SpaceX’s success redefines the commercial space frontier, but what’s next? (original) (raw)

If his social posts were anything to go by, it may have seemed that Elon Musk was a little distracted as the crew of Polaris Dawn prepared for one of the most momentous feats in commercial space travel.

By founding SpaceX in 2002, he opened a new frontier in space exploration, developing reusable rockets that made satellite and cargo launches more affordable and efficient. This progress led to the 2021 launch of Crew Dragon, a spacecraft designed to carry astronauts.

Next comes Starship, his vision for getting humans back to the moon and, sometime beyond, hauling hundreds of paying passengers at a time to colonise Mars.

Elon Musk’s demeanour shows how the expectation of success in the commercial space sector has become routine

Elon Musk’s demeanour shows how the expectation of success in the commercial space sector has become routine

MICHAEL GONZALEZ/GETTY IMAGES

“Spacewalk!” he posted on his social media platform, X, as mission controllers at SpaceX’s headquarters in Hawthorne, California, and the four citizen astronauts in orbit entered the final countdown to Thursday’s spacewalk.

The post — and others on his feed alluding to Jared Isaacman and the team’s endeavours high above Earth — was sandwiched between posts and retweets by Musk about Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, government inflation, political bias in the media, government censorship, illegal immigration and voter fraud.

“Congratulations,” he posted, with an image from SpaceX of Isaacman silhouetted against the blue marble of Earth, before moving on to the topic of Australia wanting to fine internet platforms that spread misinformation.

Yet for Musk and SpaceX’s 13,000 employees, Polaris Dawn is yet another in a rapidly advancing series of powerhouse accomplishments. What may have seemed like nonchalance by Musk is instead, perhaps, a measure of how routine the expectation of success has become as the commercial space sector pushes past the final frontier.

In 2023, the global space economy grew 8 per cent on the previous year, reaching 546billion,andwithinfiveyearsitisexpectedtonear546 billion, and within five years it is expected to near 546billion,andwithinfiveyearsitisexpectedtonear800 billion, according to the Space Foundation. The commercial sector accounts for 78 per cent of the total global space economy, with demand for space-based broadband internet services and satellite manufacturing helping to drive growth.

Satellite-based emergency beacons have saved 57,000 lives, Earth monitoring sensors have stepped up the accuracy of weather forecasting and innovations in space, such as telescope technologies, are improving humankind’s understanding of the cosmos, the report noted.

• SpaceX Polaris Dawn: one small step for a citizen spacewalker

For Nasa and other civil space agencies, partnership with the commercial sector is crucial to progress. “Today’s success represents a giant leap forward for the commercial space industry and Nasa’s long-term goal to build a vibrant space community,” said Bill Nelson, the head of Nasa, in a congratulatory message to the Polaris Dawn crew and SpaceX.

Though not involved in the private mission, Nasa is working with SpaceX and others on a collaborative goal of getting humans back to the moon under its Artemis programme.

SpaceX Polaris Dawn achieves first civilian spacewalk

It is paying SpaceX $4 billion to develop the Starship lander to ferry astronauts from lunar orbit to the surface of the moon for its Artemis III and Artemis IV missions. Both missions will launch crew from Florida, the first no earlier than September 2026, using Nasa’s Orion capsule and its Space Launch System rocket.

Nasa has also contracted with Blue Origin, founded by Jeff Bezos, to build a separate lunar lander, Blue Moon, for $3.4 billion. It is also relying on other commercial partnerships to help provide and deliver scientific equipment and robotic exploration technologies to the moon. Intuitive Machines, Lunar Outpost and Astrolab are creating lunar terrain vehicles for astronauts to potentially drive on the moon during Artemis V, currently planned for 2029.

Commercial providers are also working on space habitats and orbiting space laboratories to replace the International Space Station, which is due for retirement and de-orbit in 2031.

Meanwhile Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin are providing minutes-long sub-orbital jaunts to the edge of space and back for paying guests with deep pockets and a curiosity for floating in weightlessness for a few minutes and seeing their planet from 60 miles up.

• Product placement on moon offers giant leap for advertising

Isaacman named his Polaris programme after the constellation of three stars known as the North Star, because it has been “a guiding light throughout human history to help navigate the world around us and the sky above.”

Polaris Dawn will be followed by two more missions in the trilogy — one on a Crew Dragon capsule to build on the technologies and scientific research of the current mission and the other will be the first human spaceflight on Starship.

“It’s just the start,” Isaacman said as he gazed out at the blackness of space and the blueness of Earth from his vantage point 460 miles up. For all who get to see their planet from space, the overview effect is an enduring souvenir.

The late Edgar Mitchell, a Nasa astronaut on the Apollo 14 mission in 1971, said of seeing Earth from space: “You want to grab a politician by the scruff of the neck and drag him a quarter million miles out and say: ‘Look at that, you son of a bitch.’”