Serhat S Çubukçuoğlu | Tufts University (original) (raw)

Papers by Serhat S Çubukçuoğlu

This research looks at Turkey’s journey for democratization in its historical context for the las... more This research looks at Turkey’s journey for democratization in its historical context for the last two hundred years with the objective to assess whether the process is strictly path-dependent. The study for this paper is based on empirical evidence found in academic literature, documents readily available in the public domain, and public statements from primary sources of academic, civil, and diplomatic backgrounds. Considering a dilemma of whether it is possible to build liberal institutions in a repressive system or it would be better to build liberal institutions and a democratic electoral system simultaneously, this research finds that repressive regimes undermine liberal institutions and offer an unrealistic alternative to a gradual, inclusive evolution of democracy. What distinguished modern Turkey from autocratic regimes of the Middle East is not electoral majoritarianism that pre-conditioned a strict sequencing of public order and liberalization first, but the embodiment of...

ULUSAM, 2020

Geopolitics of the eastern Mediterranean Sea is heightened in importance primarily due to issues ... more Geopolitics of the eastern Mediterranean Sea is heightened in importance primarily due to issues related to maritime claims, access, and the quest for energy resources. Rights to demarcate, protect, and exploit Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) are increasingly considered as significant aspects of sea power, strategy and security. In the light of recent hydrocarbon discoveries, a certain sense of disagreement has arisen among littoral states on how to equitably share the off-shore wealth, leading to formation of a U.S.-backed allied group named the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF). Against the backdrop of this development, Turkey and North Cyprus (TRNC) increasingly find themselves isolated from the energy conundrum. This article seeks to examine the mounting instability in the eastern Mediterranean particularly with regards to rising energy geopolitics, alliance behavior, and challenges in monetization of the region’s recently discovered natural gas resources. By addressing a range of political, economic, and military insecurity issues related to offshore hydrocarbons, this research highlights possible emergent threats, challenges, opportunities, and responsibilities for related actors.
The article conceptually views “alliance building” within the broader context of the term “negotiation” itself. Intrinsically, the assessment recognizes the essential multilateral component in international relations and analyses issues that illustrate how factors in the possession, supply, and distribution of energy resources may impact the outlook of conflict and cooperation in the region. It is argued that coalitional arrangements in the EEZ dispute depict deal-making behavior and are inherently voluntary and unstable. Turkey and North Cyprus should be able to engage all stakeholders and create a positive atmosphere to invent options for mutual gain and try to pull away some members of the EMGF coalition, by carrots and sticks, if not form an alternative coalition of their own. This can reduce risks and vulnerabilities associated with the endeavor of accessing, exploring, and exploiting energy resources in the region. The article ultimately seeks to discuss the instruments through which hydrocarbon security challenges can be addressed such as advancement of intensive political engagement among conflicting parties to build confidence and resolve fundamental differences over competing claims of maritime delimitation, and of multilateral maritime security governance in the region, particularly in reference to the role of regional alliances.

Turkish Energy Strategies and Politics Research Center, 2020

The long-standing disputes over the South China Sea (SCS) started in 2009 when China submitted wh... more The long-standing disputes over the South China Sea (SCS) started in 2009 when China submitted what is known as the “nine-dash line” to the United Nations (UN), causing tensions that remain ebb and flow. However, the maps that China claims were published long before, in 1947, with then the “eleven-dash” forming a U-shaped line. The disputes involve China, Taiwan and four other Association of the South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states: the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei and Malaysia. The conflict, however, is mostly dominated by China, Vietnam and the Philippines with Spratly and Paracel islands under contention. The significance of the sea relies on the fact that it connects to North East Asia and the Western Pacific Ocean and offers the shortest routes between the two and contains major sea lanes of communication. The shipping passage constitutes one-third of the global maritime trade. Moreover, what exists below the surface is an equally significant factor: a projected 28 billion barrels of oil, 260 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and ten percent of the world’s fish stocks. Consequently, overlapping claims and the idea to defend their territories have been clearly defined.

Energy Policy Turkey, 2019

The war in Syrian has destroyed livelihoods of the local civilian population and created severe s... more The war in Syrian has destroyed livelihoods of the local civilian population and created severe spillover effects for neighbor countries that undermine regional stability. With the country slowly rising back on its feet, and YPG/PKK gradually pacified, there is an opportunity for regional cooperation among Turkey, Russia, Syria, Lebanon, and North Cyprus to reinstate trade partnerships, recreate wealth and prosperity for their people. Syria’s future welfare is closely linked with rising energy geopolitics in the eastern Mediterranean. Due to a certain sense of competition to gain access, explore, and exploit offshore hydrocarbons, Turkey and Syria can jointly play a crucial role if they can tighten their ranks against the EMGF and lead the formation of an alternative alliance. In 2010, Ankara and Damascus had signed an agreement to waive visas and expand their bilateral trade, together with Jordan and Lebanon, that would facilitate regional economic integration. It is not too late to revive this initiative. If there is political will on both sides, the right time might have come to cement this much- necessary partnership.

Turkish Journal of Energy Policy, 2018

Issues related to maritime claims, access, and the quest for energy resources have always been co... more Issues related to maritime claims, access, and the quest for energy resources have always been considered as significant aspects of sea power, strategy and security. The Eastern Mediterranean at the turn of the 21st century is not an exception to that, particularly in the light of recent hydrocarbon discoveries in the region. This paper seeks to examine the mounting instability in the Eastern Mediterranean particularly with regards to rising energy geopolitics. By addressing a range of political, social, military, and economic insecurity issues related to off-shore hydrocarbons, this research highlights possible emergent threats, challenges, opportunities, and responsibilities for related actors.
The paper conceptually views “hydrocarbon insecurity” within the broader context of the term “security” itself. Intrinsically, the assessment recognizes the essential maritime component in international relations and analyses issues that illustrate how factors in the possession, supply, and distribution of energy resources may impact the outlook of conflict and cooperation in the region. It is argued that the intensive political engagement should be advanced among conflicting parties to build confidence and resolve fundamental differences over competing claims of maritime delimitation. This can reduce risks and vulnerabilities associated with the endeavor of accessing, exploring, and exploiting energy resources in the region. The paper ultimately seeks to discuss the instruments through which hydrocarbon security challenges can be addressed such as advancement of regional security order and of multilateral maritime security governance in the region, particularly in reference to the role of regional alliances.

Diversification of supply sources especially with a focus on local renewables would cement robust... more Diversification of supply sources especially with a focus on local renewables would cement robust economic development while, at the same time, large scale projects would undoubtedly bring economies of scale in procurement, installation, hence driving down costs and increasing efficiency. In an era of low energy prices where pressures are high to undertake cost-cutting measures and scrap extravagant projects throughout the Middle East, it is crucial to take advantage of local resources, increase infrastructure capacity, and competitiveness. These coupled with Turkey’s strategic location at the cross-roads between major producers of the Middle East and demand centers of Europe, make it an ideal target of energy import and export project proposals as well as a potential energy transit hub. With a more liberal
market, renewables trade, and emission reductions efforts, Turkey has all the potential to put itself on the map as an ever more important player in energy geopolitics.

Oil’s role as the most important commodity in the world is evident in its impact on political dev... more Oil’s role as the most important commodity in the world is evident in its impact on political developments around the world. As the epicenter of the global economy and the demand for oil shifts from the West to fast-growing Asian markets, the Middle East has gained competitive advantage and heightened in importance by its crucial geostrategic location, both as a rich supplier and as a conduit. Oil’s role as the most important commodity in the world is evident in its impact on political developments around the world. As the epicenter of the global economy and the demand for oil shifts from the West to fast-growing Asian markets, the Middle East has gained competitive advantage and heightened in importance by its crucial geostrategic location, both as a rich supplier and as a conduit. requires vigilance to shifting regional dynamics and raises sensitivities to realities of the multipolar world order. Great power politics occupies an important place in world affairs, albeit to a smaller extent in comparison to a unipolar or bipolar order. Regional alliances are formed with greater flexibility, creating micro spheres of influence, and raising uncertainty. The US assumes an offshore balancer role with focus on Asia-Pacific while the Middle East appears ever-more divided along ethnic, religious, and sectarian lines. Iran and Saudi Arabia, the two arch-rivals of the Gulf, aim to improve their standing while Turkey and Israel play pivotal roles to sustain their influence over developments in the region. The ultimate arena of this power politics is Syria, the fate of which depends on negotiation skills of intervening parties to create a framework agreement where there are no winners or losers.

It all started in Tunisia on 18 December 2010 and reordered many countries in the Arabic Geograph... more It all started in Tunisia on 18 December
2010 and reordered many countries in the
Arabic Geography. Whereas some governments
could not manage the upheaval and
collapsed, some others had to face heavy civil
disorder-protests and occurrences of necessary
governmental reorganizations.
Many experts have studied and further analyzed
the whole aspects of this Arab Spring
by the sight of economics, military, sociology,
religion and global politics. Obviously, there
are definite changes in reorders of those affected
countries and so their presence in the
globe requires new policies. As a short note,
today’s world largely depends on energy politics
because they seem to play a key role in
determining global policies. From a point
of view, it is unclear why nobody has yet reviewed
results of the Arab Spring through the
sight of energy policies. It is a good idea to
note that if not all, most of these countries
are definitely oil producers and their folks
crave for democracy, which indeed has taken
too many lives to owe. Was it worth taking
the initiative and walking the democracy line
with heavy loses and uncertain future due
to lack of knowledge and control over militia
groups? Maybe, those folks had no idea
about the outcome but the West knew about
how hard the transition would be. Major oil
companies like to have the edge to act independently
or run their international affairs as
smooth as possible. They would prefer surpassing
governments and their laws to extract
and sell oil from known commercial reserves.
Or perhaps, their preference would be causing
some changes that are essential as far as
who controls the laws or the oil markets in
such countries.
Understanding the causes of the Arab Spring,
the outcome of collapses, rebuilding and
highlighting the effective changes in energy
politics, balance and role of key oil players in
Africa and Middle East will help determine
how global politics have been reshaped over
Arabic upheaval. To do that, all current import
and export rates of the due countries,
existing reserves, production and infrastructure
of exports, international investors and
companies in the region and important projects
will be considered. In addition, pre-Arab
Spring Era situations will be compared with
the current values and changes in energy
games will be identified.

The Middle East is often referred to as a perennial geopolitical hotspot, the bedrock of shifting... more The Middle East is often referred to as a perennial
geopolitical hotspot, the bedrock of
shifting power play of partnerships, and constant
shift of alliances – all in the midst of
emerging and demising local powers. Iran sits
at the epicenter of this political, economic and
social development in the neighborhood. On
one hand, as a prominent OPEC member,
Iran quietly aims to exert influence through
energy diplomacy in its relentless pursuit
to elevate its rank from a regional to global
power status. On the other hand, resting on
a young, educated population with rich energy
reserves and vast terminal capacity on the
Gulf, Iran’s engagement in bold expansion
policies has an underlying intention to boost
its hegemony in the region and to play the
role of a great power in world political affairs.
Iran is the second largest economy in the
Middle East and North Africa (MENA) after
Saudi Arabia – its main regional rival, whose
economic activity and government revenues
still depend largely on oil revenues and
therefore remain volatile.1 While the western
sanctions have reduced Iranian oil exports by
about two thirds, causing Iranian currency
“Rial” constantly to depreciate its value, the
World Bank estimates that Iran will grow by
1.9% in 2015.2 Iran’s current oil production
is just over 3 million b/d3 and while this is
expected to increase after the lifting of all
sanctions, in reality, it can add no more than
300,000 – 500,000 b/d barrels to its actual
oil production due to fast depleting oil fields
and underinvested infrastructure.4 Before
the Islamic Revolution, in 1974, Iran was a
regional ally of Israel and had received close
support of the U.S. administration to start
its controversial nuclear program for peaceful
purposes, due to fast maturing oil fields and
excessive production under the Shah regime.
The situation met with bitter sanctions in the
wake of post-revolution Iran-Iraq War, when
Iran tried to achieve military self-sufficiency
and re-initiated the program, casting serious
concerns in the west towards Iran’s hidden
agenda.
While Iran’s ambitious plans to reach
pre-sanctions oil output is welcome by keen
observes in western energy circles, the truth
is that Iran will need years to repair the damage
on its existing infrastructure to reach that
capacity amid sharp increase in domestic consumption.
With oil production is at its highest
levels since 1960s and a world-wide excess
output of 2m b/d, the profitability of such
an investment on the scale of $200 billion5 is
questionable as oil markets already face a persistent
glut that has more than halved prices
in the past 16 months.6 OPEC’s published official
statistical data that puts Iran’s proven oil
reserves at 157 bb has been falsified by various
researches, the average of whose estimates
is between 30-35 bb.7 In fact, perhaps ironically,
Iraq, OPEC’s second largest oil producer
has almost the double of this amount at
77 bb, proven but undeveloped reserves, with
production cost of $1 per barrel in contrast to 3−3-3−4 in Iran.8
With the nuclear accord signed between P5+1
and Iran in Vienna on 14th of July 2015,
Iran is expected to gradually lift trade barriers
and receive an influx of western technology
to help modernize its aging infrastructure.
This will increase capital investment; enable
development projects, and increase spending.
As oil prices begin to surge towards 60−60-60−70
mark by 2017, Iran will expand trade with its
partners, although it is still far over the horizon
to see its production capacity to jump to
5.7m b/d level, or even the 4.8m b/d, as targeted
by Iran’s Ministry of Energy.9

Orderism presents an alternative worldview to liberalism whereby its adherents criticize perceive... more Orderism presents an alternative worldview to liberalism whereby its adherents criticize perceived ineffectiveness and injustice of the international system of governance, eroding moral values, and unequal distribution of globalization’s benefits. Each country may undergo its unique journey to embrace modernity and it should not be presupposed that a simple universalist perspective of liberal democracy is the right fit for every culture in every circumstance. Nevertheless, a trend towards a more authoritarian leadership that rolls back liberal reforms sets a country on a dangerous course that perpetuates isolation, corruption, and ultimately tyranny. Beyond the initial stage of having a functioning state-bureaucracy, economic development should go hand-in-hand with liberal policies. On the other hand, international institutions should evolve to organize around a more inclusive structure in order to mitigate negative impacts of asymmetric power relations, help welfare growth in disadvantaged nations, and more effectively deal with contemporary conflicts. It is through economic interdependence and accommodation of different traditions, values, and contributions that peaceful co-existence may be possible.

Bir süredir bilindiği gibi Güney Çin Denizi’ndeki aidiyeti tartışmalı ada, adacık ve kayalıklar s... more Bir süredir bilindiği gibi Güney Çin Denizi’ndeki aidiyeti tartışmalı ada, adacık ve kayalıklar sebebiyle Çin’in bölge ülkelerinin yanı sıra ABD ile de arası oldukça gergindir. Filipinler ve Çin arasında 2013 yılında alevlenen Scarborough Resifi üzerindeki karşılıklı hakimiyet mücadelesi ve buna bağlı olarak Çin’in tarihi “dokuz kesik çizgili” deniz sınır haritasına dayandırdığı egemenlik iddiaları Lahey’deki Uluslararası Daimi Arbitraj Kurumu’na taşınmış durumdadır. Genel olarak bilinenin aksine Arbitraj Kurumu bir mahkeme olmamasının yanısıra bölgedeki kara parçaları üzerinde cereyan eden egemenlik iddialarını karara bağlayıcı yetkili bir merci de değildir. Beş üyeden oluşan Arbitraj Makamı Filipinler açıklarında bulunan Scarborough Resifi ve Spratly adacıklarının deniz yetki alanlarını belirleyen bir hükme varacak; Çin’in Mischief Resifi çevresine yapay adacık ve askeri üsler inşa ederek deniz kirliliğine neden olup olmadığını ve bu faaliyetlerin uluslararası hukuka uygunluğunu belirleyecektir. Arbitraj Kurumu’nun 12 Temmuz 2016 tarihinde kararını açıklaması beklenmektedir.

Cyprus and Turkey are interdependent in a positive-sum game. The negotiation may proceed more pro... more Cyprus and Turkey are interdependent in a positive-sum game. The negotiation may proceed more productively when all that is explicitly sought is the generally obtainable goal of mutual advantage, instead of explicit pursuit of fairness and proportionality. All parties should keep the channels open for discussion to overcome frictions on long-entrenched opposing views on each other’s rights and avoid falling into the trap of “they are bad, we are good”. This would ensure maximum utilisation of opportunities for offshore gas exploitation in a limited time window by picking the most commercially viable option to reach energy consumer markets. The key guiding principle should be to avoid brinkmanship during the process and to draw Greek and Turkish Cypriots into a multilateral agreement with Turkey and Greece.

While sovereign rights for researching and developing the underwater resources belong to the enti... more While sovereign rights for researching and developing the underwater resources belong to the entire island of Cyprus, not exclusively to Greek Cypriots, Turkey should foster a constructive dialogue whereby parties are able to invent options for mutual gains more easily and dismiss the assumption of a fixed pie. The sequencing strategy for coalition building should be Backward Mapping: Turkey should attract the needed decision makers such as the US, Russia, and Greece to itself, utilizing overall patterns of deference and influence.

Turkey should accelerate proceedings of the bi-national working group with Greece – the only country that has diplomatic relations with Ankara at ambassador level among parties to the conflict – to explore opportunities for energy cooperation, re-iterate its commitment to multilateral negotiations in good faith for peaceful settlement in Cyprus, proclaim its own EEZ, and as a last resort consider to take the case for adjudication to the ICJ. With all its weight, Turkey should pursue criteria for legitimacy, continue hydrocarbon search on behalf of Northern Cyprus, and once again call for a freeze on Greek Cypriot hydrocarbon activities and re-launch of the peace talks.

Judaism, Christianity and Islam have developed their distinct characteristics over time. As monot... more Judaism, Christianity and Islam have developed their distinct characteristics over time. As monotheistic traditions, each profess belief in one God, but each differs in certain ways in conceiving that God. Thus in their very essence, these religions are not opposed to each other, but they differ dramatically in their interpretive traditions which nourish controversy and saw the seeds of conflict. Historicist tendencies to depict these monotheistic traditions – in terms of theology and history – as fundamentally opposed to each other have the characteristics of a self-fulfilling prophecy that hinders dynamic inter-relationship and negotiation between religions.

Democratic consolidation in a cosmopolitan society as Turkey’s is a formidable and long journey. ... more Democratic consolidation in a cosmopolitan society as Turkey’s is a formidable and long journey. There is no single, right path to democracy, and while facilitative factors such as historical experience may enable a smoother transition, practically many countries undergo problems, false starts, and reversals in their struggle for democracy. Liberal institutions can function most effectively in a democratic society and economic prosperity is positively correlated with political freedoms. Economic development should be subordinated to pursuit for liberal democracy.

Turkey’s flawed but functioning democracy has endured revolutions, illiberal movements, and military interventions. The country has successfully risen from the ashes of an empire and instituted reforms that brought a modern nation into life. Despite external influences, from great-power games in the Ottoman era to the prospect for EU membership in the republican era, most of the impetus for liberalization has come from within. What distinguished modern Turkey from autocratic regimes of the Middle East is not electoral majoritarianism that pre-conditioned a strict sequencing of public order and liberalization first, but the embodiment of democratic principles and citizenship rights into state-building from very early on. It is regulated, representative democracy after all that secures civil liberties, lives, and livelihoods.

This paper looks at the motivation behind competing claims over maritime delimitation between Gre... more This paper looks at the motivation behind competing claims over maritime delimitation between Greece and Turkey concerning the island of Kastellorizo as a potential crisis spot in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. The objective is to assess the legal basis of these claims, their implications for security, trade and economic development in the region. Russia’s annexation of Crimea and monopolization of energy supply routes to Europe has led energy consumers of the industrialized world finally to become serious about hydrocarbon alternatives. Viability of energy pipeline projects depends on the extent of EEZ delimitations in the region upon which the final status of Kastellorizo has a profound impact. The research finds that the power struggle over alternative energy supply routes between the Central Asia, Middle East, and Europe draw the attention of global and regional players to prospects for gas exploitation in the eastern Mediterranean. Kastellorizo has a pivotal position in this multi-dimensional conflict over exertion of political influence and control of energy routes.

The conflict over EEZ delimitation between Greece and Turkey is inextricably linked with long- standing confrontations over the Cyprus Problem. Rich reserves of recoverable natural gas resources in the Levant Basin, if translated into windfall profits, can be vital for Greece and Turkey that run large budget deficits. International law can contribute to peaceful settlement of the EEZ delimitation dispute over Kastellorizo, although priority should be given to multiparty negotiations that may involve Greek and Turkish Cypriots. Historical precedent on similar cases of dispute settlement highlights the necessity to take special geographical circumstances into account to find an equitable solution for all parties. This research finds that Kastellorizo may be entitled to an EEZ, the width of which should be coextensive with its 6-mile-wide Territorial Waters, based on the precedent of Anglo-French arbitration case.

Energy security and safe international shipping are of paramount importance to survival of the gl... more Energy security and safe international shipping are of paramount importance to survival of the global economy. This paper shows that the GCC states, as well as their Western allies, are capable of taking significant measures to alleviate the perceived threat from Iran to their security and economic welfare. Iran does possess significant asymmetric warfare capabilities, against which GCC states can and should take effective measures by bringing their diplomacies closer, increasing regional economic and social cooperation, and creating real capabilities for extended deterrence. In this regard, relations with oil-consuming Western countries also play a vital role for strengthening joint defence capabilities, thus making the GCC region a safer and economically more viable place for investment.

Perceptions and political behavior of the Syrian population must be well documented in order to understand the “reality” on the ground and the true nature of the problem to be resolved. This involves training and recruitment of local civil servants by NGOs and more intensive usage of local people as a “proxy for change” rather than the Syrian government or the politically intrigued UN. This bottom-up approach and stronger coordination with NGOs will also help to avoid a peacekeeping fiasco, as seen in “failed states” such as Afghanistan, following a future armistice.

ULUSAM, 2020

Turkish Energy Strategies and Politics Research Center, 2020

Energy Policy Turkey, 2019

Turkish Journal of Energy Policy, 2018

Cybersecurity is a vital component of combined operations in modern warfare. It can be used by st... more Cybersecurity is a vital component of combined operations in modern warfare. It can be used by states, armed groups, insurgents, and terrorists as a powerful tool to gain asymmetric advantage, impose demands, and subdue opponents. Nevertheless, notwithstanding cutting- edge capabilities that cyber space provides, like any other advanced technology, it cannot be a pure play option for warfare. It is highly unlikely that cyber attackers can breach a nuclear plant to trigger a disaster. As a force multiplier for kinetic power, however, it can be put to divide, dishearten, and disrupt an adversary’s will to fight, gather intelligence and trigger a crisis by subverting network defenses. Cyber attacks may be perceived as escalatory signals in a crisis setting and precipitate kinetic responses, or vice versa, laying clear the increasingly cross-domain character of military hostilities. Serious impact on a state’s critical infrastructure, economy, and reputation, even if non-lethal, may grant the right to invoke the U.N. Article 51 for self-defense. In the 21st century’s hybrid warfare, cyber domain will be a central part of conflicts and complement other domains for both states and non-state actors as armed groups use it to their advantage to dominate their adversaries. It requires more than just military hardware, but also training, public awareness, and cross-agency cooperation to survive in this new normal.