Antonio Tena Junguito | Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (original) (raw)

Papers by Antonio Tena Junguito

Revista de historia económica, Sep 1, 2000

El libro de Eva Pardos contiene, en su nudo central, uno de los tra-bajos de historia cuantitativ... more El libro de Eva Pardos contiene, en su nudo central, uno de los tra-bajos de historia cuantitativa espa-nola mas innovadores y rigurosos entre los publicados en esta ultima decada. En los parrafos siguientes se va a argumentar que a pesar de la calidad y rigor de su estudio la evi- ...

The Economic History Review, Jan 20, 2023

In this paper we present for the first-time quantitative evidence of the effect of U.S. power pol... more In this paper we present for the first-time quantitative evidence of the effect of U.S. power policy on the expansion of its export market from the late-19th century to the eve of World War II. U.S. imperial policies were expressed through annexation, dominion, and gunboat policies, as did other empires, and exports to these markets grew more than three times faster than the rest of the territories. Our most relevant contribution to the discussion that power plays a critical role in international trade is based on a new geographically extensive database with information on bilateral trade flows, market size, trade costs and variables that capture U.S. political and military power. We first estimate a gravity equation to see the relationship between our political variables and U.S exports and then we present causal evidence of the role of the colonies and protectorates in the expansion of U.S exports through an event study and the estimation of a generalized difference-indifferences model.

In order to understand Uruguayan long-run economic evolution it becomes crucial to interpret its ... more In order to understand Uruguayan long-run economic evolution it becomes crucial to interpret its export performance during the First Globalization. The lack of accuracy of official figures, especially official prices used, calls for an adjustment of Uruguayan exports series. We have used empirical evidence to test the accuracy of quantities and values of exports’ records, first, according to import partners’ records and, second, according to international market prices. Results show a general undervaluation of official export values during the period along with severe distortions in the registers caused by transit trade. We reconstructed new Uruguayan export f.o.b values and export price index, which present an export evolution more unstable and less dynamic than the one showed by its neighbor Argentina.

En este artículo se han pretendido analizar las causas del atraso argentino, comparando la experi... more En este artículo se han pretendido analizar las causas del atraso argentino, comparando la experiencia de este país con respecto a las de Australia y Canadá. Mediante la construcción de un índice de libertad económica, compuestos por variables que miden distorsiones macroeconómicas, y a partir de un análisis de cointegración y de causalidad, los resultados obtenidos muestran que, efectivamente, y tal como se sostiene en la historiografía argentina, los resultados de las políticas económicas implementadas han condicionado la evolución relativa y a largo plazo de este país.

Social Science Research Network, 2022

This article identifies and analyzes the determinants of the success of German exports to Argenti... more This article identifies and analyzes the determinants of the success of German exports to Argentina between 1875 and 1913, the fastest emerging market in South America at that time. New German technology and increasing productivity were complemented by banking and financial support for trade. We find that industrial sectors linked to German foreign banks (Auslandsbanken) in Argentina benefited from privileged access to financial support and hence exported more in comparison with other leading industrial countries. Our findings contribute to the literature on Latin American emerging markets and the role of finance in the development of foreign trade.

Project developed by Giovanni Federico (Università di Pisa) and Antonio Tena Junguito (Universida... more Project developed by Giovanni Federico (Università di Pisa) and Antonio Tena Junguito (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid). This data base outlines changes in world trade from 1800 to 2016. Dataset: Bermuda

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 1992

Inglaterra dispone de una cierta información sistemática del comercio por productos y países desd... more Inglaterra dispone de una cierta información sistemática del comercio por productos y países desde 1696. Es difícil fechar el comienzo de lo que es un registro sistemático de los flujos comerciales, pero se podría decir que Estados Unidos, Francia y Belgica sólo disponen de estadísticas sistemáticas desde 1821, 1827 y 1831, respectivamente. En estos mismos años publicaron sus estadísticas también Suecia y Holanda. Algunos años 12 (3) Holanda es el caso más evidente de inclusión de comercio de tránsito en los registros del comercio especial (ver última sección del cap. II). 102 (1) De los treinta y tres países que forman parte del test, en 1913 al menos dieciséis usaban el sistema de valores oficiales. En 1928 sólo Argentina, las Indias holandesas, Egipto, Rumanía y Uruguay, junto a España, mantenían este sistema.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2017

The period 1820-1870, commonly referred to as the 'lost decades', is widely regarded as the key m... more The period 1820-1870, commonly referred to as the 'lost decades', is widely regarded as the key moment in the opening of the gap between Latin America and the Unites States. We test this statement with a new export series and some tentative estimates of GDP trends. The overall performance of Latin American countries was quite good, although not outstanding. Mexico was hit by a foreign policy crisis, but the only real losers were the British and French colonies in the Caribbean. The emancipation of slaves caused a collapse in their exports, favoring other tropical countries, including Cuba and Brazil. Further South, independent countries such as Argentine and Chile increased their share of world trade. Overall, most of the divergence during the period 1820-1870 in the Americas was between tropical countries rather than between Latin America and North America.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Dec 1, 2017

Since Adam Smith, most economists have held the belief that trade fosters economic growth, althou... more Since Adam Smith, most economists have held the belief that trade fosters economic growth, although it has not been possible to establish a strong causal relationship. The results of growth regressions are, at best, mixed, and several historical studies have found a positive relationship between tariffs and economic growth in the nineteenth century. This paper adopts a different strategy. We look for cointegration between GDP per capita and openness for about thirty countries since 1830. About half return no cointegrationi.e. no relationship. The rest show mixed results, which change through time. An ordered probit model suggests that significantly positive relationships are more likely at low-tomiddle income levels.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Feb 1, 2017

The period 1820-1870, or 'lost decades', is widely regarded as the key moment in the opening of g... more The period 1820-1870, or 'lost decades', is widely regarded as the key moment in the opening of gap between Latin America and the United States. We test this statement with a new set of export series. We show that the performance of Latin American countries was quite good, although not outstanding. Mexico was hit by foreign policy crisis, but the only real basket case have been the British and French colonies in the Caribbean. The emancipation of slaves caused a collapse in their exports, favoring other tropical countries, including Cuba and Brazil. Further South, independent countries such as Argentine and Chile increased their share of world trade. In a nutshell, most of the divergence in the 1820-1870 in the Americas was between tropical countries rather than between Latin America and North America.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Jun 1, 2009

This paper revisits Bairoch's hypothesis that tariffs were positively associated with growth in t... more This paper revisits Bairoch's hypothesis that tariffs were positively associated with growth in the late 19th century, as confirmed recently by a new generation of quantitative studies (see O`Rourke (2000), Jacks (2006) and Clements-Williamson (2002, 2004)). This paper highlights the importance of the structure of protection in the relation between trade policy and growth and its potential growth-promoting impact. Evidence is based in a new data base on industrial tariffs for the 1870`s. First results, based on these findings, show that protection was only positive for a "rich club" if we include in this group New Settler countries which grew rapidly in the late 19th century. Leaving out these countries, which protected mainly for fiscal reasons, the evidence shows that more protection, indicated by total average and manufacture tariff average, implied more unskilled inefficient protection and less growth and this is especially true for the poor countries in the late 19th century.

Revista de historia económica, Sep 1, 2000

The Economic History Review, Jan 20, 2023

Social Science Research Network, 2022

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 1992

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2017

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Dec 1, 2017

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Feb 1, 2017

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Jun 1, 2009

To date, research on the economic history of Brazil during the nineteenth century has relied on o... more To date, research on the economic history of Brazil during the nineteenth century has relied on official foreign trade statistics, the accuracy of which has repeatedly been put into question. This paper provides insights into the accuracy of the official series by examining the accuracy of the export and import series for Brazil during the nineteenth century. We re-estimate the official import series using trading partner sources, and find that the official series was marginally under-valued during certain periods of the nineteenth century. Furthermore, we provide new upper- and lower-bound estimates of the export series by testing different assumptions regarding the size of the cif-fob factor adjustments. Finally, we introduce a new import price index for the period 1827-1913

Parallels are often drawn between the Great Recession of the past decade and the economic turmoil... more Parallels are often drawn between the Great Recession of the past decade and the economic turmoil of the interwar period. In terms of global trade, these comparisons are based on obsolete and incomplete data. This column re-estimates world trade since the beginning of the 19 th century using a new database. The effect of the Great Recession on trade growth is sizeable but fairly small compared with the joint effect of the two world wars and the Great Depression. However, the effects will become more and more comparable if the current trade stagnation continues.