AR... more This paper forecasts the world population using the Autoregressive Integration Moving Average (ARIMA) for estimation and projection for short-range and long-term population sizes of the world, regions and sub-regions. The study provides evidence that growth and population explosion will continue in Sub-Saharan Africa, tending the need to aggressively promote pragmatic programmes that will balance population growth and sustainable economic growth in the region. The study argued that early projections took for granted the positive and negative implications of population growth on the social structure and offset the natural process, which might have implication(s) on survival rate. Given the obvious imbalance in population growth across continents and regions of the world, a more purposeful inter-regional and economic co-operation that supports and enhances population balancing and economic expansion among nations is highly recommended. In this regard, the United Nations should compel ...
Academic Journal of Economic Studies, 2019
We examine the impact of remittances on the real exchange rate in South-Africa using Cochrane-Orc... more We examine the impact of remittances on the real exchange rate in South-Africa using Cochrane-Orcutt Ordinary Least Square. The study finds out that remittances do not show any relationship with Rand in the foreign exchange market but certain factors like income, gross fixed capital formation and trade are significant to explain the dynamics in foreign exchange rate of South-African currency. The study suggests domestication of the excessive desire for western products, and provision of necessary incentives for local substitute companies to curb negative impact of trade on the foreign exchange rate. The study is constrained in so many ways, but one important area future research will like to investigate is how underground remittances operates to influence the dynamics in the real exchange rate.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019
Economics and Business, 2019
The study examines the impact of switching from direct to indirect monetary policy on industrial ... more The study examines the impact of switching from direct to indirect monetary policy on industrial growth in Nigeria, using the annual time series data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) statistical bulletin between 1960 and 2015. The study adopts the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing approach developed by Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) for estimating the relevant relationships. The result of the long-run estimates shows that domestic credit, interest rate and trade balance have positive impact on industrial output while money supply, inflation and exchange rate have negative impact on industrial growth. The result of the short-run dynamics shows that change in the previous (one and second lagged) periods of indirect monetary policy (interest rate, money supply, domestic credit and exchange rate) and industrial output were negatively related to change in industrial output. The error correction term indicates the speed of adjustment of equilibrium to the...
Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Journal of public affairs, Jan 28, 2021
Over the last three decades, the renewed interest in key drivers of economic growth in OECD count... more Over the last three decades, the renewed interest in key drivers of economic growth in OECD countries has been the central discourse. The argument is whether physical or human capital matters for the economic growth in these countries. This study contributes to the ongoing debate by exploring the connection between human capital accumulation and economic growth between 1986 and 2018 for a panel of 24 OECD countries. The empirical evidence is based on the fixed effect and two‐stage lease squares (2SLS). The result indicates that growth does not converge between countries. Further evidence shows that human capital, the savings rate, and the openness of trade play a vital role in OECD countries' economic growth. On the contrary, the findings show that life expectancy and inflation have adverse effects on growth. Thus, the study recommends the urgent need for intervention programs tailored toward improving research and development combined with investment in the well‐being of the people and the effective utilization of human capital to promote growth while mitigating inflationary pressure. Highlights The study flashlight on the link between human capital accumulation and economic growth It highlights various issues surrounding the gaps in Solow model. The evidenced is based on Pooled OLS, G2SLS, and FE‐IV regression. Our results indicate that human capital accumulation (education and health) has a positive and significant relationship with economic growth.
Social Science Research Network, 2023
Journal of Environmental Management
The Journal of Developing Areas
Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, 2017
In this paper, we analyze some correlates of urbanization in Lagos resulting from ruralurban migr... more In this paper, we analyze some correlates of urbanization in Lagos resulting from ruralurban migration. We provide empirical evidence to show that the gross domestic product of Lagos State is insignificant in determining the pace of rural-urban led urbanization. However, urbanization significantly reduces as state government expenditure on housing and modern health is increased. Conversely, urbanization rises when the state government increases spending on education and transportation. Therefore, education and modern transportation provisions by the government of Lagos are critical toward urbanization drive of the State.
Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, 2018
Nigeria has experienced somersault of foreign exchange policies by the Central Bank. One policy c... more Nigeria has experienced somersault of foreign exchange policies by the Central Bank. One policy concern in recent times is to have an appropriate target of the exchange and interest rates. Therefore, this paper seeks to provide a foundation for the targeting of an appropriate exchange and interest rates for the country. Using the Johansen Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Mechanism approaches, it specifically examines the relationships among Nigeria’s weak exchange rate, its local rate of interest and world interest rate. Contrary to many studies, a control measure involving inclusion of inflation, money supply and national output in the model is done. The analysis showed an equilibrium association between exchange rate and interest rate-cum-other variables and steady rectification of deviance from long-run stability over a sequence of incomplete short-run modifications. Increase in domestic and world interest rate, inflation, money supply and GDPat equilibrium would strengt...
Open Economics, 2020
Fiscal policy has recently been encouraged to increase competition, monitor Africa’s debt to GDP ... more Fiscal policy has recently been encouraged to increase competition, monitor Africa’s debt to GDP and improve its economic growth. Importantly, the present fiscal situation in most African countries will seem to have significant consequences for both public and private investments. This paper examines whether fiscal policy and investment matters for GDP growth in a panel of forty-eight (48) African countries for the period 1970-2017. The empirical evidence explored is based on the Fixed Effect (FE) and System Generalised Method of Moment (GMM) estimators. The results suggest that public and private investment among selected African countries has a positive impact on GDP growth. The findings further indicate that fiscal policies must play a more prominent role in sustaining potential private and public investments, especially as debt servicing among the African’ countries examined may have serious shortcomings on sustainable economic growth
Environmental Modeling & Assessment
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2022
The struggle to combat climate change remains complex and challenging. Currently, two climate cha... more The struggle to combat climate change remains complex and challenging. Currently, two climate change approaches, namely, mitigation and adaptation, have been widely supported. These are empirical, requiring further explanation of the main drivers of carbon emissions. This research seeks to tackle this problem by providing a strategy to reduce climate change impacts. This study contributes to the existing empirical literature in several ways. It investigates whether education and information and communication technology (ICT) matter to promote environmental sustainability in the Eastern and Southern Africa. The empirical evidence is based on the third-generation panel unit root test and panel cointegration tests that account for the potential issue of structural breaks in the series. We further dissect the long and short run dynamics using the panel Granger causality approach. Our findings show the possibility of using education and clean technology investment in a complementary strategy for mitigating carbon emissions and promoting environmental sustainability in the sampled countries.
Academic Journal of Economic Studies, 2019
The study focused on the ease of doing business as it affects private investment in Nigeria, usin... more The study focused on the ease of doing business as it affects private investment in Nigeria, using a time series data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical Bulletin. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model bound testing approach was employed for the study and the overall results confirmed that there exist a long run and short relationship among the variable considered. The study warned that there is need to relax monetary toolkit to allow private investment contributes to economic growth by giving access to loanable funds and providing regulatory framework and tax incentive to better enhance their performance.
Turkish Economic Review, 2018
Abstract. All developing economies require a sophisticated financial system, which incorporates b... more Abstract. All developing economies require a sophisticated financial system, which incorporates both the financial institutions and financial market. These institutions and market exist to mediate between those who wish to save or lend and those who wish to borrow or invest. This basic rationale seems complex, since offering new types of financial instruments which can reduce transaction cost in the face of highly risky and challenging agricultural business coupled with the urgent quest for revitalization of agricultural sector for meaningful growth and development is needed. This paper searches the missing link between financial sector and agricultural growth in Nigeria between 1996Q1 and 2017Q4. The study adopts Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds testing approach developed by Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) in estimating the relevant relationship. The results of the long run estimates show that agricultural credit, money markets, capital markets, exchange rate have positi...
Economics and Business, 2020
The study develops and examines the spatial distribution of the Corona Virus Disease (COVID) on m... more The study develops and examines the spatial distribution of the Corona Virus Disease (COVID) on mortality outcomes using a global panel dataset of 79 countries. The empirical evidence is based on Fixed Effect (FE) and System Generalized Method of Moment (SGMM) estimator. The predicted variable is proxy with daily mortality outcomes, while the predictor variable is proxy with spatial COVID spread while controlling for social tension and average temperature. The global and regional findings of the study established that spatial variation in COVID spread had positive and significant relationships with mortality outcomes. Further results also indicate that social tension is a contributing factor to the rising daily mortality outcome from the COVD outbreak, whereas temperature variation reduces mortality outcome. Thus, the study recommends the use of statistical modelling to predict and manage the epidemic. Also, there is an urgent demand to deploy essential social need to the vulnerable...
Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2021
Africa is currently experiencing both financial and human development challenges. While several c... more Africa is currently experiencing both financial and human development challenges. While several continents have advocated for financial development in order to acquire environmentally friendly machinery that produces less emissions and ensures long-term sustainability, Africa is still lagging behind the rest of the world. Similarly, Africa's human development has remained stagnant, posing a serious threat to climate change if not addressed. Building on the underpinnings of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis on the nexus between economic growth and environmental pollution, this study contributes to empirical research seeking to promote environmental sustainability as follows. First, it investigates the link between financial development, human capital development and climate change in East and Southern Africa. Second, six advanced panel techniquesare used, and they include: (1) cross-sectional dependency (CD) tests; (2) combined panel unit root tests; (3) combined panel cointegration tests; (4) panel VAR/VEC Granger causality tests and (5) combined variance decomposition analysis based on Cholesky and Generalised weights. Our finding shows that financial and human capital developments are important in reducing CO2 emissions and promoting environmental sustainability in East and Southern Africa.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2021
This study examines whether knowledge causes economic growth in Africa's two leading economies: N... more This study examines whether knowledge causes economic growth in Africa's two leading economies: Nigeria and South Africa. Using the Vector Autoregressive and Vector Error Correction approach, the findings show cointegration among the variables. The speed of convergence of the variables to their long-term mean values is relatively higher for South Africa than for Nigeria. In the short run, it is observed that knowledge unidirectionally Granger causes growth for Nigeria, whereas bidirectional causality is observed for South Africa. The higher correlation between knowledge and growth in South Africa reflects the success of greater investment in education. Nigeria must increase investment in education and modern infrastructure to converge to South Africa's growth trajectory. Moreover, for Nigeria, (i) knowledge unidirectionally Granger cause growth, (ii) evidence of bidirectional causality flow is apparent between trade, the economic incentive and growth and (iii) health unidirectionally Granger cause knowledge. As for South Africa: (i) there is bidirectional causality between knowledge, trade openness and growth, whereas investment and economic incentive, unidirectionally Granger causes growth, (ii) investment, trade openness and health unidirectionally Granger cause knowledge and (iii) economic incentive unidirectionally Granger cause trade openness. In conclusion, this paper argues that a transformed education system can provide the knowledge base essential for promoting and sustaining economic growth.
World Journal of Social Science, 2014
The study examined the impact of human capital investment on economic development of Nigeria. The... more The study examined the impact of human capital investment on economic development of Nigeria. The Solow augmented model developed by Mankiw, Romer, and Weil (1992) which incorporated the role of human capital as a yardstick for economic development was adapted to investigate the link between human capital investment and economic development in Nigeria.. Annual time series data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria's Statistical Bulletin between 1970 to 2011.Ordinary least square method (OLS), Augmented dickey fuller test (ADF), Johansen co-integration, Error correction model (ECM) were employed as estimation techniques. Pre-estimation findings showed that all variables are non-mean reverting at level and do not converge to their long run equilibrium until they were at first differenced. The empirical finding indicated that there was a negative short run relationship between economic development and human capital investment in Nigeria. It is recommended that Nigeria should consider education beyond secondary school enrollment, if investment in human capital is to produce meaningful macroeconomic changes.
Economics and Business, 2020
This paper forecasts the world population using the Autoregressive Integration Moving Average (AR... more This paper forecasts the world population using the Autoregressive Integration Moving Average (ARIMA) for estimation and projection for short-range and long-term population sizes of the world, regions and sub-regions. The study provides evidence that growth and population explosion will continue in Sub-Saharan Africa, tending the need to aggressively promote pragmatic programmes that will balance population growth and sustainable economic growth in the region. The study argued that early projections took for granted the positive and negative implications of population growth on the social structure and offset the natural process, which might have implication(s) on survival rate. Given the obvious imbalance in population growth across continents and regions of the world, a more purposeful inter-regional and economic co-operation that supports and enhances population balancing and economic expansion among nations is highly recommended. In this regard, the United Nations should compel ...
Academic Journal of Economic Studies, 2019
We examine the impact of remittances on the real exchange rate in South-Africa using Cochrane-Orc... more We examine the impact of remittances on the real exchange rate in South-Africa using Cochrane-Orcutt Ordinary Least Square. The study finds out that remittances do not show any relationship with Rand in the foreign exchange market but certain factors like income, gross fixed capital formation and trade are significant to explain the dynamics in foreign exchange rate of South-African currency. The study suggests domestication of the excessive desire for western products, and provision of necessary incentives for local substitute companies to curb negative impact of trade on the foreign exchange rate. The study is constrained in so many ways, but one important area future research will like to investigate is how underground remittances operates to influence the dynamics in the real exchange rate.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019