Iuri Ananiashvili | Tbilisi State University (original) (raw)
Papers by Iuri Ananiashvili
Globalization and Business, 2020
In this article we present forecasts of the spread of COVID-19 virus, obtained by econometric and... more In this article we present forecasts of the spread of COVID-19 virus, obtained by econometric and machine learning methods. Furthermore, by employing modelling method, we estimate effectiveness of preventive measures implemented by the government. Each of the models discussed in this article is modelling different characteristics of the COVID-19 epidemic's trajectory: peak and end date, number of daily infections over different forecasting horizons, total number of infection cases. All these provide quite clear picture to the interested reader of the future threats posed by COVID-19. In terms of existing models and data, our research indicates that phenomenological models do well in forecasting the trend, duration and total infections of the COVID-19 epidemic, but make serious mistakes in forecasting the number of daily infections. Machine learning models, deliver more accurate short-term forecast of daily infections, but due to data limitations, they struggle to make long-term forecasts. Compartmental models are the best choice for modelling the measures implemented by the government for preventing the spread of COVID-19 and determining optimal level of restrictions. These models show that until achieving herd immunity (i.e. without any epidemiological or government implemented measures), approximate number of people infected with COVID-19 would be 3 million, but due to preventive measures, expected total number of infections has reduced to several thousand (1555-3189) people. This unequivocally indicates the effectiveness of the preventive measures.
Globalization and Business, 2021
The findings presented in this article are to some extent continuation of the previous studies do... more The findings presented in this article are to some extent continuation of the previous studies done by Georgian authors on the economy of Georgia using CGE models. The main instrument used in our research is based on a standard model tailored by Hosoe (Hosoe, 2004) to specifics of open small economy and is its modification of a certain kind. Two types of factors of production are used in this model to produce goods and services: labour and capital. The model also includes four types of commodities and production activities: agriculture, industry, construction and services. Under the necessary assumptions and restrictions, our model is a system composed of 99 equations and as many of endogenous variables. 36 of these equations correspond to the peculiarities of domestic production; 13 of them describe the government behavior; 4 characterize the investment demand function; The other 46 equations represent the behavioral characteristics of government, households, and the external secto...
SSRN Electronic Journal
The paper presents a macroeconomic equilibrium model in which aggregate demand and aggregate supp... more The paper presents a macroeconomic equilibrium model in which aggregate demand and aggregate supply are considered not in relation to the price level, as is traditionally done, but in terms of functions dependent on the average tax rate. Based on an analysis of the model, it is shown that when the government tries to maintain the equilibrium average tax rate at a fixed level, the optimal tax rate becomes dependent on the price level, and an appropriate change in aggregate demand may lead to approximation of the optimal rate to the equilibrium rate.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
In contemporary economic theories, the role of taxes is studied one-sidedly. Keynesianism mostly ... more In contemporary economic theories, the role of taxes is studied one-sidedly. Keynesianism mostly emphasizes the mechanisms by which taxes affect the economy through aggregate demand and almost does not take into account the mechanism of their effect on the aggregate supply-side. The problem of taxes is also seen one-sidedly by supply-side economics, in which the effect of the tax rate on aggregate supply is brought to the fore. The paper presents a macroeconomic equilibrium model in which aggregate demand and aggregate supply are considered not in relation to the price level, as is traditionally done, but in terms of functions dependent on the average tax rate. The concepts of optimal and equilibrium tax rates are introduced. Based on an analysis of the model, it is shown that when the government tries to maintain the equilibrium average tax rate at a fixed level, the optimal tax rate becomes dependent on the price level, and an appropriate change in aggregate demand may lead to approximation of the optimal rate to the equilibrium rate. It is also demonstrated that each given value of the equilibrium tax rate can be matched with a set of functions and curves of aggregate supply and the national budget's tax revenues. © 2013 Bull. Georg. Natl. Acad. Sci.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
Based on an analysis of a modified version of the standard Keynesian Model of a product market, i... more Based on an analysis of a modified version of the standard Keynesian Model of a product market, it is shown that a change in the average tax rate has a complex effect on aggregate demand. Depending on the marginal propensity of households to consume and the marginal propensity for government purchases, an increase in the average tax rate may lead to either a decrease or an increase in aggregate demand. In this case, since the parameter of marginal propensities to purchase is easily regulated, by selecting its appropriate value the government can purposefully use a tax increase to stimulate or to reduce aggregate demand. © 2012 Bull. Georg. Natl. Acad. Sci.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
The article examines the approach to estimating the effect of the tax burden on the amount of tot... more The article examines the approach to estimating the effect of the tax burden on the amount of total output and budget revenues. This approach uses a behavioral model, with a specific version of an entropy function. In the context of production technology, to quantitatively estimate the dependence of output on the amount of the tax burden, the article reflects the expansions of the macroeconomic production function in which the role of the average tax rate is distinguished in some form. The suggested model makes it possible to determine the so-called fiscal points corresponding to the maximum production effect and the budget's maximum tax revenues. The conclusion is drawn that, these points correspond to the Laffer concept, since for the points of the behavioral model the amount of use of economic resources occurs endogenously. The results obtained are illustrated using existing data on the U.S. economy. When different versions of the calculations were carried out, the estimated model as a whole, as well as its parameters, maintained its stability and did not lose its statistical significance in a fairly broad range of changes in the "sample size." Even when the quality of the model deteriorated (the parameters being estimated became statistically insignificant) as a result of excessive reduction of the sample size, the estimates of the fiscal characteristics changed only slightly. This is not sufficient grounds for drawing final conclusions about the suitability of the suggested model for conducting specific applied calculations.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
The problem of impact tax burden on economic activity and production capacity is very popular amo... more The problem of impact tax burden on economic activity and production capacity is very popular among economists. This paper is a response to the article published by Intellectual Economics in 2012 (No. 4) whose contents, unfortunately, constitute plagiarism. Several parts of the article comprise information taken from different publications under our authorship. This paper gives a brief analysis of the most recent results related to the development of the main ideas of supply-side economics based on the Laffer-Keynesian Synthesis.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
ABSTRACT Keynesian models deal with the situation when aggregate supply is not dependent on tax r... more ABSTRACT Keynesian models deal with the situation when aggregate supply is not dependent on tax rates, while aggregate demand, especially the part of it that relates to consumption, is the function of taxes. Supply-side economics also considers only a single aspect of the tax issue in the Laffer Curve, which emphasizes the impact of the tax rate on aggregate supply. The single-sidedness of the above theories can be overcome by the Laffer-Keynesian Synthesis. The model of macroeconomic equilibrium allows for this synthesis, in which aggregate demand and aggregate supply are represented as functions of the tax burden.
Problems of Economic Transition, 2012
The article examines two different approaches to estimating the effect of the tax burden on the a... more The article examines two different approaches to estimating the effect of the tax burden on the amount of total output and budget revenues. The first approach is based on a transformation model, in which the main role is played by a production function with variable elasticity. The second approach uses a behavioral model, with a specific version of an entropy function. Both models make it possible to determine the so-called fiscal points corresponding to the maximum production effect and the budget's maximum tax revenues. The conclusion is drawn that, of these points, only the points of the behavioral model correspond to the Laffer concept, since for points derived from the transformation model the amount of use of economic resources is exogenous, while for the points of the behavioral model this amount occurs endogenously. The results obtained are illustrated using existing data on the U.S. economy.
Problems of Economic Transition, 2012
02 Ananiashvili-Papava.indd 22 2/23/2012 10:12:53 AM function of taxes. The problem of taxes is a... more 02 Ananiashvili-Papava.indd 22 2/23/2012 10:12:53 AM function of taxes. The problem of taxes is also seen one-sidedly by supply-side economics, in which the effect of the tax rate on aggregate supply is brought to the fore. The role of taxes can be fully explained, and the one-sided nature of these two theories can be overcome through a synthesis of supply-side economics and Keynesianism, which was first suggested by one of the present authors. The model presented below is a further development of this idea of a Laffer-Keynesian synthesis. It is based on a macroeconomic equilibrium model that consists of aggregate demand and aggregate supply functions. However, in contrast to the standard models of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, these functions are analyzed not in the coordinates of a plane on the axes of which values of the price level P and output Y are shown, but on a plane in which the vertical axis corresponds to the average tax rate t; and the horizontal axis, to output Y. In this model, the price level, together with the rest of the factors that affect aggregate demand and aggregate supply, is exogenously given.
Problems of Economic Transition, 2012
Based on an analysis of a modified version of the standard Keynesian model of a product market, i... more Based on an analysis of a modified version of the standard Keynesian model of a product market, it is shown that a change in the average tax rate has a complex effect on aggregate demand. Depending on the marginal propensity of households to consume and the marginal propensity for government purchases, an increase in the average tax rate may lead to either a decrease or an increase in aggregate demand. In this case, since the parameter of marginal propensities to purchase is easily regulated, by selecting its appropriate value the government can purposefully use a tax increase to stimulate or to reduce aggregate demand.
Globalization and Business, 2020
In this article we present forecasts of the spread of COVID-19 virus, obtained by econometric and... more In this article we present forecasts of the spread of COVID-19 virus, obtained by econometric and machine learning methods. Furthermore, by employing modelling method, we estimate effectiveness of preventive measures implemented by the government. Each of the models discussed in this article is modelling different characteristics of the COVID-19 epidemic's trajectory: peak and end date, number of daily infections over different forecasting horizons, total number of infection cases. All these provide quite clear picture to the interested reader of the future threats posed by COVID-19. In terms of existing models and data, our research indicates that phenomenological models do well in forecasting the trend, duration and total infections of the COVID-19 epidemic, but make serious mistakes in forecasting the number of daily infections. Machine learning models, deliver more accurate short-term forecast of daily infections, but due to data limitations, they struggle to make long-term forecasts. Compartmental models are the best choice for modelling the measures implemented by the government for preventing the spread of COVID-19 and determining optimal level of restrictions. These models show that until achieving herd immunity (i.e. without any epidemiological or government implemented measures), approximate number of people infected with COVID-19 would be 3 million, but due to preventive measures, expected total number of infections has reduced to several thousand (1555-3189) people. This unequivocally indicates the effectiveness of the preventive measures.
Globalization and Business, 2021
The findings presented in this article are to some extent continuation of the previous studies do... more The findings presented in this article are to some extent continuation of the previous studies done by Georgian authors on the economy of Georgia using CGE models. The main instrument used in our research is based on a standard model tailored by Hosoe (Hosoe, 2004) to specifics of open small economy and is its modification of a certain kind. Two types of factors of production are used in this model to produce goods and services: labour and capital. The model also includes four types of commodities and production activities: agriculture, industry, construction and services. Under the necessary assumptions and restrictions, our model is a system composed of 99 equations and as many of endogenous variables. 36 of these equations correspond to the peculiarities of domestic production; 13 of them describe the government behavior; 4 characterize the investment demand function; The other 46 equations represent the behavioral characteristics of government, households, and the external secto...
SSRN Electronic Journal
The paper presents a macroeconomic equilibrium model in which aggregate demand and aggregate supp... more The paper presents a macroeconomic equilibrium model in which aggregate demand and aggregate supply are considered not in relation to the price level, as is traditionally done, but in terms of functions dependent on the average tax rate. Based on an analysis of the model, it is shown that when the government tries to maintain the equilibrium average tax rate at a fixed level, the optimal tax rate becomes dependent on the price level, and an appropriate change in aggregate demand may lead to approximation of the optimal rate to the equilibrium rate.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
In contemporary economic theories, the role of taxes is studied one-sidedly. Keynesianism mostly ... more In contemporary economic theories, the role of taxes is studied one-sidedly. Keynesianism mostly emphasizes the mechanisms by which taxes affect the economy through aggregate demand and almost does not take into account the mechanism of their effect on the aggregate supply-side. The problem of taxes is also seen one-sidedly by supply-side economics, in which the effect of the tax rate on aggregate supply is brought to the fore. The paper presents a macroeconomic equilibrium model in which aggregate demand and aggregate supply are considered not in relation to the price level, as is traditionally done, but in terms of functions dependent on the average tax rate. The concepts of optimal and equilibrium tax rates are introduced. Based on an analysis of the model, it is shown that when the government tries to maintain the equilibrium average tax rate at a fixed level, the optimal tax rate becomes dependent on the price level, and an appropriate change in aggregate demand may lead to approximation of the optimal rate to the equilibrium rate. It is also demonstrated that each given value of the equilibrium tax rate can be matched with a set of functions and curves of aggregate supply and the national budget's tax revenues. © 2013 Bull. Georg. Natl. Acad. Sci.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
Based on an analysis of a modified version of the standard Keynesian Model of a product market, i... more Based on an analysis of a modified version of the standard Keynesian Model of a product market, it is shown that a change in the average tax rate has a complex effect on aggregate demand. Depending on the marginal propensity of households to consume and the marginal propensity for government purchases, an increase in the average tax rate may lead to either a decrease or an increase in aggregate demand. In this case, since the parameter of marginal propensities to purchase is easily regulated, by selecting its appropriate value the government can purposefully use a tax increase to stimulate or to reduce aggregate demand. © 2012 Bull. Georg. Natl. Acad. Sci.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
The article examines the approach to estimating the effect of the tax burden on the amount of tot... more The article examines the approach to estimating the effect of the tax burden on the amount of total output and budget revenues. This approach uses a behavioral model, with a specific version of an entropy function. In the context of production technology, to quantitatively estimate the dependence of output on the amount of the tax burden, the article reflects the expansions of the macroeconomic production function in which the role of the average tax rate is distinguished in some form. The suggested model makes it possible to determine the so-called fiscal points corresponding to the maximum production effect and the budget's maximum tax revenues. The conclusion is drawn that, these points correspond to the Laffer concept, since for the points of the behavioral model the amount of use of economic resources occurs endogenously. The results obtained are illustrated using existing data on the U.S. economy. When different versions of the calculations were carried out, the estimated model as a whole, as well as its parameters, maintained its stability and did not lose its statistical significance in a fairly broad range of changes in the "sample size." Even when the quality of the model deteriorated (the parameters being estimated became statistically insignificant) as a result of excessive reduction of the sample size, the estimates of the fiscal characteristics changed only slightly. This is not sufficient grounds for drawing final conclusions about the suitability of the suggested model for conducting specific applied calculations.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
The problem of impact tax burden on economic activity and production capacity is very popular amo... more The problem of impact tax burden on economic activity and production capacity is very popular among economists. This paper is a response to the article published by Intellectual Economics in 2012 (No. 4) whose contents, unfortunately, constitute plagiarism. Several parts of the article comprise information taken from different publications under our authorship. This paper gives a brief analysis of the most recent results related to the development of the main ideas of supply-side economics based on the Laffer-Keynesian Synthesis.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
ABSTRACT Keynesian models deal with the situation when aggregate supply is not dependent on tax r... more ABSTRACT Keynesian models deal with the situation when aggregate supply is not dependent on tax rates, while aggregate demand, especially the part of it that relates to consumption, is the function of taxes. Supply-side economics also considers only a single aspect of the tax issue in the Laffer Curve, which emphasizes the impact of the tax rate on aggregate supply. The single-sidedness of the above theories can be overcome by the Laffer-Keynesian Synthesis. The model of macroeconomic equilibrium allows for this synthesis, in which aggregate demand and aggregate supply are represented as functions of the tax burden.
Problems of Economic Transition, 2012
The article examines two different approaches to estimating the effect of the tax burden on the a... more The article examines two different approaches to estimating the effect of the tax burden on the amount of total output and budget revenues. The first approach is based on a transformation model, in which the main role is played by a production function with variable elasticity. The second approach uses a behavioral model, with a specific version of an entropy function. Both models make it possible to determine the so-called fiscal points corresponding to the maximum production effect and the budget's maximum tax revenues. The conclusion is drawn that, of these points, only the points of the behavioral model correspond to the Laffer concept, since for points derived from the transformation model the amount of use of economic resources is exogenous, while for the points of the behavioral model this amount occurs endogenously. The results obtained are illustrated using existing data on the U.S. economy.
Problems of Economic Transition, 2012
02 Ananiashvili-Papava.indd 22 2/23/2012 10:12:53 AM function of taxes. The problem of taxes is a... more 02 Ananiashvili-Papava.indd 22 2/23/2012 10:12:53 AM function of taxes. The problem of taxes is also seen one-sidedly by supply-side economics, in which the effect of the tax rate on aggregate supply is brought to the fore. The role of taxes can be fully explained, and the one-sided nature of these two theories can be overcome through a synthesis of supply-side economics and Keynesianism, which was first suggested by one of the present authors. The model presented below is a further development of this idea of a Laffer-Keynesian synthesis. It is based on a macroeconomic equilibrium model that consists of aggregate demand and aggregate supply functions. However, in contrast to the standard models of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, these functions are analyzed not in the coordinates of a plane on the axes of which values of the price level P and output Y are shown, but on a plane in which the vertical axis corresponds to the average tax rate t; and the horizontal axis, to output Y. In this model, the price level, together with the rest of the factors that affect aggregate demand and aggregate supply, is exogenously given.
Problems of Economic Transition, 2012
Based on an analysis of a modified version of the standard Keynesian model of a product market, i... more Based on an analysis of a modified version of the standard Keynesian model of a product market, it is shown that a change in the average tax rate has a complex effect on aggregate demand. Depending on the marginal propensity of households to consume and the marginal propensity for government purchases, an increase in the average tax rate may lead to either a decrease or an increase in aggregate demand. In this case, since the parameter of marginal propensities to purchase is easily regulated, by selecting its appropriate value the government can purposefully use a tax increase to stimulate or to reduce aggregate demand.