Tim Benz: Plenty of theories for Paul Skenes’ recent struggles — all to be tested vs. Dodgers (original) (raw)

Whatever has been bothering Paul Skenes over the past month, it sure would be great if he could figure it out by about 6:40 p.m. Tuesday.

Because if he can’t, the Los Angeles Dodgers will be more than happy to exploit it.

Last year’s Cy Young award winner will try to snap a team — and personal — slump in Game 1 of a three-game series between the Dodgers and the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park.

Los Angeles comes to town boasting a 42-24 record. That’s tops in the National League West. The Atlanta Braves (45-21) are the only Major League team with more wins.

The Pirates are coming off a three-game sweep at the hands of Atlanta, where the Braves yielded just eight runs.

The Dodgers are second in Major League Baseball in runs scored (345) and lowest in runs allowed (212). That’s good for a plus-133 run differential — the best in MLB. With 90 homers, only Atlanta has as many as the Dodgers in the NL.

The L.A. pitching staff leads MLB in WHIP (1.07), opponent batting average (.208) and ERA (3.17).

That’s the kind of challenge Skenes and the rest of the Pirates will be facing Tuesday, to say nothing of the individual battle against 2025 MVP Shohei Ohtani, who is currently first in the NL in OPS (.939) and has 11 home runs to go along with a .302 batting average.

Over his last 10 games, Ohtani is 19 for 43, with a .442 batting average, three homers and an OPS of 1.234. That’s in addition to a pitching ERA on the season of 0.74 and a record of 6-2.

The need for Skenes to be sharp and get back into his usual groove is augmented by the fact that Ohtani throws against Jared Jones (1-0, 4.82) on Wednesday. Then, struggling Mitch Keller (5-3, 4.81) needs to face off against Justin Wrobleski on Thursday. Wrobleski is 7-2 with an ERA of 2.62.

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So the Pirates have a lot of chips pushed in on Skenes (6-5, 3.09) to come out strong and win the opener against Eric Lauer (2-5, 5.74), who was acquired from Toronto last month.

That’s no sure thing of late for Skenes. He hasn’t posted a victory since May 12 against Colorado. Ten strikeouts and eight innings of shutout baseball that night lowered his ERA to 1.98 and boosted his record to 6-2.

Over the four starts since then, Skenes has seen his ERA jump to 3.09 while suffering three losses and a no-decision in an 11-9 loss to the Houston Astros in his most recent trip to the mound last Wednesday.

There have been external factors that have exacerbated Skenes’ longest funk of his Major League career. The defense has been spotty over his last four starts, and the bullpen has been shaky at times.

But Skenes has had his own issues. He’s given up 25 hits, six walks and 11 earned runs in his last 20 innings. PiratesOnSI.com noted that Skenes was getting ahead of hitters on the first pitch at just a 52% rate in his last start versus Houston. It was also pointed out that his fastball has been put in play 18 times over the last four starts. Nine of those events have gone for hits, and 11 of them were put in play with hard contact.

SI.com also indicated that there was some diminished vertical break in his fastball during a bumpy start in Toronto over Memorial Day weekend when he yielded nine hits and four earned runs in five innings.

One less tangible theory that TribLive beat writer Kevin Gorman advanced during our most recent baseball podcast on Friday is that because of the advent of the ABS challenge system, Skenes may be catching more of the plate than he used to over his first two years, where he seemed very comfortable living on the black.

There was also the interesting notion posited by former Pirate Neil Walker during Skenes’ most recent outing in Houston. During the SportsNet Pittsburgh broadcast, the retired infielder suggested that, to a degree, the right-hander is becoming a victim of his own arsenal.

Walker recalled playing in the field behind a young Gerrit Cole during the early part of his career in Pittsburgh. It’s Walker’s belief that, like Cole, Skenes’ stuff is so good that even Major League hitters are struggling to put balls in play for weak contact early in counts, and they are just fouling off pitches frequently to extend at-bats and drive up Skenes’ pitch count. As a result, he’s also catching too much of the plate deeper in counts.

The Astros fouled off 23 pitches (not counting foul outs) versus Skenes in his last outing; 12 came with two strikes.

Maybe all those theories have some merit. Maybe they are all bupkis, and Skenes has just had some bad luck over a four-week rut. But something is not clicking the way it has been for Skenes over the marvelous start to his career.

And if he doesn’t figure it out by Tuesday night, the Dodgers are a team that is certainly capable of adding to Skenes’ recent problems.