Almaz Akhmetov | University of Tsukuba (original) (raw)

Books by Almaz Akhmetov

Oil, gas, coal and uranium reserves of Kazakhstan are among the biggest in the world. Therefore, ... more Oil, gas, coal and uranium reserves of Kazakhstan are among the biggest in the world. Therefore, energy production is based on relatively cheap fossil fuels. However, it is little known about enormous renewable energy potential of Kazakhstan. In this study, potential of wind power was assessed and power outputs for nine sites were estimated. Additionally, the environmental improving effects were estimated and the cost analysis revealed that the reduction of external cost of power generation in the amount of 22 billion Kazakhstani Tenge could be achieved as the direct substitution of thermal power. Finally, multi-criteria assessment of candidate sites was performed using objective weighting method in order to identify the possibility of successful deployment of wind power in Kazakhstan.

Papers by Almaz Akhmetov

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2015

Ensuring the security of the demand for energy exports and the supply of external energy is among... more Ensuring the security of the demand for energy exports and the supply of external energy is among the top priorities for Central Asian republics. This paper utilizes disaggregated risky external energy supply (REES) and risky energy exports demand (REED) indexes to measure the securities of energy supply and energy demand in the region. The results are compared to the indexes in the European Union (EU) and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Furthermore, this paper measures individual contribution of each Central Asian country to the regional risk exposure to disruptions of energy export demand and external energy supply. The REES indexes for coal and gas of Central Asian energy-importing countries are lower than in the EU, while the regional oil RESS index for oil is significantly higher than in the EU. The average REED indexes for both crude oil and gas are significantly lower than in OPEC economies

Environment and Natural Resources Journal, 2018

Oil, gas, coal and uranium reserves of Kazakhstan are among the largest in the world. The abundan... more Oil, gas, coal and uranium reserves of Kazakhstan are among the largest in the world. The abundance of these reserves led the country to primarily rely on fossil fuel based energy production. Due to this factor little known about enormous renewable energy potential of Kazakhstan. In particular, one of the most promising sources of renewable energy in Kazakhstan is the wind power. In this regard, the UNDP in its Wind Power Market Development Initiative identified potential nine wind power sites in the country. The average annual wind speed of all sites, at a height of 80 meters around 7.5 m/s. The estimated output of the sites satisfy 2% of electricity demand of Kazakhstan by 2014. This paper assesses Kazakhstan's potential and estimates power outputs for all locations using technical data of turbine. Further, the paper discusses the following obstacles that prevent the introduction of wind farms in Kazakhstan: a) structure of the national b) legislative issues and c) possible or...

Energy and Environment Research, 2014

Revue d'économie financière, Dec 1, 2022

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2021

The changes in industrial structure of Kazakhstan resulted in significant transformation on its C... more The changes in industrial structure of Kazakhstan resulted in significant transformation on its CO2 emissions profile. Understanding the driving factors in CO2 emissions profile is essential given the emissions reduction targets committed by Kazakhstan. The study applies Index Decomposition Analysis to identify factors affecting industrial CO2 emissions caused by fossil fuel combustion for the period 1990-2011. The results of the analysis indicated that the main factor affecting increase in total industrial emissions was the change in the industrial activity, while improvements in energy intensity helped to reduce the emissions. Analysis of six subsectors was used to define the main reasons underlying changes in CO2 emissions. The study underlines policy contradictions between national plans on expansion of carbon intense commodity based industries and Kazakhstan’s international commitments on CO2 reduction. Furthermore, the changes in structure of industrial output towards overreli...

This paper uses Vector Autoregression (VAR) models to test the presence of the Dutch disease in K... more This paper uses Vector Autoregression (VAR) models to test the presence of the Dutch disease in Kazakhstan. It was found that tradable industries and world oil price have immediate effect on domestic currency appreciation. This in return has delayed negative impact on agricultural production and positive delayed effect on non-tradable industries. Prolonged period of low oil prices could hurt Kazakh economy if no effective policies to combat the negative effects of the Dutch disease are implemented.

Environment and Natural Resources Journal, 2019

Assessment of radioactive pollution of the Syrdarya river was carried out. A large num... more Assessment of radioactive pollution of the Syrdarya river was carried out. A large number of water samples were collected over a twelve-year period from three zones: upstream of uranium mines; around uranium mines; and downstream of the mines. Samples were analyzed for gross α-, β-activity and radionuclideconcentrations. Gross α-activity exceeded the permissible level in almost every water sample. Both gross α-and β-activity in Baigekum village and PV-1 mine significantly exceeded safe levels throughout entire monitoring period. Concentrations of 230Th and 210Pb surpassed the national intervention levels in almost all water samples. In a number of samples from Baigekum village excessive concentration of 226Ra was observed. Furthermore, water samples collected from Tabakbulak in the spring of 2009 had extremely high levels of radionuclides. In general, elevated levels of radionuclides had been observed around the uranium mines and down the stream of Syrdarya since 2008-2009 when industrial-level production started at Zarechnoye, Khorasan and Irkol uranium deposits. The results suggest that radioactive pollution of Syrdarya in Kazakhstan is primarily caused by uranium mining activities. It is likely that the Syrdarya waters are not only unpalatable for human, but it may also not be suitable for household and agricultural use due to radioactive pollution.

Inadequate electricity access limits human development and affects quality of life in Africa. Hen... more Inadequate electricity access limits human development and affects quality of life in Africa. Hence, the improvement of electricity access has become a cornerstone of the African energy policy. This study proposes the use of satellite derived data of nighttime lighting and population count and Index Decomposition Analysis (IDA) to identify the driving factors for changes in electricity consumption in Africa between 2000 and 2013. The results of decomposition analysis indicated that population growth throughout the continent resulted in increased electricity consumption, while other factors had different effects. The results of this study could contribute to the design of better energy policy to achieve sustainable development of the continent.

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2015

Environment and Natural Resources Journal, 2018

Energy and Environment Research, 2014

Revue d'économie financière, Dec 1, 2022

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2021

Environment and Natural Resources Journal, 2019

Ensuring the security of the demand for energy exports and the supply of external energy is among... more Ensuring the security of the demand for energy exports and the supply of external energy is among the top priorities for Central Asian republics. This paper utilizes disaggregated Risky Energy Supply (REES) and Risky Energy Exports Demand (REED) indexes to measure the securities of energy supply and energy demand in the region. The results are compared to the indexes in the European Union (EU) and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Furthermore, this paper measures individual contribution of each Central Asian country to the regional risk exposure to disruptions of energy export demand and external energy supply. The REES indexes for coal and gas of Central Asian energy-importing countries are lower than in the EU, while the regional oil RESS index for oil is significantly higher than in the EU. The average REED indexes for both crude oil and gas are significantly lower than in OPEC economies.

Respiratory diseases, like asthma and other chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, claim over 50 ... more Respiratory diseases, like asthma and other chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, claim over 50 thousand lives annually in Kazakhstan according to the national statistics. Many studies revealed that there is a relationship between coal and respiratory disease. However, the link is much less visible and well known for ordinary people than smoking and air pollution from automobiles.

This study examines the national level relationship between the coal production and use, and the respiratory health in Kazakhstan during the country’s independency period. The relationships of production and consumption of different fossil fuel as well as the number of automobiles and respiratory health of the nation were tested. The empirical results show that the respiratory diseases appear to be elastic relative to the coal production. The evidence shows that 1% increase in the coal production will result in 0.6% increase in respiratory diseases. Furthermore, if coal production grows as projected by the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the respiratory diseases are expected to reach almost 6 million cases by 2030.

In addition to the quantitative research, a survey among the residents of a small village in Kazakhstan suggests a correlation between the indoor air pollution from coal use and steady increase in health deterioration. The survey attempts to define the level of awareness of infirmary patients about the health problems induced by the environmental pollution. The majority of the patients indicated ecological pollution as the main cause of their health problems. Furthermore, it was identified that the respondents experience fuel poverty.

"Нехватка электроэнергии остается острой проблемой в Таджикистане, который в отсутствие запасов и... more "Нехватка электроэнергии остается острой проблемой в Таджикистане, который в отсутствие запасов ископаемого топлива вынужден полагаться исключительно на свои гидроэнергетические сооружения. После обретения независимости и последующего экономического спада, импорт ископаемого топлива, которое использовалось для отопления жилых зданий, снизился в 10 раз. В то же время, отсутствие каких-либо других вариантов отопления привело к значительному увеличению потребления электроэнергии в стране. В результате гидроэнергетическая отрасль не способна обеспечить высокий спрос на электроэнергию в зимний период.
Сотни существующих муниципальных и жилых зданий были построены в советское время, и отличаются низкой энергоэффективностью. С целью решения данной проблемы Агентство США по Международному Развитию (USAID) и Региональный Экологический Центр Центральной Азии приступили к реализации проекта "Энергоэффективность в зданиях Таджикистана". Целью проекта является демонстрация технических возможностей для повышения энергоэффективности жилых домов на базе пилотного проекта в г.Душанбе; наращивание потенциала в проведении технических мероприятий по повышению энергоэффективности и распространение соответствующих технологий и практик; cоциально-экономическая оценка возможных местных программ по созданию основ для механизма финансирования мероприятий по повышению энергоэффективности в г. Душанбе и в других городах Таджикистана.
Результаты проведенных исследований и пилотных проектов позволяют сделать вывод о потенциале снижения электропотребления в жилых многоквартирных зданиях в Душанбе от 25 до 35% в зимний период, в зависимости от типа здания, в основном за счет мероприятий по утеплению зданий. Среди выявленных барьеров для продвижения энергоэффективности: низкие тарифы на электроэнергию, а также недостаточная институциональная основа."

Данный экспертно-аналитический отчет предоставляет собой обзор текущей ситуации в области энергос... more Данный экспертно-аналитический отчет предоставляет собой обзор текущей ситуации в области энергосбережения и методов повышения энергоэффективности электроприборов в пяти странах Центральной Азии (Казахстан, Кыргызстан, Таджикистан, Туркменистан и Узбекистан). Отчет содержит информацию по динамике производства и потребления электроэнергии в этих странах, тенденции потребления электроэнергии жилищным сектором, анализ наиболее распространенных видов бытовой техники, а также оценку объемов потребления электроэнергии домохозяйствами в странах ЦА. Помимо этого, отчет освещает прогресс стран по внедрению стандартов и маркировки энергоэффективности электроприборов, а также статус нормативно-правовой базы и институциональной основы в этой сфере. На основании собранных данных, отчет предлагает ряд рекомендаций по дальнейшим действиям, направленным на реализацию политики в области стандартов и маркировки энергоэффективности электроприборов в странах Центральной Азии.

Presentation of working paper "Effect of Kazakh Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) on Industrial Ener... more Presentation of working paper "Effect of Kazakh Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) on Industrial Energy Intensities"

The cap-and-trade ETS reflects the government’s commitments to promote sustainable development an... more The cap-and-trade ETS reflects the government’s commitments to promote sustainable development and reduce the environmental impact of Kazakhstan’s economy. The ETS covers enterprises with the annual CO2 emissions exceeding 20,000 tons/year from oil and gas sector, mining, metallurgy, the chemical industry and the power sector. Allocated CO2 emissions quotas are at a range of 0% from the baseline in 2014 and 1.5% in 2015.
Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method is used to decompose CO2 emissions of the industries (power, coal, oil and gas production and refining, oil and gas transport and distribution, iron and steel industry, non-ferrous metals and chemical industry). CO2 emissions of the industries are decomposed to five explanatory factors: activity, energy intensity, fuel mix, emission factor and the volume of non-energy activities. It is assumed that emission factor and fuel mix do not change due the short time frame under investigation. Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario is constructed based on industry-specific outlook and required energy intensities are estimated.
The results indicate different level of energy intensity improvements for industries. The energy savings for power, iron and steel, non-ferrous metals and chemical would constitute 1.7%, 16%, 11% and 28% respectively, implying the different level of penetration of the best available technologies. Coal is the only industry expected to decline its output throughout 2014-2015 period, resulting in CO2 emissions below its permit. Total energy savings from energy intensity reduction is going to reach 53.25 PJ in relation to baseline year and 150.79 PJ in relation to BAU scenario.
However, it is possible CO2 emissions reductions could be achieved without any technical innovation and energy efficiency improvement due to probable industrial output decline due to low oil prices as a result of the Dutch disease in Kazakhstan. Furthermore, it is possible that wide-spread corruption and lack of integrity of enterprises could result in significant underreporting of CO2 emissions, which in result inhibit the ETS aims.

Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1 Background information 1.2 Scope of the problem 1.3 Research framew... more Chapter 1 Introduction
1.1 Background information
1.2 Scope of the problem
1.3 Research framework
Chapter 2 Energy Profiles of Central Asian Countries: Current Status and Future Prospects
2.1 Kazakhstan
2.2 Kyrgyz Republic
2.3 Tajikistan
2.4 Turkmenistan
2.5 Uzbekistan
2.6 Measuring the Security of External Energy Supply and Energy Export Demand in Central Asia
2.6.1 Methodology
2.6.2 Data
2.6.3 Results and Policy Implications
2.7 Summary
Chapter 3 Economy, Energy and the Environment in Kazakhstan
3.1 Economy of Kazakhstan
3.2 Energy System
3.2.1 Fossil Fuel
3.2.2 Coal
3.2.3 Crude Oil and Natural Gas
3.3 Environmental Problems in Kazakhstan
3.4 Modeling CO2 Emissions, Energy Use, and Economic Growth
3.4.1 Methodology
3.4.2 Data
3.4.3 Empirical Findings
3.5 The Dutch Disease in Kazakhstan
3.5.1 Methodology
3.5.2 Data
3.5.3 Empirical Findings
3.6 Summary
Chapter 4 Decomposition Analysis of Industry Sector CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion in Kazakhstan
4.1 Methodology
4.2 Data
4.3 Empirical Findings
4.4 Summary
Chapter 5 Power Industry
5.1 Electricity Generation
5.2 Commercial Heat Generation
5.3 Life Cycle Assessment of Commercial Heat and Electricity Production
5.3.1 Goal and Scope
5.3.2 Data
5.3.3 Methodology
5.3.4 Pre-Combustion
5.3.5 Combustion
5.3.6 Results and Discussion
5.3.7 External Costs of Power Production
5.4 Health Effects of Coal: A Long-Run Relationship Assessment of Coal Production and Respiratory Health in Kazakhstan
5.4.1 Methodology
5.4.2 Data
5.4.3 Empirical Findings
5.5 Potential of Renewable Energy in Kazakhstan
5.5.1 Solar Energy
5.5.2 Biomass and Geothermal Energy
5.5.3 Hydropower
5.6 Summary
Chapter 6 Wind Power in Kazakhstan
6.1 Wind Climates and Local Winds
6.2 Potential Assessment
6.2.1 Data
6.2.2 Methodology
6.2.3 Results and Discussion
6.3 Environmental Improving Effect of Wind Energy
6.4 Cost of Wind Energy
6.5 Multi-Criteria Analysis of Wind Power
6.5.1 Criteria Selection
6.5.2 Technical Criteria
6.5.3 Environmental Criteria
6.5.4 Socioeconomic Criteria
6.5.5 Methodology
6.5.6 Results and Discussion
6.6 Summary
Chapter 7 Green Growth Strategy of Kazakhstan
7.1 Effect of Kazakh Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) on Industrial Energy Intensities
7.1.1 Methodology
7.1.2 Data
7.1.3 Results and Discussions
7.2 Summary
Chapter 8 Conclusions and Policy Implications
8.1 Policy Recommendations