Edward Pohl | University of Arkansas (original) (raw)

Papers by Edward Pohl

INCOSE International Symposium

Smart Cities

The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation: Applications, Methodology, Technology

Emergency telecommunication infrastructure is essential for residents and emergency responders du... more Emergency telecommunication infrastructure is essential for residents and emergency responders during natural disasters to coordinate life-saving and life-preserving efforts. Ensuring resilience of the emergency telecommunication infrastructure is of critical importance for regions with an increased likelihood of natural disasters. We developed an integrated modeling framework for assessing emergency telecommunication systems. The framework used performance models to assess coverage and surge capabilities for a given system architecture. The performance models assess the telecom system value using a multiple objective decision analysis value model with stake-holder and technology performance measures. After constructing a life cycle cost model for emergency telecommunication systems, we conducted an illustrative value versus cost trade-off analysis using three alternative decision frames. The decision analysis framework allows for exploration of the system design tradespace so that ...

Systems Engineering, 2021

Increasing system complexity requires that engineers, systems analysts, and program managers use ... more Increasing system complexity requires that engineers, systems analysts, and program managers use comprehensive design methodologies to deliver affordable and resilient designs. One method is set‐based design (SBD), a product development and managerial process distinctly suited for developing complex systems under uncertainty. SBD simultaneously develops, analyzes, and matures numerous potential design sets, enabling the identification of high‐value, affordable, and resilient designs. Published SBD research is a rich source of both qualitative and quantitative methods. This research specifically focuses on quantitative SBD methods to apply a value of information (VOI) methodology enabling design convergence and selection. We build upon previous SBD research to enable design maturation and uncertainty reduction. Our methodology integrates design maturation and multiobjective VOI analysis into a comprehensive quantitative SBD process to guide system development from initial design concepts to the pre‐production design decision. In doing so, we also provide refinements and process improvements to existing quantitative SBD methods. We demonstrate our methodology with a model‐based UAV design case study using an integrated suite of system, value, and cost models. Our case study specifically focuses on the design maturation and model selection decisions enabling design space convergence. We compare our current results with those from a previous UAV case study, achieving a 41% reduction in required computation time for design space convergence. These results highlight the methodology's ability to reduce program risk and potential to improve SBD convergence efficiency.

IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 2021

System design is an exercise in sequential decisionmaking, with the objective of developing resil... more System design is an exercise in sequential decisionmaking, with the objective of developing resilient and affordable systems. Throughout the design process, engineering and program managers must balance several competing objectives, such as ensuring design feasibility, minimizing cost, schedule, and performance risk, while simultaneously achieving stakeholder value. Thus, engineering and program managers require design and analysis methods enabling complex and multiobjective design decisions under uncertainty. Unfortunately, there exists limited research providing quantitative methodologies specifically enabling program management decisions using quantitative set-based design. We, therefore, present a quantitative set maturation and uncertainty resolution decision methodology using value-focused multiobjective decision models and model-based engineering practices. This methodology assesses and quantifies uncertainty regarding stakeholder value, cost, requirements, and design maturity for each design set. These metrics facilitate the calculation of the program manager value, which when combined with design set feasibility entropy, enable tradeoff analysis informing design maturation and uncertainty resolution prioritization decisions. We develop and demonstrate our methodology using a model-based unmanned aerial vehicle case study implemented in the ModelCenter modeling environment. This methodology provides program managers an efficient, cost effective, and defensible approach to inform system design maturation and uncertainty resolution decisions enabling the development of resilient and affordable systems.

The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation: Applications, Methodology, Technology, 2019

The Engineered Resilient Systems research program seeks to improve decision making in the Analysi... more The Engineered Resilient Systems research program seeks to improve decision making in the Analysis of Alternatives process by leveraging model-based engineering (MBE) early in the design process to develop more resilient systems. Traditional tradespace exploration using point-based design often converges quickly to an initial baseline design concept with subsequent engineering changes to modify the design. However, this process can lead to significant cost growth if the initial concept is not able to meet requirements or if the revised design is not affordable. Enabled by MBE, set-based design (SBD) considers sets of all possible design concepts and down-selects design concepts to converge to a final design using insights into design trade-off analysis, modeling and simulation, and test data. Using a notional unmanned aerial vehicle case study with low-fidelity physics-based models and an open source Excel® add-in called SIPmath©, this research implements an integrated MBE trade-off...

Engineering Management Research, 2019

This paper surveys the literature on resilience, provides several definitions of resilience, and ... more This paper surveys the literature on resilience, provides several definitions of resilience, and proposes a new comprehensive definition for a resilient engineered system, which is: a system that is able to successfully complete its planned mission(s) in the face of disruption(s) (environmental or adversarial), and has capabilities allowing it to successfully complete future missions with evolving threats. This definition captures the subtle differences between resilience and a resilient engineered system. We further examine the terminology associated with resilience to understand the various resilient time-frames and use the terminology to propose a resilience cycle, which differentiates mission resilience (short term) and platform resilience (long term). We then provide insight into various resilience evaluation methodologies and discuss how understanding the full scope of resilience enable designers to better incorporate resilience into system design, decision makers to consider ...

Environment Systems and Decisions, 2019

The Department of Defense Engineered Resilient Systems (ERS) goes beyond the concept of resilienc... more The Department of Defense Engineered Resilient Systems (ERS) goes beyond the concept of resilience as a response to a disruption. The ERS project focuses on improving design agility and cost-effectiveness leading to improvements in systems analysis, development, testing, manufacturing, and fielding of mission-effective and adaptable systems. Point-Based Design (PBD) seeks to select a point as a design baseline and proceed into development. Our research uses Set-Based Design (SBD) for early concept evaluation of engineered systems as an alternative to PBD. SBD seeks to eliminate less cost-effective sets (in the value vs. cost tradespace) and focus on one or more remaining sets during early design. Our research develops a technique called Convergent Set-Based Design (SBD), a procedure for mathematical elimination and improvement of sets of designs. We developed Convergent SBD for the ERS program. Our research includes the capability to measure and quantify mission resilience using probability trees for all system performance measures. Convergent SBD uses dominance identification equations to compare statistical means for value and cost. The demonstration illustrates the effect of adding mission resilience in the design tradespace. Convergent SBD provides a foundational mathematical technique for eliminating less promising design sets and identifying the most promising design sets.

Smart cities are rapidly evolving concept-transforming urban developments in the 21st century. Sm... more Smart cities are rapidly evolving concept-transforming urban developments in the 21st century. Smart cities use advanced technologies and data analytics to improve the quality of life for their citizens, increase the efficiency of infrastructure and services, and promote sustainable economic growth. Smart cities integrate multiple domains, including transportation, energy, health, education, and governance, to create an interconnected and intelligent urban environment. Our research study methodology was a structured literature review using Web of Science and Google Scholar and ten smart city research questions. The research questions included smart city definitions, advantages, disadvantages, implementation challenges, funding, types of applications, quantitative techniques for analysis, and prioritization metrics. In addition, our study analyzes the implementation of smart city solutions in international contexts and proposes strategies to overcome implementation challenges. The integration of technology and data-driven solutions in smart cities has the potential to revolutionize urban living by providing citizens with personalized and accessible services. However, the implementation also presents challenges, including data privacy concerns, unequal access to technology, and the need for collaboration across private, public, and government sectors. This study provides insights into the current state and future prospects of smart cities and presents an analysis of the challenges and opportunities they present. In addition, we propose a concise definition for smart cities: “Smart cities use digital technologies, communication technologies, and data analytics to create an efficient and effective service environment that improves urban quality of life and promotes sustainability”. Smart cities represent a promising avenue for urban development. As cities continue to grow and face increasingly complex challenges, the integration of advanced technologies and data-driven solutions can help to create more sustainable communities.

Preference Mapping and Routing of Illicit Cross-Border Activity, 2022

The United States perimeter of 7,479 miles must be monitored for illicit cross-border activity su... more The United States perimeter of 7,479 miles must be monitored for illicit cross-border activity such as illegal migration, contraband, and threats to national security through these regions. In support of the Engineer Research and Development Center’s Institute for Systems Engineering Research, we conducted a Systems Engineering Study on Integrated Sensor Suites and developed an integrated sensor modeling framework to provide additions to a notional current architecture for a selected boundary region between U.S. ports of entry. This paper describes the Intruder Preference Model (IPM) used in this research to identify multiple potential intrusion routes using geographic information, a multiple objective value model for intruder preferences, and an optimal path algorithm for route selection. The study found that the IPM can provide insights routes more preferred by intruders for a selected boundary region. These routes can inform sensor architectures, which can help inform scenario simulations of intrusions.

Engineering Resilient Systems: Achieving Stakeholder Value Through Design Principles and System Operations, 2022

Engineering managers work with system designers, system operators, and stakeholders who value the... more Engineering managers work with system designers, system operators, and stakeholders who value the system's performance and seek to deliver stakeholder value. Engineering resilient systems is an emerging research field since all systems face future uncertainties including new missions, new requirements, unplanned environments, and unplanned events that cause disruptions during operation. The ability of a system to provide stakeholder value depends on the system design and the ability of the system operator to react to the disruption(s). A resilient design offers options to respond to new missions, environments, and disruptions through system automation or operator actions. The engineering resilience literature uses overlapping definitions. It does not adequately distinguish between resilient design principles and the means they provide for operators to respond to mission disruptions and the ability to modify the system for new missions. This article uses the engineered systems resilience literature to provide a clearer lexicon. It then proposes a framework, the principlesmeans-ends diagram, for engineering managers to communicate with stakeholders, operators, and designers about the benefits of engineered systems' resilience, the opportunities for designers to use resilience design principles to create more resilient designs, and the roles of the operators in achieving resilience during operations. We propose a principles-means-ends diagram for resilient engineered systems, which provides a holistic view for designers, operators, and stakeholders to visualize how their actions connect to others and encourages communication between them to create a more resilient engineered system.

Assessing Engineering Resilience for Systems with Multiple Performance Measures, 2019

Recently, efforts to model and assess a system's resilience to disruptions due to environmental a... more Recently, efforts to model and assess a system's resilience to disruptions due to environmental and adversarial threats have increased substantially. Researchers have investigated resilience in many disciplines, including sociology, psychology, computer networks, and engineering systems, to name a few. When assessing engineering system resilience, the resilience assessment typically considers a single performance measure, a disruption, a loss of performance, the time required to recover, or a combination of these elements. We define and use a resilient engineered system definition that separates system resilience into platform and mission resilience. Most complex systems have multiple performance measures; this research proposes using multiple objective decision analysis to assess system resilience for systems with multiple performance measures using two distinct methods. The first method quantifies platform resilience and includes resilience and other "ilities" directly in the value hierarchy, while the second method quantifies mission resilience and uses the "ilities" in the calculation of the expected mission performance for every performance measure in the value hierarchy. We illustrate the mission resilience method using a transportation systems-of-systems network with varying levels of resilience due to the level of connectivity and autonomy of the vehicles and platform resilience by using a notional military example. Our analysis found that it is necessary to quantify performance in context with specific mission(s) and scenario(s) under specific threat(s) and then use modeling and simulation to help determine the resilience of a system for a given set of conditions. The example demonstrates how incorporating system mission resilience can improve performance for some performance measures while negatively affecting others.

Incorporating Resilience in an Integrated Analysis of Alternatives, 2019

We develop an integrated analysis of alternatives framework with quantified cost and value-driven... more We develop an integrated analysis of alternatives framework with quantified cost and value-driven analysis to support affordability analysis and decision making. In an environment of resource scarcity, decision makers are under increasing pressure to develop solutions that deliver more value under tighter budget constraints, and are resilient, maintainable, and usable for new missions and scenarios. Our method contributes to current analysis of alternatives best practices to support affordability analysis by developing means to expand and explore the design space, extend service lifetime, and understand resilience tradeoffs in an integrated decision analysis model. We accomplish this goal by building upon established techniques of model-based engineering, tradespace exploration, and setbased design and introduce repeatable techniques of value-based mission resilience and iterative set-based design. In this research, our integrated analysis of alternatives framework is demonstrated using a 2015 squad enhancement portfolio of systems study.

Defining Resilience for Engineered Systems, 2019

Gulf Coast Port Selection Using Multiple-Objective Decision Analysis, 2019

In today's competitive global markets, ports play a vital role in global supply chain operations.... more In today's competitive global markets, ports play a vital role in global supply chain operations. A port selection model was developed to demonstrate the potential to aid shipping line companies with decisions to select the best ports in the U.S. Gulf Coast. Because port selection is complex, is dynamic, and includes multiple objectives, a multipleobjective decision analysis quantified the value of the various ports using industry data and an industry expert's knowledge. In addition, a corresponding cost model was developed using available cost data for each port. Monte Carlo simulation analyzed the uncertainties in the value and cost models. For the demonstration model scenario assumptions, the results show that the Houston port would be the best alternative for shipping lines in the Gulf Coast. The value model also identified opportunities for improvement for each port compared with the best West Coast port. The demonstration models show that port data exist to support the development of a multiple-objective decision analysis model and a cost model that can provide useful insights to port selection decision makers. Furthermore, these models can be easily tailored to support port selection in other regions by tailoring the objectives and measures to the decision-maker objectives.

Early Design Space Exploration with Model-Based System Engineering and Set-Based Design, 2018

Adequately exploring the tradespace in the early system design phase is important to determine th... more Adequately exploring the tradespace in the early system design phase is important to determine the best design concepts to pursue in the next life cycle stage. Tradespace exploration (TSE) often uses trade-off analysis. Set-based design (SBD) methods, compared to traditional point-based design, explore significantly more designs. An integrated framework with model-based system engineering (MBSE) and a life cycle cost model enables design evaluation in near real-time. This study proposes an early design phase SBD methodology and demonstrates how SBD enabled by an integrated framework with MBSE and life cycle cost provides an enhanced TSE that can inform system design requirements and help decision makers select high performing designs at an affordable cost. Specifically, this paper (1) provides an overview of TSE and SBD, (2) describes the Integrated Trade-off Analysis Framework, (3) describes a methodology to implement SBD in the early design phase, and (4) demonstrates the techniques using an unmanned aerial vehicle case study. We found that the Integrated Trade-off Analysis Framework informs requirement development based upon how the requirements affect the feasible tradespace. Additionally, the integrated framework that uses SBD better explores the design space compared to traditional methods by finding a larger set of feasible designs early in the design process.

Convergent set-based design for complex resilient systems, 2019

Demonstrating set-based design techniques: an unmanned aerial vehicle case study, 2020

The Engineered Resilient Systems research program seeks to improve decision making in the Analysi... more The Engineered Resilient Systems research program seeks to improve decision making in the Analysis of Alternatives process by leveraging model-based engineering (MBE) early in the design process to develop more resilient systems. Traditional tradespace exploration using point-based design often converges quickly to an initial baseline design concept with subsequent engineering changes to modify the design. However, this process can lead to significant cost growth if the initial concept is not able to meet requirements or if the revised design is not affordable. Enabled by MBE, set-based design (SBD) considers sets of all possible design concepts and down-selects design concepts to converge to a final design using insights into design trade-off analysis, modeling and simulation, and test data. Using a notional unmanned aerial vehicle case study with low-fidelity physics-based models and an open source ExcelÒ add-in called SIPmathÓ, this research implements an integrated MBE trade-off analytics framework that simultaneously generates numerous SBDs using parametric performance and cost models and evaluates the designs in the value and cost tradespace. In addition, this research explores incorporating resilience quantification and uncertainty into SBD trade-off analysis. Future research is needed to validate the use of SBD with low-fidelity models for tradespace exploration in early system design.

Smart Base Installations: Improving the Agile Development of Multidisciplinary Systems of Systems Projects Using Systems Engineering Technique, 2023

Communication complexity arises when managing large-scale Internet of Things projects that demand... more Communication complexity arises when managing large-scale Internet of Things projects that demand significant adaptation and change throughout the project lifecycle. Given limited and evolving stakeholder requirements, collaboration with three other organizations, and undetermined methods, this project adopts agile project management and development practices to create smart base systems for an U.S. Army installation. Applying agile methodologies to develop complex systems of systems with multiple stakeholders poses unique challenges. As agile management is a goal rather than a predefined process, developers must devise strategies to maintain the effectiveness of iterative development. To address these challenges, this study employs decision analysis and systems engineering principles, such as decision hierarchy, IDEF0, and swim lane diagram, to an agile project management framework. This study also documents and discusses how these artifacts change throughout a project lifecycle, and the benefits of maintaining them. We found that these methods facilitate the documentation of requirements, processes, ownership, and progress, enabling multiple groups to have a shared understanding and more effective progress reporting.

Set-based design: The state-of-practice and research opportunities, 2020

Increasing system complexity has provided the impetus to develop new and novel systems engineerin... more Increasing system complexity has provided the impetus to develop new and novel systems engineering methodologies. One of these methodologies is set-based design (SBD), a concurrent design methodology well suited for complex systems subject to significant uncertainty. Since the 1990s, numerous private, public, and defense sector design programs have successfully implemented SBD. However, concerns regarding SBD's complexity, tendency toward qualitative methods, and lack of quantitative tools have limited its use. To address these issues, our research surveys 122 refereed journal articles and conference papers to assess SBD's state-of-practice and identify relevant research opportunities. To accomplish these tasks, we perform a structured literature review to identify and assess relevant and influential research. We found that SBD's state-of-practice relies heavily upon decision and tradespace analysis with increasing emphasis on uncertainty modeling and MBSE. We found that the majority of SBD research consists of quantitative methodologies focusing on component and small system applications. We also found that complex system applications used mostly qualitative methodologies. We identify SBD research opportunities for requirements development, MBSE, uncertainty modeling, multiresolution modeling, adversarial analysis, and program management. Finally, we recommend the development of a comprehensive SBD methodology and toolkit, suited for complex system design across all stages of the product development life cycle.

INCOSE International Symposium

Smart Cities

The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation: Applications, Methodology, Technology

Systems Engineering, 2021

IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 2021

The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation: Applications, Methodology, Technology, 2019

Engineering Management Research, 2019

Environment Systems and Decisions, 2019

Preference Mapping and Routing of Illicit Cross-Border Activity, 2022

Engineering Resilient Systems: Achieving Stakeholder Value Through Design Principles and System Operations, 2022

Assessing Engineering Resilience for Systems with Multiple Performance Measures, 2019

Incorporating Resilience in an Integrated Analysis of Alternatives, 2019

Defining Resilience for Engineered Systems, 2019

Gulf Coast Port Selection Using Multiple-Objective Decision Analysis, 2019

Early Design Space Exploration with Model-Based System Engineering and Set-Based Design, 2018

Convergent set-based design for complex resilient systems, 2019

Demonstrating set-based design techniques: an unmanned aerial vehicle case study, 2020

The Engineered Resilient Systems research program seeks to improve decision making in the Analysi... more The Engineered Resilient Systems research program seeks to improve decision making in the Analysis of Alternatives process by leveraging model-based engineering (MBE) early in the design process to develop more resilient systems. Traditional tradespace exploration using point-based design often converges quickly to an initial baseline design concept with subsequent engineering changes to modify the design. However, this process can lead to significant cost growth if the initial concept is not able to meet requirements or if the revised design is not affordable. Enabled by MBE, set-based design (SBD) considers sets of all possible design concepts and down-selects design concepts to converge to a final design using insights into design trade-off analysis, modeling and simulation, and test data. Using a notional unmanned aerial vehicle case study with low-fidelity physics-based models and an open source ExcelÒ add-in called SIPmathÓ, this research implements an integrated MBE trade-off analytics framework that simultaneously generates numerous SBDs using parametric performance and cost models and evaluates the designs in the value and cost tradespace. In addition, this research explores incorporating resilience quantification and uncertainty into SBD trade-off analysis. Future research is needed to validate the use of SBD with low-fidelity models for tradespace exploration in early system design.

Smart Base Installations: Improving the Agile Development of Multidisciplinary Systems of Systems Projects Using Systems Engineering Technique, 2023

Set-based design: The state-of-practice and research opportunities, 2020

Systems Engineering Research, 2019

In recent years there has been an increased need for resilience in complex military and civilian ... more In recent years there has been an increased need for resilience in complex military and civilian systems due to evolving adversarial and environmental threats. Engineered Resilient Systems (ERS) is a Department of Defense (DoD) program focusing on the effective and efficient design and development of complex engineered systems. These complex systems need to be resilient to threats throughout their life cycle. However, most current engineering resilience literature focuses on systems with a single function and a single measure. Today’s systems are becoming more complex, with multiple functions and measures involving critical trade-offs during early life cycle stages. This paper develops criteria for a framework to incorporate resilience into DoD analysis of alternatives (AoA). Using the criteria, this paper creates a framework for defining and evaluating complex engineered systems that consider many missions, scenarios, uncertainties, functions, and measures. Lastly, using the criteria and the framework, the current literature is shown to have gaps for incorporating resilience into DoD AoAs.

27th Annual INCOSE, 2017

The DoD needs their systems to be resilient in the face of an ever changing world. To increase re... more The DoD needs their systems to be resilient in the face of an ever changing world. To
increase resilience in future systems the DoD has created a program called Engineered Resilient
Systems. Resilience can be broken down into two parts, mission and platform resilience. Mission
resilience is the ability of a system to repel, resist, absorb, and recover from environments and
threats that occur on planned missions. Platform resilience is the ability of a system platform to
adapt to new missions and new threats.
The University of Arkansas department of Industrial Engineering is working for the ERS
program researching resilience. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the DoD decided their
acquisition decisions need to focus on capability based planning instead of threat based planning.
A value-focused thinking multiple objective decision analysis model has been a useful tool for
capabilities based assessments. If all performance objectives can be categorized as mission or
platform resilience, this extra value above the threshold of the minimum performance can
provide mission and platform resilience. This information can be displayed in a value component
chart, a floating value component chart, and as a reliance value and opportunity chart. These
graphs allow decision makers to consider resilience in the acquisition decision making process.

Military Operations Research Journal, 2018